Skills, Not Just Diplomas Findings from regional report on Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and ongoing World Bank work Presentation at launch Eschborn, Germany Lars Sondergaard, October 25, 2011 www.worldbank.org/eca/skills
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Countries The wake up call: supply hasn t kept up with changes in the demand 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 MNE HUN AZE BIH KOS MKD SRB SVN ARM GEO KGZ ALB BGR TUR Mean = 30.2 TJK UZB CZE EST HRV LVA POL SVK UKR MDA LTU ROM KAZ RUS EU10+1 and Turkey Western Balkans LI CIS MI CIS Countries where more than 40% of firms report that skills has become a severe BLR constraint to growth Workers' skills had become a constraint on firm expansion by 2008. (percent of firms considering factor a 'major' or 'very severe' constraint) Source: Turmoil at Twenty, World Bank, 2009 3
Health and safety rules Armenian history/ culture Environmental awareness Procurement Foreign language skills Problem solving skills Writing skills Customer service skills Communication skills Team Working Skills Showing initiative Innovation and creativity Leadership Telephone skills Entrepreneurial skills Quality management skills IT skills Sales and marketing Web design/maintenance Product development skills Accountancy and budgeting Pricing Administrative skills 1 = not important, 4 = extremely important Surveys of firms highlight that soft skills are as important as other skills 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Armenian firms in hospitality industry, 2007 4 Knowledge Cognitive skills Soft skills Technical skill
What skills are we talking about? Cognitive Noncognitive Technical skills Involving the use of logical, intuitive and creative thinking Soft skills, social skills, lifeskills, personality traits Involving manual dexterity and the use of methods, materials, tools and instruments Raw problem solving ability vs. knowledge to solve problems Openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeability, emotional stability Technical skills developed through vocational schooling or acquired on the job Verbal ability, numeracy, problem solving, memory (working and long-term) and mental speed Self-regulation, perseverance, decision making, interpersonal skills Skills related to a specific occupation (e.g. engineer, economist, IT specialist, etc) 5
Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Albania Montenegro Bulgaria Romania Serbia Russian Federation Turkey Lithuania Czech Republic Croatia Slovak Republic Slovenia Latvia Hungary Poland Estonia Mexico Chile Austria Israel Luxembourg Greece Italy France Spain Germany United Kingdom Belgium Portugal United States Sweden Ireland Iceland Switzerland Denmark Norway New Zealand Netherlands Australia Japan Canada Finland Korea Panama Peru Qatar Indonesia Argentina Tunisia Brazil Jordan Colombia Trinidad and Tobago Thailand Uruguay Dubai (UAE) Liechtenstein Chinese Taipei Macao-China Singapore Hong Kong-China Shanghai-China Basic cognitive skills is a problem for many students 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 % of 15 year olds which are functionally illiterate What about Soft skills? Technical skills? 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 ECA OECD, non-eca Others Source: OECD PISA 2009 (proportion of student scoring below level 2 on reading test) Skills of adult population? Skills of tertiary graduates? 6
Available data focuses on education attained, not the skills acquired 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 25 61 14 Education of recent graduates (Education of 25-34 year olds, 2006) 40 57 3 17 56 27 EU+1 Mid-CIS W. Balkans Low-CIS Turkey Compulsory or less Upper secondary Beyond upper secondary 26 61 12 We have data on cognitive skills of age 15 6but not beyond 31 63 7
Bulgaria Georgia Moldova Ukraine Latvia Bosnia Belarus Romania Croatia Russia Serbia Slovakia Hungary Estonia Macedonia Montenegro Armenia Slovenia Albania Czech Republic Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkey Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan The population is projected to continue to shrink in many countries 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Projected Population % Change, 2010-2030 18 18 19 22 22 25 0 0 1 3 3-1 -14-14 -12-11 -8-8 -7-6 -5-5 -4-4 -3-3 31 Source: UN (Population Division) 8
Age Two things are going to happen: fewer people will be around and more old people 100 90 80 70 Age distribution in year 2005 Male Female Pre-school Primary Secondary Tertiary Not enrolled Unemployed Employed Not in labor force 60 50 40 30 20 10 Example: Bulgaria (2005) 0-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Population in each age group (x 10 5 ) x 10 5
Age The implies activation inactive part of the population and raising skills of everyone 100 90 80 70 Age distribution in year 2035 Male Female Pre-school Primary Secondary Tertiary Not enrolled Unemployed Employed Not in labor force 60 50 40 30 20 10 Example: Bulgaria (2035) 0-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Population in each age group (x 10 5 ) x 10 5
Age Addressing the effect of aging needs action on three fronts 100 Age distribution in year 2005 Pre-school Keeping workers productive 90 80 70 Male Female Primary Secondary Tertiary Not enrolled Unemployed Employed Not in labor force 60 50 40 Activating workers Example: Bulgaria (2005) 30 20 10 0-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Population in each age group (x 10 5 ) x 10 5 Providing quality and relevant education
Focus of World Bank s work: How can the system s performance be improved? Refocusing what you see: System performance (skills developed) Understanding what you don t see: Policies Institutions Values Focus of System Assessment and Benchmarking for Education Results (SABER) 12
Understanding what you don t see: are the policies and institutions cutting-edge? SABERs are being developed in a number of key thematic areas and piloted around the world. Emerging Established Cuttingedge 13 Latent Skills, not Just Diplomas points to three policy areas where ECA s systems appear weak I ll focus on one of them today
Impediment 1: darkness Too many unknowns to pinpoint skills gaps No measurement of quality at tertiary level No measurement of skills obtained in adult education What works and what doesn t work? Is the situation improving or worsening? No tracer studies No measurements of noncognitive skills Five countries have never participated in international assessments National assessments are primarily used to test student, not assess system Student s perspective: what and where should I study? Graduate s perspective: I got the diploma but did I get the skills? 14
Example of important unknown There are around 35 HE institutions teaching economics in Kiev: 20 private and 15 public Student s perspective: which institution does a better job at teaching me the skills I need to succeed? Where should I go if I can t get into the flagship institutions? Employer s perspective: which students outside of the prestigious institutions graduate with the right skills? 15
Example of important unknown (continued) There are around 35 HE institutions teaching economics in Kiev: 20 private and 15 public Institution s perspective: which of my programs are successful and which programs need tweaking/redesigning? Policy maker s perspective: which institution is performing well? Which institution need sanctions/rewards/support? 16
Report notes a couple of problems A lot of focus on the few excellent students Most countries use assessments to make decisions about students, not the education system itself. When assessments are used to obtain system-level measures, they tend to be of poor quality and utility. E.g. highlight which school (or region) had the highest average score; rank schools by average score 17
To ensure a fair selection, you all get sthe same test. You must all climb that tree. Fair is fair? 18
For data to have an impact, it needs to be analyzed, disseminated and used Analyzing and disseminating Using results for decision making Performanceinformed budgeting Collecting data Identify weaknesses and design programs to remedy them Part of accountability framework 19
Learning gap (difference in PISA 2009 score) Example of using tests to shed light on systemic problems Learning gap between Roma and non-roma students, Serbia 2009 60 50 40 30 20 10 Math* Reading Science 0 Learning gap, after controlling for socio-economic differences Source: Aleksandar Baucal (2010) analysis of PISA 2009; * statistically significant 20
How is the World Bank supporting strengthening education and training systems? Benchmarking policies: SABER (http://www.worldbank.org/education/saber) Providing ways to turn the lights on: New survey instruments to measure skills, incl. socioemotional skills, and links to socio-economic success and well-being Tracking graduates using tracer studies Building capacity to use assessments to determine overall system quality 21
Skills surveys of both cognitive and non-cognitive skills Ukraine Moldova Kyrgyzstan El Salvador Colombia Bolivia Burkina Faso Morocco Uzbekistan Egypt Rwanda Armenia Sri Lanka Tajikistan Georgia Lao RD China (Yunnan) Vietnam Surveys in late 2011/early 2012. Results in August 2012 OECD AHELO (measuring skills of tertiary students) PIAAC (measuring skills of adults) 22
Example: Countries to emulate in terms of tracking graduates into employment Romania (first survey in 2010-11) http://www.absolvent-univ.ro/home.aspx Hungary (Graduate Career Tracking System starting in 2010) http://www.felvi.hu/pub_bin/dload/dpr/dpr_graduatecarreertrackinginhungary.pdf Italy (since 1998) http://www.almalaurea.it/en/universita/occupazione/ Germany (since 2009/10); Holland (since 1989); Norway (since 1972) University Graduates Tracer Study Course (UNITRACE) (at University of Kassel) 23
Available at www.worldbank.org/eca/skills 24
How can we help creating skills for growth? For more information on presentation and report: contact Lars Sondergaard lsondergaard@worldbank.org Alberto Rodriguez, Sector Manager, arodriguez@worldbank.org Mamta Murthi, Sector Director, mmurthi@worldbank.org 25