Your Future: Arizona s Sun Corridor Michael M. Crow President Arizona State University 09.30.2011
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
Texas Metroplex
Chesapeake
Southern California
Megapolitan Nation Puget Sound Willamette Valley Front Range Lake Front Michigan Corridor Steel Corridor New England Northern California Mid-Atlantic Chesapeake Southern California Ohio Valley Carolina Piedmont Southern Piedmont Sun Corridor Texas Corridor Metroplex Texas Gulf Central Florida South Florida Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech
Megapolitans produce roughly 70% of US GDP but only take up 14.5% of the nation s land area. Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech
Megapolitans will add 62 million residents from 2000-2030, 65% of the total forecasted population increase in the lower 48 states. Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
Arizona s Arizona s Sun Sun Corridor Corridor Prescott Phoenix Casa Grande Tucson Nogales Sierra Vista
The Sun Corridor population is projected to total 7,839,873 in 2030, 2,031,759 more than 2010. Source: Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Sun Corridor Population 2000 2050 Source: Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
Sun Corridor Population 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Source: US Census Bureau
Sun Corridor Population 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Santa Cruz Cochise Yavapai Pinal Pima Maricopa 1,000,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Source: US Census Bureau
Age of Sun Corridor Residents 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Under 18 Years Over 65 Years 5% 0% Yavapai Pima Cochise Sun Corridor Total Pinal Maricopa Santa Cruz Source: US Census Bureau State and County Quickfacts
Sun Corridor Residents by Race 4% 2% 3% 1% 30% 59% White Not Hispanic Hispanic Black American Indian Asian Other Source: US Census Bureau State and County Quickfacts
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
The combined economic output of Phoenix, Tucson and Prescott was $231.9 billion in 2009. This is comparable to the economies of Finland, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates or Portugal. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and World Bank
Per Capita Income Relative to US Average: 1980-2008 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Phoenix MSA Tucson MSA Prescott MSA 70% 65% 60% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Per Capita Income of the 52 Largest Metros Relative to US Average 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% Phoenix Tucson 80% 60% Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, Table 682. 2008 data
Miami Dallas Las Vegas Detroit Per Capita Income of the 52 Largest Metros Relative to US Average 180% San Francisco 160% 140% 120% Washington D.C. Seattle Denver Houston 100% Phoenix Riverside Tucson 80% 60% Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, Table 682. 2008 data
Per Capita Income and Cost of Living Relative to US Average 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, Tables 682 and 712. 2008 data
Per Capita Income in Megapolitans by Component Metro Relative to US Average 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60%
Poverty in the Sun Corridor 18% 16% 16.6% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Source: US Census Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates 2010 data from US Census ACS 1-Year Estimates
In 2010, over 900,000 Sun Corridor residents lived in poverty. Source: US Census Bureau ACS 1-Year Estimates
Sun Corridor Employment by Occupation 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2010 data for Phoenix, Tucson and Prescott MSAs
Sun Corridor Employment Relative to US Average 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Higher Concentration Lower Concentration Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2010 data for Phoenix, Tucson and Prescott MSAs
Sun Corridor and Denver-Aurora MSA Employment Relative to US Average 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Sun Corridor Denver MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2010 data for Phoenix, Tucson and Prescott MSAs
Export Value of Metro Areas $120,000,000,000 $100,000,000,000 $80,000,000,000 $60,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $0 Source: International Trade Administration. 2008 Data
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
Out of the 100 largest metros, Phoenix ranks 77 th lowest and Tucson ranks 75 th lowest in high school attainment. Source: State of Metropolitan America, Brookings Institution. 2009 data.
Bachelor's degree attainment, age 25 and over 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Denver, CO: 37.6% US Average: 35% 20% 10% Phoenix Tucson 0% Asian Black Hispanic White Total 2009 Data Source: Brookings Institution
Unemployment in Arizona 15.8% Less than a high school diploma 10.9% High school graduate, no college 8.4% Some college or associate degree 5.4% Bachelor s degree and higher Data for civilian noninstitutional population 25 years and over. Data are 2010 averages Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
Degrees Average Low June Temperature at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 Year Source: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Satellite and Information Service
Growing Urban Heat Island Source: Anthony Brazel, Ph.D., ASU
Cubic Feet Per Second Average Yearly Streamflow of Colorado River at Lee s Ferry, Arizona 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: US Geological Survey, Water Resources
Megapolitan Regions Sun Corridor Demographics Economy Education Environment Opportunities
Opportunities The Sun Corridor is still young and has no dominant productive industry. This means: We have strong, modern cities not in direct economic competition We have few intractable, centuries-old institutions We can design the future we want
Sun Corridor Design Parameters 1. Leverage our place 2. Create a sustainable production and consumption system 3. Enable collaborative culture 4. Create a competitive, rewarding environment for risk and achievement 5. Build a qualified and flexible labor force 6. Embrace technological, organizational and social innovation
Leverage Our Place The economy of California is equivalent to the 9 th largest in the world. The economy of Mexico is the 13 th largest in the world. Map Source: The Economist Data Source: BEA and World Bank. 2010 data.
Leverage Our Place The US exported $7.45 billion in goods through the Nogales and Douglas Ports of Entry in 2010. 56% were exports from Arizona. 85% of US exports through California-Mexico Ports of Entry were from California. Source: U.S. DoT, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, TransBorder Freight Data
Billion BTUs Create a Sustainable Production and Consumption System 1800000 Energy in Arizona 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 Total Energy Consumption Renewable Energy Production 200000 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Data in billion BTUs Source: Energy Information Administration
Enable Collaborative Culture Collaboration improves: the efficiency of economic exchange the rate of technological diffusion political processes
Enable Collaborative Culture Multi-National Corporations State Government Regional Economic Developers County Governments City Governments Knowledge Enterprises, including universities Community Colleges K-12 Education Systems Firms Entrepreneurs Citizens Social capital influences the frequency and quality of interactions within and between levels.
Create a Rewarding Environment for Risk
Build a Qualified and Flexible Labor Force Our efforts must: provide existing students with specific, marketable skill sets and the intellectual flexibility to succeed in multiple professional careers minimize barriers to education facing nontraditional students such as location, workstatus, or personal obligations
Embrace Technological, Organizational and Social Innovation Perpetual Innovation Edge of Newness Deep Competitiveness