ECO 202 Dr. Steve DeLoach office:336.278.5943 home:919.942.2372 deloach@elon.edu COURSE OUTLINE & PROBLEMS EVALUATION SURVEY FOR RULES DATA SET RULES & OUTLINE MIDTERM EXAM FINAL EXAM I. PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The purpose of this course is to introduce the fundamentals of statistical analysis, as applied to the special issues in business and economics, in order to answer the following question: How can we confidently describe or discover useful information? II. THE LOGIC OF STATISTICS First of all, we need to realize that our ultimate goal of discovering truth is futile! It is not practical to think that we will ever be able to describe with 100% accuracy various characteristics of the population. It is simply not feasible to ask everyone. So, we try to estimate these characteristics by SAMPLING a smaller, more manageable portion of whole. This creates difficulties. Step one is learning to collect and DESCRIBE information about a sample. This provides us with our ESTIMATES (best guess) of the truth. The problem is, we do not know how accurate we are. The 2nd step is to carefully produce measures of our CONFIDENCE in our initial estimates. This is what we refer to as INFERENTIAL STATISTICS. Between steps one and two, we to develop the theory which allows us to make these latter inferences. The theory behind this is based on the concepts of PROBABILITY. In general, this means addressing the question What's the probability that our sample is not a very good representation of the population at large? III. GENERAL PLAN FOR THE COURSE This is an applied course. As such, every successful student will be able to perform and interpret a variety of basic statistical techniques, as might be encountered in the real world. To this end, extensive use of modern computer software is requisite. All of the analysis in this course can be effectively handled by Excel for Windows. This use of spreadsheets like Excel, Quattro Pro and Lotus 1-2-3 throughout the business community is an http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/index.htm (1 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:05 PM]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY everyday event. As we conquer new conceptual material, we will typically follow these steps: (1) I will introduce you to the purpose/question we are dealing with; (2) we will develop the appropriate statistical methodology in order to answer the question; (3) we will do an example together in class to practice applying the methodology; (4) we will discuss the interpretation of the results and its implications; (5) finally, you will apply the methodology outside of class in some sort of homework assignment. These assignments may be problems out of the textbook, or they may be portions of the two papers you will produce during the semester. Since the goal of the course is to get you used to thinking with numbers, I will consistently emphasize the meaning of the results. As a result, I place a great deal of weight on writing. It is not enough to "get the answer." That numerical answer is meaningless unless you can give meaning to it. IV. INTELLECTUAL GOALS 1. Attain an understanding the formal research process: Intellectually, we have been following the scientific method of observation, hypothesis, and testing of hypothesis since we were born. The main difference is that statistics is all about formalizing that process so that it is of use to more than one person at a time. 2. Self-directed research: An educated person is one who can move beyond simply being able to perform tasks at the request of your superior. An educated person can take initiative, and follow through on projects. This is not innate, however. This is a skill, like anything else, which you have to learn. Throughout this semester, you will slowly begin to do this. 3. Begin to cross the bridge between lower and upper-level division courses: The key to becoming an educated person is critical thinking (reasoned, reflective thinking using appropriate methods and standards of evaluation for the express purpose of forming a conclusion regarding what to believe). The process of critical thinking involves, not only good logic and understanding of the world around you, but also evaluation. Statistics is an essential ingredient of the evaluation process. Not only will you be able to conduct statistical research, but you will be able to read and interpret results of other people s research. http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/index.htm (2 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:05 PM]
ECO 202 Dr. Steve DeLoach office:336.278.5943 home:919.942.2372 deloach@elon.edu COURSE OUTLINE & PROBLEMS EVALUATION SURVEY FOR RULES DATA SET TEXTBOOK Essentials of statistics for business and economics, Anderson, Sweeney and Williams (2nd edition) COURSE OUTLINE I. Descriptive Statistics Ch. 1 sections 1-5, Ch. 7, section 7 Ch. 2 sections 1,2, 4 Ch. 3 sections 1-5 DESCRIPTIVE PAPER due Sept 18 RULES & OUTLINE MIDTERM EXAM FINAL EXAM II. Probability Ch. 4 sections 1-5 III. Probability Distributions Ch. 5 sections 1-4 Ch. 6 sections 1-3 IV. Sampling Distributions Ch. 7 sections 1-6 IV. Estimation Ch. 8 sections 1-4 Problems Problems MIDTERM EXAM Friday October 6 : Topic : Data in Excel : Section I http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/outline00.htm (1 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:06 PM]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY V. Hypothesis Testing Ch. 9 sections 1-6 Ch. 10 sections 1-3 Ch. 11 sections 1-3 VI. Regression Ch. 12 sections 1-9 : Section II FINAL EXAMS 9:20 am class: Monday, Dec. 11 @ 8:00-11:00 10:40 am class: Saturday, Dec. 9 @ 11:30-2:30 Changes in final Exam times/dates are not allowed except with permission by the Dean! http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/outline00.htm (2 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:06 PM]
ECO 202 Dr. Steve DeLoach office:336.278.5943 home:919.942.2372 deloach@elon.edu COURSE OUTLINE & PROBLEMS EVALUATION SURVEY FOR RULES DATA SET RULES & OUTLINE MIDTERM EXAM FINAL EXAM EVALUATION 1. In-Class Exams 35% - Midterm exam 15% and Final exam 20% The in-class exams will involve both simple calculations, and essay-style questions which get at the meaning of the results. 2. Papers 35% There are two papers. The first is a paper in which you get used to using statistical measures, tables and graphs in order to describe the data. This first paper is worth 10%. The second paper is where you choose your topic and collect, describe and make inferences about your data in order to come to some conclusion about your research question. This project serves as a capstone for the course and is worth 25% of your final grade. 3. Homework/in-class assignments 20% For the most part, these involve problems out of the book. However, the first 2 sections of your term paper will count as homework assignments. They are designed to teach the rudiments of statistical methods. Often, these will be worked on in class, taking the form of group quizzes, etc... They are generally math problems. 4. Participation and Attendance 10% Daily attendance and participation is expected. Since much of the time spent in class involves active problem-solving in small groups, your physical and mental attendance is mandatory. INTELLECTUAL HONOR AND CHARACTER I expect that each and every one of you values learning. After all, that is why we are all at this institution. As a result, I expect you to act in ways that reflect those values. This means that http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/evel00.htm (1 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:06 PM]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I expect you to uphold the Elon College Honor Code. Honorable behavior is as important when working on a little 5-point problem set done in class as it is for exams and papers. I expect assignments to be completed in a timely manner. Any assignment turned in late will be accepted with penalty. Generally, I will deduct the equivalent of an entire letter grade for each day it's late. I expect you to regularly attend class. And I don't just mean that your butt is in a chair every Tuesday and Thursday. It means that you engage yourselves in the intellectual activity that takes place in this course both inside and outside of class. Finally, have respect for me as well as your peers. Chronic tardiness, getting up and walking out of class during discussions doesn't cut it. Everyday, we will spend the first part of the class introducing new concept. After that, we will practice and apply those concepts in the form of a problem or two. This provides a natural opportunity to run to the restroom if needed. I see no reason why you should chronically interrupt the class by moving around while I we are learning new material. http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/evel00.htm (2 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:06 PM]
ECO 202 Dr. Steve DeLoach office:336.278.5943 home:919.942.2372 deloach@elon.edu COURSE OUTLINE & PROBLEMS EVALUATION SURVEY FOR Disclaimer Please fill out the following survey. This survey will be used only for the purposes of in-class examples for Economics 202, Fall 2000. The purpose is to (1) get acquainted with surveys and data collection; (2) uncover some standard demographics of you and your peers here at Elon College; (3) provide data to be used in class as examples and; (4) to provide interesting data for your first paper assignment on "Descriptive data". RULES DATA SET RULES & OUTLINE MIDTERM EXAM All responses are completely anonymous. No other persons outside DeLoach s Statistics classes will have access to this data. Your responses can in no way be used for any other purposes except for those stated here. Thank you, Steve DeLoach 1. 2. 3. Please circle the appropriate answer. Do not circle more than one answer. Gender: M F Current College GPA: <2.0 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.5 >3.5 FINAL EXAM 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. What is your parents combined estimated annual income? <50,000 51,000-100,000 101,000-150,000 151,000-200,000 >200,000 Do you belong to a Greek organization? Y N Do you live on campus? Y N Do you have a job? Y N Do you have a credit card? Y N Do your parents give you money during the semester for living expenses, beyond tuition, books or housing? Y N http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/survey00.htm (1 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:07 PM]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10. 11. 12. 13. How much do you typically spend per WEEK on: groceries $ eating out $ alcohol (not including at a bar) $ entertainment ("going out") $ How much do you typically spend per MONTH on: clothes $ school supplies (after text books) $ CDs, videos, tapes..$ general household supplies (medicine, toiletries, cleaning stuff...) $ How many times per MONTH do you: "go out" with friends date go to the mall exercise go home road trip (not "home") How much cash do you typically withdrawal per week? $ http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/survey00.htm (2 of 2) [8/24/2000 5:58:07 PM]
ECO 202 Dr. Steve DeLoach office:336.278.5943 home:919.942.2372 deloach@elon.edu COURSE OUTLINE & PROBLEMS EVALUATION SURVEY FOR RULES DATA SET : Patterns of Expenditures among Business and Economics Majors The central question to be addressed in this paper is "Do all business and economics majors spend alike?" What characteristics of students seem to lead to divergent spending patterns? Specifically, you will look at the difference (if any) between Males and Females. Additional characteristics that will be considered include whether a student has a credit card or not, lives on of off campus and their GPA. NUTS & BOLTS The body of the paper should specifically address/contain the following: (a) Provide 3 PIE charts: Male/Female, Male s spending by category and RULES & OUTLINE Female s spending by category. MIDTERM EXAM FINAL EXAM (b) Create 4 PIVOT TABLES relating: Male/Female with (1) Credit/No Credit; (2) On/Off Campus; (3) GPA group; and (4) Job/No Job. (c) Create 6 HISTOGRAMS: (1) Male Weekly Spending; (2) Female Weekly Spending; (3) On Campus Weekly Spending; (4) Off-Campus Weekly Spending; (5) Credit Card Holder s Weekly Sending; and (6) Non-Credit Card Holder s Weekly Spending. (d) Find the Mean, Median, Sample Variance and Standard Deviation, and Coefficient of Variation of Weekly Spending for Males, Females, the GPA groups, On and Off-Campus Residents, Job and No-Job Holders and Credit and Non-Credit Card Holders. (e) Given your findings, formulate a possible explanation that could explain the observed differences in Weekly Spending in the School of business. Be sure that your explanation coincides with the statistics that you have calculated. WRITTEN COMPONENTS http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/paper100.htm (1 of 3) [8/24/2000 5:58:07 PM]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY You will be graded on the appropriateness of your data presentation (Graphs, Tables and Summary Statistics). More importantly, you will be graded on you explanation and interpretation of the statistical properties of the data. MEMO *Note on Writing Style: This is a research report. As you are the researcher into this topic. One, you are writing this to a general audience - not just me! Two, you are supposed to be professional and unbiased - use "third person passive voice"; not "I did this, I did that..." Three, you have not proven anything. You have not even tested anything. Thus, you cannot say, "X proves Y", etc... The most you can do is speculate about possible causes of the differences you see. At this point, there is nothing to prove your theories; they are simply one of many possible explanations that one might propose. In addition to the paper (below), type up a memo addressed to "the boss" of a local marketing research firm to be handed in with the paper. This memo should summarize the findings in the paper, without going into the "statistics" of it all. Think of this as a "memo to the boss", who does not have time to read through the whole paper, but wants to know the findings and what they might mean for area businesses. Do not attempt to write this until AFTER your paper is completed. RESEARCH REPORT I. Brief Introduction (this part will be a bit "boring" since we are all doing the same paper. Normally, you would "introduce" your topic and the issues you hope to shed light upon. Keep this to short - less than a page!) II. Body: the Statistics (this includes not only the "numbers" and "charts" but most importantly, a discussion of the numbers and charts - this will be several written pages. You do not want to go into excruciating detail about every little number. Instead, you want to refer the reader to tables and charts, and explain what the numbers there are telling us about the topic.) III. Conclusion (your conclusion should specifically address part (e) above) http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/paper100.htm (2 of 3) [8/24/2000 5:58:07 PM]
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ECO 202 Dr. Steve DeLoach office:336.278.5943 home:919.942.2372 deloach@elon.edu COURSE OUTLINE & PROBLEMS RULES AND REGULATIONS EVALUATION SURVEY FOR RULES DATA SET RULES & OUTLINE Scope The paper must involve a comparison of two different samples. That is, whatever the topic, it must allow you to be able to draw conclusions with regard to 2 samples, including numerical data and categorical data. Your paper consists of a two questions. The first question is of the " is the of two samples equal?" while the secondary question is " and what determines the?" The questions must be ones in which the dependent variable (primary variable) can be expressed numerically. MIDTERM EXAM FINAL EXAM For example: "Do men and women earn the same wage/salary in a given field?" wages, measured in $, is numeric and what factors affect those wages? "Do the NASDAQ and Dow Jones have the same expected rate of return?" rate of return, measured as a %, is numeric and what factors determine that rate of return? In addition to the basic descriptive statistics, the paper must involve at least 2 essential types of statistical analysis: (1) you must test both samples to see if their mean and standard deviation are equal (chs 8 and 9); and (2) you must run a multiple regression using each sample to estimate the determinants of the dependent variable (ch 11 and 12). http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/term00.htm (1 of 4) [8/24/2000 5:58:08 PM]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Data **NOTE: The determinants of the dependent variable can be either numeric or categorical. Depending on your topic, you may use either primary (data you collect from surveys) or secondary (data in books, off the Net, etc...) data. **NOTE: You will need to have several series of data: (1) the dependent variable and (2) several other variables (either numeric or categorical) which you think might explain the dependent variable. Rules Timeline You may work in pairs or alone. If you work as a "team", you will be required to do a bit more extensive analysis than you would if you were not working as a "team". No two groups are allowed to work on exactly the same topic. Oct 20 Paper topic due TYPED(1 page): briefly describing your idea, your question, and a listing of possible variables Oct 30 Turn in Excel data files: on 3.5" disk Nov 13 Turn in descriptive statistics section of paper, with summary Nov 20 Two-sample test results due Dec 8 Complete paper due including an EXECUTIVE SUMMARY telling your boss the highlights of your findings. PAPER OUTLINE I. Introduction II. Data This should give the reader a proper introduction to the issues and questions which will be addressed in the paper. A. Data and Sources What is your data (definitions) and where did you get http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/term00.htm (2 of 4) [8/24/2000 5:58:08 PM]
them? If you did a survey, you should include a copy of the survey in an appendix, so the reader knows exactly how the series are defined. If your data is from a secondary source, you need to include the source(s) in your REFERENCES. B. Descriptive Statistics This includes all the tables (pivot and summary stats - mean, median, st. deviation. coeff. of variation, etc...) and charts (histogram and pie). In addition, you must include a confidence interval estimate of your dependent variable (for each sample). Like in the first paper, you must give the reader a proper interpretation of these numbers and charts. *NOTE: the research paper should be written as if your audience where other researchers. You must be careful to explain your statistics as "boring" as it may seem. But, think about organizing the topic by "subject" rather than the "tools" C. Summary of this section This means that you need to tell your reader "what seems to be interesting at this point?" III. One and Two Sample Test Results A. Hypothesis /Definition Here, explain a bit about what you think will happen. You may be wrong. so be it. The point is that you have "looked" at the data and have probably formulated some "theory" about what is going on here. This "theory" is what drives you to test the relationships that you will formally test in the following section. It also tells the reader exactly why you are formally testing the things you test. B. Formal Test Results You need to explain which test(s) you use, along with formally stating the null hypothesis. Note, the null hypothesis is the formal hypothesis that is tested, though it may not be what you "really think". Though you don t need to show your work in the paper, you do need to give the test statistic and tell the reader whether or not it is "significant". That is, do you reject, or fail to reject the formal hypothesis? You can easily give these numbers in a Table or two. http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/term00.htm (3 of 4) [8/24/2000 5:58:08 PM]
C. Summary of Test Results Here, you discuss the implications of the formal test results. What does this imply about your theory? IV. Linear Regression Analysis A. Hypothesis /Theory (This is similar to section III, part A.) B. Regression Results (Again, see section III, part B.) C. Summary of Regression Results V. Conclusion This should fully summarize the interesting findings in the paper. Do not, however, repeat everything you said before. You need to think hard about this! Also, you might be able to offer the reader some explanations for why, or why not, the results turned out the way they did. Have you raised other interesting questions from doing this research? Or, is there something that you d like to see another researcher do differently? Are there any weaknesses in the analysis? This is key: knowing your (or your work s) shortcomings is a sign of an intelligent mind. http://www.elon.edu/deloach/stat/term00.htm (4 of 4) [8/24/2000 5:58:08 PM]