2016-17 SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR ZIMBABWE
Outlook for the October to December (OND) 2016 rainfall period Outlook for the January to March (JFM) 2017 rainfall period Implications of the Forecast for the 2016/17 Rainfall Season
Region 1 Harare, much of Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, northeastern parts of Midlands, parts Manicaland Normal to above normal rainfall expected. Region 2 The bulk of Matabeleland North, parts of Midlands and parts of Mashonaland West. Normal to above normal rainfall expected Region 3 Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland and the bulk of Matabeleland South. Normal to above normal rainfall expected. A: N: B: Homogeneous Zones (Oct- December 2016) Normal 248mm A: Probability of above normal rainfall N:Probability of normal rainfall B: Probability of below normal rainfall Normal 307 mm Normal 261mm Normal to above normal rainfall The period from October to December termed OND is expected to have rainfall which is in the normal to above normal category across the whole country. For example, when an area has a climatological average rainfall of 248mm during OND, it is expected to receive that amount of rainfall or more. Climatologically October does not bring much rain and thus more rains are expected in November and December. The tendency to go to above normal rainfall is a signal to an early start of the rainfall season.
Region 1 Mashonaland Provinces, Harare, most of Manicaland, northern parts of Masvingo and northern parts of Midlands. Normal to above normal rainfall is expected. Region 2 Most of Matabeleland North, northwest Matebeleland South, Bulawayo. Normal to above normal rains are expected. Region3 Most of Masvingo, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland, southeast Matebeleland South and the southern parts of Midlands Normal to below normal rains are expected. Homogeneous Zones (Jan- March 2017) The JFM season is expected to deteriorate in terms of rainfall over meteorological Region 3, while Regions 1 and 2 are forecasted to be within the normal category with a bias towards the above normal.
The Meteorological Services Department will continue to monitor the behavior of the La Niña phenomenon, which at times, is linked to above normal rainfall in Zimbabwe. There are many factors which affect rainfall, of which the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is one. As such the predictions will be reviewed with updates being issued on monthly basis beginning end of October. In addition, any sudden changes will be communicated timeously, including in our 10-day bulletins and daily forecasts.
There is a high likelihood of an early start of the season for the whole country, with significant rains as early as late September 2016 in the southern areas of the Zimbabwe; Inputs, including small grains should be distributed to all regions (a) by the end of September 2016 in Matabeleland South, Masvingo, Midlands and southern districts of Manicaland and (b) By the end of October for the rest of the country; In view of the moisture availability and suitable temperature thresholds, those with water should not wait for the main rains to fall. They can plant any time now; Please Note: Despite the high chances of higher than usual rains this season, in terms of national strategic planning and development, Zimbabwe should always expect, and plan for, one form of drought or another. It is now extremely rare for the whole country to experience the same weather conditions.
There is need to continue with water harvesting programmes already underway; especially those in agro-ecological zones IV and V. We should keep in mind that there are indications of deterioration in the rainfall amounts as the season progresses. The policies of small dam construction and borehole drilling/ deepening, conservation and protection of wetlands should continue, more so in the Southern Provinces of the country; Application of fertilizers should be guided by the 10-day weather forecasts as well as advice from Agricultural authorities; (Conservation, e.g., contouring and ridging/ smart agriculture); The 10-day weather forecasts will be issued from October until April; Incentives for maize production in support for Command Agriculture should be announced as soon as possible, rather than wait until the middle of the season; Mindful that many communal farmers lost cattle (hence stifling animal-drawn ploughing capability) during the recently ended drought, there is need to allocate some tractors and associated implements to them. After all, the bulk of the crop that goes to the GMB comes from small scale farmers.