Appendix C Moore County Schools 2013-14 IPSAC Limited Land Use Study OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORY INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND EDUCATION CENTENNIAL CAMPUS @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY NOVEMBER 20, 2013
2013-14 IPSAC Limited Land Use Study Integrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC) A data-focused membership and utilization forecast and optimization study for Moore County Schools. Membership Forecasting Land Use Study Out-of-Capacity Analysis School Site Optimization Attendance Boundary Optimization
About ITRE and OREd Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) is an interinstitutional research center serves all 16 statewide University of North Carolina systems and partners. ITRE conducts surface, water, and air transportation research, while providing professional training and technical assistance. The Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) works with public K-12 school systems on issues pertaining to student assignment and long range school planning. OREd is a pioneer in the applications of decision science for school districts dealing with the politically sensitive and complex issues of student assignment and new school planning. With over 20 years of experience assisting school districts in NC, SC, and VA, OREd uses mathematical modeling, operations research applications, and GIS analysis to guide school districts to solutions that are driven by data and supported by school policies. www.itre.ncsu.edu/ored
Alamance-Burlington School System 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 Asheboro City Schools 04, 05, 06, 07 Berkeley County Schools (SC) 09, 10, 11, 12 Bladen County Schools 04 Buncombe County Schools 98, 99 Brunswick County Schools 03, 04 Carteret County Schools 09 Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 05, 06, 07,12 Chatham County Schools 03, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 Craven County Schools 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 12 Cumberland County Schools 08, 09 Cleveland County Schools 08 Currituck County Schools 09 Duplin County Schools 09 Durham Public Schools 08, 09, 10, 11, 12 Edgecombe County Public Schools 09 Elizabeth City-Pasquotank County Schools 07 Franklin County Schools 08, 11, 12 Iredell-Statesville Schools 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04 Jones County Schools 09 Johnston County Schools 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 Gaston County Schools 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04 Granville County Schools 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10 Guilford County Schools 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 09, 10, 11, 13 Harnett County Schools 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 Haywood County Schools 99 Hoke County Schools 99, 08, 09, 11, 12 Lee County Schools 08, 09 Lenoir County School 09 Moore County Schools 04, 07, 08, 09, 11, 12, 13 Mooresville Graded Schools 99, 00, 01, 04 Nash-Rocky Mount Schools 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12 New Hanover County Schools 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00 Onslow County Schools 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 Orange County Schools 95, 09, 10, 11, 13 Pamlico County Schools 09 Pender County Schools 09, 13 Randolph County Schools 05, 06, 07, 08, 09 Richmond County Schools 00, 08 Robeson County Schools 08 Rock Hill Schools 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 Rowan County Schools 09 Pitt County Schools 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12 Stafford County Public Schools (VA) 12 Stanly County Schools 12 Stokes County Schools 05, 06, 08 Tupelo Public Schools (MS) 07 Union County Schools 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07 Vance County Schools 09 Wayne County Schools 95 Wake County Public School System 97, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)-RTF: K-12 impact study for Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Moore, Richmond, Robeson county schools
OREd and MCS 2004-05 IPSAC Comprehensive Land Use Study 2007-08 BRAC Regional Impact Study 2008-09 BRAC Regional Impact Study Update 2013-14 IPSAC Limited Land Use Study (plus IPSAC Limited Updates in 2006-07 and 2012-13)
OREd and MCS MCS Month-2 Average Daily Membership = 12,952 * 2004-05 K-12 Membership Forecast (OOC, 3/18/05) Predicted Day-10 2013-14 = 13,276 (error: 2.4%) 2007-08 K-12 Membership Forecast (BRAC OOC Normal, 5/8/08) Predicted Day-10 2013-14 = 13,153 (error: 1.5%) 2008-09 K-12 Membership Forecast (BRAC OOC Normal, 2/24/09) Predicted Day-10 2013-14 = 12,863 (error: 0.5%) (* 2013-14 ADM data supplied by MCS)
Data and Trends Membership and Land Use Data Collected From: NC DPI Moore County Schools Moore County Planning & Community Development Town of Aberdeen Planning Department Village of Planning and Zoning Village of Pinehurst Planning Department Town of Southern Planning Department
Data and Trends Moore County Resident Live Births: Flat/downward trend since 2004 MCS Month-2 ADM: Upward trend since 2008-09 +133 K-12/year
Data and Trends Density Map 2013-14 MCS K-12 Students
Residential Units (est.) Development (Developer) Municipality Approx. Acreage Est. # Units Abingdon Square Pinehurst 16 41 Arbor Place Pinehurst 12 50 Course #8 Pinehurst 172 200 Development (Developer) Legends at Morganton Park Pine Needles Village (PUD) Tyler's Ridge Apartments Municipality Southern Southern Southern Approx. Acreage Est. # Units 15 288 500 750 40 270 East Lake @ CCNC Pinehurst 130 90 Hall of Fame Pinehurst 19 9 Linden Clos Pinehurst 20 19 Development (Developer) McAllister tract Pinehurst 32 27 Dormie Golf Club Traditions of Old Town Pinehurst 4 20 Villas at Forest Hills Pinehurst 18 73 Walker Station Pinehurst 16 70 Sinclair Meadows @ Farm Life Pine Forest Golf Club (PUD) Municipality Moore County Moore County Moore County Moore County Approx. Acreage Est. # Units 694 370 30 28 1000 890 255 247
Residential Units (est.) Development (Developer) Arrowstone Aurora Foxcroft PH1 & PH2 Foxcroft PH3 Hardee Lane Heron's Brooke Lake Newbury Ridge Princess Gate Robin's Roost Royal Woods PH3 Whisper Grove Municipality Approx. Acreage Est. # Units Development (Developer) Municipality Approx. Acreage Est. # Units 75 98 Devonshire Aberdeen 30 42 20 7 Forest Hills Aberdeen 100 250 35 35 Laurel Commons off Glen Aberdeen 15 60 34 35 Legacy Lakes Aberdeen 400 1218 130 130 Martin Land Aberdeen 80 200 70 67 Pit Partners Aberdeen 233 700 35 67 Ransdell Land Aberdeen 500 1000 25 54 Sandy Springs Aberdeen 180 280 5 6 Shepherds West Aberdeen 30 125 75 96 Speight Investments Aberdeen 152 152 17 23
Residential Units
GIS Analysis Planning Segments are the basic blocks for OREd analysis. 210 Planning Segments Average 60 K-12 students/segment Student Generation Ratio (SGR) Average over all developed lots = 0.28 std/lot Average over residential developments included in Land Use data = 0.53 std/lot Example of Planning Segment 578 parcels 572 residential parcels 505 developed parcels 73 K-12 students SGR = 0.14 std/lot
Membership Forecast Membership forecasts are based on: Historical membership data How do students advance through the K-12 system? Land Use data What and where are the growth potentials?
Membership Forecast Some divergence in forecast models. OREd forecast uses Cohort-Feeder model (projected 1.06% annual growth).
Membership Forecast 10-year Gain: K-5 = 700 6-8 = 280 9-12 = 450 K-12 = 1440
2013-14 Moore County Schools Out-of-Capacity Table (11/19/2013)
2013-14 IPSAC Limited Land Use Study Refer to Operations Research and Education Laboratory 2013-14 IPSAC Limited Land Use Study Report Moore County Schools for additional details.
Moore County Schools 2013-14 IPSAC Limited Land Use Study OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORY INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND EDUCATION CENTENNIAL CAMPUS @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY NOVEMBER 20, 2013