Winning the 47 percent and the future gets Obama back

Winning the 47 percent and the future gets Obama back Recommendations based on major new research October 9, 2012

2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on four focus groups, dial groups, and a national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund. Four focus groups were held among married and unmarried women in Fairfax, Virginia and Columbus, Ohio on September 24 th and 25 th. During the first presidential debate on October 3 rd, swing voters in Denver, Colorado were continuously dialed to get moment-by-moment reactions. After the debate, two break-out groups were held, including one among unmarried women. The survey of 1000 likely 2012 voters (800 weighted) nationwide was conducted from September 26-30, 2012, including an oversample of 200 likely voters in the presidential battleground. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.46 percentage points at 95% confidence for results from the national survey.

Before the Debate: State of the Race 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 3

Widening gap on partisan favorability Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Barack Obama Democratic Party Democrats in Congress Republican Party Republican Congress 2010 Election 56 53 53 55 51 51 51 51 54 51 52 52 51 51 51 50 50 51 51 50 50 50 50 49 49 48 48 49 49 48 48 48 47 48 47 49 47 46 46 47 47 46 46 48 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 44 47 46 44 44 46 44 46 44 44 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 44 43 44 43 44 42 44 42 43 44 44 43 43 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 41 42 42 41 43 43 43 42 43 41 41 41 40 42 43 42 41 41 42 41 41 42 41 39 41 41 39 40 39 39 40 40 39 1/12/2010 4/20/2010 7/29/2010 10/16/2010 2/9/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/30/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past two years. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters. 4

Obama, Democrats continue to enjoy favorability gap with Romney, Republicans Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. President Congress Parties Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 54.4 Mean: 43.6 Mean: 44.5 Mean: 38.9 Mean: 48.4 Mean: 42.9 Net: +13 53 Net: -13 Net: -10 Net: -21 Net: -1 37 35 40 31 Net: -13 35 39 19 17 10 21 16 32 37 34 38 29 35 40 50 52 41 48 Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party 5

6 Presidential race opens up in post-convention period Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? 47 Percent video Conventions Late September 48 48 46 46 48 46 48 44 47 48 46 46 48 46 47 49 47 49 50 49 47 46 46 47 50 51 44 51 44 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney

7 Rising American Electorate solidly behind Obama and nearing 2008 levels, but not back yet Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? +30 +29 +24 +54 Goal: 69% Goal: 70% 62 63 Goal: 67% 59 Goal: 83% 73 32 34 35 19 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth Minority

And unmarried women not performing at 2008 levels for Obama, but coming back after convention Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Unmarried women 70 +40 +29 63 30 34 Obama McCain Obama Romney 2008 Post-Election September 2012 Survey 8

9 Opportunity among early voters In the election this year, do you plan on voting on election day on November 6th or do you plan to vote early or absentee prior to election day? Election Day Early/Absentee 67 59 62 61 61 29 36 34 33 36 Nov 6th Early/Absentee Nov 6th Early/Absentee Nov 6th Early/Absentee Nov 6th Early/Absentee Nov 6th Early/Absentee Total Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth Minority

10 Rising American Electorate less engaged overall, driven by young voters. Unmarried women now on par with all voters How closely have you been following news about candidates for this year's presidential election -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very closely 83 87 79 83 70 77 42 38 41 15 All voters Not RAE Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth Minority

11 Unmarried women: engagement increases in postconvention period How closely have you been following news about candidates for this year's presidential election -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very closely 71 79 83 83 29 39 44 41 July August Early Sept Late Sept

Before the debate: Obama gains trust 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12

13 Obama has edge on trust to make decisions, focus on issues important to you Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue. Trust to make the right decisions on the big problems facing the country Focusing on issues important to you +6 Obama much better Romney much better +6 49 49 43 43 38 38 27 27 Obama Romney Obama Romney

Obama needed to make gains on issues important to you Now I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue. Focusing on issues important to you Obama strongly Romney strongly +27 59 58 +19 +21 +54 73 54 32 39 33 47 54 43 54 19 18 23 23 8 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth Minority 14

During debate, unmarried women react like independents and not moved by Obama 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 15

16 Unmarried women close to independent, rather than Democratic line; up with Clinton jobs Bill Clinton tried the approach that I m talking about The approach that Governor Romney's talking about is the same sales pitch that was made in 2001 and 2003, and we ended up with the slowest job growth in 50 years, we ended up moving from surplus to deficits, and it all culminated in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Bill Clinton tried the approach that I'm talking about. We created 23 million new jobs. We went from deficit to surplus. And businesses did very well.

17 But messages leading with past battles for the middle class get flat response You know, four years ago, I said that I'm not a perfect man and I wouldn't be a perfect president. And that's probably a promise that Governor Romney thinks I've kept. But I also promised that I'd fight every single day on behalf of the American people, the middle class, and all those who were striving to get into the middle class. I've kept that promise and if you'll vote for me, then I promise I'll fight just as hard in a second term.

18 While Romney gets large spike when he mentions the economic strain on middle-income Americans The people who are having a hard time right now are middleincome Americans High-income people are doing just fine in this economy. They'll do fine whether you're president or I am. The people who are having the hard time right now are middle- income Americans. Under the president's policies, middle-income Americans have been buried. They're just being crushed. Middle-income Americans have seen their income come down by $4,300. This is a -- this is a tax in and of itself. I'll call it the economy tax. It's been crushing.

Framework to reconnect: Make the country work for the middle class again 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 19

Romney s 47 percent comment feels very personal to unmarried women Romney didn t touch on women s issues at all. That s a big thing for me. To be fair, he is saying he doesn t care. It makes you take a step further does he care about anyone at all? It makes you think about his sincerity. It s hurtful. I am probably one of them 47 percent. By speaking of that 47 percent, he s probably never been in that 47 percent... I work and pay my taxes. I wake up at 4:30 every morning, feed my kids and go to work. 47 percent [comment] was really insensitive. I don t know what he was thinking or feeling. If this is the kind of stuff he says when he doesn t think people are seeing or listening Using the word entitled. I hate that word. He makes 47 percent sound like spoiled brats who sit at home and do nothing. It shouldn t be a dirty word but it is. That word really got to me. *Note: From Democracy Corps focus groups with unmarried women in in Fairfax, VA and Columbus, OH, September 24-25, 2012, and post-debate focus groups with unmarried women in Denver, CO, October 4, 2012 20

Romney extremely vulnerable with these voters Where s the compassion? I think it s insulting. Because there are a lot of people out there who want to work, like us sitting today, we want to be self-supportive. My mom was embarrassed to use food stamps. If she wouldn t have had them, she wouldn t have eaten... The woman couldn t help it. It just bothered me that yes, it was a safety net, but she had enough going on that she didn t need more problems. She was never comfortable with it, ever. He doesn t know who those 47 percent are. Most of them are working people, the working poor, they get up and go to work every day, they aren t victims. The majority of them are Republicans. 47% of non-taxpayers are all lazy good-for-nothings that are dependent on the government and don t take responsibility for themselves? That is a detached comment. That is scary. *Note: From Democracy Corps focus groups with unmarried women in in Fairfax, VA and Columbus, OH, September 24-25, 2012, and post-debate focus groups with unmarried women in Denver, CO, October 4, 2012 21

And they make it clear: women s health and 47% is intermixed with economy and financial pressures It s not right. They shouldn t be limiting health care of women. If you limit her health care then you limit her economic status. Taking away Planned Parenthood so many women depend on that. It s not just teenagers who are out getting pregnant. It s for middle class women who don t have insurance, who have been in a relationship, who aren t married, who can t get married because we have financial issues. It s a great program, and it d be detrimental to get rid of it. For some women, [Planned Parenthood] that s their only source of these kind of [reproductive health] services. In the last three years, there have been a slowing of things moving in the option of women s choices. Because I truly believe if you control a woman s sexual choices, you control her financial choices. This is the first time in ten years that I have had medical coverage, and being part of this 47% we don t count because we don t do anything for ourselves. Don t get rid of Planned Parenthood, it s the only way I can afford birth control. *Note: From Democracy Corps focus groups with unmarried women in in Fairfax, VA and Columbus, OH, September 24-25, 2012, and post-debate focus groups with unmarried women in Denver, CO, October 4, 2012 22

23 47 percent will become most powerful Now I am going to read you some things that some people have written about Mitt Romney. After I read you the list, I want you to tell me which TWO stand out as raising the most doubts about Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney said, "There are 47 percent who are with Obama, dependent upon government and believe that they are victims entitled to health care, food, and housing. My job is not to worry about those people." Percent saying this raises most doubts (top 2) 39 Most of the 47 percent are the children of the working poor, the elderly on Social Security, veterans, and people who are unemployed and struggling to get back to work. Romney's tax plans would raise taxes on low-income Americans and the working poor by 1,400 dollars, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty. Mitt Romney seems ready to change and really cut things like Medicare that those 47 percent depend on. 28 25 32 The problem is not working people paying too few taxes but that big banks get bailed out, wealthy and special interests use loopholes and get breaks to avoid taxes. 25

24 Among unmarried women, 47 percent very powerful Now I am going to read you some things that some people have written about Mitt Romney. After I read you the list, I want you to tell me which TWO stand out as raising the most doubts about Mitt Romney. Among unmarried women Mitt Romney said, "There are 47 percent who are with Obama, dependent upon government and believe that they are victims entitled to health care, food, and housing. My job is not to worry about those people." Percent saying this raises most doubts (top 2) 41 Most of the 47 percent are the children of the working poor, the elderly on Social Security, veterans, and people who are unemployed and struggling to get back to work. 35 The problem is not working people paying too few taxes but that big banks get bailed out, wealthy and special interests use loopholes and get breaks to avoid taxes. 28 Mitt Romney seems ready to change and really cut things like Medicare that those 47 percent depend on. 27 Romney's tax plans would raise taxes on low-income Americans and the working poor by 1,400 dollars, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty. 26

25 Strongest attacks and were heard in debate Now I am going to read you some things that some people have written about Barack Obama. After I read you the list, I want you to tell me which two stand out as raising the most doubts about Barack Obama. Percent saying this raises most doubts (top 2) Fewer Americans are working today than when Obama took office and take home pay has gone down. Obama's policies have hindered small businesses and made it harder for companies to hire again. Under Barack Obama, our economy has lost 582,000 manufacturing jobs because Obama has not stood up to China and for Americans workers who lose out to China's unfair trade practices. The fact is, Barack Obama does not understand business. He has never run a business and does not understand what it takes to create jobs or confidence in the market to make our economy work. President Obama took the work requirement out of welfare. Obama wants to convert the safety net into a system that traps able-bodied people into lives of dependency. 34 29 29 28 Obama's policies are making it harder on women. The poverty rate for women is the highest in 17 years. More than 5 and a half million women can't find work. 18

Obama s making the country work for the middle class again message Now I'm going to read you a statement that Barack Obama might say about our country. After I read this statement, please tell me whether this statement would make you much more likely to vote for Barack Obama, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, no more likely, or less likely to vote for Barack Obama. Rich and poor and rich use power Bill Clinton on your own When I look at our great challenges, I say, we re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are on your own. Well that s given us a country of just rich and poor and the wellconnected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let's keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there. Big future policy offer 26

27 Obama s message to make the country work for the middle class again performs better when combined with 47 percent Now I'm going to read you a statement that Barack Obama might say about our country. After I read this statement, please tell me whether this statement would make you much more likely to vote for Barack Obama, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, no more likely, or less likely to vote for Barack Obama. After 47 percent attacks When I look at our great challenges, I say, we re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are on your own. Well that s given us a country of just rich and poor and the well-connected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let's keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there. Much more likely Somewhat more likely A little more likely Total Unmarried women Rising American Electorate 32 41 49 54 68 72

28 Not as strong as solely focused on war on women attacks Now I'm going to read you a statement that Barack Obama might say about our country. After I read this statement, please tell me whether this statement would make you much more likely to vote for Barack Obama, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, no more likely, or less likely to vote for Barack Obama. After war on women attacks When I look at our great challenges, I say, we re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are on your own. Well that s given us a country of just rich and poor and the well-connected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let's keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there. Much more likely Somewhat more likely A little more likely Total Unmarried women Rising American Electorate 28 34 33 54 64 62

29 Unmarried women react strongly to the 47 percent Now I'm going to read you a statement that Barack Obama might say about our country. After I read this statement, please tell me whether this statement would make you much more likely to vote for Barack Obama, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, no more likely, or less likely to vote for Barack Obama. When I look at our great challenges, I say, we re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are on your own. Well that s given us a country of just rich and poor and the wellconnected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let's keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there. Much more likely Somewhat more likely A little more likely After 47 percent attacks After war on women attacks Total Unmarried women Total Unmarried women 32 28 34 49 54 54 64 72

30 Obama s take the country back for the middle class frame dominates Romney s future frame from debate Now I'm going to read you a statement that Barack Obama/Mitt Romney might say about our country. After I read this statement, please tell me whether this statement would make you much more likely to vote for Barack Obama/Mitt Romney, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, no more likely, or less likely to vote for Barack Obama/Mitt Romney. (OBAMA) When I look at our great challenges, I say, we re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are your own. Well that s given us a country of just rich and poor and the well-connected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let's keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there. Much more likely Somewhat more likely A little more likely 30 54 (ROMNEY) Today, for the first time, most Americans now doubt that our children will have a better future. It's what you deserved, but didn't get. We need a plan to create 12 million new jobs. Let's take advantage of our oil, coal and gas reserves to become energy independent. Let's give the children of today the skills they need to be successful tomorrow, giving every student a choice to attend a good school. Forge new trade agreements, cut the deficit, and reduce taxes and regulations on small businesses. 24 48

And among unmarried women, Obama s take the country back for the middle class frame outperforms Romney s future frame from debate by a huge margin 31 Now I'm going to read you a statement that Barack Obama/Mitt Romney might say about our country. After I read this statement, please tell me whether this statement would make you much more likely to vote for Barack Obama/Mitt Romney, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, no more likely, or less likely to vote for Barack Obama/Mitt Romney. (OBAMA) When I look at our great challenges, I say, we re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are your own. Well that s given us a country of just rich and poor and the well-connected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let's keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there. Much more likely Somewhat more likely A little more likely 41 68 (ROMNEY) Today, for the first time, most Americans now doubt that our children will have a better future. It's what you deserved, but didn't get. We need a plan to create 12 million new jobs. Let's take advantage of our oil, coal and gas reserves to become energy independent. Let's give the children of today the skills they need to be successful tomorrow, giving every student a choice to attend a good school. Forge new trade agreements, cut the deficit, and reduce taxes and regulations on small businesses. 20 42

This future middle class frame pushes RAE to goal When I look at our great challenges, I say, we re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are on your own. Well that s given us a country of just rich and poor and the well-connected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let's keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there. Much more likely Somewhat more likely A little more likely Goal: 69% Goal: 83% Goal: 70% Goal: 67% 65 72 68 65 37 50 41 31 Rising American Electorate Minority Unmarried women Youth 32

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