US Economic Indicators: Home Prices November 28, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Median & Average Home Prices 1 New Home Prices 2 Existing Home Prices 3-9 FHFA Home Price Indexes 1-11 November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
33 31 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 39 37 3 33 31 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 1.4 1.3 Figure 1. MEDIAN SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES (thousand dollars, 12-month moving average) 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 AVERAGE SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES (thousand dollars, 12-month moving average) Existing Prices (24.) New Home Prices (316.6) 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 NEW SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICE (as a ratio of existing home price) Median & Average Home Prices Existing Prices (286.4) New Home Prices (374.7) 33 31 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 39 37 3 33 31 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 7 1.4 1.3 1.2 Average (1.3) Median (1.3) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1. 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: Bureau of the Census and National Association of Realtors. 1. Page 1 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Figure 2. NEW HOME PRICES: SINGLE-FAMILY (thousand dollars, 12-month moving average) 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. New Home Prices Average Price (374.7) Median Price (316.6) 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 2 1 Figure 3. NEW HOME SINGLE-FAMILY PRICES (yearly percent change in 12-month moving average) 2 1 1 1 Median Price (4.2) Average Price (4.8) -1-1 -1 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. -1 Page 2 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
Existing Home Prices 3 28 Figure 4. EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES (thousand dollars, 12-month moving average) 3 28 26 26 24 24 22 Average Price (286.4) 22 2 Median Price (24.) 2 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 4 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: National Association of Realtors. 6 4 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16 Figure. EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES (yearly percent change in 12-month moving average) Median Price (6.) Average Price (4.7) 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: National Association of Realtors. 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16 Page 3 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Figure 6. EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES (thousand dollars, nsa) 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: National Association of Realtors. Existing Home Prices Average Price (289.3) Median Price (248.3) 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 2 Figure 7. EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES (yearly percent change) 2 2 1 1 1 1-1 Median Price (.4) Average Price (4.6) -1-1 -2 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: National Association of Realtors. -1-2 Page 4 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
Existing Home Prices 2 23 21 Figure 8. HOME PRICES (ratio scale) 2 23 21 19 17 Existing Single-Family Median Home Price (thousand dollars, 12-ma, ratio scale) 19 17 1 13 FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only (Q1-1991=1, sa) 1 13 11 11 9 9 7 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 7 22 2 HOME PRICE (ratio scale, nsa) 22 2 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 1 S&P/Case-Shiller 2 Metros Home Price Index (Jan 2=1) 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 12 1 32 27 EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE (thousand dollars, ratio scale, nsa) 32 27 22 Single-Family Existing 22 Median 17 Mean 17 12 12 7 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 Source: National Association of Realtors, Macro Markets, and Haver Analytics. 7 Page / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
Existing Home Prices 16 14 12 1 Figure 9. S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX (Jan 2=1, nsa) Atlanta Dallas 2 18 16 14 8 12 6 1 21 18 1 Boston 12 9 6 3 Denver 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 16 14 12 Charlotte Detroit 14 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 17 26 1 12 1 7 Chicago Las Vegas 22 18 14 1 6 2 14 12 1 Cleveland Los Angeles 3 2 8 1 6 Source: Macro Markets. Page 6 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
3 3 2 2 1 1 Figure 1. S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX (Jan 2=1, nsa) Miami Existing Home Prices San Diego 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 17 1 12 Minneapolis San Francisco 27 22 17 1 12 7 7 2 2 2 2 2 1 New York Seattle 1 1 1 27 2 22 2 17 12 Phoenix Tampa 1 7 1 2 27 2 22 2 17 1 12 1 7 Portland Washington DC 3 2 2 1 1 Source: Macro Markets. Page 7 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
Existing Home Prices 3 2 1-1 -2 Figure 11. S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Atlanta Dallas 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 2 2 1-1 Boston Denver 1-2 -1 1 3-1 Charlotte Detroit 2 1-1 -2-1 -3 2 6 1 4-1 Chicago Las Vegas 2-2 -2-4 1 4 2-1 -1 Cleveland Los Angeles -2-4 Source: Macro Markets. Page 8 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
Existing Home Prices 4 3 1-1 -3 Figure 12. S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Miami San Diego 4 2-2 -4-4 2 4 1-1 -2 Minneapolis San Francisco 2-2 -3-4 2 2 1 1-1 New York Seattle -1-2 -2 6 4 2-2 -4 Phoenix Tampa 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 3 3 2 2 1-1 -2 Portland Washington DC 1-1 -2 Source: Macro Markets. Page 9 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
31 28 2 22 19 16 13 1 Figure 13. FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX: PURCHASE ONLY (Q1 1991=1, sa) United States 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 FHFA Home Price Indexes South Atlantic 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 New England 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 East South Central 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 9 Middle Atlantic 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 West South Central 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 29 27 2 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 23 21 19 17 1 13 11 East North Central 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 Mountain 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 36 33 3 27 24 21 18 1 12 3 2 2 1 1 West North Central 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 Pacific 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 3 27 24 21 18 1 12 9 Source: Federal Housing Finance Administration. Page 1 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
FHFA Home Price Indexes 3 2 1-1 Figure 14. FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX: PURCHASE ONLY (yearly percent change) United States South Atlantic 2 1-1 -2 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19-2 1 1 1 New England East South Central -1 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1 1 1 Middle Atlantic West South Central -1 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1 2 1 East North Central Mountain -1-1 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19-2 1 3-1 West North Central 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 Pacific 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 2 1-1 -2-3 Source: Federal Housing Finance Administration. Page 11 / November 28, 217 / US Economic Indicators: Home Prices www.
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