Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria Economics Department, University of Minho Campus de Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal http://sites.google.com/site/aguiarconraria lfaguiar@eeg.uminho.pt Male, Portuguese, born on September 6, 1974. Research Areas: Political Economy, Time Series Wavelet Analysis, Forecasting Methods, Energy Economics, Business Cycles. EDUCATION Habilitation Economics University of Minho, Portugal October 2013 Ph.D. Economics (Macroeconomics and Econometrics) Cornell University, USA September 2005 Dissertation title: Indeterminacy, Economic Fluctuations, Bubbles and Empirical Sunspots Committee chair: Karl Shell Other Committee members: Yi Wen, Nicholas Kiefer and Yongmiao Hong M. A. Economics Cornell University, USA September 2003 M. A. Economics, specialization in Quantitative Methods University of Porto, Portugal December 2000 Licentiate Economics University of Coimbra, Portugal September 1997 PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE University of Minho Braga, Portugal Associate Professor 04/2012 to present o Economic Dynamics, Statistics, Monetary Economics, Time Series, Econometrics, Macroeconomics, etc. Assistant Professor 09/2005-04/2012 University of Porto, Economics School Porto, Portugal Lecturer: Macroeconometrics, 1 st year Economics Ph.D. course March June 2008 University of Lisbon, Social Sciences Institute Lisbon, Portugal Summer Course Lecturer: Dynamic Econometrics June 23-27/2008 International Monetary Fund Washington, USA Summer Internship Summer 2005 o World Coincident and Leading Indexes
Cornell University Ithaca, USA Teaching Assistant 08/2002-12/2004 o Macroeconomics and Econometrics (graduate) and Macroeconomics (undergrad) University of Minho Braga, Portugal Teaching Assistant 04/1998-07/2001 o Undergraduate courses of Macroeconomics, Econometrics, and Political Economy IGCP (Portuguese Public Debt Management Institute) Lisbon, Portugal Trainee 11/97-03/1998 ADMINISTRATIVE POSITIONS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINHO Vice-President of the School of Economics and Management 10/2014-Present Assistant-Director of the Ph.D. in Economics 10/2012-Present Head of the Economics Department: 04/2014-01/2015 Vice-President of the School of Economics and Management 04/2010-10/2011 Assistant-Director of the Economics Department 09/2007-04/2010 Director of the Master of Mathematical Economics and Finance 09/2009-07/2011 Assistant-Director of the Master of Math Economics and Finance 10/2006-09/2009 Assistant-Director of Licenciatura in Economics 09/2005-09/2007 REFEREED PUBLICATIONS Academic Journals 1. Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts, forthcoming, Experimental Economics, doi: 10.1007/s10683-015-9473-9 (Joint work with Pedro Magalhães and Christoph Vanberg.) 2. Energy and carbon prices: a comparison of interactions in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Western Climate Initiative market, forthcoming, Carbon Management, doi: 10.1080/17583004.2015.1097007 (Joint work with Rita Sousa.) 3. The Continuous Wavelet Transform: moving beyond uni and bivariate analysis, 2014, Journal of Economic Surveys, 28, issue 2, pages 344 375 (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares.) 4. Carbon financial markets: A time frequency analysis of CO 2 prices, 2014, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Issue 414, 118-127 (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares & Rita Sousa.) 5. The Nationalization of Electoral Cycles in the United States, 2013, Public Choice, 156, Issue 3-4, pp 387-408. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares and Pedro C. Magalhães.)
6. Convergence of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysis, 2013, Journal of Common Market Studies, 51, Issue 3, pages 377 39. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares and Manuel M. F. Martins.) 7. Forecasting Spanish Elections, 2012, International Journal of Forecasting, 28 (4), 769-776. (Joint work with Pedro C. Magalhães & Michael S. Lewis-Beck.) 8. OPEC's Oil Exporting Strategy and Macroeconomic (In)Stability, 2012, Energy Economics 34(1), 132-136. (Joint work with Yi Wen.) 9. The Yield Curve and the Macro-Economy Across Time and Frequencies, 2012, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, volume 36, issue 12, pages 1950 1970 (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares and Manuel M. F. Martins.) 10. Foreign Direct Investment and Home Country Political Risk: The Case of Brazil, 2012, Latin American Research Review 47(2), 144-165. (Joint work with Sandra Aguiar, Mohamed Azzim & Pedro C. Magalhães.) 11. O Euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual, 2012, Análise Social, 203, XLVII (2º), 298-321. (Joint work with Fernando Alexandre and Manuel Correia de Pinho.) 12. Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series, 2012, American Journal of Political Science 56(2), 500-518. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares and Pedro C. Magalhães.) 13. Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis, 2011, Journal of Macroeconomics 33, 477 489. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares.) 14. Oil and the Macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues, 2011, Empirical Economics 40, 645-655. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares.) 15. Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout, 2010, Public Choice 144(1-2), 63-81. Joint work with Pedro C. Magalhães.) 16. How Quorum Rules Distort Referendum Outcomes: Evidence from a Pivotal Voter Model, 2010, European Journal of Political Economy 26, 541-557. (Joint work with Pedro C. Magalhães.) 17. Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections, 2009, Electoral Studies 28, 314-321. (Joint work with Pedro C. Magalhães.) 18. A Note on Oil Dependence and Economic Instability, 2008, Macroeconomic Dynamics 12, 717-723. (Joint work with Yi Wen.) 19. A Note on the Stability Properties of Goodwin's Predator-Prey Model, 2008, Review of Radical Political Economics 40, 518-523. 20. Using Wavelets to Decompose the Time-Frequency Effects of Monetary Policy, 2008, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 387, 2863-2878. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares & Nuno Azevedo.) 21. Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Large Oil Shocks, 2007, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 39, 925-944.(Joint work with Yi Wen.) 22. Capital Gains, 2006, International Journal of Economic Theory 3-4, pp. 331-349. (Joint work with Karl Shell.)
23. Capital Gains: Red and Blue Machines, 2005, Singapore Economic Review 50, pp. 437-448. (Joint work with Karl Shell.) 24. Public vs. Private Schooling in an Endogenous Growth Model, 2005, Economics Bulletin 9, 1-6. 25. The Adequacy of the Traditional Econometric Approach to Nonlinear Cycles, 2003, Notas Económicas 17, 70-83. Book Chapters 26. Application of Wavelets to the Study of Political History, 2015. In Robert A. Meyers (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (pp 1-16). Springer Berlin Heidelberg. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares and Pedro Magalhães.) 27. Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area, 2014. In Gallegati, Marco, Semmler, Willi (Eds.), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance (pp. 143-156). Springer Verlag. (Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, 20). (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares and Teresa Rodrigues.) 28. Inflation rate dynamics convergence within the Euro, 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 8579 LNCS (PART 1), pp. 132-145. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares.) NONREFEREED PUBLICATIONS Work in Progress Estimating the Taylor Rule in the Time-Frequency Domain. Submitted to Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. (Joint work with Manuel Martins and Maria Joana Soares.) Carbon and Energy Prices: Surfing the Wavelets of California. Submitted to Energy Economics. (Joint work with Rita Sousa and Maria Joana Soares.) Book Reviews Challenges Ahead for the Portuguese Economy, Francesco Franco (editor) ISBN: 978-972-671-227-5, published in South European Society & Politics Vol. 14, No. 2, 239-240, September 2009. Other Scientific Publications Wavelets and Economics, Bulletin of the International Center for Mathematics, July 2011, pp. 10 18. (Joint work with Maria Joana Soares.) As sondagens e os resultados eleitorais em Portugal, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Spring 2011, pp. 37 52. (Joint work with Pedro Magalhães and Manuel Maria Pereira.) Uma previsão dos resultados das eleições legislativas de 2009, IPRISverbis, 8, July 2008 (joint with Pedro Magalhães). Indeterminacy, Economic Fluctuations, Bubbles and Empirical Sunspots, PhD dissertation, Cornell University, 2005 The Dynamical Decomposition of Growth and Cycles, Master Thesis, University of Porto 2000. Non-Scientific Publications Several articles in Portuguese newspapers, mainly in Público but also in others, such as Diário Económico, Diário de Notícias, Primeiro de Janeiro, etc.
CONFERENCES 8th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, University of Pisa, Italy, December 2014, Analyzing the Taylor Rule with Wavelet Lenses. 8 th Portuguese Economic Journal Meetings, Braga, Portugal, July 2014, Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts. 50th Anniversary Conference of The Public Choice Society, New Orleans, United States of America, March 2013, Quorum Rules and Voting Outcomes: Evidence from a Lab Experiment. 6 th CSDA International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, Oviedo, Spain, December 2012, Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area. 1 st Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, Dublin, Ireland, June 2011, Synchronism in Electoral Cycles: How United are the United States? 4 th Portuguese Economic Journal Meetings, Faro, Portugal, June 2010, How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: evidence from a pivotal voter model Lisbon Discussion Group on Institutions and Public Policy, March 2010, On waves of War and Elections. Annual Meeting & Exhibition, American Political Science Association, Toronto, Canada, September 2009, Dynamical Decomposition of Political Time-Series: An Application of Wavelet Analysis to Electoral Cycles in the United States Presidential Elections. 15th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance, Sydney, Australia, July 2009, Business Cycle Synchronization Across the Euro Area: a Wavelet Analysis. 3 rd Portuguese Economic Journal Meetings, Madeira, Portugal, June 2009, Business Cycle Synchronization Across the Euro Area: a Wavelet Analysis Conference 10 Years of the Euro adjustment in capital and labour markets, Universidade do Minho, Braga, May 2009, Business Cycle Synchronization Across the Euro Area: a Wavelet Analysis NIPE, Universidade do Minho, March 2009, Distortions in referendum outcomes caused by quorum rules: Evidence from a pivotal-voter model. ISCTE, Lisbon, October 2008, Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout. DYNA2008 Dynamics and Applications, Braga, Portugal, September 2008, Energy Cartel and Macroeconomic (In)Stability 1 st International Workshop on Empirical Methods in Energy Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, August 2008, Oil and the Macroeconomy: new tools to analyze old issues (poster presentation). NIPE, Universidade do Minho, February 2008, Wavelet Applications to Economic Data. Lisbon Discussion Group on Institutions and Public Policy, January 2008, Referendums, quorum rules and turnout: an empirical investigation. Society for Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting, June 2007, Prague, Czech Republic, Oil Dependence and Economic Instability. 13th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance, Montreal, Canada, June 2007, Oil Dependence and Economic Instability. Seminar in the Mathematics Department of the University of Minho, March 2007, Economics: the Quantitative Science. Seminar in the University of Minho, February 2007, Forecasting in Data-Rich Environments: An Application to Inflation Rates.
Seminar in the University of Minho, March 2006, Foreign Trade and Equilibrium Indeterminacy. Intertemporal Equilibria, Aggregation and Sunspots, October 2005, Conference in honor of Michel Grandmont, Capital Gains. International Monetary Fund, August 2005, Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks. Seminars at University of Minho and Technical University of Lisbon, Summer 2004. Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings, May 2004, Forecasting in Data-Rich Environments. Cornell University, Department of Economics seminar, April 2004, Oil Shocks: Shaking the Fundamentals or Our Confidence? Cornell University/Penn State University Macroeconomics Workshop, November 2003, Forecasting in Data-Rich Environments ORGANIZATION OF SCIENTIFIC EVENTS July 2014:8 th Portuguese Economic Journal Meetings, Braga, Portugal. September 2009 August 2010: NIPE (Economic Policies Research Unit) seminars series June 2008: 5 th NIPE Summer School, University of Minho: Bayesian Econometrics, Professor James Hamilton (co-organizer). July 2007: 4 th NIPE Summer School, University of Minho: Quantitative Methods in Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis, Professor Ellen McGrattan. (co-organizer). November 2003: Cornell/Penn State Macro Workshop, Cornell University (co-organizer). HONORS AND AWARDS Best Researcher of the School of Business and Economics of the University of Minho: Award given in 2013 for the paper Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series, published in The American Journal of Political Science. Gulbenkian Prize for the Internationalization of Social Sciences. Award given for the best paper in Social Sciences published in 2008 and 2009 by an author younger than 40, working in a Portuguese institution award given in 2011 for the paper Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout, published in Public Choice. Best Researcher of the School of Business and Economics of the University of Minho: Award given in 2010 for the paper Using Wavelets to Decompose the Time-Frequency Effects of Monetary Policy, published in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. Best Teacher of the School of Business and Economics of the University of Minho: Award nominee (although not the winner) Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation grant of EUR 26,000 for the project Oil shocks and the Macroeconomy: Econometric estimation, economic modeling and policy implications (leader of team of 3 researchers), 2008-2010 Fundação Ciência e Tecnologia, doctoral scholarship, 2001-2005 Cornell University, Sage Fellowship, 2001-2005
SKILLS Languages: Native Portuguese, Fluent English IT: Statistical Software such as EVIEWS, LINDEP, GAUSS, STATA, MATLAB, etc. REFEREEING Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, American Journal of Political Science, Public Choice; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Portuguese Economic Journal; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Economics Bulletin; Análise Social; Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis; Journal of International Economics; Journal of Applied Economics, Economic Modelling, etc. REFERENCES Yi Wen, Assistant Vice-President, Research Division, Fed. Res. Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166, USA, Phone: (+1) 314 444 8559, Fax: 314 444 8731, E-mail: yi.wen@stls.frb.org Christoph Vanberg, Professor and Head of the Chair Alfred-Weber-Institut, Department of Economics, University of Heidelberg, Phone: +49 6221 54 2912, E-mail: vanberg@uni-hd.de Pedro Magalhães, Researcher at the Social Sciences Institute of the University of Lisbon, Phone: +351 965394215, E-mail: pedro.magalhaes@ics.ul.pt Maria Joana Soares, Professor of Mathematics, Mathematics Department, University of Minho, Braga 4710, Portugal, Phone: (+351) 919 738 508, E-mail: jsoares@math.uminho.pt Manuel Rocha Armada, Professor of Finance, Dean of the School of Economics and Management, University of Minho, Braga 4710, Portugal, Phone: (+351) 968 029 707, E-mail: rarmada@eeg.uminho.pt