NATIONAL SUMMARY OF AERIAL CENSUS RESULTS FOR ELEPHANT IN ZIMBABWE: 2001 K.M. Dunham & C.S. Mackie WWF - SARPO Occasional Paper Number 1 June 2002 This census was carried out jointly by the Department of s and Wild Life Management and WWF-SARPO (WWF Project No: ZW 0025). This report has also been published by the Department of s and Wild Life Management. The 2001 aerial survey and this publication were made possible through support made available by the Office of USAID Harare under the terms of project 613-0241 and grant 690-0251-4-9001-00. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of USAID. This material has been produced by the authority of, and for the use of CAMPFIRE in Zimbabwe, for information purposes only.
SUMMARY The principal populations of elephants in Zimbabwe were surveyed from the air during the period July to October 2001. These populations are located in north-west Matabeleland, the Sebungwe region, the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley and the south-east lowveld. The total area surveyed was 66 651 km 2. This was the first time since 1998 that all these populations were studied during the same year. The surveys were sample counts and the methods followed those used during previous surveys. The Save Valley Conservancy was included in the national elephant survey for the first time. There were estimated to be 88 123 elephants (+/- 95 % confidence interval 8.0 %, or 7079 elephants) in the regions surveyed from the air. This was the highest and most precise estimate ever obtained for the total number of elephants in Zimbabwe s principal populations. The lower and upper confidence limits of this mean estimate were 81 044 and 95 202 elephants. There are known to be several small sub-populations of elephants occurring outside these survey areas, and estimates or guesstimates of the numbers of animals in these subpopulations were obtained from people familiar with them. Elephants occurred at 12 locations outside the survey regions and the total number of elephants in these sub-populations was probably about 1000. Thus, there were estimated to be, in total, 89 123 elephants in Zimbabwe during the 2001 dry season. It is more practical to take account of the confidence limits for the estimate from the air surveys and state that there were between about 82 000 and 96 000 elephants in Zimbabwe during the 2001 dry season. Almost 90 % of these were in the Parks & Wild Life Estate and about 50 % were in Hwange. In the regions surveyed from the air, there were, in total, an estimated 86 fresh carcasses of elephants, 186 recent carcasses and 3209 old carcasses. Overall, these carcasses formed 3.8 % of all elephants (live and dead) estimated to be in these regions. The carcass ratio varied from 1.7 % in the Save Valley Conservancy to 5.8 % in the Sebungwe. 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY...1 LIST OF TABLES...3 LIST OF MAPS...5 INTRODUCTION...6 METHODS...6 Aerial Surveys...6 Survey Areas...6 Transect Surveys...6 Block Counts...9 Data Analysis...9 Small Populations...10 RESULTS...10 Small Populations...10 Aerial Surveys...13 North-west Matabeleland...13 Zambezi Valley...13 Sebungwe...13 South-east Lowveld...13 Zimbabwe...16 Elephant Carcasses...16 REFERENCES...17 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...18 APPENDIX. Tables of population estimates and statistics for elephants, elephant bulls, elephants in cow herds, and elephant carcasses in Zimbabwe during 2001. Population estimates by region (Tables 5-10) and by administrative area (Tables 11-16)....24 Notes about Tables...24 2
LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Summary of sampling statistics for the 2001 aerial surveys...8 Table 2. Definitions of categories used to record time since death for elephant carcasses...8 Table 3. Status of small populations of elephants during the dry season of 2001...11 Table 4. Summary of the population estimates for elephants in Zimbabwe during 2001...14 Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001...25 Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001...25 Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001...25 Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001...26 Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001...26 Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001...26 Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for elephants, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...27 Save Valley Conservancy...27 Gonarezhou...27 North-west Matabeleland...27 Zambezi Valley...28 Sebungwe...28 Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...29 Save Valley Conservancy...29 Gonarezhou...29 North-west Matabeleland...29 Zambezi Valley...30 Sebungwe...30 Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...31 Save Valley Conservancy...31 Gonarezhou...31 North-west Matabeleland...31 Zambezi Valley...32 Sebungwe...32 Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...33 Save Valley Conservancy...33 Gonarezhou...33 North-west Matabeleland...33 Zambezi Valley...34 Sebungwe...34 Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...35 3
Save Valley Conservancy...35 Gonarezhou...35 North-west Matabeleland...35 Zambezi Valley...36 Sebungwe...36 Table 16. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...37 Save Valley Conservancy...37 Gonarezhou...37 North-west Matabeleland...37 Zambezi Valley...38 Sebungwe...38 4
LIST OF MAPS Map 1. The survey region in north-west Matabeleland of Zimbabwe....19 Map 2. The survey region in the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley of northern Zimbabwe. 20 Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe...21 Map 4. The survey regions in the south-east lowveld of Zimbabwe...22 Map 5. The density and distribution of elephants in Zimbabwe during the dry season of 2001, in relation to land use....23 5
INTRODUCTION In order to assess the status of the elephant population in Zimbabwe, sample aerial surveys of the principal sub-populations were conducted during the 2001 dry season. This was the first time since 1998 that all principal sub-populations were surveyed during the same year. The methods used closely followed those utilised during earlier surveys, so that the results of the 2001 surveys are comparable with those from previous surveys. The Save Valley Conservancy was included in the national air survey programme for the first time. There are known to be several sub-populations of elephant outside the regions surveyed from the air. But there are relatively few elephants in these sub-populations and so it would not have been cost-effective to include them in the air survey programme. Nevertheless, an attempt is made here to consider these small sub-populations when deriving an estimate of the total number of elephants in Zimbabwe. 6 METHODS Aerial Surveys Survey Areas Elephant populations were surveyed from the air in five regions of Zimbabwe, namely northwest Matabeleland, Gonarezhou, Save Valley Conservancy, the Sebungwe, and the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley. The procedures used followed those well established for aerial surveys of African large herbivores (Norton Griffiths 1978) and utilised during earlier surveys of elephants in Zimbabwe. Detailed reports of the 2001 surveys are provided by Dunham (2002a,b,c) and Mackie (2002a,b). The entire survey area covered 66 651 km 2 and was divided into 86 strata (subdivisions) (Table 1). Strata boundaries were drawn so that elephant density within a stratum was spatially uniform, and the boundaries were the same as those used during previous surveys. Transect Surveys Regularly-spaced, parallel transects (flight lines) were positioned across each stratum in areas of generally flattish ground. These areas included all of the north-west Matabeleland, Gonarezhou and Save Valley Conservancy, the Zambezi Valley floor and all of the Sebungwe except for the hills of Matusadona NP and Kanyati. Transect surveys were undertaken during the period 14 August 6 October 2001. Transects were arranged at right angles to the principal environmental feature within a stratum for example, transects crossed major river systems. Within each stratum, transect orientation was the same as that used during previous surveys. Sampling intensity (i.e. the percentage of the study area that was actually surveyed) varied between regions and, in each region, was similar to that used during previous surveys. The distance between adjacent transects varied between strata, according to the planned sampling intensity in each stratum. The latter was determined by predicting that the elephant density in each stratum would be similar to that observed during any surveys in 1997, 1998 and/or 1999 (see Gibson (1992) for method). As a consequence, those strata expected to contain large numbers of elephants were
sampled more intensively (i.e. transects were closer together) than strata expected to contain few elephants. Transect spacings generally varied from 1.5 km in strata expected to contain many elephants, to 10 km in strata expected to contain few. The Save Valley Conservancy was expected to contain relatively few elephants. Nevertheless, sampling intensity was high, in part because this was the first time that this region had been included in the national elephant census. Through this survey, it was hoped to provide good baseline data for the planning of future surveys. In addition, a high sampling intensity should increase the precision of the population estimates for elephants (and other large herbivores). Surveys were designed using software that was custom-written by WWF for this purpose. Given the latitude/longitude co-ordinates that describe a stratum boundary, the transect orientation, the transect spacing and a random number, this software generates transects (flight lines), with the first transect offset from the end of the stratum by a random distance. The start and end points for each transect were transferred as waypoints to a GPS receiver in the aircraft (a Cessna 206) prior to flying each stratum. During surveys, the plane was flown at approximately 160 km per hour at about 300 feet above ground level (agl). The aircraft crew consisted of four people, who could talk to one another through an intercom system. The crew were: the pilot, who was responsible for flying the plane and navigating along the transects, by reference to the GPS receiver. the recorder, who sat next to the pilot and was responsible for recording: the actual height of the aircraft every 30 seconds while flying along transects (from a radar altimeter); the time taken to fly each transect (using a stopwatch); the number of elephants seen by observers and, for each group, its GPS location and the time since the start of the transect. two experienced observers, who sat behind the pilot and recorder. The observers were responsible for: looking for elephants and carcasses, and counting those seen within the counting strips; calling all sightings of these to the recorder; differentiating groups of elephant bulls from cow herds (although the latter may have included some bulls); classifying the age since death for elephant carcasses (see Table 2 for details). On each side of the plane, a counting strip was defined by two fibreglass rods that were attached to the wing strut, so that the rods pointed backwards and parallel to the ground during level flight. The distance between the rods on each strut was arranged so that, when the aircraft was flying at 300 feet agl, the distance represented a strip about 150 m wide on the ground. Each rod was marked with a small piece of tape to provide the observers with a decision point (at this point the observer decided whether an animal was in or out of the strip). For each regional survey, the strip widths were calibrated by flying the aircraft at right angles across an airstrip that had large-sized numbers arranged at 10 meter intervals along the side of the airstrip. Each observer noted the largest and smallest number within his strip and the recorder noted the aircraft s height. The nominal combined strip width at 300 feet agl was determined by averaging the combined strip widths, after adjusting these to 300 feet agl. The nominal strip widths for the regional surveys are given in Table 1. 7
Region Table 1. Summary of sampling statistics for the 2001 aerial surveys Area Dates Number of strata (km 2 ) sampled Percent of area sampled Mean combined strip width at 300 feet agl (meters) Transect surveys Block count s Total 8 Mean search intensity (minutes km -2 ) Save Valley 3484 22.51 332 29 September 4 0 4 1.01 Conservancy 6 October Gonarezhou 5346 14.11 339 (for 2 strata) 25 29 August 8 0 8 0.96 359 (for 6 strata) North-west 25072 7.83 317 9 22 23 0 23 1.01 Matabeleland September Zambezi 17127 15.48 315 15 July 14 13 12 25 1.08 Valley September Sebungwe 15622 13.81 324 19 July 30 August 24 2 26 1.06 Totals 66651 km 2 72 14 86 - Table 2. Definitions of categories used to record time since death for elephant carcasses Carcass category Definition 1 Fresh: intact; white droppings of vultures visible; vegetation trampled; fluid stain on ground around carcass visible (animal likely to have died within the last 3 months). 2 Recent: pieces of hide still attached; skeleton still partly articulated; no vulture droppings; no trampled vegetation; no fluid stain evident (less than 1 year old, but generally since the last rainy season, i.e. 3 to 8 months old). 3 Old: bones scattered and bleached (probably died during or before the last rainy season, i.e. more than 8 months old but generally more than 1 year old and up to several years old).
Block Counts In hilly areas (the Chewore Hills and the hills south of the Zambezi escarpment, stretching from Matusadona NP in the west to Mavuradonha Wilderness Area in the east), block counts were used to count elephants. Blocks of land were defined on 1:50 000 scale maps using features, such as drainage lines or watersheds, that would be recognisable from the air. The area of these blocks was usually 5-25 km 2. Blocks to be counted were selected with a probability proportional to their area (by using random numbers as map co-ordinates). Consequently, large blocks were more likely to be selected for counting than small blocks. A pilot and one observer/recorder in a Piper Super Cub aircraft searched each block until it was believed that all elephants within it were seen. The recorder noted the number of elephants and elephant carcasses, and the time taken to search each block. Block counts were undertaken during the period 19 July 8 August 2001. 9 Data Analysis For strata surveyed with transects, the estimated number of elephants (and carcasses) in a stratum and the confidence intervals of the estimates were calculated with WWF s custom software (using method 2 of Jolly (1969)). The software determined the actual combined strip width for each transect from the mean flying height for that transect and the nominal combined strip width at 300 feet agl. Transect area was the product of the actual combined strip width and transect length. The mean density of elephants in a stratum was calculated from the numbers of elephants seen within strips and the transect areas. The population estimate was the product of the mean density and the stratum area. For strata surveyed with block counts, population estimates and confidence intervals were calculated similarly (using method 3 of Jolly (1969)). Population estimates for the entire study area, the five survey regions within it and for various administrative units within those regions were calculated as the sum of the estimates for the individual strata within each land unit. The 95 % confidence interval (CI) of the population estimate for any land unit that comprised more than one stratum was calculated using the method of Gasaway et al. (1986). From the confidence interval, lower and upper 95 % confidence limits to the population estimate were calculated. The 95 % confidence limits can be interpreted to indicate that: there is a 95 % certainty that the true number of elephants lies between the lower and upper limits; or that there is just one chance in twenty that the true number of elephants lies outside the range defined by the lower and upper limits. Strata boundaries did not always coincide with the boundaries of administrative areas and some compromises have been made in this part of the analysis. For example, in the tables that accompany this report, Hwange includes Deka Safari Area, and the Dande stratum includes Dande Safari Area and some communal land: in this analysis, it is included within Guruve Communal Area, because safari hunting rights in Dande SA are leased to Guruve Rural District Council. Search intensity (in minutes per square kilometre) for a stratum was calculated as the total time spent flying all transects (or blocks) within that stratum, divided by the total area of those transects (or blocks). The greater the search intensity, the less the probability that observers did not observe animals that were within the strips. No corrections have been applied to any of the estimates to compensate for any undercounting or missed animals.
The carcass ratio (really a percentage) was calculated as the estimated number of all elephant carcasses as a percentage of the estimated number of all elephants, i.e. live elephants plus dead ones (Douglas-Hamilton et al. 1992). 10 Small Populations Biologists, managers, owners and/or safari operators working in areas occupied by the small populations of elephants not surveyed from the air were asked to provide their assessment of the status of the elephant population during the 2001 dry season (ideally, during September). The assessment included: up to three estimates of the number of elephants (minimum number, probable number and maximum number); any information to support these estimates (for example, sightings or survey data); the composition of the population (for example, bulls, cow herds, or both); and the elephants distributional range and/or seasonal movements. Captive elephants were excluded from this assessment. RESULTS Small Populations Outside the regions surveyed from the air, there were estimated to be about 535 elephants at nine locations for which fairly precise estimates were available (Table 3). There were another three locations (Limpopo River, Nyatana Area and Kavira Forest Land) for which reliable information was lacking and the stated elephant numbers were no more than guesses: there might be another 450 elephants in these areas. Thus, there were, in total, about 1000 elephants in the locations not covered by the air surveys. The elephant bulls on Protea Farm moved there from, presumably, the Zambezi escarpment hills, while the Shangani bulls are believed to have come from the Hwange area. The origins of the bulls near Plumtree are not known, but elephants on Sentinel and Nottingham Ranches moved there from Botswana during 1991-1992 (Selier 2001). Elephants were reintroduced to the Bubiana, Bubi and Chiredzi River Conservancies within the last decade. Malilangwe Conservancy is adjacent to Gonarezhou NP and the elephants there form part of the Gonarezhou population.
11 Table 3. Status of small populations of elephants during the dry season of 2001 Site Number of elephants Composition Authority Notes (see Map 5 for locations) Minimum Probable Maximum Shangani Ranch 45 60 80 Bulls C.M. Swanepoel 1. Group of 43 bulls seen by ranch staff during August 2001. 2. Number varies seasonally: fewer animals seen during wet season. Bubiana Conservancy 50-60 100 Bulls & cow herds Malilangwe Conservancy & Hippo Valley Estates Game Section 116 Bulls & cow herds Hartley Safari Area 100 120 Bulls & cow herds Chiredzi River Conservancy Protea Farm (30 km north of Karoi) M. Jones 1. Approximately 100 elephants before land invasion by squatters. 2. Unknown number of animals known to have moved off since land invasions. S. Clegg 116 and 105 elephants seen during two total-area surveys by helicopter during September 2001. A. Van Eeden 1. Saw a single herd (family unit) of about 100 there during May 2001 and again during early November 2001. 2. Saw a herd of 8 bulls during May 2001 and a group of 12 bulls was seen by another hunter. 28 28 Bulls & cows T. Ballance 1. 25 elephants released as calves during 1992 drought. 2. Three calves born during 2001. 3. One or two bulls wander through each year (from Gonarezhou NP?). 7 7 Bulls A. Van Leenhoff & C. Mackie 7 bulls seen by C.M. during July 2001
Site Number of elephants Composition Authority Notes (see Map 5 for locations) Minimum Probable Maximum Bubi River Conservancy 53 Bulls & cow herds K. Leathem 1. 37 are translocated animals and their offspring, and some bulls that arrived naturally. 2. Other 16 are bulls that moved from Sentinel Ranch area during first quarter of 2001. Shashe River, Tuli Safari Area, Maramani Communal Land, and Sentinel & Nottingham Ranches Home Farm & Greystone Ranches (40 km southsouth-east of Plumtree) Limpopo River, Chikwarakwara area, Sengwe Communal Land Nyatana Wildlife Management Area 92 Bulls & cow herds J. Selier (2001) Total-area survey by plane during July 2001, with flight strips 1 km wide (narrower over thick riverine vegetation). Saw 4 bulls & 78 elephants in cow herds on Sentinel & Nottingham Ranches, 10 elephants along the Shashe River in Mambali Communal Land, and no elephants in Tuli Safari Area or Maramani Communal Land. Part of a population which, during July 2001, numbered >1238 animals and was centred on the Botswana s Northern Tuli Game Reserve. 3 or 4 Bulls G. Robertson Fresh footprints of 3 or 4 young-adult bulls seen in bed of Ingwizi River during July 2001 200? Bulls? A. Strauss Regular movement of elephants across Limpopo River, between this area and South Africa s Kruger NP. 150? Bulls & cows R. Gwazani & F. Murindagomo (2001) Kavira Forest Land +? Bulls & cow herds E. Mufandaedza, D. Littleton 12 These authors believe that there are 75 males and 75 females in this area, but, on the basis of all the surveys conducted during 2001, a 1:1 sex ratio is very unlikely. Thus, the figure of 150 is probably little more than a guess. But the authors did find elephant dung along transects in the area and so the presence of elephants is confirmed. 1. Elephants present, but no estimate of numbers. 2. During dry season of 2000, bulls and cow herds present, totalling about 100 animals.
Aerial Surveys Summaries of the results of the aerial surveys are given in Tables 5-16, which provide estimates of the numbers of elephants, bulls, elephants in cow herds and elephant carcasses in each region (Tables 5-10) and in each administrative area (Tables 11-16). Detailed results are contained in the separate survey reports (Dunham 2002a,b,c, Mackie 2002a,b). The major findings of the study are presented below and in Table 4. 13 North-west Matabeleland The largest population of elephants in Zimbabwe was in north-west Matabeleland, where there were an estimated 49 310 elephants (+/- CI 6088). Most (90 %) of these were in Hwange NP (Map 1). Hwange NP contained an estimated 44 492 (+/- CI 5838) elephants, which represented 50 % of Zimbabwe s elephant population. Not only was the number of elephants in the national park very large, but the density of elephants, which averaged 2.9 elephants km -2, was greater here than in any other national park or safari area in Zimbabwe. The elephants in north-west Matabeleland form part of a larger population that Zimbabwe shares with northern Botswana. Zambezi Valley There were an estimated 19 297 elephants (+/- CI 2522) in the Zambezi Valley survey region, which stretched from Kariba dam eastwards to the Mavuradonha hills (Map 2). This total included 3708 elephants (+/- CI 925) in Mana Pools NP and another 3174 (+/- CI 1518) in the communal areas (including Dande Safari Area). The elephants in the Zambezi Valley survey region form part of a larger population that Zimbabwe shares with the Lower Zambezi NP in Zambia and the Magoe district of Mozambique. Sebungwe There were estimated to be 13 989 elephants (+/- CI 2124) in the Sebungwe region, south of Lake Kariba (Map 3). This total included 4033 elephants (+/- CI 1110) in the Kariba, Binga and north Gokwe communal areas and another 5011 (+/- CI 1219) in Chizarira NP. Elephant density in this national park averaged 2.4 elephants km -2. Only in Hwange NP was a greater density than this recorded during 2001. Unlike the other elephant populations in Zimbabwe, the Sebungwe population is largely closed, being isolated by Lake Kariba, human settlement, and areas of communal and commercial agriculture. South-east Lowveld There were estimated to be 4992 elephants (+/- CI 1637) in the Gonarezhou area and 535 elephants (+/- CI 322) in the Save Valley Conservancy (Map 4). Together with 116 elephants in Malilangwe Conservancy and 28 in Chiredzi River Conservancy, these form the south-east lowveld population. But most (88 %) of the elephants in this region were in Gonarezhou NP, where the population was estimated to be 4987 (+/- CI 1637) elephants. The eastern boundary of this national park is the international border with Mozambique and elephants in Gonarezhou NP are free to cross it. The elephants in the south-east lowveld formed just 6 % of Zimbabwe s total elephant population.
14 Area or Land Use Category Table 4. Summary of the population estimates for elephants in Zimbabwe during 2001 Population estimate for: NP / SA Land use Region category Population estimate as percentage of regional population estimate Population estimate as percentage of national population estimate North-west Matabeleland Hwange NP 44492 90.2 49.9 Zambezi NP 656 1.3 0.7 Matetsi/Kazuma/Panda Masuie 3545 7.2 4.0 Parks & Wild Life Estate 48692 98.7 54.6 Communal Areas 64 0.1 0.1 Forest Areas/Private Land 553 1.1 0.6 NW Matabeleland region 49310 100.0 55.3 Zambezi Valley Mana Pools NP 3708 19.2 4.2 Safari Areas 12403 64.3 13.9 Parks & Wild Life Estate 16110 83.6 18.1 Communal Areas / Mavuradonha WA 3187 16.5 3.6 Zambezi Valley region 19297 100.0 21.7 Sebungwe Chizarira NP 5011 35.8 5.6 Matusadona NP 1716 12.3 1.9 Safari Areas 3196 22.8 3.6 Parks & Wild Life Estate 9923 70.9 11.1 Communal Areas 4033 28.8 4.5 Forest Area 33 0.2 0.04 Sebungwe region 13989 100.0 15.7
15 Area or Land Use Category Population estimate for: NP / SA Land use Region category Population estimate as percentage of regional population estimate Population estimate as percentage of national population estimate South-east Lowveld Gonarezhou NP 4987 87.9 5.6 Malapati SA 5 0.1 0.01 Parks & Wild Life Estate 4992 88.0 5.6 Save Valley Conservancy 535 9.4 0.6 Malilangwe & Chiredzi R. Conserv. 144 2.5 0.2 Communal Area 0 0 0 South-east Lowveld region 5671 100.0 6.4 Other locations Hartley SA 120 14.0 0.1 Tuli SA 0 0 0 Parks & Wild Life Estate 120 14.0 0.1 Other 736 86.0 0.8 Other locations 856 100.0 1.0 Total for Parks & Wild Life Estate 79839 89.6 % Total Population Estimate for Zimbabwe 89123 Note: There may be small errors in the totals in this table, due to rounding estimates to zero decimal places
Zimbabwe There were estimated to be 88 123 (+/- CI 7079) elephants in the five aerial survey regions, plus approximately 1000 elephants outside these. Thus, during the 2001 dry season, there were estimated to be between about 82 000 and 96 000 elephants in Zimbabwe. Almost 90 % of these were in the Parks & Wild Life Estate (Map 5). The figure of 88 123 elephants in the air survey regions is the highest ever estimate. The methods utilised were the same as those used during previous aerial surveys and so it is clear that the number of elephants within the country is continuing to increase (see Price Waterhouse Consultants (1996) for previous estimates). 16 Elephant Carcasses Relatively few fresh or recent carcasses were seen (Tables 8 & 9). Carcass ratios varied regionally, from 1.7 % in the Save Valley Conservancy, to 5.8 % in the Sebungwe and the mean carcass ratio was 3.8 % (Table 10). This low ratio also suggests that the number of elephants in Zimbabwe is increasing, because a ratio of 2-8 % usually indicates a stable or increasing population number, while a ratio greater than 8 % is indicative of a declining population number (Douglas-Hamilton et al. 1992). Carcass ratios greater than 8 % were recorded in Zambezi, the southern part of Matetsi Safari Area, Chete Safari Area and the Binga communal lands (Table 16). In the other areas where the carcass ratio exceeded 8 % (Malapati SA, Sikumi Forest and the communal lands east of Hwange NP, and Mavuradonha Wilderness Area), few elephants live or dead were seen and hence the sample sizes may be too small to calculate reliable ratios.
REFERENCES Douglas-Hamilton, I., Michelmore, F. & Inamdar, A. (1992). African Elephant Database. UNEP, Nairobi. Dunham, K.M. (2002a). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Gonarezhou and some bordering lands, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 80, WWF- SARPO, Harare. Dunham, K.M. (2002b). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in north-west Matabeleland, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 81, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Dunham, K.M. (2002c). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in the Save Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 79, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Gasaway, W.C., DuBois, S.D. Reed, D.J. & Harbo, S.J. (1986). Estimating moose population parameters from aerial surveys. Biological Papers of the University of Alaska 22. 108 pp. Gibson, D. (1992). Formulae for aerial survey analysis. In: Elephant management in Zimbabwe. Second edition. Eds Martin, R.B., Craig, G.C., Booth, V.R. & Conybeare, A.M.G. pp. 67-68. DNPWLM, Harare. Gwazani, R. & Murindagomo, F. (2001). Nyatana Wildlife Management Area (NWMA) Resource Inventory. WWF-SARPO, Harare. Jolly, G.M. (1969). Sampling methods for aerial censuses of wildlife populations. E. Afr. Agric. For. J. 34: 46-49. Mackie, C. (2002a). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 77, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Mackie, C. (2002b). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Sebungwe Region, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 78, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Norton Griffiths, M. (1978). Counting Animals. Second edition. African Wildlife Leadership Foundation, Nairobi. Price Waterhouse Consultants. (1996). Elephant census in Zimbabwe: 1980 to 1995. An analysis and review. PWC, Harare. Selier, J. (2001). Final Report on the Progress of the Central Limpopo Valley Elephant Research Project. Unpublished report. Centre for Wildlife Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. 17
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following staff members of the DNPWLM served as observers or recorders during the aerial surveys: Mr Ngoni Cheweshe; Mr David Chipesi; Ms Tracy Couto; Mr Bruce Davison; Mr Crispin Jakopo; Mr Norman Monks; and Mr Fungai Muroki. The survey planes were piloted by Mr Jon Cadd and Mr Charles Mackie. The following people provided information about small populations of elephants: Mr Tore Ballance; Mrs Sarah Clegg; Mr Mike Jones; Mr Kevin Leathem; Mr Derek Littleton; Mr Edward Mufandaedza; Mr Graham Robertson; Ms Jeanetta Selier; Mr Alec Strauss; Dr Clive Swanepoel; Mr Andre Van Eeden; and Mr Alex Van Leenhoff. Dr Ivan Bond of WWF SARPO managed the aerial survey programme, but still retained his sense of humour. He and Dr Russell Taylor reviewed drafts of this report and the regional survey reports. The survey programme was funded by USAID. Additional support for the Gonarezhou survey was provided by the Malilangwe Conservation Trust, and for the Save Valley Conservancy survey by the International Finance Corporation (SME programme). 18
19-18 -19 Land use Safari Area Communal Area Private Land Forest Land Elephant density (per sq. km) 0 0.01-0.50 0.51-1.00 1.01-2.00 2.01-6.00-20 26 27 Map 1. The survey region in north-west Matabeleland of Zimbabwe. Map shows (from north to south) Zambezi, Kazuma Pan and Hwange s; the northern and southern sections of Matetsi Safari Area, and Deka Safari Area; and Panda Masuie, Kazuma, Sikumi and Ngamo Forest Areas. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
20-16.0-16.5 29.0 Elephant density (per sq. km) Land use 0 0.01-0.50 0.51-1.00 1.01-2.00 2.01-3.50 30.0 Safari Area Communal Land Private Land Communal Land Wilderness Area 31.0 Map 2. The survey region in the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley of northern Zimbabwe. Map shows Mana Pools, Mavuradonha Wilderness Area and (clockwise from south-west) Charara, Hurungwe, Sapi, Chewore, Dande and Doma Safari Areas. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
21 Land use Safari Area Communal Land Private Land Forest Area -17 Elephant density (per sq. km) 0 0.01-0.50 0.51-1.00 1.01-2.00 2.01-3.50-18 28 29 Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe. Map shows (from north to south) Matusadona and Chizarira s, Chete and Chirisa Safari Areas, and Sijarira Forest Area. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
22-20 -21-22 Land use Safari Area Communal Area Private Land Conservancy Elephant density (per sq. km) 0 0.01-0.50 0.51-1.00 1.01-2.00 32 Map 4. The survey regions in the south-east lowveld of Zimbabwe. Map shows Gonarezhou, Malapati Safari Area and the Save Valley Conservancy. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
23 Land use Safari Area Communal Land Commercial Land Forest Land Conservancy Resettlement Area 1 2 4 3 5 6 11 13 Elephant density (per sq. km) 0 0.01-0.50 0.51-1.00 1.01-2.00 2.01-6.00 7 8 9 10 12 15 14 Map 5. The density and distribution of elephants in Zimbabwe during the dry season of 2001, in relation to land use. Site 1, Protea Farm; site 2, Nyatana Wildlife Management Area; site 3, Hartley Safari Area; site 4, Kavira Forest Land; site 5, Shangani Ranch; site 6, Home Farm and Greystone Ranches; site 7, Mambali Communal Land; site 8, Tuli Safari Area; site 9, Maramani Communal Land; site 10, Sentinel and Nottingham Ranches; site 11, Bubiana Conservancy; site 12, Bubi Valley Conservancy; site 13, Chiredzi River Conservancy; site 14, Malilangwe Conservancy; site 15, Sengwe Communal Land
APPENDIX. Tables of population estimates and statistics for elephants, elephant bulls, elephants in cow herds, and elephant carcasses in Zimbabwe during 2001. Population estimates by region (Tables 5-10) and by administrative area (Tables 11-16). 24 Notes about Tables 1. Confidence intervals and confidence limits are 95 % confidence intervals and limits. No. seen is the number seen in the strips during the surveys. 2. There may be small errors in the totals given in some tables. These are rounding errors: estimates, variances and sums were calculated with great precision in a spreadsheet, before being rounded to zero decimal places. 3. Abbreviations are as follows: Abbreviation Meaning CA Communal Area CI Confidence Interval Confidence Limit FA Forest Area NP NW Mat North-west Matabeleland PWE Parks & Wild Life Estate SA Safari Area SVC Save Valley Conservancy WA Wilderness Area ZV Zambezi Valley
Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley 535 120 26403 60.2 213 857 0.15 Conservancy Gonarezhou 4992 728 647475 32.8 3355 6628 0.93 NW Matabeleland 49310 4917 9458898 12.3 43222 55398 1.97 Zambezi Valley 19297 3000 1617587 13.1 16776 21819 1.13 Sebungwe 13989 2253 1146215 15.2 11865 16113 0.90 Totals 88123 11018 12896580 8.0 81044 95202 1.32 25 Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley 31 7 134 74.0 8 54 0.01 Conservancy Gonarezhou 718 108 12829 31.8 490 946 0.13 NW Matabeleland 8538 806 314205 13.0 7429 9647 0.34 Zambezi Valley 2062 303 57077 23.4 1579 2546 0.12 Sebungwe 2661 420 63802 19.0 2156 3166 0.17 Totals 14011 1644 448047 9.4 12692 15330 0.21 Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley 504 113 26269 63.8 182 825 0.15 Conservancy Gonarezhou 4273 620 634647 38.0 2651 5896 0.80 NW Matabeleland 40772 4111 9144693 14.7 34785 46759 1.63 Zambezi Valley 17237 2697 1551404 14.3 14768 19706 1.01 Sebungwe 11329 1833 1073508 18.1 9273 13385 0.73 Totals 74115 9374 12430522 9.4 67164 81065 1.11
Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Survey Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 Conservancy Gonarezhou 13 2 77 133.5 0 31 0.002 NW Matabeleland 46 3 1019 149.8 0 116 0.002 Zambezi Valley 14 2 95 140.3 0 34 0.001 Sebungwe 12 2 113 187.8 0 35 0.001 Totals 86 9 1304 88.1 10 161 0.001 26 Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Survey Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 Conservancy Gonarezhou 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 NW Matabeleland 58 4 759 98.0 1 114 0.002 Zambezi Valley 30 4 273 113.4 0 63 0.002 Sebungwe 99 15 911 61.2 38 160 0.006 Totals 186 23 1943 47.0 99 274 0.003 Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Survey Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Carcass Ratio Save Valley 9 2 32 125.5 0 20 0.003 1.7 Conservancy Gonarezhou 159 24 1235 44.1 89 229 0.03 3.3 NW Matabeleland 1536 123 30421 22.7 1187 1884 0.06 3.2 Zambezi Valley 749 89 9725 27.0 547 951 0.04 3.9 Sebungwe 756 119 6115 20.5 601 911 0.05 5.8 Totals 3209 357 47528 13.5 2777 3640 0.05 3.8
Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for elephants, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 27 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC 535 120 26403 60.2 213 857 0.15 Area Gonarezhou Estimate No. seen Varianc e % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP 4987 727 647452 32.8 3350 6624 1.01 Safari Area Malapati SA 5 1 23 197.6 0 15 0.03 Communal Area Mahenye Ward 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Totals 4992 728 647475 32.8 3355 6628 0.93 Area Estimat e North-west Matabeleland No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan NP/FA 482 30 75471 146.6 0 1188 0.86 Matetsi SA north 2517 304 536646 60.7 989 4045 1.79 Matetsi SA south 546 31 68898 113.7 0 1167 0.29 s Hwange NP 44492 4475 8667030 13.1 38654 50329 2.92 Zambezi NP 656 52 45234 76.6 153 1159 1.21 PWE subtotals 48692 4892 9393279 12.5 42625 54760 2.48 Communal Areas Maitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Tsholotsho CA 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.07 CA subtotals 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.02 Forest Areas Ngamo Forest 149 6 6676 152.2 0 376 0.13 Sikumi Forest 404 17 57315 140.0 0 971 0.35 FA subtotals 553 23 63991 105.4 0 1137 0.24 NW Mat Totals 49310 4917 9458898 12.3 43222 55398 1.97
Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 28 Mana Pools NP 3708 579 205847 24.9 2783 4632 1.70 Safari Areas Hurungwe SA 3745 539 358941 32.7 2521 4968 1.23 Sapi SA 1991 318 111229 34.6 1302 2679 1.80 Chewore SA 5741 959 349714 20.7 4551 6932 1.69 Charara SA 590 117 41046 75.6 144 1036 0.35 Doma SA 336 54 38156 124.8 0 755 0.34 PWE subtotals 16110 2566 1104934 12.9 14032 18189 1.30 Communal Areas Guruve CA 2946 375 489615 50.6 1455 4437 0.79 Mukwichi CA 228 54 22860 156.5 0 586 0.68 CA subtotals 3174 429 512475 47.8 1657 4692 0.78 Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA 13 5 179 264.6 0 47 0.01 ZV Totals 19297 3000 1617587 13.1 16776 21819 1.13 Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP 5011 836 357171 24.3 3792 6230 2.40 Matusadona NP 1716 337 94717 46.1 925 2507 1.21 Safari Areas Chirisa SA 1977 320 309752 59.7 797 3157 1.29 Chete SA 1219 165 76516 47.3 642 1796 0.97 PWE subtotals 9923 1658 838156 18.5 8092 11754 1.58 Forest Area Sijarira Forest 33 2 382 253.4 0 117 0.12 Communal Areas North Gokwe CA 791 131 100443 86.5 106 1476 0.26 Binga CA 869 93 39603 47.2 459 1279 0.31 Kariba CA 2373 369 167631 35.1 1541 3205 0.74 CA subtotals 4033 593 307677 27.5 2923 5143 0.44 Sebungwe Totals 13989 2253 1146215 15.2 11865 16113 0.90
Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 29 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC 31 7 134 74.0 8 54 0.01 Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP 712 107 12805 32.0 484 940 0.14 Safari Area Malapati SA 5 1 23 197.6 0 15 0.03 Communal Area Mahenye Ward 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Totals 718 108 12829 31.8 490 946 0.13 North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan 112 7 16408 292.9 0 442 0.20 NP/FA Matetsi SA north 389 43 14878 64.7 137 641 0.28 Matetsi SA south 144 10 2961 89.1 16 273 0.08 s Hwange NP 7311 714 256982 13.8 6306 8317 0.48 Zambezi NP 227 18 7254 88.7 26 429 0.42 PWE subtotals 8184 792 298483 13.2 7103 9266 0.42 Communal Areas Maitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Tsholotsho CA 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.07 CA subtotals 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.02 Forest Areas Ngamo Forest 99 4 3951 175.6 0 274 0.09 Sikumi Forest 190 8 10143 125.2 0 428 0.16 FA subtotals 290 12 14094 91.3 25 554 0.12 NW Mat Totals 8538 806 314205 13.0 7429 9647 0.34
Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 30 Mana Pools NP 610 90 12406 37.7 380 840 0.28 Safari Areas Hurungwe SA 471 66 8220 39.0 287 654 0.15 Sapi SA 196 30 1859 45.5 107 285 0.18 Chewore SA 329 52 6052 48.3 170 489 0.10 Charara SA 88 19 1446 91.2 8 168 0.05 Doma SA 7 1 50 214.5 0 22 0.01 PWE subtotals 1701 258 30032 20.2 1357 2045 0.14 Communal Areas Guruve CA 348 40 26866 106.5 0 719 0.09 Mukwichi CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 CA subtotals 348 40 26866 106.5 0 719 0.09 Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA 13 5 179 264.6 0 47 0.01 ZV Totals 2062 303 57077 23.4 1579 2546 0.12 Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP 811 136 19733 36.5 515 1107 0.39 Matusadona NP 315 64 2183 30.5 219 411 0.22 Safari Areas Chirisa SA 340 55 20829 94.6 18 662 0.22 Chete SA 185 25 2797 59.5 75 295 0.15 PWE subtotals 1651 280 45542 26.3 1217 2085 0.26 Forest Area Sijarira Forest 33 2 382 253.4 0 117 0.12 Communal Areas North Gokwe CA 155 23 3055 74.4 40 270 0.05 Binga CA 367 40 7252 47.5 193 541 0.13 Kariba CA 455 75 7571 38.2 281 629 0.14 CA subtotals 977 138 17878 27.1 712 1242 0.11 Sebungwe Totals 2661 420 63802 19.0 2156 3166 0.17
31 Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC 504 113 26269 63.8 182 825 0.15 Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP 4272 620 634647 38.0 2649 5895 0.86 Safari Area Malapati SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Communal Area Mahenye Ward 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Totals 4273 620 634647 38.0 2651 5896 0.80 North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan 369 23 59064 169.1 0 994 0.66 NP/FA Matetsi SA north 2128 261 521768 71.1 616 3639 1.51 Matetsi SA south 401 21 65936 151.3 0 1009 0.21 s Hwange NP 37180 3761 8410048 15.5 31430 42931 2.44 Zambezi NP 429 34 37980 107.4 0 890 0.79 PWE subtotals 40508 4100 9094796 14.7 34537 46479 2.06 Communal Areas Tsholotsho CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Maitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 CA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Forest Areas Ngamo Forest 50 2 2725 291.7 0 195 0.04 Sikumi Forest 214 9 47172 239.9 0 728 0.18 FA subtotals 264 11 49897 200.3 0 792 0.11 NW Mat Totals 40772 4111 9144693 14.7 34785 46759 1.63
Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 32 Mana Pools NP 3098 489 194156 29.0 2199 3996 1.42 Safari Areas Hurungwe SA 3276 473 351150 36.9 2066 4486 1.07 Sapi SA 1795 288 109371 38.0 1112 2477 1.63 Chewore SA 5412 907 337929 21.6 4242 6582 1.59 Charara SA 502 98 36999 84.3 79 925 0.30 Doma SA 329 53 36191 124.1 0 737 0.34 PWE subtotals 14411 2308 1065796 14.2 12370 16453 1.16 Communal Areas Guruve CA 2598 335 462749 55.8 1148 4048 0.69 Mukwichi CA 228 54 22860 156.5 0 586 0.68 CA subtotals 2826 389 485609 52.0 1356 4296 0.75 Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 ZV Totals 17237 2697 1551404 14.3 14768 19706 1.01 Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP 4200 700 337438 28.2 3016 5384 2.02 Matusadona NP 1403 273 83517 53.0 660 2146 0.99 Safari Areas Chirisa SA 1637 265 288924 69.3 503 2771 1.07 Chete SA 1033 140 73719 54.8 467 1599 0.82 PWE subtotals 8273 1378 783598 21.4 6503 10043 1.32 Forest Area Sijarira Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Communal Areas North Gokwe CA 636 108 97388 106.0 0 1310 0.21 Binga CA 501 53 32350 74.3 129 873 0.18 Kariba CA 1919 294 160172 42.5 1104 2734 0.60 CA subtotals 3056 455 289910 35.3 1976 4136 0.34 Sebungwe Totals 11329 1833 1073508 18.1 9273 13385 0.73
Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 33 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP 14 2 77 126.8 0 32 0.003 Safari Area Malapati 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Communal Area Mahenye Ward 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Totals 14 2 77 126.8 0 32 0.002 North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 NP/FA Matetsi SA north 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Matetsi SA south 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Hwange NP 46 3 1019 149.8 0 116 0.003 Zambezi NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 PWE subtotals 46 3 1019 149.8 0 116 0.002 Communal Areas Tsholotsho CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Maitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 CA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Forest Areas Ngamo Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Sikumi Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 FA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 NW Mat Totals 46 3 1019 149.8 0 116 0.002
Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 34 Mana Pools NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Safari Areas Hurungwe SA 7 1 49 200.6 0 22 0.002 Sapi SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Chewore SA 7 1 46 209.3 0 21 0.002 Charara SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Doma SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 PWE subtotals 14 2 95 140.3 0 34 0.00 Communal Areas Guruve CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Mukwichi CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 CA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 ZV Totals 14 2 95 140.3 0 34 0.001 Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Matusadona NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Safari Areas Chirisa SA 6 1 80 337.2 0 26 0.004 Chete SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 PWE subtotals 6 1 80 337.2 0 26 0.001 Forest Land Sijarira Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Communal Areas North Gokwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Binga CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Kariba CA 6 1 33 198.1 0 18 0.002 CA subtotals 6 1 33 198.1 0 18 0.001 Sebungwe Totals 12 2 113 187.8 0 35 0.001
Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 35 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Safari Area Malapati SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Communal Area Mahenye Ward 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Totals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 NP/FA Matetsi SA north 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Matetsi SA south 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 s Hwange NP 45 3 598 113.2 0 96 0.003 Zambezi NP 13 1 161 237.5 0 43 0.02 PWE subtotals 58 4 759 98.0 1 114 0.003 Communal Areas Tsholotsho CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Maitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 CA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Forest Areas Ngamo Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Sikumi Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 FA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00
Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 36 NW Mat Totals 58 4 759 98.0 1 114 0.002 Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Mana Pools NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Safari Areas Hurungwe SA 30 4 273 113.4 0 63 0.01 Sapi SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Chewore SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Charara SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Doma SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 PWE subtotals 30 4 273 113.4 0 63 0.002 Communal Areas Guruve CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Mukwichi CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 CA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 ZV Totals 30 4 273 113.4 0 63 0.002 Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP 30 5 178 93.4 2 58 0.01 Matusadona NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Safari Areas Chirisa SA 6 1 83 343.5 0 27 0.004 Chete SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 PWE subtotals 36 6 261 92.1 3 69 0.01 Forest Land Sijarira Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 Communal Areas North Gokwe CA 12 2 53 131.0 0 28 0.004 Binga CA 28 3 447 160.9 0 73 0.01 Kariba CA 23 4 150 107.0 0 48 0.01 CA subtotals 63 9 650 82.5 11 115 0.01 Sebungwe Totals 99 15 911 61.2 38 160 0.01