Department of Statistics STAT399 Statistical Consulting Semester 2, 2012 Unit Outline Unit Convener: Dr Ayse Bilgin John Tukey: An approximate answer to the right question is worth a great deal more than a precise answer to the wrong question George Box: All models are wrong; but some are useful. Please read this unit outline carefully at the beginning of semester as it contains important information for you. If anything in it is unclear, ask one of the teaching staff in the unit. 1
ABOUT THIS UNIT STAT399 is a three credit point Capstone unit for Statistics Major offered by the Department of Statistics in the Faculty of Science. It is offered in the second semester. The prerequisites for this unit are either STAT270 or STAT271 and either STAT273 or STAT272. This unit integrates the core concepts in statistics in the practical context of solving real research problems by the application of statistical ideas and methods. In particular, the unit aims to give students exposure to the statistical and non-statistical issues that arise in statistical problem solving, and to provide an experiential background in statistical consulting. Students will develop the ability to appreciate the nature of statistical problems and discuss the statistical problem-solving cycle; listen to a client s statement of a problem and ask appropriate questions for clarification; recognise appropriate statistical techniques for use in a variety of problems, and apply these techniques competently; recognise situations in which familiar techniques do not apply and search the literature for appropriate alternative techniques; write reports at an appropriate statistical level for a client or a colleague; give an oral summary of a statistical investigation at a level appropriate for the audience and discuss the ethical aspects and implications of professional statistical work. Various statistical software (e.g. SPSS) will be used to develop solutions to clients problems. TEACHING STAFF Dr Ayse Bilgin Room: E4A 515 Phone: 9850 8509 e-mail: ayse.bilgin@mq.edu.au Ass Prof Peter Petocz Room: E4A 529 Phone: 9850 9174 e-mail: peter.petocz@mq.edu.au Dr Ken Beath Room: E4A 507 Phone: 9850 8516 e-mail: ken.beath@mq.edu.au CLASSES You should attend the following classes each week: 2 hour lecture beginning in Week 1: Thursday 12 2pm, E5A 230 2 hour tutorial beginning in Week 1: Thursday 4-6 pm, E5A 150 UNIT WEB PAGE This unit outline is publicly available at the Macquarie University Department of Statistics web site http://www.stat.mq.edu.au/undergraduate_programs/stat_units/ 2
ILEARN ACCESS We will use ilearn for distribution of course notes, readings, data sets, solutions, announcements and discussions. We would like you to use the Discussions to communicate with other students and the lecturers to enable transparency between all the students and the lecturers. You can access the unit ilearn site from http://ilearn.mq.edu.au using your Student ID number and mymq Portal password. If you have any problems go to the http://www.mq.edu.au/ilearn/student_info/ If you have a personal question, please send an e-mail to one of the lecturers through the ilearn e-mail facility or alternatively a regular e-mail using your Macquarie University student e-mail account. The lecturers will make announcements via ilearn. Accordingly, you should make sure you log in and read the posts at least twice a week. STUDENT E-MAIL ADDRESSES If ilearn is down, students can send ordinary e-mail. However, students should at all times use their Macquarie University student e-mail accounts when contacting lecturers. E-mails from hotmail, yahoo, gmail and similar accounts will not be read even if they pass through our spam filter. Furthermore, students should check and read their Macquarie University student e-mail on a regular basis (at least twice a week). RECOMMENDED TEXT BOOKS AND OTHER REFERENCES Boomer K, Rogness N & Jersky B, Statistical consulting courses for undergraduates: fortune or folly, JSE, 15(3), 2007. (Electronic version QA276.18) Chatfield C, Problem Solving: A Statistician s Guide, 2nd ed., Chapman and Hall, London, 1995. (QA276.12.C457 1995) Derr J, Statistical Consulting: A Guide to Effective Communication, Duxbury 2000. (HA29.D386/2000) Boen J & Zahn D, The Human Side of Statistical Consulting, Lifetime Learning Pubs, Belmont CA, 1982. (Not available in library) Hand DJ and Everitt BS (eds.), The Statistical Consultant in Action, Cambridge Uni Press, 1987. (Sections 1, 2 and 4 are available in Google.books) Jersky B, Statistical consulting with undergraduates, ICOTS6, 2002. Mackisack M & Petocz P, Projects for advanced undergraduates, ICOTS6, 2002. Rothman E, Teaching students and staff consultancy skills, ICOTS7, 2006. Smith H & Walker J, Experiences with research teams comprised of graduate students, faculty researchers and a statistical consulting team, ICOTS8, 2010. Finch S & Gordon I, Lessons we have learned from post-graduate students, ICOTS8, 2010. McGinn M, Learning to use statistics in research: a case study of learning in a university-based statistical consulting centre, SERJ, 2010. Wild C & Pfannkuch M, Statistical thinking in empirical enquiry, International Statistical Review, 67(3), 1-12. Peter Petocz, Anna Reid (2010) On Becoming a Statistician A Qualitative View. International Statistical Review. 78(2): 271 286. ICOTS, SERJ and Int Stat Review papers are available at http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications.php 3
LEARNING OUTCOMES AND GRADUATE CAPABILITIES MAPPING In addition to discipline specific learning outcomes, all academic programs at Macquarie assist students to develop or enhance capabilities in a range of areas. The Macquarie Graduate Capabilities are listed below: GC1. Discipline specific knowledge and skills GC2. Critical, analytical and integrative thinking GC3. Problem solving and research capability GC4. Effective communication GC5. Socially and environmentally active and responsible GC6. Creative and innovative GC7. Commitment to continuous learning GC8. Capable of professional and personal judgement and initiative GC9. Engaged and ethical local and global citizens The relationship between Graduate Capabilities and student learning outcomes are shown below as a reference to Graduate Capabilities above. Learning Outcomes: LO1: Identify appropriate statistical techniques for authentic client projects and solve their problem (1, 2 and 4) LO2: Enhance their critical thinking skills through self reflection and peer assessment (All GCs) LO3: Ask appropriate questions to identify a statistical problem (2, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 9) LO4: Improve their ability to work co-operatively as a team member (4, 5, 7, 8 and 9) LO5: Write reports at an appropriate statistical level for a client or a colleague (All GCs) LO6: Give a verbal summary of a statistical investigation at a level appropriate for the audience (All GCs) LO7: Discuss the ethical aspects and implications of professional statistical work (1, 4, 5, 8 and 9) LO8: Recognise situations in which familiar techniques do not apply and search the literature for appropriate alternative techniques (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9) TEACHING AND LEARNING STRATEGY Students are expected to attend all the lectures and the tutorials. Readings will be provided through ilearn. Weekly tutorial exercises are set for individual development and considered formative assessment (no marks but suggestions for improvement will be given weekly to each student and as group feedback). Assessments are designed to enhance self reflection and peer assessment as well as providing individual learning if a real life problem requires an unknown statistical technique to be used for a proper solution to the problem at hand. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ASSESSMENT AND LEARNING OUTCOMES While attendance at classes is important, it is only a small proportion of the total workload for the unit: reading, research in the library, working with other students in groups, completing assignments, using the computer and private study are all parts of the work involved. At Macquarie it is expected that the average student should spend three hours per week per credit point. If for any reason, students cannot hand in their assessment tasks on time, they must contact one of the teaching staff in advance. No extensions will be granted unless 4
satisfactory documentation outlining illness or misadventure is submitted. In these circumstances you may wish to consider applying for Special Consideration. Information about unavoidable disruption and the special consideration process is available at http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/special_consideration/policy.html and http://www.registrar.mq.edu.au/forms/apscons.pdf You can submit your special consideration request(s) through the following link http://ask.mq.edu.au/ Students should submit their assessments through ilearn. If you are unable to submit through ilearn (due to technical problems); an electronic (word) file can be e-mailed to Ayse Bilgin (ayse.bilgin@mq.edu.au). Only word format files will be accepted; each page should have the student ID and student name as footer. When naming files please adopt the following convention: StudentID-(Your Surname)(Initial of Your First Name) Assessment Task (Lab 1 or Assignment 1) e.g., 40000000-BilginA-Project 1. No other format of naming of the assessment tasks will be accepted. Special Consideration will only be granted to students whose performance in all parts of the coursework is satisfactory. There is no final exam for this unit. Students are expected to gain a reasonable level of proficiency in weekly topics by attending and participating in lectures and tutorials and completing their tutorial exercises. A student s raw overall mark for STAT399 is a combination of the following assessments: ASSESSMENT TASKS AND LEARNING OUTCOMES MAPPING Assessment Learning Outcomes Description % Assessment Task 1 LO2 Self Reflection on Previous Learning 5% Assessment Task 2 LO2, LO8 Literature review on Statistical Consulting Formative * Assessment Task 3 LO1 LO5, LO7, LO8 Statistical analysis and report (individual) 25% Assessment Task 4 LO1, LO2, LO3, LO4, LO7, LO8 Self reflection on client meetings Formative Assessment Task 5 LO2, LO4 Peer Feedback on client meetings Formative Assessment Task 6 Assessment Task 7 Assessment Task 8 Assessment Task 9 LO1, LO2, LO3, LO4, LO7, LO8 LO1, LO2, LO3, LO4, LO5, LO6, LO7, LO8 LO2, LO4, LO5 LO1, LO2, LO3, LO6, LO7, LO8 5 Project Plan 10% Work with a real client, write a report + present the results (orally)+ Provide memos and minutes of group meetings (including client meetings) Self Reflection on Group Process, technical aspects of the group project and statistical consulting experience 30% + 10% + Formative 10% Participation on lectures and tutorials 10% Total 100% * Formative assessment is an assessment where students are provided with feedback to their submission but no marks are recorded for their submission. They are designed to help students learn without the fear of failure. The mark (SNG) recorded for this unit will be based on the weighted components above.
GRADING Your final grade in STAT399 will be based on your work during semester and in the final examination as specified above. The grades allocated are as set out in the Grading Policy (http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/grading/policy.html) as follows: High Distinction (HD): Provides consistent evidence of deep and critical understanding in relation to the learning outcomes. There is substantial originality and insight in identifying, generating and communicating competing arguments, perspectives or problem solving approaches; critical evaluation of problems, their solutions and their implications; creativity in application as appropriate to the discipline. Distinction (D): Provides evidence of integration and evaluation of critical ideas, principles and theories, distinctive insight and ability in applying relevant skills and concepts in relation to learning outcomes. There is demonstration of frequent originality in defining and analysing issues or problems and providing solutions; and the use of means of communication appropriate to the discipline and the audience. Credit (Cr): Provides evidence of learning that goes beyond replication of content knowledge or skills relevant to the learning outcomes. There is demonstration of substantial understanding of fundamental concepts in the field of study and the ability to apply these concepts in a variety of contexts; convincing argumentation with appropriate coherent justification; communication of ideas fluently and clearly in terms of the conventions of the discipline. Pass (P): Provides sufficient evidence of the achievement of learning outcomes. There is demonstration of understanding and application of fundamental concepts of the field of study; routine argumentation with acceptable justification; communication of information and ideas adequately in terms of the conventions of the discipline. The learning attainment is considered satisfactory or adequate or competent or capable in relation to the specified outcomes. Fail (F): Does not provide evidence of attainment of learning outcomes. There is missing or partial or superficial or faulty understanding and application of the fundamental concepts in the field of study; missing, undeveloped, inappropriate or confusing argumentation; incomplete, confusing or lacking communication of ideas in ways that give little attention to the conventions of the discipline. Please note that a student must meet the performance standard outlined above in both the coursework and the examination sections of this unit in order to be awarded a particular grade. Your final result will include one of these grades plus a standardised numerical grade (SNG). 6
ACADEMIC HONESTY The University defines academic honesty as: "Plagiarism involves using the work of another person and presenting it as one's own." Plagiarism is a serious breach of the University's rules and carries significant penalties. You must read the University's practices and procedures on plagiarism. These can be found in the Academic Honesty Policy at: http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/academic_honesty/policy.html This policy and procedures explain what plagiarism is, how to avoid it, the procedures that will be taken in cases of suspected plagiarism, and the penalties if you are found guilty. Penalties may include a deduction of marks, failure in the unit, and/or referral to the University Discipline Committee. E4B COMPUTER LABS Opening hours of computing laboratories: During semester: 8am - 10pm Mon-Fri 9am - 5pm Sat-Sun For opening hours during semester breaks see notices outside the rooms. Look for additional information on the whiteboards in the labs. Please note that computing labs may be booked for classes. Check the timetable on the door of the lab to make sure that the room is free. STUDENT SUPPORT SERVICES Macquarie University provides a range of Academic Student Support Services. Details of these services can be accessed at http://www.student.mq.edu.au. There are specific workshops for international students that help them to integrate into Australian Education System http://www.international.mq.edu.au/. The Macquarie University Writing Skills Program can help you with your writing problems in several ways. The details of the Program, recorded lectures and the time table can be accessed at http://www.ling.mq.edu.au/support/writing_skills/brochure.htm 7
STAT399 Statistical Consulting UNIT SCHEDULE WEEK Week 1 2 Aug Week 2 9 Aug Week 3 16 Aug Week 4 23 Aug Week 5 30 Aug Week 6 6 Sep Week 7 13 Sep Week 8 4 Oct Week 9 11 Oct Week 10 18 Oct Week 11 25 Oct Week 12 1 Nov Week 13 8 Nov LECTURE TOPIC Introduction to Statistical Consulting Human Side of Statistical Consulting & Literature Review Asking the right questions (oral communication skills) Working in a group (skills required for effective group work) Ethics and statistics Statistical thinking Data preparation for analysis Statistical graphics Writing a statistical report (written communication skills) Project Work Mini lectures Project Work Mini lectures Project Work Mini lectures Teaching Staff AB, KB, PP AB, Doug Shaw KB AB PP AB AB PP KB AB PP KB Guest lecturer or a visit to SSAI AB monthly meeting or a visit to Department of Statistics Research Seminars and Revision The order of the lectures might change 8
TIME TABLE FOR THE ASSESSMENT TASKS STAT399 Assessment Description Week Out Week In Due Date^ % Prepared by Marked by Assessment Task 1 Self Reflection on Previous Learning 1 2 9/8/2012 5% A 2 B 2 A 2 B 2 Assessment Task 2 Literature review on Statistical Consulting 2 3 16/8/2012 Formative * A 2 B 2 P 2 Assessment Task 3 Statistical analysis and report (individual) 3 5 30/8/2012 25% A 2 B 2 BJ Assessment Task 4 + Self reflection on client meetings 4 12 1/11/2012 Formative A 2 B 2 Assessment Task 5 Peer Feedback on client meetings 4 12 1/11/2012 Formative A 2 B 2 Assessment Task 6 Project Plan 4 6 6/9/2012 10% A 2 B 2 Assessment Task 7 Assessment Task 8 Work with a real client, write a report + present the results (orally)+ Provide memos and minutes of group meetings (including client meetings) Self Reflection on Group Process, technical aspects of the group project and statistical consulting experience 4 13 8/11/2012 30% + 10% + Formative 5 15 19/11/2012 ++ 10% Assessment Task 9 Participation on lectures and tutorials Ongoing participation 10% Total 100% BJ P 2 * Formative assessment is an assessment where students are provided with feedback to their submission but no marks are recorded for their submission. They are designed to help students learn without the fear of failure. ^ All assessment tasks are due at 8am + We advise that you submit more than one copy of these reflections and feedback between the specified weeks as the client meetings take place. ++ Week 15 is during the examination period. 9