The Diversity Economy: Harnessing Multiculturalism for Economic Vitality Sheila A. Martin, Director Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies/Population Research Center September 14, 2010 Regional Demographic Trends 1
Population Growth Population percent change by decade: US, Oregon, PDX MSA (7-county) Percent Change 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% PDX Growth OR Growth USA Growth Source: Portland State University Population Research Center; U.S. Census Bureau; Washington State Office of Financial Management Population Growth Population in Seven County Region, 1930-2009 2,500,000 2,217,325 2,000,000 1,927,836 Population 1,500,000 1,000,000 766,068 881,961 1,081,978 1,341,550 1,523,741 500,000 500,011 553,215 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, Washington State Office of Financial Management 2
Population Distribution Population Distribution by County, 1930-2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 Multnomah Washington Clark Clackamas Yamhill Columbia Skamania Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, Washington State Office of Financial Management Forecast Forecasted Population by County, 2000-2030 900,000 Forecasted Population 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Multnomah Washington Clark Clackamas Yamhill Columbia Skamania Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, Washington State Office of Financial Management 3
Migration Population growth = Births - Deaths + Migration Components 2000-2009 Population Growth by Net Migration and Natural Increase, 2000-2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 71.8% 77.9% 40.5% 44.6% 56.2% 68.2% 60.3% Net Migration, 2000-2009 Natural Increase, 2000-2009 30% 20% 10% 28.2% 22.1% 59.5% 55.4% 43.8% 31.8% 39.7% 0% Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, Washington State Office of Financial Management 4
Population Growth and Unemployment Migration International and Domestic Migration by County, 2000-2008 50,000 46,547 40,000 30,000 26,261 29,396 22,456 23,147 Net International Migration 20,000 10,000 0 6,737 86 4,758 10,449 7,270 2,288 31 708 Net Domestic Migration -10,000-5,246 Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, Washington State Office of Financial Management 5
Where do people come from? Domestic Origin Place of Birth Percent All USA 86.4% OR 39.8% WA 10.8% CA 10.7% IL 1.6% NY 1.5% TX 1.5% ID 1.2% MN 1.2% MI 1.0% CO 0.9% Other USA 16.1% International Origin Place of Birth Percent All Foreign Born 13.6% Mexico 3.8% Vietnam 0.9% Korea 0.7% Ukraine 0.7% Canada 0.6% China 0.5% Philippines 0.5% India 0.5% Germany 0.4% Russia 0.4% All other non-usa 4.6% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey. 2005-2007 PUMS data Race and ethnicity Minorities as a Percent of the Region s Population, 1990-2008 12% 10.5% 10% 8% 6.9% 6% 4% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 5.8% 4.6% 3.5% 3.4% 1990 2000 2008 2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0% Black Native American Asian Hispanic 6
Languages Spoken among English Language Learners PPS 2009 Spanish Vietnamese Somali Cantonese/Chinese/ Mandarin Russian Maay-Maay Chuuukese Burmese Arabic Oromo Source: PPS, English Language Learner Department Other Who gets left behind? Oregon s Graduation Gap 2008-2009 All students Asian/Pacific Islander Native American/Alaskan Native African American 51.70% 47.70% 66.20% 78.50% Percent of all Oregon students who graduate from high school with a regular diploma in four years Hispanic White Multi-Ethnic Unknown 52.60% 70.10% 61.80% 49.30% Source: Oregon Department of Education 7
Education= economic success Source: US Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey Washington and Multnomah counties lead educational attainment Source: US Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey 8
Age structure and Migration Regional Economy 9
Total Nonfarm Employment Portland MSA 1,100,000 Over 100K jobs lost since Nov. of 2007 1,050,000 1,052,500 1,000,000 950,000 948,200 900,000 850,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Oregon Employment Department, January 2004-July 2019. Not Seasonally adjusted. Multnomah County Jobs 470,000 460,000 464,400 450,000 440,000 430,000 420,000 410,000 417,800 400,000 390,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Oregon Employment Department, January 2004-July2010. Not seasonally adjusted. 10
Persistent Unemployment Industry Employment Growth % increase in one year, November 2009 and July 2010 Not all industries are equally affected Health care and social assistance -0.4% Educational services -0.5% -3.0% Retail trade -0.4% -4.3% High Tech Mfg -1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Nov. 2009 July 2010-4.6% Financial activities -3.0% -8.5% Manufacturing -1.8% -15.8% Construction -7.7% Source: Oregon Employment Department Portland MSA Nonfarm Employment, November 2008-November 2009. 11
Foreclosures came later than other regions Foreclosure Activity in Multnomah County, May 2007 October 2009 Source: Realtytrac data on Preforeclosures and Bank Reversions in the Portland MSA, May 2007-October 2009 What does Prosperity mean? 12
Income lags other Regions Greater Portland-Vancouver Indicators Project 13
Results teams Education Civic Engagement & Connection Housing & Communities Access & Mobility Regional Indicator Dialogues Economic Opportunity Arts, Culture, Creativity Healthy Natural Environment Healthy People The Self-Sufficiency Standard Multnomah County, Oregon $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $28,254 ($13.38) $32,360 ($15.32) $38,714 ($9.17/hr per adult) $20,000 $10,000 $17,491 ($8.28/hr) FPL: $11,201 FPL: $14,840 FPL: $17,346 FPL: $21,834 $0 Adult Adult + Preschooler Adult + Preschooler + Schoolage Two Adult + Preschooler + Schoolage Source: Diana M. Pearce, The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Oregon, 2008 14
Better education alleviates poverty Percent of Households Below the Self-Sufficiency Standard by Gender and Educational Attainment: Oregon 2005-2007 Source: American Community Survey 2005-2007, PUMS data The impact of education varies 100% 90% Minority Female Minority Male White (non-latino) Female White (non-latino) Male 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 76% 64% 55% 36% 59% 49% 38% 26% 46% 36% 32% 22% Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associate's degree 28% 20% 14% 11% Bachelor's degree or higher Source: American Community Survey 2005-2007, PUMS data 15
There are still jobs available Source: Oregon Employment Department What will improve our chances? State and student share of College Expenses (Source of OUS Revenue per student) Source: Tuition in the Oregon University System. Oregon University Service Issue Brief, 2009. http://www.ous.edu/about/legnote09/ib.php 16
Who will invent the new economy? New ideas form the basis for new businesses Patents per 10,000 employees, Portland and Comparator MSAs, 2006 Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, Cluster mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School, 2006. Who will launch independent businesses? Non-Employer Businesses per 1000 Population, Portland and Comparator MSAs, 2008 Non-Employer Businesses per 1000 Population 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 59.8 65.7 73.2 73.7 81.2 67.9 63.1 67.0 71.6 79.6 70.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Non-Employer Statistics Source: U.S. Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses Tabulations by Enterprise Size, 2006. County Business Patterns 17
Are we losing our entrepreneurial side? Non-Employer Businesses per 1,000 Population Non-Employer Businesses per 1,000 Population, Portland MSA and 80.0 Average of Comparator MSAs, 2003-2008 73.5 71.5 71.3 70.5 69.0 70.0 66.3 62.6 70.4 67.9 67.4 67.9 65.7 60.0 63.0 60.9 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Comparator MSA Average Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "Non-Employer Statistics" and "Annual Estimates of the Population of Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas" data sets Trends that could make or break us 1 million new people? Or more? Who will they be? What skills will they bring? How do we engage them? Can we reinvent our economy and still preserve what s important about our place? 18
A new era of engagement? Inviting new voices 19
We want your input! Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies www.pdx.edu/ims/ Population Research Center www.pdx.edu/prc/ Metropolitan Knowledge Network Reseach.mkn.pdx.edu Greater Portland Vancouver Indicators project www.pdx.edu/ims/indicators 20