Raisins: World Markets and Trade

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service September 21 Raisins: World Markets and Trade 1,15 Falling Global Production Pulls Lower 1,1 1, MT 1,5 1, 95 9 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Production Global raisin consumption in 21/11 is forecast to decline 8 percent to 1. million metric tons (MT) and has weakened over the last few years due to lower availability. The EU-27 consumes nearly one-third of the world s raisins and accounts for most of the decline due to tight supplies from Turkey and the United States. Global production is forecast lower, the third year of contraction. The United States is forecast 5 percent lower due in part to mildew problems from cool, wet weather early in the summer. Also, the crop was over two weeks behind normal which is expected to increase the drying ratio and lower production. Turkey is forecast down 8 percent due to a frost in March as well as heavy rains that limited the use of agricultural inputs such as plant protection chemicals. China is forecast 2 percent lower due to damage from a strong windstorm in Turpin, the primary growing region. Partially offsetting these losses, Iran and Chile are forecast up 25 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Global exports are forecast down 6 percent to 66, MT as losses from the United States, Turkey and China more than offset stronger exports from Iran and Chile. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Page 2 U.S. raisin exports are forecast to plunge 35 percent to 11, MT due primarily to low carry-in stocks. Exports were exceptionally strong the previous three years as high inventory levels were drawn down to supply overseas markets. With inventory levels tightening, exports are forecast to return to the pre-27/8 level. As a result, exports to the EU-27, Japan and Canada are expected to decline. 1, MT 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 U.S. Exports Plunge as Carry-in Dwindle 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Carry-in Exports 175 15 125 1 75 1, MT Global import unit values are likely to continue rising as a result of less available supplies. 8 75 7 Global Import Unit Values Continue to Rise Cents per Pound 65 6 55 5 45 4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Source: Global Trade Atlas For further information, please contact Tony Halstead at 22-69-2313, or send an email to Tony.Halstead@fas.usda.gov For additional production, supply, and demand information, you may visit our website at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdhome.aspx. Office of Global Analysis September 21

Raisin Production and Exports 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Sep 21/11 Production Afghanistan 31, 2, 25, 25,3 29, 32, Argentina 25, 36, 33, 3, 36, 37, Australia 3,4 15, 12, 16, 14, 15, Chile 65,5 61,5 67,35 8, 67, 75, China 15, 125, 15, 135, 15, 12, EU-27 3, 2, 1, 1, 12, 1, Iran 155, 13, 15, 6, 1, 125, Mexico 8,2 8,5 8,5 8,5 8,3 8,5 South Africa 36, 41,8 4,2 28, 43, 45, Turkey 25, 28, 25, 31, 26, 24, United States 316,245 274,877 321,143 347,452 294,835 28, Uzbekistan 26, 3, 37, 25,7 26, 3, Total 1,78,345 1,42,677 1,14,193 1,75,952 1,4,135 1,17,5 Exports Afghanistan 25,1 15,5 21, 21,3 25, 28, Argentina 19,1 28,9 23,95 22,2 28,1 29, Australia 7,65 5,7 4,15 4,5 3, 3, Chile 59,4 61,3 65,6 78,3 65, 73, China 18,63 23,621 31,874 27,5 48, 35, EU-27 8,7 8,625 7,45 7,6 9, 9, Iran 123, 13, 117, 4, 78, 1, Mexico 3,14 1,967 3,2 2,8 2,4 2,5 South Africa 23,6 33,83 38,8 23,2 4, 4,5 Turkey 29,2 263,8 25,9 274,9 214, 25, United States 19,5 112,22 152,385 144,295 17, 11, Uzbekistan 2,6 24, 29,7 21,1 21,7 25, Total 626,927 682,463 71,9 667,695 74,2 66, none none Raisin marketing year for producer countries begins in August for northern hemisphere countries and January for southern hemisphere countries. Raisin marketing year for non-producer countries begins in August. Intra-EU trade excluded from EU-27 data. Office of Global Analysis September 21

Raisin Imports and 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Sep 21/11 Imports Afghanistan Algeria 6,6 7,65 7,9 9, 7,3 6,8 Argentina Australia 11,6 27,475 26,85 26,6 26,8 25, Brazil 17,15 19,175 22,7 19,5 27, 25, Canada 34, 32,8 32,5 31,3 29,3 27, Chile 1,35 3 3 2 6 3 China 1,391 12,262 13,6 11,3 13,3 13, Colombia 5,2 5,75 5,95 6, 6,5 6, EU-27 319,15 331,6 349,9 325, 34,5 315, India 8,65 6,9 8,9 9,2 1, 9, Iran Japan 28,95 31,85 32,3 27,3 29,3 27, Malaysia 4,95 5,2 5,25 5,95 6,775 6,3 Mexico 11,69 14,342 13,1 15,5 16,1 15, Morocco 4,85 6,5 5,5 7,5 7,4 7, New Zealand 6,9 7,925 8, 7,4 7,8 7,4 Norway 4, 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,7 4,4 Peru 4,975 5,625 5,625 6,425 6,5 6, Russia 62,6 7,325 7,5 64,5 72,4 68, South Africa 7 3 1 1,1 2,3 2, Switzerland 4, 4, 4,8 4,2 4, 3,7 Taiwan 5,4 5,85 6,325 6,375 7,5 7, Turkey 1, 1, 1, 2,1 2, 1,8 Ukraine 15,475 19,725 2,1 16, 17,8 16,5 United States 21,614 28,868 21,625 19,3 2, 25, Uzbekistan Venezuela 3,6 5,1 7,4 6, 6,2 5,8 Total 594,795 655,122 674,6 632,25 672,75 63, Domestic Afghanistan 5,9 4,5 4, 4, 4, 4, Algeria 6,6 7,65 7,9 9, 7,3 6,8 Argentina 5,9 7,1 9,5 7,8 7,9 8, Australia 34,35 36,775 34,7 38,1 37,8 37, Brazil 17,15 19,175 22,7 19,5 27, 25, Canada 34, 32,8 32,5 31,3 29,3 27, Chile 4,45 3,4 2,7 2,2 2,72 2,3 China 97,328 113,641 131,726 118,8 115,3 98, Colombia 5,2 5,75 5,95 6, 6,5 6, EU-27 34,45 342,975 352,45 327,4 343,5 316, India 8,65 6,9 8,9 9,2 1, 9, Iran 32, 27, 33, 2, 22, 25, Japan 28,95 31,85 32,3 27,3 29,3 27, Malaysia 4,95 5,2 5,25 5,95 6,775 6,3 Mexico 16,876 2,875 18,4 21,2 22, 21, Morocco 4,85 6,5 5,5 7,5 7,4 7, New Zealand 6,9 7,925 8, 7,4 7,8 7,4 Norway 4, 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,7 4,4 Peru 4,975 5,625 5,625 6,425 6,5 6, Russia 62,6 7,325 7,5 64,5 72,4 68, South Africa 13,75 7,52 3,5 5,9 6,8 6,7 Switzerland 4, 4, 4,8 4,2 4, 3,7 Taiwan 5,4 5,85 6,325 6,375 7,5 7, Turkey 26, 36, 69,1 5,377 46, 4, Ukraine 15,475 19,725 2,1 16, 17,8 16,5 United States 248,359 241,525 22,383 242,457 224,835 25, Uzbekistan 5,4 6, 7,3 4,6 4,3 5, Venezuela 3,6 5,1 7,4 6, 6,2 5,8 Total 1,48,63 1,86,286 1,134,434 1,73,984 1,87,63 1,,9 none none Office of Global Analysis September 21

Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution Country Mktg Year Afghanistan 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Algeria 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Argentina 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Australia 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Brazil 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Canada 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Chile 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 China 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Colombia 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 EU-27 26/7 Beginning 4,7 1,17 52 22 1 Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic 2, 25, 25,3 29, 32, 36, 33, 3, 36, 37, 15, 12, 16, 14, 15, 61,5 67,35 8, 67, 75, 125, 15, 135, 15, 12, 2, Ending 2, 15,5 4,5 25, 21, 4, 25,3 21,3 4, 29, 25, 4, 32, 28, 4, 7,65 7,65 7,65 7,9 7,9 7,9 9, 9, 9, 7,3 7,3 7,3 6,8 6,8 6,8 36, 28,9 7,1 33, 23,95 9,5 3, 22,2 7,8 36, 28,1 7,9 37, 29, 8, 27,475 42,475 5,7 36,775 26,85 38,85 4,15 34,7 26,6 42,6 4,5 38,1 26,8 4,8 3, 37,8 25, 4, 3, 37, 19,175 19,175 19,175 22,7 22,7 22,7 19,5 19,5 19,5 27, 27, 27, 25, 25, 25, 32,8 32,8 32,8 32,5 32,5 32,5 31,3 31,3 31,3 29,3 29,3 29,3 27, 27, 27, 3 65,87 61,3 3,4 1,17 3 68,82 65,6 2,7 52 2 8,72 78,3 2,2 22 6 67,82 65, 2,72 1 3 75,4 73, 2,3 1 12,262 137,262 23,621 113,641 13,6 163,6 31,874 131,726 11,3 146,3 27,5 118,8 13,3 163,3 48, 115,3 13, 133, 35, 98, 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,95 5,95 5,95 6, 6, 6, 6,5 6,5 6,5 6, 6, 6, 331,6 351,6 8,625 342,975 Office of Global Analysis September 21

Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution (Continued) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic Ending 27/8 1, 349,9 359,9 7,45 352,45 28/9 1, 325, 335, 7,6 327,4 29/1 12, 34,5 352,5 9, 343,5 21/11 1, 315, 325, 9, 316, India 26/7 6,9 6,9 6,9 27/8 8,9 8,9 8,9 28/9 9,2 9,2 9,2 29/1 1, 1, 1, 21/11 9, 9, 9, Iran 26/7 13, 13, 13, 27, 27/8 15, 15, 117, 33, 28/9 6, 6, 4, 2, 29/1 1, 1, 78, 22, 21/11 125, 125, 1, 25, Japan 26/7 31,85 31,85 31,85 27/8 32,3 32,3 32,3 28/9 27,3 27,3 27,3 29/1 29,3 29,3 29,3 21/11 27, 27, 27, Malaysia 26/7 5,2 5,2 5,2 27/8 5,25 5,25 5,25 28/9 5,95 5,95 5,95 29/1 6,775 6,775 6,775 21/11 6,3 6,3 6,3 Mexico 26/7 8,5 14,342 22,842 1,967 2,875 27/8 8,5 13,1 21,6 3,2 18,4 28/9 8,5 15,5 24, 2,8 21,2 29/1 8,3 16,1 24,4 2,4 22, 21/11 8,5 15, 23,5 2,5 21, Morocco 26/7 6,5 6,5 6,5 27/8 5,5 5,5 5,5 28/9 7,5 7,5 7,5 29/1 7,4 7,4 7,4 21/11 7, 7, 7, New Zealand 26/7 7,925 7,925 7,925 27/8 8, 8, 8, 28/9 7,4 7,4 7,4 29/1 7,8 7,8 7,8 21/11 7,4 7,4 7,4 Norway 26/7 4,6 4,6 4,6 27/8 4,6 4,6 4,6 28/9 4,5 4,5 4,5 29/1 4,7 4,7 4,7 21/11 4,4 4,4 4,4 Peru 26/7 5,625 5,625 5,625 27/8 5,625 5,625 5,625 28/9 6,425 6,425 6,425 Office of Global Analysis September 21

Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution (Continued) Country Mktg Year 29/1 21/11 Russia 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 South Africa 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Switzerland 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Taiwan 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Turkey 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Ukraine 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 United States 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Uzbekistan 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Venezuela 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Beginning 3,25 4, 2, 2, 5 61,924 43,124 19,124 5,947 7,947 23, 18, 15, 13, 5, Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic 41,8 4,2 28, 43, 45, 28, 25, 31, 26, 24, 274,877 321,143 347,452 294,835 28, 3, 37, 25,7 26, 3, Ending 6,5 6,5 6,5 6, 6, 6, 7,325 7,325 7,325 7,5 7,5 7,5 64,5 64,5 64,5 72,4 72,4 72,4 68, 68, 68, 3 45,35 33,83 7,52 4, 1 44,3 38,8 3,5 2, 1,1 31,1 23,2 5,9 2, 2,3 47,3 4, 6,8 5 2, 47,5 4,5 6,7 3 4, 4, 4, 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,2 4,2 4,2 4, 4, 4, 3,7 3,7 3,7 5,85 5,85 5,85 6,325 6,325 6,325 6,375 6,375 6,375 7,5 7,5 7,5 7, 7, 7, 1, 342,924 263,8 36, 43,124 1, 294,124 25,9 69,1 19,124 2,1 331,224 274,9 5,377 5,947 2, 267,947 214, 46, 7,947 1,8 249,747 25, 4, 4,747 19,725 19,725 19,725 2,1 2,1 2,1 16, 16, 16, 17,8 17,8 17,8 16,5 16,5 16,5 28,868 533,745 112,22 241,525 18, 21,625 522,768 152,385 22,383 15, 19,3 516,752 144,295 242,457 13, 2, 444,835 17, 224,835 5, 25, 355, 11, 25, 4, 3, 24, 6, 37, 29,7 7,3 25,7 21,1 4,6 26, 21,7 4,3 3, 25, 5, 5,1 5,1 5,1 7,4 7,4 7,4 6, 6, 6, 6,2 6,2 6,2 5,8 5,8 5,8 Office of Global Analysis September 21

Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution (Continued) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic Ending World World 26/7 299,244 1,42,677 655,122 1,997,43 682,463 1,86,286 228,294 27/8 228,294 1,14,193 674,6 2,7,87 71,9 1,134,434 171,644 28/9 171,644 1,75,952 632,25 1,879,846 667,695 1,73,984 138,167 29/1 138,167 1,4,135 672,75 1,85,377 74,2 1,87,63 58,547 21/11 58,547 1,17,5 63, 1,76,47 66, 1,,9 45,147 Raisin marketing year for producer countries begins in August for northern hemisphere countries and January for southern hemisphere countries. Raisin marketing year for non-producer countries begins in August. Intra-EU trade excluded from EU-27 data. Office of Global Analysis September 21