Anna Independent School District Demographic Report Fall 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
Economic Conditions DFW Area (August 2017) 3.1% 107,300 new jobs National rate 1.5% Unemployment Rate 31,254 1,692 more starts than 2Q16 Job Growth U.S. 4.5% Texas 4.5% DFW MSA 3.9% Collin County 3.7% -0.1% Annual Home Starts Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2
DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q17 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,576 2,597 4,359 6,639 2 Prosper ISD 2,808 2,399 5,432 26,728 3 Denton ISD 1,948 1,948 2,585 20,648 4 Northwest ISD 2,005 1,691 1,664 23,656 5 Dallas ISD 1,800 1,496 2,091 6,593 6 Lewisville ISD 1,234 1,344 1,677 4,561 7 Little Elm ISD 1,137 1,057 1,532 3,646 8 Rockwall ISD 953 974 1,948 8,190 9 Wylie ISD 813 821 1,127 4,150 10 McKinney ISD 835 819 1,495 6,881 11 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 914 798 1,504 19,242 12 Keller ISD 725 791 749 1,716 13 Mansfield ISD 739 720 926 6,723 14 Crowley ISD 563 679 1,052 9,213 15 Forney ISD 810 654 1,501 13,496 16 Allen ISD 683 597 1,109 1,724 17 Garland ISD 594 569 415 4,119 18 Midlothian ISD 603 546 1,607 19,524 19 Coppell ISD 467 505 427 490 20 Waxahachie ISD 481 463 889 9,522 29 Melissa ISD 311 319 849 4,883 30 Anna ISD 367 278 555 6,845* 31 Crandall ISD 324 277 242 5,887 * Based on additional research by TD Staff 3
New Housing Activity 160 140 Starts Closings Anna ISD 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 1Q 32 85 77 26 68 118 1Q 21 85 75 62 57 64 2Q 73 76 138 63 68 121 2Q 52 72 78 35 48 84 3Q 97 92 73 54 56 3Q 70 79 100 62 75 4Q 95 53 48 63 72 4Q 76 78 104 41 55 Total 297 306 336 206 264 239 Total 219 314 357 200 235 148 Anna ISD has started 121 homes in 2Q17, a rise of nearly 78% over 2Q16, and is on pace to start more than 400 homes in 2017 The district is on pace to close more than 300 homes in 2017 New home inventory is at a high 9.4 month s supply due to surge in starts in 2017 4
District Housing Overview Anna ISD has more than 500 lots available to build on Groundwork is underway on appx. 515 lots The district has nearly 6,850 planned future lots Active Subdivisions Future Subdivisions 5
Annual Closings Distribution 2Q17 Top 5 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Elementary Annual Closings VDL Future 1 WEST CROSSING BRYANT 100 12 857 2 ANNA TOWN SQUARE HARLOW 79 68 1,772 3 OAK HOLLOW ESTATES RATTAN 47 0 0 4 CAMDEN PARC (ANNA) HARLOW 32 24 363 5 LAKEVIEW ESTATES (ANNA) HARLOW 14 35 66 TOTALS 272 139 3,058 6
Vacant Developed Lots 2Q17 Top 5 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Annual Rank Subdivision Elementary Closings VDL Future 1 AVERY POINTE BRYANT 0 247 284 2 NORTHPOINTE CROSSING (BRYANT) BRYANT 0 152 347 3 ANNA TOWN SQUARE HARLOW 79 68 1,772 4 LAKEVIEW ESTATES (ANNA) HARLOW 14 35 66 5 CAMDEN PARC (ANNA) HARLOW 32 24 363 TOTALS 125 526 2,832 7
Future Lots 2Q17 Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision Elementary Annual Closings VDL Future 1 OAK RIDGE RATTAN 0 0 1,800 2 ANNA TOWN SQUARE HARLOW 79 68 1,772 3 WEST CROSSING BRYANT 100 12 857 4 VILLAGES OF HURRICANE CREEK RATTAN 0 0 654 5 PECAN GROVE (ANNA) HARLOW 0 0 467 6 CAMDEN PARC (ANNA) HARLOW 32 24 363 7 NORTHPOINTE CROSSING (BRYANT) BRYANT 0 152 347 8 AVERY POINTE BRYANT 0 247 284 9 ANNA 55 HARLOW 0 0 151 10 SWEETWATER CROSSING HARLOW 0 0 84 TOTALS 211 503 6,779 8
Housing Activity by Elementary Elementary Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Under Inventory Vacant Starts Starts Closings Closings Const. Dev. Lots Future BRYANT 132 35 100 34 41 59 411 1,488 HARLOW 230 86 125 50 105 156 127 2,903 RATTAN 5 0 53 0 2 2 17 2,454 Grand Total 367 121 278 84 148 217 555 6,845 9
Residential Activity Palladium Anna and Anna Town Square Palladium Anna 120 future MF units 86 tax-credit units 34 market rate units Awarded housing tax credit by State of Texas July 2016 Building construction to begin late 2017 Harlow Elementary Phase 7-229 lots Creekside 106 lots Anna Town Square 650 acres 2,000 total lots 1,772 future lots 68 vacant developed lots 85 homes occupied 59 homes under construction Creekside (106 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting May 2018 Phase 7 (229 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting March 2018 Building appx. 150-200 homes per year Current student yield: 0.65 Harlow Elementary 10
Residential Activity West Crossing 11 West Crossing Phase 5 92 lots Phase 7 85 lots Phase 6 108 lots 1,362 total lots 857 future lots 12 vacant developed lots 458 homes occupied 19 homes under construction Phase 5 (92 lots) delivered and homebuilding Built out Fall 2017 Phase 6 (108 lots) groundwork nearing completion Phase 7 (85 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting summer 2018 Building 80-100 homes per year Current student yield: 0.59 Bryant Elementary
Residential Activity Avery Pointe Estates Avery Pointe Estates 555 total lots 284 future lots 247 vacant developed lots Phases 1, 2, 3 (271 lots) delivered and homebuilding Phase 4 (101 lots) groundwork underway 54 home starts to date in 2017 First closings currently underway, 1 current student Bryant Elementary Phase 4 101 Lots 12
Residential Activity Lakeview Estates Lakeview Estates 168 total lots 71 future lots 35 vacant developed lots 14 homes occupied 36 homes under construction Phase 2 (71 lots) groundwork underway Current student yield: 0.42 Harlow Elementary Phase 2 69 Lots 13
Residential Activity North Pointe Crossing and Camden Parc North Pointe Crossing 820 total lots 402 future lots 266 homes occupied Phase 2 (152 lots) delivered and homebuilding Phase 3 (163 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting Spring 2018 Current student yield: 0.67 Bryant Elementary Phase 3 163 Lots Phase 2 152 lots Camden Parc 452 total lots 363 future lots 32 homes occupied 10 homes under construction 24 vacant developed lots Phases 2 (88 lots) groundwork underway Phases 3 (182 lots) and 4 (169 lots) in design phase Current student yield: 1.00 Harlow Elementary 14
Residential Activity Pecan Grove Phase 2 152 lots Melissa ISD Pecan Grove 640 total lots 467 future lots 173 existing homes occupied Phase 2 (152 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting July 2018 Phase 3 (106 lots) groundwork starting end 2017, homes starting early 2019 Developer estimates building 120 homes per year Current student yield: 0.53 Harlow Elementary 15
Future Residential Activity Oak Ridge Oak Ridge 1,800 future lots 205 future townhomes 500 future multi-family units Developer is still in negotiations with the City of Anna Homes will start at $250K Rattan Elementary 16
Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth % Growth Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2013/14 23 72 225 268 216 206 213 178 189 199 195 157 182 135 139 2,597 2014/15 22 90 232 255 258 236 228 226 198 204 219 221 161 183 141 2,874 277 10.7% 2015/16 28 74 283 234 255 254 247 247 246 214 204 230 204 171 181 3,072 198 6.9% 2016/17 36 50 244 300 256 276 259 249 278 251 206 232 246 197 159 3,239 167 5.4% 2017/18 33 74 260 279 294 249 289 273 262 283 244 232 238 251 202 3,463 224 6.9% 2018/19 33 74 301 297 289 307 264 308 306 280 298 277 232 244 244 3,754 291 8.4% 2019/20 33 74 338 334 325 319 345 290 345 330 289 347 286 233 237 4,125 371 9.9% 2020/21 33 74 361 386 366 360 351 376 319 369 338 346 347 287 230 4,543 418 10.1% 2021/22 33 74 408 422 432 415 409 390 419 338 381 377 350 348 280 5,076 533 11.7% 2022/23 33 74 451 481 466 497 478 463 433 444 349 441 377 351 338 5,676 600 11.8% 2023/24 33 74 489 514 532 525 563 527 513 459 458 411 443 378 344 6,263 587 10.3% 2024/25 33 74 515 560 565 596 589 629 585 544 474 539 413 444 369 6,929 666 10.6% 2025/26 33 74 545 584 608 633 667 650 698 632 561 558 541 414 434 7,632 703 10.1% 2026/27 33 74 586 619 631 665 702 725 721 740 652 661 560 542 402 8,313 681 8.9% 2027/28 33 74 624 667 665 702 747 764 805 764 763 768 664 561 526 9,127 814 9.8% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Anna ISD will reach more than 4,100 students by 2019 5 year growth = 2,213 students 2022/23 enrollment = 5,676 10 year growth = 5,664 students 2027/28 enrollment = 9,127 17
Ten Year Forecast By Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ELEMENTARY CAMPUS 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 JOE K BRYANT ELEMENTARY 659 707 779 874 946 1,052 1,149 1,237 1,302 1,343 1,403 HARLOW ELEMENTARY 504 580 681 823 972 1,142 1,275 1,419 1,524 1,665 1,780 SUE EVELYN RATTAN ELEMENTARY 588 586 598 610 665 749 833 905 968 1,027 1,093 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 1,751 1,873 2,058 2,307 2,583 2,943 3,257 3,561 3,794 4,035 4,276 Elementary Absolute Change 81 122 185 249 276 360 314 304 233 241 241 Elementary Percent Change 5% 7% 10% 12% 12% 14% 11% 9% 7% 6% 6% ANNA MIDDLE SCHOOL 788 883 963 1,025 1,137 1,225 1,429 1,602 1,890 2,112 2,331 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 788 883 963 1,025 1,137 1,225 1,429 1,602 1,890 2,112 2,331 Middle School Absolute Change 53 95 80 62 112 88 204 173 288 222 219 Middle School Percent Change 7% 12% 9% 6% 11% 8% 17% 12% 18% 12% 10% ANNA HIGH SCHOOL 922 996 1,102 1,209 1,354 1,506 1,575 1,764 1,946 2,164 2,518 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 922 996 1,102 1,209 1,354 1,506 1,575 1,764 1,946 2,164 2,518 High School Absolute Change 89 74 106 107 145 152 69 189 182 218 354 High School Percent Change 11% 8% 11% 10% 12% 11% 5% 12% 10% 11% 16% SPECIAL PROGRAM CENTER 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 DISTRICT TOTALS 3,463 3,754 4,125 4,543 5,076 5,676 6,263 6,929 7,632 8,313 9,127 District Absolute Change 224 291 371 418 533 600 587 666 703 681 814 District Percent Change 7% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% Bryant Elementary and Harlow Elementary will have more than 1,000 students by 2022 Rattan Elementary will have more than 800 students by 2023 Anna Middle School will enroll more than 1,000 students by 2020 Anna High School will reach almost 1,000 students next year 18
Summary Collin County s unemployment rate is currently below 4%. Collin County will continue to see housing grow north due to the low unemployment rate and corporate relocations in Plano/Frisco. Anna ISD has started over 230 homes to date in 2017. Anna ISD added roughly 220 students this fall. AISD can expect an increase more than 2,200 students during the next 5 years. 2022/23 enrollment projection: 5,676. AISD is projected to enroll just over 9,100 students for the 2027/28 school year. 19