Education Research Brief Australia s PISA Results 212 Trevor Cobbold December 213 SAVE OUR SCHOOLS http://www.saveourschools.com.au https://twitter.com/sosaust 1
Australia s PISA 212 Results At a Glance 1. Australia continues to have high average results, but there have been significant declines in reading and mathematics [Chart 1]. The large part of the decline in reading occurred between 2 and 2; since then the average score has been stable. There has been a very significant decline in the average mathematics score since 23 which is equivalent to about half a school year. There was a small decline in science between 2 and 212, all of which occurred between 29 and 212. There was a very small decline in reading between 29 and 212. 2. Australia has slipped down the international league table in reading and mathematics but there was only minor drop in the case of science. In 29, Australia was outperformed by countries in reading, 12 countries in mathematics and countries in science. In 212, Australia was outperformed by 9 countries in reading, 1 countries in mathematics and 7 countries in science. 3. Australia s advantage over the average results for the OECD has narrowed in each subject [Chart 2]. Australia was over half a school year ahead of the OECD in reading, mathematics and science in 2, 23 and 2, respectively. The advantage in reading and mathematics narrowed to less than half a school year in 212. 4. Large declines in reading and mathematics occurred in all states and territories, except Victoria [Chart 4]. There were very large declines in mathematics in Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, ACT and Northern Territory. 5. Catholic schools had the largest declines of any school sector in reading, mathematics and science between 29 and 212 [Chart ]. Government schools had the lowest average decline across reading, mathematics and science. All sectors experienced significant declines in mathematics. The decline in reading in government schools was marginal and similar to that in Independent schools. The decline in mathematics in government schools was larger than in Independent schools, but smaller in the case of science. These trends are consistent with a recent study by the Melbourne Institute for Applied Economic and Social Research which showed that falling results in private schools largely contributed to the decline in reading and mathematics results between 2 and 29.. There were significant declines in the percentage of students at the most advanced levels in private schools between 29 and 212, but little change in government schools [Table 3]. The percentage at the advanced reading levels fell from 14 to 11% in Catholic schools compared to no decline in government schools, while the percentage for Independent schools dropped from 22 to 2%. The declines in the percentage at the most advanced mathematics levels were also larger in Catholic and Independent schools than in government schools: from 17% to 14% in Catholic schools and from 25 to 23% in Independent schools compared to a very small decline in government schools from 14 to 13%. There was also a larger decline in the percentage of Independent schools at the most advanced science levels from 25 to 21% compared to very small declines in government and Catholic schools. 2
7. Average results in reading, mathematics and science are similar across Government, Catholic and Independent schools after allowing for differences in student and school socio-economic status. 8. Average results declined by similar amounts at all levels of achievement in mathematics between 23 and 212. Scores at the 1 th and 25 th percentiles declined by 17 and 23 points respectively, while the decline for the 75 th and 9 th percentiles was 21 and 14 points respectively. There was no change in scores at different achievement levels in science between 2 and 212. There were significant declines in reading at the top levels between 23 and 2 but little change between 2 and 212. There was little change in scores at the bottom levels between 2 and 212. 9. A significant proportion of all students are below the international proficiency benchmarks [Chart 7]. Fourteen per cent of students are below the reading proficiency benchmark, 2% are below the mathematics benchmark, and 13% are below the science benchmark. There has been a significant increase in the proportion below the mathematics benchmark since 23, from 14 to 2%. There was a small increase in the percentage below the reading benchmark, but this increase occurred between 2 and 2 [Table 1]. 1. The average mathematics results for the lowest SES quartile declined by about half a school year since 2 with smaller declines for the other quartiles [Chart 9]. There was little change in the average reading results across all SES quartiles and small declines in science in the lowest quartiles and the highest quartile [Charts 1 & 11]. 11. Average reading results for remote area students declined by about half a school year since 2 and average mathematics results for remote area and Indigenous students declined by over half a school year [Charts 9-11]. 12. There are large inequalities in school outcomes in Australia: a. The range of scores between the highest and lowest achieving students is high by international standards [Chart 12]; b. There are very large achievement gaps between low SES, Indigenous and remote area students and high SES students [Chart 13]: i. Low SES students are about two and a half years behind high SES students in reading, mathematics and science; ii. Indigenous students are three or more years behind high SES students; iii. Remote area students are two and a half to three years behind high SES students. c. High proportions of low SES, Indigenous and remote area students performing at the lowest levels [Chart 14]: i. 23% of low SES students not achieving the reading and science proficiency benchmarks and 33% are not achieving the mathematics benchmark compared with 5-8% of high SES students; ii. 51% of Indigenous students are not achieving the mathematics benchmark and 37 and 39% are not achieving the reading and science benchmarks, respectively; iii. 3-39% of remote area students are not achieving benchmarks. d. Very low proportions of low SES, Indigenous and remote area students performing at the highest levels [Chart 15]: 3
i. 4-5% of low SES students are achieving at the most advanced levels compared to 23-27% of high SES students; ii. Only 2% or less of Indigenous students and 5-% of remote area students are achieving at the most advanced levels. 13. Inequities in school outcomes have not decreased since 2 and have increased in several instances: a. The achievement gap between low SES and high SES students increased in mathematics and remained much the same in reading and science [Chart 13]; b. The gaps between Indigenous and high SES students and between remote area and high SES students increased in reading and mathematics [Chart 13]; c. There were large increases in the percentage of low SES, Indigenous and remote area students below the mathematics benchmark [Chart 1]. 4
535 53 525 52 515 51 55 5 495 49 Chart 1: Mean Scores for 15 Year-Old Students, Australia, PISA 2-212 529 525 524 527 527 52 513 2 23 2 29 212 515 514 521 512 54 54 53 52 51 5 49 529 Chart 2: Mean Scores for 15 Year-Old Students, Australia & OECD, PISA 2-212 5 512 49 524 5 54 494 527 521 5 51 48 47 2 212 23 212 2 212 Australia OECD 5
7 Chart 3: Mean Scores for 15 Year-Old Students, Australia, PISA 212 5 4 3 2 1 NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT AUST OECD Highest Country 1 Chart 4: Change in Mean Scores for 15 Year-Old Students, Australia, PISA 2-212 -1 NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT AUST -2-3 -4-5 Note: Change for Mathematics is from 23 and for Science from 2
Reading Mathematics Science Reading Mathematics Science Reading Mathematics Science 58 5 54 52 5 48 4 44 Chart 5: Mean Scores by 15 Year-Old Students by School Sector, Australia, PISA 29-212 497 495 499 489 511 5 532 523 527 514 54 532 553 551 548 541 5 559 Government Catholic Independent 29 212-2 -4 - Chart : Change in Mean Scores for 15 Year-Old Students by School Sector, Australia, PISA 29-212 -2-2 -5-8 -1-12 -9-1 -7-7 -8-14 -13 Government Catholic Independent 7
4 Chart 7: Percentage of 15 Year-Old Students Below Proficiency Benchmark, Australia, PISA 212 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 NSW VIC QLD WA SA Tas ACT NT AUST OECD Highest Country Chart 8: Percentage of 15 Year-Old Students at Most Advanced Levels, Australia, PISA 212 5 4 3 2 1 NSW VIC QLD WA SA Tas ACT NT AUST OECD Highest Country 8
7 Chart 9: Mean Mathematics Scores by SES, Indigenous & Remote Students, Australia, 2-212 (PISA Point Scale) 5 4 51 51 55 53 51 483 53 53 521 492 471 43 48 45 442 441 444 417 3 2 1 2 29 212 Lowest SES Second SES Third SES Highest SES Indigenous Remote 7 Chart 1: Mean Reading Scores by SES, Indigenous & Remote Students, Australia, 2-212 (PISA Point Scale) 5 4 557 52 557 529 532 529 53 54 51 473 471 471 472 45 452 434 43 428 3 2 1 2 29 212 Lowest SES Second SES Third SES Highest SES Indigenous Remote 9
7 Chart 11: Mean Science Scores by SES, Indigenous & Remote Students, Australia, 2-212 (PISA Point Scale) 5 4 572 577 57 54 545 54 51 515 51 485 481 479 474 479 47 441 449 44 3 2 1 2 29 212 Lowest SES Second SES Third SES Highest SES Indigenous Remote 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Chart 12: Score Range Between Highest and Lowest Achieving 15 Year-Old Students, PISA 212 NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT AUST OECD Highest Country 1
Low/High SES Indigenous/High SES Remote/High SES Provincial/High SES Low/High SES Indigenous/High SES Remote/High SES Provincial/High SES Low/High SES Indigenous/High SES Remote/High SES Provincial/High SES 14 12 1 8 4 2 84 8 Chart 13: Achievement Gaps Between Equity Groups and High SES Students, Australia, 2-212 (PISA Point Scale) 129 123 85 15 7 55 87 78 133 119 1 93 4 54 87 88 131 127 98 97 58 51 2 212 5 Chart 14: Percentage of Equity Group Students Below Proficiency Benchmark, Australia, PISA 212 51 4 3 23 39 3 33 39 23 23 37 27 2 14 18 13 18 18 13 15 13 1 5 8 5 Low SES High SES Indigenous Non-Indigenous Remote Provincial Metropolitan 11
3 25 23 Chart 15: Percentage of Equity Group Students at Most Advanced Levels, Australia, PISA 212 27 24 2 15 1 5 4 17 15 13 12 14 1 1 7 5 5 5 2 2 15 Low SES High SES Indigenous Non-Indigenous Remote Provincial Metropolitan 14 12 Chart 1: Change in the Percentage of Equity Group Students Below Proficiency Benchmark, Australia, 2-212 11 12 11 1 8 4 2-2 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1-4 -3 Low SES High SES Indigenous Non-Indigenous Remote Provincial Metropolitan 12
Table 1: Percentage of 15 Year-Old Students Below Proficiency Benchmark, Australia, PISA 2-212 2 212 23 212 2 212 NSW 8 15 14 19 13 14 VIC 15 11 17 2 13 14 QLD 15 15 17 2 12 13 WA 12 12 9 1 1 11 SA 12 15 11 23 12 15 Tas 19 21 18 2 2 2 ACT 11 13 11 1 11 12 NT 23 28 22 3 22 2 AUST 12 14 14 2 12 13 Table 2: Percentage of 15 Year-Old Students at Most Advanced Levels, Australia, PISA 2-212 2 212 23 212 2 212 NSW 18 13 2 17 17 17 VIC 14 11 1 12 11 11 QLD 1 11 18 15 13 12 WA 22 13 27 18 19 1 SA 19 8 23 1 15 11 Tas 1 7 14 9 11 1 ACT 25 15 27 18 21 17 NT 1 15 7 13 9 AUST 18 12 2 15 15 14 Table 3: Percentage of 15 Year-Old Students at Advanced & Low Levels, by School Sector, Australia, PISA 29-212 29 212 29 212 29 212 Level 5 & Above Government 1 1 14 13 12 11 Catholic 14 11 17 14 14 13 Independent 22 2 25 23 25 21 Level 1 & Below Government 19 18 21 25 17 18 Catholic 8 9 1 14 7 9 Independent 5 5 8 9 5 5 13