Boston s Youth Employment & Education Indicators December 2017
Defining Opportunity Youth The most common measure of youth disconnection is the number of 16-24 year olds who are neither in school nor employed at the time of being surveyed. The term Opportunity Youth was coined to highlight the positive assets inherent in disconnected youth, and the potential societal benefits if these young people reconnect. The terms Opportunity Youth and Disconnected Youth are often used interchangeably, though Opportunity Youth tends to be defined more broadly in recent literature.
The Key Indicators of Disconnection & Connection Boston is tracking these indicators that impact the size and characteristics of the population of opportunity youth and inform potential interventions: High school credential attainment: The 4-year and 5-year graduation rates of Boston Public School classes and annual high school dropout rates. An increase in high school credential attainment is generally associated with a decline in the incidences of disconnection, as high school graduates are better prepared for the labor market and postsecondary training opportunities than those youth without a regular diploma. Boston is experiencing lower disconnection among high school aged youth as the high school graduation rate increases. The majority of opportunity youth in Boston possess at least a high school credential but have encountered difficulty transitioning from high school to employment or postsecondary education. Postsecondary education enrollment and attainment: The postsecondary college and training enrollment rate of high school graduates pursuing postsecondary education within 16 months of earning their diploma. An increase in the postsecondary enrollment rate will reduce the number of recent high school graduates that are disconnected from school and work.
The Key Indicators of Disconnection & Connection Employment Rates: The percent of the 16-19 and 20-24 year old populations that are employed at the time of the American Community Survey. The number of opportunity youth increases when employment rates decline and vice-versa. Indicators disaggregated by race and ethnicity: Boston is focusing on the disparities in access to opportunity that disproportionately affect young people of color. On every education outcome tracked in this dashboard, there is a persistent race-ethnic gap.
Trends in the 16-24 year-old disconnection rate in Massachusetts 2008-09 to 2014-15 (2-year averages) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 13.3% 10.0% 14.1% 10.4% 5.9% 5.7% 16-24 16-19 20-24 13.5% 12.8% 13.1% 9.8% 9.4% 9.5% 12.4% 9.1% 11.2% 8.3% 5.1% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 0% 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Source: American Community Survey
Number and Percent of 16-24 Year Olds Disconnected from School and Work by Race / Ethnic Group, Gender, and Age 2014-2015 2-year averages Race / Ethnic Group Population Opportunity Youth % of Population Asian 12,530 687 5.50% Black 23,541 2,836 12.00% Hispanic/ Latino/ Spanish 22,290 2,156 9.70% White 50,424 1,539 3.10% Male 54,440 4,457 8.20% Female 58,756 3,313 5.60% 16-19 41,255 1,593 3.90% 20-24 71,941 6,177 8.60% Total 113,196 7,770 6.90% Note: Groups consist of people who identified solely with that racial or ethnic group and did not select multiple options Source: American Community Survey
Disconnection rates of Boston youth by race/ethnic group 2009-11 to 2014-15 25% 2009-11 2011-13 2014-15 20% 19.9% 18.5% 15% 13.3% 13.5% 12.0% 10% 5% 7.1% 2.8% 5.5% 9.7% 3.9% 2.9% 3.1% 0% Asian (only) Black (only) Hispanic/Latino (only) White (only) Note: Groups consist of people who identified solely with that racial or ethnic group and did not select multiple options Source: American Community Survey
Boston's Youth Employment Rates 2006 to 2014 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16-19 Employment Rate 20-24 Employment Rate 61.8% 56.8% 55.9% 50.8% 50.8% 52.8% 49.1% 49.9% 46.1% 36.3% 30.9% 31.3% 25.5% 26.0% 28.5% 29.5% 32.0% 30.5% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: American Community Survey
Boston Public Schools Total High School Students Dropping Out 2006 to 2016 2500 2000 1936 1500 1610 1447 1264 1116 1165 1219 1000 828 701 812 830 500 0 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Sources: Boston Public Schools
Boston Public Schools Annual Dropout Rates 2006 to 2016 10% 9.4% 9% 8% 7% 6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.4% 5.7% 6.0% 6.4% 5% 4% 4.5% 3.8% 4.4% 4.5% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Source: Boston Public Schools, Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
Boston Public School Annual High School Dropout Rates by Race / Ethnic Group, 2006 to 2016 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Hispanic 11.0% 10.0% 9.6% 7.8% 7.0% 7.5% 7.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% Black 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.9% 6.1% 6.2% 6.9% 4.5% 3.7% 4.8% 4.9% White 7.8% 6.1% 5.4% 4.1% 3.4% 4.2% 5.2% 3.8% 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% Asian 3.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 3.0% 2.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% Source: Boston Public Schools
Boston Public Schools Annual High School Dropout Rate by Gender 2006 to 2016 12% Male Female 10% 8% 6% 4% 7.7% 7.9% 6.7% 6.3% 4.9% 5.1% 4.9% 7.1% 7.1% 5.7% 5.4% 3.5% 4.6% 3.0% 4.9% 3.9% 5.6% 3.3% 2% 0% 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Source: Boston Public Schools
Boston Public Schools 4- and 5-year graduation rates 2006 to 2016 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4-year 5-year 65.1% 65.4% 66.4% 66.5% 68.8% 70.9% 72.3% 72.2% 73.1% 76.0% 59.1% 57.9% 59.9% 61.4% 63.2% 64.4% 65.9% 65.9% 66.7% 70.7% 72.4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
Trends in the 16-Month College Enrollment Rates of BPS Classes of 2006 to 2015 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 61.2% 64.3% 59.9% 62.9% 67.1% 66.2% 64.7% 71.5% 71.6% 70.0% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
Data Sources Employment: The U.S. Census Bureau s American Community Surveys (ACS) is the primary source for population statistics at the local level. The ACS is a large-scale, national household survey. ACS interviews are conducted monthly on an on-going basis. The 3-year and 5-year averages of these monthly interviews can be used for analysis at the city and sub-city levels. Unfortunately, the 3-year file was discontinued in 2014. The Census creates only a 1-year and 5-year file now. High school diploma: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) tracks the percentage of students who graduate with a regular high school diploma within 4 or 5 years. This is defined by the number of students in a cohort who graduate in 4 or 5 years or less dividing by the number of first time students entering 9 th grade 4 years earlier transfers out + transfers in. Postsecondary education: DESE reports the enrollment of public high school graduates into institutions of higher education within 16 months of graduating high school, including private two-year, private four-year, public two-year, and public four year institutions.
Data Sources American Community Survey https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/ Boston Public Schools Data and Reports http://www.bostonpublicschools.org/page/693 Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/dropout.aspx
Questions, feedback, or further information, contact: Anika Van Eaton, Boston Private Industry Council anika.vaneaton@bostonpic.org