EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25 to 34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree. Target: Increase the percent of Texans ages 25 to 34 with a postsecondary credential. This target ensures progressive improvement of state educational attainment throughout the plan years. By 2020: 48 Percent By 2025: 54 Percent By 2030: 60 Percent Methodology: The 2020 and 2025 targets were determined in three steps. First we estimated the number of master s, bachelor s, associates, and certificates awarded for the 15 years leading to the target year for Texans who will be ages 25 to 34 in the target year. Then we added in the estimated population moving to Texas in that age group with a postsecondary degree or credential and added estimated doctoral and professional degree completions. Finally, we divided this number by the population projection for ages 25 to 34 for the target year. In 2013, the educational attainment of this group was 38.3 percent. The average annual increase from 2004 to 2013 was 0.37 percent. An average annual increase of 1.27 percent is needed to reach 60 percent attainment in 2030. The average of the five best increases in the past 10 years was 1.11 percent. Rationale: This model adds 2 percentage points to the estimated educational attainment for future years to account for individuals who earned degrees outside of Texas. It assumes 12.3 percent for Texas residents who were born elsewhere and have a postsecondary credential earned from an institution outside of Texas. The model assumes doctoral and professional degrees earned in Texas will account for 2.3 percentage points of education attainment in 2030. In 2013, these accounted for 3.5 percent of the Texas population, according to the ACS. We anticipate these degrees will increase but that their percentage will decrease as educational attainment grows. To project attainment levels, we estimated future completers by counting the individuals who completed credentials between the years of 1998 to 2013 and were 25 to 34 in 2013, and by looking at patterns of completion by year (see How does Texas reach 60 percent attainment handout). We assume an adjustment factor of 1.09 to account for improvements during the plan years. Then, we apply the percentages to the projected completions from the Completion goal to estimate the educational attainment of those ages 25 to 34 in 2030. The model uses the Texas State Data Center s 2014 population projections with a 0.5 migration scenario for ages 25 to 34. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 1

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25 to 34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree. 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 Educational Attainment (25 to 34) 33.5% 35.6% 38.3% 41.1% 47.7% 53.5% 60.0% Population Projection (25 to 34) 3,245,319 3,596,133 3,799,624 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population (25 to 34) with an Associate Degree or Higher 988,510 1,173,220 1,342,578 1,562,479 1,896,934 2,262,286 2,690,611 Educational Attainment from Migration 1.93% 1.90% 2.04% 1.94% 1.94% 1.95% 1.95% Annual Doctoral and Professional Practice Completers 4.3% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% Annual Percentage Change -1.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% Average Annual Percentage Change 2004 to 2013 0.37% Average Annual Percentage Change 2014 to 2030 1.27% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 2004-2013 -0.29% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 2004-2013 1.11% Estimated Percent of Migrants with Non-Texas Higher Education 12.28% Completers (25 to 34) 1,229,930 1,358,679 1,697,938 2,066,026 2,498,482 Completions from Completion Goal 199,845 246,375 291,495 310,599 375,769 454,613 550,000 Completers (25 to 34 in 2013) as a Percentage of Total Completers 45.24% 50.40% 21.90% Completers (25 to 34 in 2013) as a Percentage of Total Completers 49.53% 55.17% 23.97% Completer Adjustment Factor 1.09 0.5 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,740,753 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Annual Completions as a Percentage of Population (0.5 Migration) 6.1% 6.8% 7.8% 8.2% 9.4% 10.8% 12.3% 1.0 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,828,493 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Annual Completions as a Percentage of Population (1.0 Migration) 6.1% 6.8% 7.6% 7.9% 8.7% 9.4% 10.2% Trend - Average Annual Percentage Change 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 40.9% 47.3% 53.6% 60.0% Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 39.1% 40.9% 42.8% 44.6% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 37.8% 36.3% 34.9% 33.5% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 40.6% 46.1% 51.7% 57.3% Sources: Annual Completers - Graduation reports all sectors. Population (25 to 34) - 2014 to 2030 - Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - ages 25 to 34. 1998 to 2013 https://www.tsl.texas.gov/ref/abouttx/census.html Educational Attainment - Data Ferret Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) American Communities Survey Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 2

Target: Increase the number of students completing a certificate, associate, bachelor s, or master s from a Texas public, independent, or for-profit college or university to at least By 2020: 376,000 By 2025: 455,000 By 2030: 550,000 The first three targets are directly related to the Completion goal. To reach this goal, Texas will need to maintain the strong degree production increases that it has experienced in recent years. Methodology: The 2020 and 2025 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 3.88 percent per year, beginning with 2015 completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). We chose this rate by starting with the 550,000 Completion goal and calculating the yearly growth rate needed to reach that goal. The 550,000 goal is critical to producing enough degrees to reach the 60 percent Attainment goal (see How does Texas reach 60 percent attainment handout). As a feasibility test, past growth trends were examined, along with population migration scenarios. This projected growth is more ambitious than the 2.57 percent annual increases seen in 2013 and 2014, but slightly less ambitious than the 4.7 percent cumulative annual growth rate from 1998 to 2014, when the population expanded at a high rate. Rationale: To reach the higher education Attainment goal of 60 percent for Texas, the most substantial contribution of credentialed graduates must come from Texas public, independent, and career colleges and universities. To achieve the Attainment goal for 25 to 34 year olds, steady growth in completions is needed over time; setting and reaching interim targets for the Completion goal is, therefore, critical. It is also critically important for Texas that degree completions improve for adults of all ages, including those seeking to retool outdated skills or those striving to complete master s degrees in specialized fields. Degree production needs to improve above increases from population growth. If at leas this much progress (reaching 550,000 completions in 2030) can be made, the Educational Attainment goal will be within reach. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 3

2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Completions 151,833 199,845 246,375 298,989 310,599 375,769 454,613 550,000 Public 4-Years 75,397 92,673 110,479 127,165 Public 2-Years 40,553 56,858 73,963 99,009 Public Health- Related 1,908 2,545 3,429 4,758 Baylor 55 47 63 42 Private Institutions 22,968 23,739 26,323 27,980 Career Schools 10,952 23,983 32,118 40,035 Annual Growth Rate 3.23% 4.00% 7.03% 2.57% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 1998-2014 4.71% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 3.88% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998-2014 2.34% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998-2014 7.72% 0.5 Migration Population 20,949,31 6 22,928,50 8 25,253,46 6 26,581,25 6 26,947,11 6 28,813,28 2 30,734,32 1 32,680,21 7 Completions as a Percentage of Population (0.5 Migration) 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0 Migration Population 20,949,31 6 22,928,50 8 25,253,46 6 27,161,94 2 27,695,28 4 30,541,97 8 33,699,30 7 37,155,08 4 Completions as a Percentage of Population (1.0 Migration) 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 157,008 197,618 248,732 298,989 310,599 375,769 454,613 550,000 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 157,008 197,618 248,732 298,989 313,066 394,040 495,958 624,237 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 157,008 197,618 248,732 298,989 305,979 343,459 385,530 432,754 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 157,008 197,618 248,732 298,989 322,057 467,000 677,176 981,943 Sources: Annual Completers - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Private Institutions 1998 to 2002 and career schools 1998 to 2008 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems (IPEDS). Total Population - 2014 to 2030 - Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - All Ages. 1998 to 2013 https://www.tsl.texas.gov/ref/abouttx/census.html Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 4

Target: Increase the number of Hispanic students completing a certificate or degree to at least By 2020: 138,000 By 2025: 198,000 By 2030: 285,000 More than 50 percent of the young adult population in 2030 is projected to be Hispanic. This target helps to ensure Hispanic completions will reach parity with the population. Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 7.52 percent per year beginning with 2015 Hispanic completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). This rate grows Hispanic completions to 285,000, which is 52 percent of all projected completions in 2030. Hispanics are projected to be 52 percent of the young adult Texas population in 2030. This projected growth is more ambitious than the 5.9 percent annual increase seen in 2014 but slightly less ambitious than the 9.31 percent cumulative annual growth rate from 1998 to 2014 when the population expanded at a high rate. Rationale: Population and education data tell a compelling story about Hispanic Texans. An increasingly larger proportion of the state population is Hispanic and many of those are children and young adults. Because Hispanics traditionally have participated in higher education at lower rates than other groups, increasing Hispanic completions in Texas will be critical if this strategic plan is to succeed. This target is ambitious because degree production from improvements will need to be double the degree increases expected from population growth. However, we assume a 7.52 percent growth rate is viable because of the substantial progress made since 2000. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 5

2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Completions 199,845 246,375 298,989 310,599 375,769 454,613 550,000 Hispanic Completions 39,797 61,425 89,355 96,073 138,041 198,344 284,988 Public 4-Years 17,442 24,516 32,070 Public 2-Years 16,724 24,024 36,685 Public Health-Related 465 660 970 Baylor 4 1 7 Private Institutions 3,260 3,998 5,452 Career Schools 1,902 8,226 14,171 Annual Growth Rate 8.5% 5.9% 5.8% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Population - Total (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,777,827 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population - Hispanic (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 1,377,386 1,514,484 1,619,766 1,644,627 1,834,361 2,077,738 2,323,615 Hispanic Population as a Percentage of Population 42.4% 41.9% 42.9% 43.3% 46.1% 49.2% 51.8% Hispanic Completions as a Percentage of Hispanic Population 2.9% 4.1% 5.5% 5.8% 7.5% 9.5% 12.3% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2004 to 2014 9.31% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 7.52% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998 to 2014 5.00% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998 to 2014 16.55% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89,355 96,073 138,041 198,344 284,988 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89,355 97,677 152,462 237,974 371,448 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89,355 93,823 119,743 152,824 195,045 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89,355 104,148 224,027 481,892 1,036,574 1.0 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,897,482 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Population - Hispanic (25 to 34) 1,377,386 1,514,484 1,699,552 1,748,479 2,083,736 2,512,397 2,971,661 Hispanic Population Percentage of Population 42.4% 41.9% 43.6% 44.2% 48.2% 52.0% 55.0% Hispanic Completions Percentage of Hispanic Population 2.9% 4.1% 5.3% 5.5% 6.8% 8.2% 10.2% Hispanic Completions (1.0 Migration) 39,797 61,425 89,355 96,432 141,166 206,652 302,516 Hispanic Completer Annual Growth Rate 8.5% 5.9% 5.8% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 7.92% Trend - Cumulative Growth Rate (1.0 Migration) 40,092 62,578 89,355 96,432 141,166 206,652 302,516 Sources: Annual Completions - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Total Population - 2014 to 2030 - Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - Ages 25 to 34. Hispanic Population 2004 to 2013 - Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) American Communities Survey - Ages 25 to 34. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 6

Target: Increase the number of African American students completing a certificate or degree to at least By 2020: 48,000 By 2025: 59,000 By 2030: 76,000 This target helps ensure continued growth in completions for a population that has traditionally been underrepresented in higher education. Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 4.5 percent per year beginning with 2015 African American completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). This rate grows the African American completions to 76,000, which is 14 percent of all projected completions in 2030. African Americans are projected to be 11 percent of the young adult Texas population in 2030. This projected growth is less ambitious than the 5.8 percent annual increase seen in 2014 and the 7.64 percent cumulative annual growth rate from 1998 to 2014 when the population expanded at a high rate. The African American completion target of 76,000 represents the projected percentage of the population for males and increases females by 3.88 percent each year, which is the growth rate needed for all completions to reach the 550,000 completions in 2030. Rationale: African American students have made striking gains in Texas in both their participation levels in higher education and in terms of growth in degree and certificate attainment since 2000. Although these successes have not been balanced equally between genders (African American females participate and complete at much higher rates than do males), both genders have shown improved results, and tracking African American success data has provided some helpful insights for understanding this population during the Closing the Gaps era in Texas. Continuing to monitor progress for this traditionally underrepresented group will help ensure that recent successes continue. To reach the African American completion target, degree production needs to improve substantially beyond the completions expected from population growth alone. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 7

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 All Completions 199,845 246,375 310,599 375,769 454,613 550,000 African American Completions (0.5 Migration) 18,437 26,841 39,245 48,257 59,367 76,130 Completions - Population Growth 18,437 26,841 37,851 40,492 42,065 41,701 Completions - Productivity Increases - - 1,394 7,765 17,301 34,430 Public 4-Years 7,608 10,451 Public 2-Years 7,093 8,706 Public Health-Related 146 309 Baylor - 2 Private Institutions 2,318 2,551 Career Schools 1,272 4,822 Annual Growth Rate 2.3% 7.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 8.6% Population - African American (25 to 34) (0.0 Migration) 348,961 426,528 438,721 464,385 466,180 441,640 African American Completions as a Percentage of African American Population 5.3% 6.3% 8.9% 10.4% 12.7% 17.2% Population - Total (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population - African American (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 348,961 426,528 445,875 480,247 500,898 496,710 African American Population as a Percentage of Population 10.8% 11.8% 11.7% 12.1% 11.9% 11.1% African American Completions as a Percentage of African American Population 5.3% 6.3% 8.8% 10.0% 11.9% 15.3% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2004 to 2014 7.64% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 4.50% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 2004 to 2014 3.47% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 2004 to 2014 14.00% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 18,437 26,841 39,352 49,034 61,098 76,130 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 18,437 26,841 40,536 58,581 84,660 122,348 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 18,437 26,841 38,963 46,198 54,776 64,948 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 18,437 26,841 42,929 82,643 159,097 306,281 1.0 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Population - African American (25 to 34) 348,961 426,528 453,237 496,616 537,877 558,323 African American Percentage of Population 10.8% 11.8% 11.5% 11.5% 11.1% 10.3% Completions as a Percentage of African American Population 5.3% 6.3% 8.5% 8.8% 9.3% 10.2% African American Completions (1.0 Migration) 18,437 26,841 38,639 43,944 49,977 56,838 African American Annual Growth Rate 2.3% 7.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 2.61% Trend - Cumulative Growth Rate (1.0 Migration) 19,409 28,049 38,639 43,944 49,977 56,838 African American Completions (0.5 Migration) - - 606 4,313 9,390 19,293 Sources: Completions - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Total Population - 2014 to 2030 - Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - Ages 25 to 34. African American Population 2004 to 2013 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) American Communities Survey - Ages 25 to 34. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 8

Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 9

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Target: Increase the number of male students completing a certificate or degree to at least... By 2020: 168,000 By 2025: 215,000 By 2030: 275,000 The percentage of women enrolled in and graduating from higher education institutions has grown and men are not keeping pace. Texas needs to enroll and graduate more males. Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 5.17 percent per year beginning with 2015 male completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). This rate grows the male completions to 275,000, which is 50 percent of all projected completions in 2030. The male completion targets were based on the number of males that will be needed by 2030 to achieve parity with females based on the 550,000 Completion goal. Rationale: The goal is for at least 550,000 more students to complete credentials in 2030. The male completion target of achieving parity in completions does not suggest female completion rates should be slowed but rather, that male rates need improvement. Because male participation has been consistently lower than that of females in recent years but has grown at a study pace, the change needed to reach parity was spread evenly over the next 15 years at a pace not much greater than what was observed in the past: 5.11 percent per year. Young males and females graduate from Texas public high schools at the same rate (50.1 percent male to 49.9 percent female), but males enroll in and complete higher education at substantially lower rates. Without progress in male completions, reaching 60 percent attainment will be challenging. The gender target is based on the understanding that Texas will be best served if individuals in the state access and complete higher education at comparable levels. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 11

2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Completions 199,845 246,375 298,989 310,599 375,769 454,613 550,000 Male Completions 77,050 100,420 122,744 131,000 168,000 215,000 275,000 Public University 39,195 46,185 53,591 Public CTC 23,900 32,310 43,499 Public HRI 643 947 1,164 Baylor 15 14 11 Private University 10,374 11,171 11,741 Career 2,923 9,793 12,738 Male Completions as a percentage of total Completions 38.6% 40.8% 41.1% 42.2% 44.8% 47.4% 50.0% Male Completer Annual Growth Rate 3.3% 10.3% 2.4% 6.7% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2004-2014 5.11% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 5.17% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998-2014 1.07% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998-2014 13.38% 0.5 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,777,827 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population - Male (25 to 34) 1,663,916 1,821,853 1,921,227 1,936,559 2,051,052 2,185,818 2,318,935 Male Percentage of Population 50.5% 50.4% 50.9% 51.0% 51.6% 51.7% 51.7% Completions as a Percentage of Male Population 4.6% 5.5% 6.4% 6.8% 8.2% 9.8% 11.9% 1.0 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,897,482 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Population - Male (25 to 34) 1,663,916 1,821,853 1,982,803 2,016,583 2,244,876 2,528,871 2,841,292 Male Percentage of Population 50.5% 50.4% 50.9% 51.0% 51.9% 52.4% 52.6% Completions as a Percentage of Male Population 4.6% 5.5% 6.2% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% 9.7% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 78,394 100,568 122,744 129,091 166,102 213,724 275,000 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 78,394 100,568 122,744 129,014 165,506 212,320 272,375 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 78,394 100,568 122,744 124,054 130,814 137,942 145,459 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 78,394 100,568 122,744 139,170 260,776 488,641 915,614 Sources: Completions - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Population - 2014 to 2030 - Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - Ages 24 to 35. Population - 2004 to 2013 - Census Bureau Intercential Population Estimates - Ages 25 to 34 http://www.census.gov/popest/data/intercensal/state/st-est00int-02.html Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 12

Target: Increase the number of economically disadvantaged undergraduate students (PELL Recipients) completing a certificate or degree to at least By 2020: 146,000 By 2025: 190,000 By 2030: 246,000 Economically disadvantaged students are less likely to succeed in higher education than their noneconomically disadvantaged peers. This target emphasizes the importantance of improving completion rates for this subgroup. Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were calculated by estimating the percentage of enrolled PELL recipients and applying that percentage to the overall completion goal to project economically disadvantaged completions. Of the approximately 299,000 2014 completers, about 107,000 of the undergraduates received PELL during their college careers. This number increased an average of 8.3 percent per year since 1999 when only 32,000 the undergraduate completers were PELL recipients. Rationale: Economically disadvantaged students enroll in higher education at lower rates than non-economically disadvantaged students do. Those who do enroll earn degrees and credentials at lower rates than do their non-economically disadvantaged counterparts. This goal is aimed at ensuring that institutions focus efforts on helping disadvantaged students to be successful. Data show that economically disadvantaged students tend to be less prepared when they enter college. As the percent of Texas public school students who are economically disadvantaged increases, emphasis on better high school preparation and academic and financial support in college will be critical for improving completion rates. Without increased success of this population, the state s attainment goal will be difficult to achieve. Helping economically disadvantaged students complete awards and degrees benefits not only current students, but future generations as well. Parents with degrees encourage their children to prepare for and enroll in higher education, building on the economic and social benefits to the state. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 13

2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Completions 152,000 200,000 246,000 299,000 311,000 376,000 455,000 550,000 Economically Disadvantaged Completions 35,735 60,179 77,700 107,419 113,000 146,000 190,000 246,000 Completions - Population Growth 35,735 60,179 77,700 107,419 105,248 128,685 138,105 148,285 Completions - Productivity Increases - - - - 7,752 17,315 51,895 97,715 Economically disadvantaged Completions as a percentage of total Completions 28.0% 35.8% 37.6% 42.8% 43.3% 46.2% 49.7% 53.2% Economically Disadvantaged Completer Annual Growth Rate 10.1% 7.7% 10.2% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0% 5.6% 5.1% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 1999 to 2014 8.30% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 5.32% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998-2014 4.04% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998-2014 13.04% Estimated Undergraduate Percentage of Total Completions 84.00% Fall Undergraduates 755,367 1,021,637 1,198,588 1,276,253 Fiscal year Undergraduates with PELL 238,010 401,267 503,469 621,007 Percentage of Undergraduates with PELL 31.5% 39.3% 42.0% 48.7% 48.9% 50.4% 51.8% 53.2% Annual Percentage Change 1.2% 1.6% 3.5% -0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 35,159 52,392 78,072 107,419 113,128 146,564 189,881 246,000 Trend - Historic Annual Growth Rate 35,159 52,392 78,072 107,419 116,340 173,364 258,338 384,964 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 35,159 52,392 78,072 107,419 111,754 136,200 165,993 202,304 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 35,159 52,392 78,072 107,419 121,424 224,087 413,550 763,204 Population - Economically Disadvantaged (18 to 24) - 0.5 Migration - 788,780 978,269 1,155,367 1,132,021 1,384,098 1,485,413 1,594,913 Completions as a Percentage of Population (0.5 Migration) 7.6% 7.9% 9.3% 10.0% 10.5% 12.8% 15.4% Population - Economically Disadvantaged (18 to 24) - 1.0 Migration - 788,780 978,269 1,193,261 1,179,482 1,512,042 1,689,868 1,856,228 Completions as a Percentage of Population (1.0 Migration) 7.6% 7.9% 9.0% 9.6% 9.7% 11.2% 13.3% Sources: Completions - CBM009 Graduate and FADS reports all sectors. Population - Texas State Data Center Projections age 18 to 24 Estimated Economically Disadvantaged Population - 18 to 24 Year old population projections times the projected percent economically disadvantaged. Project the economically disadvantaged post-secondary percentage by adjusting the disadvantaged percentage of the cohort as reported in the 2014 TEA enrollment report by the historic change in percentage of the 2014 undergraduate to that cohort's percentage in the corresponding grade. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 14

Target: Increase the percentage of all Texas public high school graduates enrolling in a Texas public, independent, or for-profit college or university by the first fall after their high school graduation to at least By 2020: 58 Percent By 2025: 61 Percent By 2030: 65 Percent Students who enroll directly from high school into college are much more likely to be college ready. This target helps to ensure high school graduates enroll in higher education at rates that support the completion goal. Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were estimated by dividing the public high school graduates found in public and private higher education the fall following graduation by the total public high school graduates. Public high school graduates are matched using available identifiers. Students without standard identifiers are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Currently, 53.7 percent of high school graduates enroll. This is down from a high of 56.3 percent in 2009 and up from a low of 52.2 percent in 2002. Rationale: The majority of incoming firsttime students in Texas are graduates of the state s public high schools. A strong P-12 to college pipeline must be in place to increase the percent of high school graduates going directly to college and, as importantly, ensure those enrollees are prepared to succeed. Currently, of those high school graduates who enroll direct from high school, 73 percent are college ready, compared to about 40 percent of those who are not direct from high school. Opportunities for students to pursue technical dual credit are expanding and may encourage more high school graduates to enroll in higher education. Approximately 10 percent of public high school graduates go to college out-of-state or to career schools. These are not included in this target. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 15

2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 Percentage Enrolled 53.6% 55.5% 53.7% 55.0% 58.3% 61.7% 65.0% Public 4-Year 48,370 58,883 63,408 Public 2-Year 60,408 78,145 78,560 Private 10,614 11,891 11,225 Not Trackable 16,969 12,317 16,072 16,309 16,577 17,069 16,854 Not Found 103,355 119,284 132,153 Total 239,716 280,520 301,418 305,863 342,143 381,888 430,060 Enrolled 119,392 148,919 153,193 159,306 189,952 224,993 268,583 Annual Change 1.2% -0.8% -0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Average Annual Change 2002 to 2013 0.15% Average Annual Increase 2014 to 2030 0.67% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 2002-2013 -0.47% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 2002-2013 0.79% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 52.5% 53.2% 53.7% 55.0% 58.3% 61.7% 65.0% Trend - Historic Annual Growth Rate 52.5% 53.2% 53.7% 54.0% 54.7% 55.4% 56.2% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 52.5% 53.2% 53.7% 52.8% 50.4% 48.1% 45.8% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 52.5% 53.2% 53.7% 55.3% 59.2% 63.1% 67.1% Sources: As reported by the THECB: http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/docfetch.cfm?docid=1547&format=xls Percentage enrolled is total enrolled divided by the total number of high school graduates less the non trackable students. Not trackable graduates have high school specific identification numbers that will not be used by Texas higher education institutions and therefore cannot be matched. Not found are graduates who have standard identification numbers that were not found at Texas higher education institutions the following fall term. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 16

MARKETABLE SKILLS Goal: By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills. By 2020, institutions will have created and implemented a process to identify and regularly update marketable skills for each of their programs, in collaboration with business and other stakeholders. Graduates need to be aware of the marketable skills affiliated with their programs. The targets above ensure that institutions document, update, and communicate the skills students acquire in their programs. By 2020: 100 Percent Implemented 2021 to 2030: Continuously Update Methodology: By 2020, institutions of higher education will have (1) created a process to identify and regularly update marketable skills for each of their programs in collaboration with business and other community organizations, and (2) implemented that process and identified marketable skills for all programs. For the remainder of the strategic plan timeline, institutions shall continuously update identified marketable skills for all programs, in response to workforce demand. Rationale: Higher education, by its nature, increases knowledge and skills and results in greater individual marketability, wealth, and self-reliance. Most students attend college to increase their marketability and their income potential. Workforce skills include soft skills and knowledge not easily aligned to a specific job or industry. Liberal arts studies, for example, often hone these skills, and over time create flexibility and resourcefulness for individuals, allowing them to adapt nimbly to the jobs of the future while meeting current needs. Students do not always make the connection between classroom experiences, extracurricular activities, and their personal marketability. These targets are a call to action for institutions to continue helping students and graduates to make those connections. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 17

MARKETABLE SKILLS Goal: By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills. This page intentionally left blank. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 18

MARKETABLE SKILLS Goal: By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills. Maintain the percentage of students who are found working or enrolled within one year of earning a degree or certificate. It is important to the state that a substantial portion of Texas completers remain in the state and are employed or pursuing additional education. By 2020: 80 Percent By 2025: 80 Percent By 2030: 80 Percent Methodology: To determine the baseline, we divided completers matched to Texas Unemployment Insurance (UI) Wage Records and higher education enrollment records by all completers. The target is set to maintain the baseline rate. This rate has fluctuated over time, ranging since 2000 from a high of 81 percent in 2006 to a low of 74 percent in 2011. This rate was at 77 percent in fiscal year 2013. Rationale: We determined 80 percent as an appropriate and reasonable target based on reported data. The purpose of this target is to monitor graduate employment or continued education. Any large variation in this placement rate, say a drop to 70 percent or an increase to 90 percent, may indicate a major shift (good or bad) in the Texas economy. Large change may indicate the need for change in the way we supply graduates to meet workforce demands. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 19

MARKETABLE SKILLS Goal: By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills. Fiscal Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Percent Employed and/or Enrolled Next Fall 79.1% 80.3% 77.5% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% Working 71,745 87,321 119,306 161,205 195,001 235,883 285,336 Enrolled 6,888 17,820 25,839 32,321 39,097 47,294 57,209 Working While Enrolled 15,463 34,668 42,356 39,701 48,024 58,092 70,271 Working and/or Enrolled 94,096 139,809 187,501 245,008 296,374 358,508 433,670 Completers 119,033 174,208 241,924 306,260 370,467 448,136 542,087 Employed or Enrolled Next Fall Annual Percentage Change 1.1% -1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Average Annual Percent Increase 2000-2013 -0.15% Average Annual Percentage Increase to Reach 2030 Target 0.17% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 2000-2013 -1.64% 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 2000-2013 1.65% Average Annual Increase for Completers 2014 to 2030 3.88% Population - 0.5 Migration 20,949,316 22,928,508 25,253,466 26,947,116 28,813,282 30,734,321 32,680,217 Working and/or Enrolled as a Percentage of Population 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% Population - 1.0 Migration 20,949,316 22,928,508 25,253,466 27,695,284 30,541,978 33,699,307 37,155,084 Working and/or Enrolled as a Percentage of Population 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% Trend - Projected Annual Percent Increase 79.1% 78.3% 77.6% 77.5% 78.3% 79.2% 80.0% Trend - Historic Annual Percent Increase 79.1% 78.3% 77.6% 76.8% 76.1% 75.3% 74.6% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Percent Increase 79.1% 78.3% 77.6% 73.8% 65.7% 57.5% 49.3% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Percent Increase 79.1% 78.3% 77.6% 80.4% 88.7% 96.9% 105.2% Sources: Annual Completers - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Employed - Unemployment Insurance Records, Department of Defense and Office of Management and Budget Employment Records. Enrolled - Student and Continuing Education Report Total Population - 2014 to 2030 - Texas State Datacenter 2014 Population Projections - All Ages. 1998 to 2013 https://www.tsl.texas.gov/ref/abouttx/census.html Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 20

STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. The student debt goal ensures the affordability of Texas higher education by limiting the debt needed to complete a degree or certificate to no more than 60 percent of wages. By 2020: 60 Percent By 2025: 60 Percent By 2030: 60 Percent Methodology: For the 2020 and 2025 targets, we divided each graduate s student loan debt by the graduate s annual wages earned the year after completion. Then, we ordered these ratios from lowest to highest for that year s completers and picked the middle value. The interim targets are set at the same level as the goal. Significant variability is seen in the annual data from 2000 to 2012. The five best years average was a 0.24 percent decrease and the five worst years average was a 4.19 percent increase. In 2012, the ratio was 60 percent. In 2012, the middle value was 73.3 percent for bachelor s degrees, 40.2 percent for associate degrees, and 32.6 percent for certificate completers. Assumptions: This target includes bachelor s, associate, and certificate completers reported by public and private colleges and universities to the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB) on the graduation report. It excludes master s, doctoral, professional practice, and graduate-level certificate completions. Completers at career colleges are also excluded, as these institutions do not report financial aid data to the THECB. Additionally, completers with no reported student loan debt are excluded, as are those with no reported wages and those with annual wages in excess of $200,000. Student loan debt is limited to loans reported on the THECB financial aid database (FADS) report, which does not include revolving credit accounts, credit card debt, mortgages, and other installment debt. Student loan debt for leavers and noncompleters is excluded. The Completion goal addresses this group of students. Wages are those reported quarterly to the Texas Workforce Commission for unemployment insurance and wages paid to federal government employees (Department of Defense and Office of Management and Budget). Wages do not include completers self-employed in Texas and nonfederal employees in other states and abroad. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 21

STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Median Debt to Wage 38.2% 44.2% 61.1% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Median Debt 11,292 13,677 19,018 19,796 Median Wage 29,578 30,950 31,101 32,991 Annual Percentage Change -1.1% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Average Annual Percentage Change 2000 to 2012 1.82% Average Annual Percentage Change 2013 to 2030 0.00% 5 Lowest Average Annual Percentage Change 2000-2012 -0.24% 5 Highest Average Annual Percentage Change 2000-2012 4.19% Trend - Average Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Trend - Historic Average Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 65.5% 74.6% 83.6% 92.7% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 59.3% 58.1% 56.9% 55.7% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 72.6% 93.5% 114.5% 135.4% Sources: Median Debt: Financial Aid Database System Reports Median Wage: Unemployment Insurance Wage Records Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 22

STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. Target: Decrease the excess semester credit hours (SCH) that students attempt when completing an associate or a bachelor s degree. This target focuses on decreasing the total semester credit hours to degree to reduce costs and debt. By 2020: 12 Hours By 2025: 6 Hours By 2030: 3 Hours Methodology: For the 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets for each graduate, we subtracted the hours required for the completed program from the hours attempted by the student. We summed these differences and divided by the number of graduates. In 2014, the average graduate attempted 25.1 hours more than the required hours for the program. This is down from a high of 36.4 hours in 1999. From 1999 to 2014, the average of the five best annual improvements was -8.07 percent and the five worst was 2.57 percent. Rationale: These calculations use data on terminal associate and bachelor s degree completers reported by public institutions to the THECB on the graduate report. Calculations include hours attempted by these graduates in the 10 years before completion, using data reported by public institutions to the THECB on the student report. Calculations DO NOT include hours attempted for dual credit and developmental education courses and credit hours earned through credit by examination (e.g. CLEP, AP). Calculations DO NOT include degrees for: (1) associate degree completers previously reported earning a bachelor s or higher degree, (2) bachelor s degree completers previously reported earning a bachelor s degree or higher, (3) hours earned before the student was reported as first-time-incollege, (4) completers who were never reported as first-time-in-college (FTIC) (5) completers earning awards from private institutions, or (6) students reported as FTIC more than 10 years prior to graduation. Due to the semester credit hours excluded above, this calculation will reflect some students completing a degree with fewer hours than the minimum hours required by their programs. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 23

STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 All Average Hours Over Program 36.1 30.6 25.5 25.1 22.3 12.0 6.2 3.0 Associate Average Hours Over Program 37.6 32.4 32.3 29.6 Baccalaureate Average Hours Over Program 35.6 29.8 21.9 22.0 Annual Percentage Change -0.9% -9.3% 3.9% 2.4% -11.3% -12.0% -12.8% -13.8% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 1999-2014 -2.44% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2015 to 2030-12.44% 5 Lowest Average Annual Percentage Change 1999-2014 -8.07% 5 Highest Average Annual Percentage Change 1999-2014 2.57% Trend - Average Annual Percentage Change 35.5 31.4 27.7 25.1 22.0 11.3 5.8 3.0 Trend - Historic Average Annual Percentage Change 35.5 31.4 27.7 25.1 24.5 21.7 19.1 16.9 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 35.5 31.4 27.7 25.1 23.1 15.2 10.0 6.5 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 35.5 31.4 27.7 25.1 25.8 29.3 33.2 37.7 Sources: Semester Credit Hours as reported on the Student Report to the THECB. Graduates as reported on the Graduation report to the THECB. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 24

STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. Target: Work to limit debt so that no more than half of all students who earn an undergraduate degree or certificate will have debt. This target focuses on decreasing the overall number of students who have student loan debt. By 2020: 50 Percent By 2025: 50 Percent By 2030: 50 Percent Methodology: For the 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets, we divided undergraduate completers with student loan debt by all undergraduate completers. The targets are set to maintain 50 percent during the plan years. Of the undergraduate completers in FY 2014, 50 percent completed with student loan debt, down from 56 percent in 2010. From 2000 to 2014, the average of the five best years was -1.4 percent and the five worst years was 1.7 percent. Rationale: This target s scope is all undergraduate completers and the percentage who have debt, unlike the goal, which focuses on the debt level of only undergraduate completers with debt. These targets include bachelor s, associate, and certificate completers reported by public and private institutions to the THECB on the graduate report. Student debt is limited to student loans reported to the THECB in the financial aid database (FADS) report. These data DO NOT include: (1) Postsecondary credentials higher than a bachelor s (i.e., master s, doctoral, professional practice, and graduate-level certificate completions), (2) Undergraduate completions at career colleges (they do not report financial aid data to the THECB), (3) Other payment options such as revolving credit accounts, credit card debt, mortgages, and other installment debt, (4) Debt for leavers and non-completers (see the Completion goal). As with the student debt goal, this target tries to achieve balance with the efforts of the state, students, and institutions. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 25

STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. Fiscal Year 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Percentage of Completions with Debt 46.4% 53.3% 56.4% 49.9% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% Completions 99,371 144,298 176,498 215,229 Completions with Debt 46,136 76,911 99,554 107,420 Annual Percentage Change 2.0% -0.3% -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Average Annual Percentage Change 2000 to 2014 0.25% Average Annual Percentage Change 2015 to 2030 0.01% 5 Lowest Average Annual Percentage Change 2000-2014 -1.36% 5 Highest Average Annual Percentage Change 2000-2014 1.67% Trend - Average Annual Percentage Change 46.4% 47.7% 48.9% 49.9% 49.9% 49.9% 50.0% 50.0% Trend - Historic Average Annual Percentage Change 46.4% 47.7% 48.9% 49.9% 50.2% 51.4% 52.6% 53.9% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 46.4% 47.7% 48.9% 49.9% 48.5% 41.7% 34.9% 28.1% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 46.4% 47.7% 48.9% 49.9% 51.6% 59.9% 68.3% 76.7% Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 26

How does Texas reach 60 percent educational attainment by 2030? If Texas increases completions 3.8 percent per year from 2016 to 2030 Texas will reach its goal of 550,000 in 2030. Completion By 2030, at least 550,000 students in that year will complete a certificate, associate, bachelor s, or At this rate, Texas will educate 6.4 million students between 2016 and 2030. In 2030, 2.4 million of those students will be 25 to 34 year olds. In addition to those, another projected 244,000 will graduate from out-of-state institutions and move to Texas by 2030. The estimates for the 2030 Texas population put 4.5 million 25 to 34 year olds in Texas. Texas reaches its educational attainment goal of 60 percent with 2.7 million educated (2.4 million instate plus 244,000 from out-of-state). In 2016, projected completers ages 11 to 20 contribute to the educational attainment goal - 9,000 of 326,000. Those over 20 in 2016 will be over 34 in 2030 and outside the target age group. In 2022, projected completers ages 17 to 26 contribute to the educational attainment goal - 203,000 of 408,000. In 2029, projected completers ages 24 to 33 contribute to the educational attainment goal - 148,000 of 530,000. More completers help to reach the educational attainment goal in the middle-plan years than the earlier and later years because most students complete under the age 25. Educational Attainment By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 2534 will have a postsecondary credential or degree. *Estimated 2016 completions of 326,000 based on 2013 completions of 292,000 (including master s) grown by 3.8 percent for three years (2014, 2015, and 2016). 2013 completions include certificates (50,727), and associate (70,516), bachelor s (121,226), and master s (48,697) degrees from Texas public, private, and for-profit colleges or universities. Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee 27