www.pwc.com/me Understanding the GCC Education Sector a country by country guide Country Profile: UAE This series of infographics provides a country by country overview of the education sector in the GCC. The UAE is one of the more mature markets in the region and remains a draw for investors, providers and students. Its scale and ambition remain undimmed, but what is the reality on the ground and what do the trends over time tell us about the education sector by segment? Finally what are the key differences between its two main markets Dubai and? September 216
Overview of the education sector Figure 1: Structure of the UAE s education system 1 Age British system American system Emirati system UAE National Regulators Dubai Regulators Regulators 18+ 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 Postsecondary Postsecondary Secondary 12 13 Secondary 7 11 Primary 1 6 Postsecondary Secondary 7 12 Elementary 1 6 Secondary 1 12 Secondary 6 9 Elementary 1 5 National Qualifications Authority (NQA) Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MoHESR) Commission for Academic Accreditation (CAA) Ministry of Education (MoED) Vocational Education and Training Awards Council (VETAC) Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) Centre for Technical & Vocational Education & Training (ACTVET) Education Council (ADEC) 6 5 Kindergarten Kindergarten 4 3 Preprimary FS 1 FS 2 Pre K Pre K 1 UNESCO; PwC analysis
Figure 2: A growing youth population, especially in the K12 age group 2 3,5 3, Population (') 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 615 764 339 931 1,113 918 1,236 585 573 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215E 216E217E 218E 219E 22E 221E222E 223E 224E 225E 955 1,366 541 5 518 1824 Figure 3: Rising income levels 3 Figure 4: The number of schools in the UAE with many of the parents demanding high academic standards is similar to the levels seen in the US 4 Average HH Disposable Income, USD (') 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 UAE households have the highest average disposable incomes in the world (median US$113,82), with a real terms increase of 41.5% predicted by 23 Decile 1 Decile 2 Decile 3 Decile 4 Decile 5 Decile 6 Decile 7 Decile 8 Decile 9 Decile 1 214 23 OECD average US Australia UAE 21.2% 37.1% 35.7% 36.9% 45.8% 42.% 55.3% 41.8% 33.1% 2.9% 9.% 21.3% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% According to principals, many of the parents demand high academic standards at their school A minority of the parents demand high academic standards Very few parents demand high academic standards Figure 5: The quality of education in the UAE remains high, despite the negative impact of including gross tertiary education enrolment in the Global Competitiveness Index. This rate reflects the unique demographic makeup of the UAE and its outbound student mobility rate, which is one of the highest in the world Global Competitiveness Index rankings comparison, 21516 vs. 21415 5 Figure 6: The UAE s demanding aspirational goals PISA 212 6 Score 55 221 UAE National Agenda Target: 52 5 494 496 51 45 461 464 469 21516 21415 Overall 17 th 12 th Quality of primary education 13 th 13 th Quality of higher education 12 th 9 th Primary education enrolment, net % 94 th 98 th Secondary education enrolment, gross % 67 th 64 th Tertiary education enrolment, gross % 99 th not included 4 35 413 419 399 Mathematics Reading Science Private Public OECD Average 2 UN ; PwC analysis 3 Euromonitor; PwC analysis 4 OECD (PISA 212 principal survey); PwC analysis 5 WEF (21516 (rank/14 countries) and 21415 (rank/144); PwC analysis 6 OECD; PwC analysis
Higher Education Figure 7: Despite a declining tertiaryaged population group, the UAE s tertiary enrolment rate has continued to rise to which 42, additional seats will be required by 22. The country has been a popular destination for students from abroad to come and study, being drawn to its international higher education institutions 1824 population & higher education enrolment by year and school type 7 1,4 1,2 1,88 Population CAGR: 1.4% 1,185 1,28 1,18 1,126 1,6 CAGR: 7.3% (private) 5.3% (public) 123,564 14, 12, Population (') 1, 8 6 4 52,926 33,164 992 931 928 926 923 921 61,551 1, 918 8, 6, 4, Public Private 1824 Population (') 2 61% 63% 63% 64% 65% 65% 65% 66% 66% 66% 66% 67% 67% 2, Figure 8: and number of institutions by Emirate and school type, 213214 8 Public Private ( ) = number of schools 28 29 21 211 212 213 214E 215E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E 23,153 (31) 9,325 (4) 111 (1) 28,18 (6) 2,33 (1) Ajman 2,418 (3) Umm Al Quwain Dubai Sharjah 9,411 (3) 43,175 (54) 19,794 (6) Ras Al Khaimah Fujairah 3,527 (1) 1,612 (2) 2,234 (1) Figure 9: In Dubai, higher education enrolment has been growing faster than in since 21 and offers more universities, including international branch campuses, than any other Emirate 9 59,81 6, 52,586 5, 5,754 51,333 45,677 47,7 4, 4,31 32,77 35,489 3, 15,323 19,213 19,49 2,26 23,153 2, 1, 38,281 39,127 43,212 48,58 24,78 26,464 27,58 3,728 28,18 2,59 (39%) 24,312 (41%) 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Dubai All Other Dubai Private (Int'l) Dubai Total Private Public 26,125 Figure 1: Despite a strategic commitment from the government to promote STEM subjects and encourage more programme diversity, the field of Business and Economics remains popular for university graduates 1 Food & Agriculture Sciences Foreign languages Arts & Design Medical Sciences Environment & Health Sciences Human & Social Sciences Communication & Media Sciences Public Private Information Technology Sharia & Law Education Engineering Business & Economics 7 MoHESR; UN; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate;1824 population calculations only) 8 MoHESR; KHDA; PwC analysis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 9 ADEC; SCAD; KHDA; PwC analysis 1 MoHESR; PwC analysis 211 212 213
Figure 11: graduates from private institutions, 21213 11 2,26 private enrolment* (4% of Abu Dubai total) 4,221 private graduates 63% Bachelor s 37% Master s Figure 12: Dubai graduates from private international institutions, 21415 12 24,312 private enrolment* (41% of Dubai total) 5,619 private graduates 44% Bachelor s 52% Master s Top 3 Bachelor s Top 3 Bachelor s/master s Business 31% Engineering 1% Law 9% Business 63% Engineering 13% Media & Design 7% K12 Education Figure 13: Over 175, additional seats are predicted to be required by 22 in the UAE of which 9% are expected to be in the private sector 518 population & K12 enrolment and number of schools by school type in the UAE 13 518 Population ( ) Population CAGR: 1.5% CAGR: 5.%(private); 1.1%(public) 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1,45 1,38 1,82 1,17 1,112 1,19 1,113 1,138 1,163 1,188 1,213 1,236 725 725 72 71 697 673 59 542 461 473 483 489 66% 67% 69% 7% 71% 72% 72% 73% 73% 74% 74% 75% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Schools 29 21 211 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E Year Public Private Schools Public Schools Private Figure 14: K12 enrolment growth is coming from the private sector in every Emirate except Fujairah with Dubai leading the way 14 35, 3, 64% 25, 51% 89% 2, 15, 1, 83% 69% 78% Private (% of total) Public 5, 3% 4% 58% 7% 3% 28% 29% 41% 26 214 26 214 26 214 26 214 26 214 26 214 26 214 Dubai Sharjah Ras Al Khaimah Ajman Fujairah Umm Al Quwain Emirate 11 SCAD; MoHESR; PwC analysis 12 KHDA; PwC analysis 13 MoE; UN; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate) 14 MoE; PwC analysis
Figure 15: is predicted to require over 62, additional seats in 52 new private schools by 22 In Dubai 74,5 additional seats are predicted to be required in 5 new private schools and Dubai K12 private student enrolment and number of private schools 15 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 181 183 59% 88% 88% 6% 148 148 188 CAGR: 5% () 185 184 6% (Dubai) 91% 91% 91% 9% 68% 69% 9% 9% 67% 9% 64% 66% 65% 89% 63% 173 62% 169 158 153 91% 7% 21 211 212 213 214 215* 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E % Percentage of total enrolment in respective Emirate Private enrolment Dubai Private enrolment Dubai Private Schools Private schools 195 19 185 18 175 17 165 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 125 Schools Figure 16: Dubai is seeing a need for more quality schools below AED 4, Focus on Dubai Spread of Dubai K12 private schools, 215 16 12, School size (number of students) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, IB UK US Indian MOE Outstanding Very good Good Acceptable Weak 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 School fees (AED, in thousands) Figure 17: Dubai s K12 private school utilisation rates across its diverse curricula market (212, 214) 17 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 93.6% (212) 87.5%(214) 96,25 seats (214) 84,219 enrolment (214) 89,294 Overall utilisation: 89.5%(212), 87%(214) 93.6%(212) 88.6% (214) 79,114 53,354 82.7% (212) 86.1% (214) 45,937 18,186 92.7% (212) 84.2% (214) 15,312 8,26 7,656 UK Indian US MoE IB n/a (212) 93.3% (214) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Seats Students Seats Curriculum 15 SCAD; KHDA; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate; based on current average school size per Emirate; *estimate only for ) 16 KHDA; PwC analysis (214 school size) 17 KHDA; PwC analysis
Figure 18: In Dubai UK and Indian curriculum schools continue to dominate but IB curriculum schools are becoming an increasingly popular option among parents Dubai K12 private school enrolment by curriculum 18 14, Overall enrolment CAGR: 6% 12, 1, 84,612 (65) 114,29 14,297 2915 enrolment CAGR projected to 22 6.7% 6.1% 8, 6, 4, 2, 79,716 (32) 55,821 (54) 54,619 (21) 55,528 48,493 (31) 39,43 (32) 16,486 (15) 14,353 (11) 29,512 3,851 (6) 15,161(11) 13,386 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% IB MoE US Indian UK ( ) = number of schools Figure 19: An increasing number of schools Good and above in Dubai as rated by KHDA Dubai K12 private school performance 19 Figure 2: Parents are increasingly able to choose Outstanding and Good rated schools as supply increases, meaning improvement is required in lowerrated schools to attract students Dubai K12 private school utilisation rate by school rating (212 & 214) 2 Outstanding Good Share of private schools 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 8% 36% 47% 9% 9% 45% 4% 1% 6% 43% 41% 6% 19% 38%38% 5% Acceptable 96.3% (212) 98.5% (214) Unsatisfactory 9.3% (212) 95.3% (214) % 212 13 213 14 214 15 215 16 Outstanding + Very good* School Rating Good Acceptable Weak 89.5% (212) 9.9% (214) 85.% (212) 79.5% (214) Figure 21: Indian and American curriculum schools are driving growth but British curriculum schools remain popular choices with parents considering admission to lower cost European higher education options Focus on K12 private school enrolment by curriculum 21 1, Overall enrolment CAGR: 5% 9, 8, 92,723 2914 enrolment CAGR projected to 22 15.9% % 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 51,395 (48) 53,481 (45) 59,89 51,463 (43) 38,182 (41) 5,855 (45) 55,428 27,699 (25) 39,989 (3) 54,698 18,384 (26) 15,619 (n/a) 14,314 (19) 15,735 15.9% 4.2%.7% 6.4% 1.24% 1, 13,737 (32) 13,71 (6) 13,192 1.52% 29 21 211 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E Other SABIS & IB American Indian UK MoE ( ) = number of schools 18 KHDA; PwC analysis 19 KHDA (*beginning 21516, Very Good and Very Weak were added to KHDA s ratings framework); PwC analysis 2 KHDA; PwC analysis 21 ADEC; SCAD; PwC analysis
Figure 22: Quality improvement still required despite progress in K12 private school performance 22 8% 7% 72% 66% Share of private schools 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 11% 15% 17% 19% 29211 211213 % High performing Satisfactory In need of improvement School Rating Figure 23: and Dubai K12 private school market size based on tuition fee (AED) and enrolment 23 Market Size (AED, in billlions) 9.24 8.6 7.96 7.32 6.68 6.1 5.35 4.7 4.1 3.52 2.75 2.97 3.2 3.42 3.65 3.88 4.1 4.33 4.56 4.78 211 212 213 214* 215* 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E Dubai PreK Education Figure 24: Formal prek education is increasing in popularity and is encouraged by the UAE government Total enrolment and number of nurseries 24 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 189 219 25 312 354 437 497 (92% private) CAGR: 13.2% 6 5 4 3 2 Nurseries Nurseries 1, 1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E Figure 25: To achieve the OECD average participation rate of 33% for 2 year olds by 22, over 81,5 additional seats will be required 25 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 295, (2 population) UAE participation rate: 3% 8,9 274, OECD participation rate: 33% 9,4 215E 22E 22 ADEC; PwC analysis 23 ADEC; KHDA; PwC analysis (*estimate only for ) 24 MSA; UN; PwC analysis 25 MSA; UN; PwC analysis (2162 seat estimate; based on 34% of nursery enrolment are 2 year olds)
Key players Figure 26: UAE key players in private education by size 26 UAE: Ministry of Education (MoED), Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MoHESR), Commission for Academic Accreditation (CAA), National Qualifications Authority (NQA), Vocational Education and Training Awards Council (VETAC) PreK K12 (schools) HigherEd (enrolment) Local Regulators Bright Kids Kidz Link Kids First Group GEMS Education GEMS Education (7) Aldar Academies (7) University (4,5) Al Ain University of Science and Technology (4,5) Education Council (ADEC) Centre for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (ACTVET) Dubai Innoventures Kids First Group GEMS Education Taaleem GEMS Education (31) Taaleem (7) Innoventures (4) University of Wollongong (4,) HeriotWatt University (3,5) American University in Dubai (2,6) Middlesex University (2,5) American University in the Emirates (2,5) Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) Rest of UAE GEMS Education (7) University of Sharjah (12,5) Ajman University of Science and Technology (9,) American University of Sharjah (6,) Sharjah Education Council Ajman Educational Zone Ras Al Khaimah Educational Zone Fujairah Educational Zone Umm Al Quwain Educational Zone Contacts PwC works nationally and internationally in the education sector with governments, agencies and private sector organisations. If you want to talk to our Middle East team of dedicated specialists who focus exclusively on the education sector, please get in touch. Sally Jeffery Partner E: sally.jeffery@ae.pwc.com Roland Hancock Director E: roland.hancock@ae.pwc.com David Chang Senior Consultant E: david chang@ae.pwc.com 26 PwC analysis
Correct at time of publication (17 August 216) 216 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. Creative Design Centre 166 (9/16).