The Changing Numbers and Composition of Student Enrolment in Europe and Japan

The Changing Numbers and Composition of Student Enrolment in Europe and Japan By Ulrich Teichler and Sandra Bürger Centre for Research on Higher Education and Work University of Kassel, Germany teichler@hochschulforschung.uni-kassel.de Draft, November 2005 1. Introduction The aim of this short text is to show the major changes of student enrolment from the early 1992 onwards until recently. This should provide an information to reflect the possible futures of higher education in the years to come. The overview is primarily based on published OECD statistics. In addition, selected data are taken into consideration published by UNESCO, by various agencies of the European Union (EUROSTAT, EURYDICE), national agencies or unpublished OECD statistics. The analysis focuses on the European OECD member states and Japan. If changes are addressed from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, new European member states of the OECD (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic) have to be excluded as a rule because most OECD statistics do not comprise data of the countries of the early 1990s. 2. Quantitative Expansion The total tertiary education enrolment in Western European OECD member states continued to enrol in the 1990s. It increased from almost 11 million in 1992 (including the subsequent new OECD member states) to almost 15 million in 2002. The number of students in higher education grew during the 1950s at an annual rate of 5% in the European OECD member states and at a rate of almost 8% during the 1960s (Pellegrin 1974). It continued to grow at a similar pace in the early 1970s. During the 1960s and 1970s, various countries established a non-university higher education sector along the university sector, and the umbrella term higher education system substituted the previously widespread term university system. From the mid-1975 to the mid-1985, the quantitative development varied substantially between the European OECD member states. It was very low on average. For the period between the mid-1985 and early 1991, the OECD (1998) observed a new period of massification of tertiary education (now including Tertiary-type 5 education ). From 1992 to 2002, the average annual growth of tertiary education students among the old European member states levelled off to 2 percent. Looking at the individual European OECD countries, the average annual growth rate was 1-3 percent in 5 countries, 3-5 percent in 6 countries, more than 5 percent in 4 countries. From 1992 to 2002, however, a decline occurred in 2 countries, a growth of less 1 percent in 5 countries, 1-3 percent in 5 countries, 1

3-5 percent in none of the countries, more than 5 percent in 3 old OECD members (Greece, Ireland and Turkey as well as in all the four new members from Central and Eastern Europe). Thus, a substantial growth after 1992 took place only in later-comer countries of higher education expansion. In Japan, higher education enrolment increased from 240 thousand in 1950 to 710 thousand in 1960, 1,712 thousand in 1970 to 2,137 thousand in 1975. The change was marginal until 1985 (2,268 thousands); the annual growth was less than 1 percent. From 1985 to 1992, enrolment increased again to 2,873 thousand. The annual growth rate was about 3 percent. Enrolment at Japanese higher education institutions was 3,110 thousand in 2002. The recent annual growth was less than 1 percent. Since 1978, the Japanese statistics also name tertiary education students of those programmes of special training colleges and miscellaneous schools which require 12 years of prior schooling. Thus, the number of tertiary-type B students in Japan were about 500,000 in 2002. Enrolment at this type of tertiary programmes also was very small since 1992. 3. Explaining the Slow Growth of Enrolment 3.1 Major Variables In analysing the overall development of enrolment in tertiary education, we have to take into account: 1. Upgrading of sectors previously not considered tertiary (higher) education: This will not be discussed here because detailed information is not available. 2. Size of age cohort (demographic development), 3. Entry rates, 4. Foreign students/international student mobility, 5. Years of study. 3.2 Demographic Development In the 1950s and 1960s, demographic factors hardly played any role in the public debate on higher education expansion. During the 1970s, the changing size of age cohorts became an important issue in various OECD member states in various way: e.g. debates about declining numbers of percents in typical entry cohorts in the U.S. and on the effects of the post-was baby boom in Germany. Since the 1990s, we note a general concern about the declining size of age cohorts in the majority of economically advanced countries. According to unpublished OECD statistics (2005, Table 5), the number of students in European OECD member states would have declined by 7 percent (country mean) from 1992 to 2002, if changes of student enrolment were determined exclusively by the demographic development. The annual demographic decline, thus, was less than percent on average. In many European OECD member states, a steeper demographic decline is imminent in the future. It is generally assumed that higher education institutions will try to keep their enrolment at least on a status quo level. They will try to achieve this by taking in a larger proportion of the age group, extending study programmes and advanced study, attracting an increasing number of internationally mobile students, extending continuing education. 2

To what extent can this be viewed as a desirable or a questionable development What are the side effects of this development From a macro perspective, a demographic downturn is viewed as possibly providing the opportunity to counterbalance prior deficiencies of resources and funding, thus increasing resources per student, reducing the overall expenditures of tertiary education (in favour of expenditures for research or for other sectors). In most European countries, the demographic downturn was to small in the past to observe clear trends. In Japan, we observe substantial changes of the size of the age cohort. The 18-year old population was 200 thousand in 1960, declined to 140 thousand in 1964, increased dramatically to 249 thousand in 1966, declined to 158 in 154 thousand in 1977, remained more or less on that level until 185 (156 thousand), increased to 205 thousand in 1992, recently declined to 150 thousand in 2002, is expected to decline moderately to 121 thousand in 2009, thereafter will remain more or less constant until 2020. It should be noted that the number of new entrant students in tertiary education in Japan only declined from 1.15 million in 1992 to 1.05 million. Thereby, the number of new entrant students in universities increased. The number of new entrant students at colleges of technology and at tertiary-type B vocational programmes remained more or less constant. In contrast, the number of new entrant students at junior colleges declined form 25 thousand to 11 thousand. 3.3 Entry Rates Entry rates in the European OECD member states have increased from a country mean of less than 5 percent around 1950 (university education) to more than 20 percent around 1970 (higher education) to more than 40 percent in the mid-1990s (tertiary education). The average annual growth of more than 5 percent was in part due to upgrading. In 1991, the entry rate to tertiary education in European OECD member states was 38 percent (country mean), among them 24 percent university education and 14 percent other tertiary education. In 2003, the net entry rate to tertiary education in the old European OECD member states was 62 percent, among them 14 percent in tertiary-type B education and 48 percent in tertiary-type A education. In the new Central and Eastern European OECD member states, the net entry rate was 58 percent. Thus, the entry rate to tertiary education in European OECD member states has increased since the early 1990s at an average rate of about 4 percent annually. The increase of the entry rate was clearly the most important variable explaining the growth of overall enrolment. Actually, it increased more strongly than the overall enrolment. Thus, all other variables together would have led to a decline. In Japan, the entry rate to tertiary education increased from 58 percent in 1991 to 73 percent in 2003. Again, without any increase of the entry rate, the total number of students would have declined. 3

3.4 Foreign Students According to the statistics available, the number of foreign students worldwide increased from about half a million around 1970, almost one million 1980, more than 1.5 million in the mid- 1990s to more than 2 million in recent years (UNESCO statistics). The total number of foreign in European OECD member states was more than 800 thousands in 2003. The average rate of foreign students in old European OECD member states was less than 4 percent in 1990. On average, the number of foreign students named in official statistics doubled in the old European OECD member states from the early 1990s to 2003. The average was in 2003 was about 7 percent of all students in the old European member states and about 6 percent for all European member states. For the old European OECD member states, the increase of foreign students about 4 percent on average of the more than 30 percent average increase of the absolute number of students. However, if we exclude the European countries with a substantial enrolment growth (more than 5% annually since the early 1990s), the growth of about 4 percent of students through the increase of foreign students makes up for one third of the average growth of 12 percent. However, one has to bear in mind that the number of those going abroad for study increased as well. In Japan, the number of foreign students increased from about 40,000 in 1990 to about 60,000 in 2000 and thereafter dramatically to almost 110,000 in 2003. The percentage of foreign students increased from less than 1.5 percent to about 3 percent. It should be noted that UNESCO, OECD and EUROSTAT tend to present data on foreign students. They differ dramatically from mobile students systematically most of all in three respects: Many foreign students lived and learned in the country of study before their enrolled in tertiary education. Most students studying abroad temporarily (e.g. exchange students, ERASMUS students) are not included in the statistics of foreign students. Students returning to the country of citizenship for the purpose of study are not foreign, but mobile students. Some countries collect genuine mobility statistics, and UNESCO, OECD and EUROSTAT recommend the individual countries since 2005 to collect mobility statistics in addition to citizen statistics. 3.5 Length of Study No data are published in the OECD publications on the length of study of those enrolled in higher education. However, OECD publishes the average expected years of education for the total age cohorts. This suggests that an estimate can be achieved easily on the average length of study of those actually enrolling. On the basis of the above presented data on overall students, entry rates, foreign students and size of age cohorts we can estimate that the average length of study certainly has not increased in the 1990s, but it rather has declined moderately. This might be viewed as a surprise given the increase of advanced higher education. One has to bear in mind, though, that there phenomena as well of upgrading from secondary/vocational to tertiary-type B and from tertiary-type B to tertiary-type A. In Japan, the average length of study has increased moderately as a consequence of decline of enrolment in two-year junior colleges and increase of graduate education. This was a more important factor for the overall increase of enrolment than the increase of foreign students. 4

4. Socio-biographic and Educational Background 4.1 Gender Entry to tertiary education by women surpassed that by men during the 1980s on average of the old European OECD member states. In 1991, the mean entry rate was 36.0 percent for men and 39.1 percent for women. Male new entrant students made up for 48 percent of all new entrant students. Of the 16 countries for which information was available, the number of female new entrant students was higher than that of male new entrant students in 10 countries. In 2003, 56.2 percent of men and 68.7 percent of women began tertiary education. Of all new entrant students, 45 percent were men (43% for entry to tertiary-type A and 45% to tertiarytype B education). More women than men began to study in 13 of the 15 countries for which data were available. In Japan, more men begin study in tertiary-type A education (69% in 1991 and 58% in 2003), and more women than men begin study in tertiary-type B education (68% in 1991 and 66% in 2003). Overall, the proportion of men was 49 percent in 1991 and 48 percent in 2003. 4.2 Parental Educational and Socio-Economic Background 4.3 Students Entry Qualification 5. Modes and Paths of Study 5.1 Age at Entry In 2003, we noted the following mean age at entry in 19 European countries: 19.4 years 20 th percentile, 20.6 years 50 th percentile, more than 27 years 80 th percentile. Respective data are not available for the early 1990s. In Japan, no data are available. Data available on years of prior schooling suggest that the 20 th and 50 th percentile are less than 19 years and the 80 th percentile is less than 21 years. Alternative approach: Participation rate by age (). 5.2 Fields of Study In 1992, 43.7 percent of the European university graduates (country mean of 14 countries) were from scientific fields (range from 33.1% to 51%). In 2002, the corresponding figure for tertiary-type A graduates was 43.1 percent. In Japan, the respective figures were 34 percent and 35 percent. Methodological problem: the latter comprises health and welfare in 2002. 5.3 Part-time and Distance Students 5.4 Success Rates 5

5.5 Years of Study to Graduation 6. Graduation and Employment 6.1 Graduation Rate The tertiary graduation rate increased in 12 European member states from 35 percent in 1994 to 44 percent in 2003. The annual rate of increase is almost 3 percent (1994=100) or one percent of the age group. The range of graduation rates was from 14 percent to 70 percent (sic!) in 1994 and from 28 percent to 56 percent in 2003. In 1994, 17 percent graduated with a non-university and 18 percent with a university credential. The respective rates was 11 percent and 33 percent in 2003 (upgrading). In Japan, the graduation rate increased from 52 percent to 59 percent. The university graduation rate from 23 percent to 29 percent. 6.2 Advanced Degrees The definitions of degrees have changed frequently in OECD statistics. Therefore, it is not possible to identify the change of the percentage of graduates of a second, non-research degree. As regards doctoral and similar degrees, definitions changed as well. In 1994, 1.3 percent of the respective age in European OECD member states (country mean) were awarded a Ph.D. or equivalent, In 2003, 1.1 percent graduated from advanced research programmes. In Japan, the rate of doctorates increased from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent during that period. 6.3 Age at Graduation 6.4 Attainment of Tertiary Education In 1992, 16 percent (country mean of 16 countries) of the 25 to 64-year old population in the European OECD member states had attained tertiary education (range from 5% to 25%). This rate increased to 24 percent in 2003 (range from 10% to 34%). This corresponds to an annual rate of increase of more than 3 percent (1992=100) as well as an annual increase of more than half a percent among the adult population. The percentage of tertiary-education trained persons in the age group 55-64 in 2003 was 22 percent and for 32 percent for the 25-34 year-olds. Obviously, a growth of tertiary-education attainment of the adult population can be expected in the future. In Japan, the educational attainment varies more strongly by age than in any European OECD member state a consequence of rapid expansion of higher education. 19 percent of the 55-64 year-olds have attained tertiary education, 33 percent of the 45-54 year-olds, 45 percent of the 35-44 year-olds and 52 percent of the 25-34 years-old. 6.5 Employment - Unemployment The unemployment quota in European OECD member states was 4.7 percent of non-university/tertiary-type B trained persons in 1992 and 3.8 percent in 2003, 4.1 percent of university/tertiary-type A trained persons in 1992 and 4.2 percent in 2003. 6

In comparison: The overall unemployment rate was 7.7 percent in 1992 and 6.1 percent in 2003. In Japan, the unemployment rate was marginal for tertiary education trained persons, It increase to 4.6 percent as regards tertiary-type B education, 2.7 percent as regards tertiarytype A education and 4.9 percent overall education. 6.6 Relative Earnings The relative earnings (100=upper secondary education) have not changed from the early 1990s (1992) to the early 2000 (2003) in the European OECD member states (country mean for 9 and 12 countries): Men non-university/tertiary-type B: 122 and 123, Women non-university/tertiary-type B: 128 and 129, Men university/tertiary-type A: 157 and 156, Women university/tertiary-type A: 156 and 153. 7. Expenditures Total expenditures on tertiary education institutions increased in European OECD member states from 1995 to 2001 by 36 percent, while students increased by 24 percent. Increase of expenditure per student 11 percent (country mean). Japan 19%, 2%, 17% Expenditures on tertiary institutions per student increased in European countries by about 2 percent annually from 1995 to 2001 (country means) and in Japan by about 3 percent (Table 12). 8. Summary (1) Growth in absolute numbers of students levelled off since the early 1990s in most European OECD member states. It remained high only in countries with previously low enrolment rates, while it fall to about 1 percent annually in the countries with previously high rates. (2) Yet, entry rates continued to grow in the European OECD member states at an average annual rate of 4 percent. (3) There was a small decline of the major college-going age cohorts in European OECD member states (about half a percent annually on average). Effects of a substantial demographic decline are only visible in Japan up to now where the number of 18year-olds declined by more than one quarter within ten; more than half of the decline was counterbalanced by an increase of the entry. In addition, students shifted from two-year programmes to four-year programmes, advanced study grew as well as foreign students. (4) The proportion of foreign students grew from 4 percent to 7 percent on average in the European OECD member states. As also the ratio of study abroad increased, though at a lower pace, the net increase of foreign enrolment has remained a relatively small factor for the overall quantitative development for most European OECD member states. (5) The share of women among all tertiary education students increased from 52 percent in the early 1990s to 55 percent in the early 2000s and in Japan from 51 percent to 52 percent. (6) Available data suggest that the composition of students by field of study did not change substantially. (7) OECD data on socio-biographic background, age, length of study are so scarce or change so much in definition over the years that no trend analysis could be realized. It is widely assumed that the student body in tertiary education is getting increasingly diversified. 7

(8) Both the graduation rate and the rate of tertiary education attainment among the adult population increased in European member states since the early nineties on an annual rate of 3 percent (country mean). Further increase can be expected in the near future. (9) The income advantage of tertiary-education trained persons remained unchanged in recent years, while the advantage as far as lower unemployment is concerned was reduced somewhat. (10) Institutional expenditures per tertiary education students increased on average more less in tune with moderate price increases. 8