AP Statistics - ASSIGNMENT - Fall 2014, Term 2 Ana Sokoli asokoli@daltonschool.kr Room #214 WELCOME Welcome to Term 2 AP Statistics! Congratulations for successfully completing Term 1. I hope you are now motivated more than ever to continue learning Statistics! Keep up the hard work! Here is a reminder of the course goals and the big picture. In AP Statistics, you are expected to learn: Skills To produce convincing oral and written statistical arguments, using appropriate terminology, in a variety of applied settings. When and how to use technology to aid them in solving statistical problems Knowledge Essential techniques for producing data (surveys, experiments, observational studies), analyzing data (graphical & numerical summaries), modeling data (probability, random variables, sampling distributions), and drawing conclusions from data (inference procedures confidence intervals and significance tests) Habits of mind To become critical consumers of published statistical results by heightening their awareness of ways in which statistics can be improperly used to mislead, confuse, or distort the truth. Below are the four sections AP Statistics Course consists of: I. Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns (20% 30%) II. Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study (10% 15%) III. Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation (20% 30%) IV. Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypothesis (30%-40%)
INTEREST PACKET Term 2 Introduction In Term 1 we covered most of Section I of the course Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2. Moving forward in Term 2 we are going to complete the Exploring Data Section with Chapter 3 and move on with Sampling and Experimentation section in Chapter 4: Design Studies. Topic Overview Describing Relationships: Scatterplots, Correlation and Least-Squared Regression Designing Studies: Sampling and Surveys, Experiments, Using Studies Wisely Essential Questions How can we describe the relationship between two quantitative variables? How can we design studies: sampling and surveying, performing experiments and how to use studies wisely. Skills List Exploring bivariate data 12.ED.14. Analyzing patterns in scatterplots 12.ED.15. Correlation and linearity 12.ED.16. Least-squares regression line 12.ED.17. Residual plots, outliers and influential points 12.ED.18. Transformations to achieve linearity: logarithmic and power transformations Exploring categorical data 12.ED.19. Frequency tables and bar charts 12.ED.20. Marginal and joint frequencies for two-way tables 12.ED.21. Conditional relative frequencies and association 12.ED.22. Comparing distributions using bar charts 12. SE. Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study (10% 15%) Data must be collected according to a well-developed plan if valid information on a conjecture is to be obtained. This plan includes clarifying the question and deciding upon a method of data collection and analysis. Overview of methods of data collection 12.SE.1. Census 12.SE.2. Sample survey 12.SE.3. Experiment 12.SE.4. Observational study Planning and conducting surveys 12.SE.5. Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted survey 12.SE.6. Populations, samples and random selection 12.SE.7. Sources of bias in sampling and surveys 12.SE.8. Sampling methods, including simple random sampling, stratified random sampling and
cluster sampling Planning and conducting experiments 12.SE.9. Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted experiment 12.SE.10. Treatments, control groups, experimental units, random assignments and replication 12.SE.11. Sources of bias and confounding, including placebo effect and blinding 12.SE.12. Completely randomized design 12.SE.13. Randomized block design, including matched pairs design Generalizability 12.SE.14. Generalizing the results and types of conclusions that can be drawn from observational studies, experiments and surveys Reference Materials Textbook: The Practice of Statistics 7 th ed by Starnes, Tabor, Yates and Moore TI83/89 Graphing Calculator Reference Materials The Practice of Statistics 7 th ed by Starnes, Tabor, Yates and Moore In-class packets and handouts
LESSON OVERVIEW In Term 2 there will be a total of 20 classes. Chapter 3 Describing Relationships < Day 1> Chapter 3.1 PART I: Explanatory and response variables, displaying relationships: scatterplots, describing scatterplots Identify explanatory and response variables in situations where one variable helps to explain or influences the other. Make a scatterplot to display the relationship between two quantitative variables. Describe the direction, form, and strength of a relationship displayed in a scatterplot and recognize outliers in a scatterplot. Activity CSI Stats: The Case of the Missing Cookies HW page 159 # 1-13 odd + and/or packet handed in class < Day 2> Chapter 3.1PART II: Measuring linear association: correlation, facts about correlation Interpret the correlation. Understand the basic properties of correlation, including how the correlation is influenced by outliers. Use technology to calculate correlation. Explain why association does not imply causation. Activity Correlation and Regression Applet Activity Chapter 3.1 Quiz Group Competition HW page 161 # 14-18 all + 21-33 odd + and/or packet handed in class < Day 3> Chapter 3.2 PART I: Least-squares regression, interpreting a regression line, prediction, residuals Interpret the slope and y intercept of a least-squares regression line. Use the least-squares regression line to predict y for a given x. Explain the dangers of extrapolation. Calculate and interpret residuals. Activity Investing Properties of the least-square regression line Activity Technology Corner: Least-Square Regression Lines on the Calculator HW page 193 # 27-32 all + 35,37, 39, 41, 45 + and/or packet handed in class < Day 4> Chapter 3.2 PART II: Calculating the equation of the least-squares regression line, determining whether a linear model is appropriate: residual plots Explain the concept of least squares. Determine the equation of a least-squares regression line using technology. Construct and interpret residual plots to assess if a linear model is appropriate.
HW page 193 # 43, 47, 49, 51 + and/or packet handed in class < Day 5> Chapter 3.2 PART III: How well the line fits the data: the role of s and r2 in regression Interpret the standard deviation of the residuals and and use these values to assess how well the least-squares regression line models the relationship between two variables. HW page 193 # 48, 50, 55, 58 + and/or packet handed in class < Day 6> Chapter 3.2 PART IV: Interpreting computer regression output, regression to the mean, correlation and regression wisdom Determine the equation of a least-squares regression line using computer output. Describe how the slope, y intercept, standard deviation of the residuals, and are influenced by outliers. Find the slope and y intercept of the least-squares regression line from the means and standard deviations of x and y and their correlation. HW page 195 # 59, 61, 63, 65, 69, 71-78 + and/or packet handed in class < Day 7> Chapter Review Practice Review Problems and Past AP Exam Practice Tests FRAPPY Case Closed: How Faithful Is Old Faithful Activity Chapter 3 Quiz Group Competition HW Chapter 3 Review Exercises + and/or packet handed in class < Day 8> Chapter 3 Test Assignment: Project 1- Investigating Relationships Chapter 4 Designing Studies < Day 9> Chapter 4.1 PART I: Introduction, The Idea of a Sample Survey, How to Sample Badly, How to Sample Well: Simple Random Sampling Identify the population and sample in a statistical study. Identify voluntary response samples and convenience samples. Explain how these sampling methods can lead to bias. Describe how to obtain a random sample using slips of paper, technology, or a table of random digits. Activity Case study: Can magnets help reduce pain? Activity See no evil, hear no evil? HW page 229 # 1-11 all odd + Activity Technology Corner (Choosing an SRS page 215) +and/or packet handed in class
< Day 10> Chapter 4.1 PART II: Other Random Sampling Method Distinguish a simple random sample from a stratified random sample or cluster sample. Give the advantages and disadvantages of each sampling method. Activity Who wrote the federalist paper &/or Sampling Sunflowers HW page 229 # 13-25 all odd + and/or packet handed in class < Day 11> Chapter 4.1 PART III: Inference for Sampling, Sample Surveys: What Can Go Wrong? Explain how undercoverage, nonresponse, question wording, and other aspects of a sample survey can lead to bias. Activity Who wrote the federalist paper &/or Sampling Sunflowers HW page 232 # 27-35 all odd + and/or packet handed in class < Day 12> Chapter 4.2 PART I: Observational Study versus Experiment, The Language of Experiments Distinguish between an observational study and an experiment. Explain the concept of confounding and how it limits the ability to make cause-and-effect conclusions. HW page 259 # 37-42 all, 45-55 all odd + and/or packet handed in class < Day 13> Chapter 4.2 PART II: How to Experiment Badly, How to Experiment Well, Completely Randomized Designs Identify the experimental units, explanatory and response variables, and treatments. Explain the purpose of comparison, random assignment, control, and replication in an experiment. Describe a completely randomized design for an experiment, including how to randomly assign treatments using slips of paper, technology, or a table of random digits. HW page 260 # 57-65 all odd + and/or packet handed in class < Day 14> Chapter 4.2 PART III: Experiments: What Can Go Wrong? Inference for Experiments Describe the placebo effect and the purpose of blinding in an experiment. Interpret the meaning of statistically significant in the context of an experiment. Activity Distracting Driving HW page 261 # 67-73 all odd + and/or packet handed in class < Day 15> Chapter 4.2 PART IV: Blocking Explain the purpose of blocking in an experiment. Describe a randomized block design or a matched pairs design for an experiment. Activity Distracting Driving HW page 262 # 75-81, 85 all odd + and/or packet handed in class
< Day 16> Chapter 4.3 PART I: Scope of Inference, The Challenges of Establishing Causation Describe the scope of inference that is appropriate in a statistical study. Activity Response Bias HW page 273 # 83, 87-94, 97-104 + and/or packet handed in class < Day 17> Chapter 4.3 PART II: Data Ethic Evaluate whether a statistical study has been carried out in an ethical manner. HW Chapter 4 Review Exercises + and/or packet handed in class < Day 18> Chapter 4 Review Review FRAPPY HW AP Statistics Sample Test Assignment: Project 2 < Day 19> Chapter 4 Test HW Case Closed: Can Magnets Help Reduce Pain? < Day 20> Projects Students will present any Extra Credit Projects.
ASSESSMENT Term 2 Grading Rubric Group work and Participation 15% Projects: 20% POP Quizzes 20% Chapter Quiz 15% Mid-Year Exam- 30% Description and Assessment Rubric Group work and in class Participation: Students will be graded on Group Work and in class Participation. 0-3 points for coming to class prepared and the other 2 points for in-class and with the groups participation and appropriate behavior. Chapter Projects: There will be a total of 2 projects. Project and rubric will be handed in class. POP Quizzes Since there is no homework check, there will be POP Quizzes on one of the previous night homework. Work needs to be shown for each problem. Incorrect answers but well-written work with simple calculation mistakes will earn partial credit. Chapter Quiz: There will be a Chapter 3 Quiz at the end of Chapter 3 Mid-Year Exam There will be a cumulative Chapter 1-4 Mid-Year Exam. Work needs to be shown for each problem. Incorrect answers but well-written work with simple calculation mistakes will earn partial credit. We will follow AP exam grading rubric. PROGRESS MONITOR Use below table to keep track of your progress throughout the school year. Accomplishment Table for TERM 2 Assessment Title Weight Due Date Points Earned / Points Possible Group Work and Participation 15% Every Class Project 1-2 20% To be determined POP Quizzes 20% Expect one Every Class Chapter 3 Quiz 15% At the end of Chapter 3 Mid-Year Exam 30% At the end of Term 2 Overall ***Exact due dates will be announced in classs Please check the 12 th grade calendar for posted dates.