Race, Class, and the Selective College Experience Thomas J. Espenshade Alexandria Walton Radford Chang Young Chung Office of Population Research Princeton University December 15, 2009 1
Overview of NSCE Project Purpose of the study Data used institutional data student survey other extant data 2
Three Questions for Today Do we still need affirmative action? Mixing and mingling on campus: Is the promise of diversity being realized? Does elite higher education perpetuate inequality? 3
I. Do We Still Need Affirmative Action? 4
TABLE 2.1 Descriptive Statistics for the Combined Applicant Pool at Seven NSCE Colleges and Universities NSCE Applicant Sample: Fall 1997 Cohort (N=3,670) Characteristic Percent Race White 68.1 Black 6.8 Hispanic 5.2 Asian 20.0 Socioeconomic Status Upper 4.9 Upper Middle 46.8 Middle 37.7 Working 9.3 Lower 1.3 First Generation College Student First Generation 18.1 Not First Generation 81.6 Unknown 0.3 Source: NSCE 5
TABLE 3.2 Differences Between Applicants to Public and Private NSCE Institutions in Acceptance Rates and Standardized Test Scores, Fall 1997 Category Public Institutions Applicants to Private Institutions Overall Acceptance Rate (percent) 55.1 23.8 SAT Score Average for all applicants 1205 1341 ACT Score Average for all applicants 25.9 29.0 Percent in 30 36 range 17.7 52.1 SAT II (Achievement) Tests Percent taking none 50.2 7.4 Average number of tests taken 2.8 3.8 Average test scores(s) 598 649 Percent scoring 650 or above 32.2 56.0 Percent scoring 750 or above 0.7 6.2 Advanced Placement Examinations Percent taking none 37.8 14.3 Average number of tests taken 2.6 4.1 Source: NSCE; Educational Testing Service 6
TABLE 3.3 Acceptance Rates to Public and Private NSCE Institutions, by Race and Social Class, Fall 1997 Percent Admitted Item Public Institutions Private Institutions Total 55.1 23.8 Race White 56.2 25.7 Black 58.5 31.0 Hispanic 40.8 26.7 Asian 39.9 18.4 Social Class Lower 57.8 23.2 Working 51.5 18.3 Middle 57.4 21.2 Upper Middle 53.7 27.4 Upper 65.0 25.1 Source: NSCE 7
TABLE 3.5 Race and Social Class Admission Preferences at Public and Private Institutions Measured in ACT and SAT Points, Fall 1997 Item Public Institutions ACT Point Equivalents (out of 36) Private Institutions SAT Point Equivalents (out of 1600) Race (White) Black 3.8 310 Hispanic 0.3 130 Asian 3.4 140 Social Class Lower 0.1 130 Working 0.0 70 (Middle) Upper Middle 0.3 50 Upper 0.4 30 Source: NSCE 8
TABLE 3.7 Odds Ratios from Logistic Regression Estimates of the Effect of Race, Immigrant Generation, and Social Class on Admission Probabilities to Private NSCE Institutions, Fall 1997 Predictor Variables Private Disaggregated Race (White) Black descendants 9.81*** Black non descendants 3.89*** Hispanic 1 st generation 1.11 Hispanic 2 nd generation 2.79*** Hispanic 3 rd and higher generation 1.68 Asian 1 st generation 0.39** Asian 2 nd generation 0.27*** Asian 3 rd and higher generation 0.61 Social Class Low 1.44 (Middle) High 1.26 Number of observations 2765 p < 0.10; * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001 Source: NSCE 9
Six Year Graduation Rates at NSCE Institutions, by Race and Social Class; 1993 and 1997 Entering Cohorts Combined (N=4,390) White Black Hispanic Asian 78% 89% 88% 92% Total 89% Upper Upper Middle Middle Working Lower 90% 90% 89% 79% 81% Source: National Study of College Experience 10
TABLE 6.1 Odds Ratio Results from Logistic Regressions Examining Six Year Graduation Rates NSCE Matriculant Data: 1993 and 1997 Cohorts (N=4,390) Bowen and Bok Model a (1) NSCE Model b (2) Predictor Variables Race (White) Black 0.47*** 0.57** Hispanic 0.83 0.53** Asian 1.26 0.68 Social Class Upper Middle and Upper Class 1.08 0.69 (Middle Class) Lower and Working Class 0.55* 0.78 College Selectivity Most Selective Tier 1.99** 1.68 Second Most Selective Tier 1.18 1.29 (All Other Colleges) 11
Percentile Class Rank at Graduation for Those Graduating from NSCE Institutions Within Six Years, by Race; 1993 and 1997 Entering Cohorts Combined (N=3,788) 26% 5% 8% 14% 9% 13% 20% Top Quintile 21% 23% 17% 21% 21% 28% 22% 17% 51% 20% 33% 16% 17% Bottom White Black Hispanic Asian Source: National Study of College Experience 12
TABLE 6.2 OLS Regression Results for Percentile Class Rank at Graduation NSCE Matriculant Data: 1993 and 1997 Cohorts (N=3,788) Predictor Variables Race (White) Black 17.3*** Hispanic 14.9*** Asian 9.9*** Social Class Upper Middle and Upper Class 3.4 (Middle Class) Lower and Working Class 3.1 College Selectivity Most Selective Tier 18.4*** Second Most Selective Tier 15.4*** (All Other Colleges) 13
TABLE 9.1 Effect of Eliminating Affirmative Action at Private Institutions: Simulation Results, Fall 1997 Difference From Observed Baseline Admitted If Observed Baseline Observed Baseline No Affirmative Race Neutral Item Applications Admitted Action Admission Total 51,836 12,233 0 0 Race (%) White 55.7 59.9 4.6 6.5 Black 6.3 8.3 4.7 5.5 Hispanic 7.0 7.9 2.1 3.2 Asian 31.0 23.9 2.2 15.1 Social Class (%) Lower 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.2 Working 10.7 8.3 2.0 4.3 Middle 38.0 33.4 0.4 5.8 Upper Middle 43.0 49.6 2.5 0.5 Upper 6.8 7.2 0.7 0.1 Mean SAT Score 1,340 1,405 5 10 14
TABLE 9.3 Effect of Substituting Other Policies for Affirmative Action at Private Institutions: Simulation Results, Fall 1997 Difference From Observed Baseline Admitted If Item Observed Baseline Admitted No Affirmative Action More Low Income Weight No Affirmative Action, More Low Income Weight, Less Emphasis on Academic Performance No Affirmative Action, More Low Income Weight, No Weight to Academic Performance Total 12,233 0 0 0 Race (%) White 59.9 3.0 2.4 2.2 Black 8.3 4.3 2.5 0.7 Hispanic 7.9 1.7 1.0 0.6 Asian 23.9 2.9 1.1 0.9 Social Class (%) Lower 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.4 Working 8.3 4.5 6.7 8.4 Middle 33.4 4.0 5.2 5.1 Upper Middle 49.6 2.9 4.7 7.4 Upper 7.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 Mean SAT Score 1,405 5 34 76 15
Conclusions? 16
I. Do We Still Need Affirmative Action? II. Mixing and Mingling on Campus? III. Does Elite Higher Education Perpetuate Inequality? 17
TABLE 5.3 Students Social Relations with Students of a Different Race or the Same Race NSCE Matriculant Sample: 1980s, 1993, and 1997 Cohorts Combined (N=6,350) Social Relation Percent Socialize Often/Very Often with Students of a Different Race 62.8 Students of the Same Race 92.4 Live with at Least One Student of a Different Race 51.2 Student of the Same Race 87.8 Have a Close Friendship with a Student of a Different Race 50.9 Student of the Same Race 92.5 Date at Least One Student of a Different Race 35.8 Student of the Same Race 83.9 Source: National Study of College Experience 18
Patterns of Social Interaction, by Race: 1980s, 1993, 1997 Cohorts Combined Race of Respondent Percent Socializing Often/Very Often with Percent Living with at Least One Percent Having a Close Friendship with a Percent Dating at Least One Mean Row Percent White Student(s) of the Same Race 96.3 95.0 97.0 90.0 (95) Student(s) of a Different Race 56.5 42.1 43.7 29.5 (43) Black Student(s) of the Same Race 86.5 70.9 87.1 75.9 (80) Student(s) of a Different Race 76.6 75.2 62.3 41.8 (64) Asian Student(s) of the Same Race 80.6 65.7 79.3 59.1 (71) Student(s) of a Different Race 86.6 84.9 79.0 59.0 (77) Hispanic Student(s) of the Same Race 60.9 37.4 50.9 47.2 (49) Student(s) of a Different Race 94.3 92.4 93.3 83.7 (91) Source: NSCE 19
Pairwise Racial Patterns of Social Interaction on NSCE College Campuses; NSCE Matriculant Data: 1980s, 1993, and 1997 Cohorts Combined (N=6,350) White Hispanic.60 White Asian.42 Hispanic Asian.39 Black Hispanic.35 Black Asian.20 Black White.14 Relative Likelihood of Between Group Versus Within Group Social Interaction 20
How Much Students Learned From Other Students of Different Racial and Ethnic Backgrounds Source: National Study of College Experience 21
Patterns of Social Interaction on Campus and Whether Students Learned a Lot From Diversity Source: National Study of College Experience 22
The Challenge? 23
I. Do We Still Need Affirmative Action? II. Mixing and Mingling on Campus? III. Does Elite Higher Education Perpetuate Inequality? 24
Percent of Enrolled Students from Upper Middle or Upper Class Backgrounds, by Cohort 53.1% 48.7% 52.2% 58.0% Source: National Study of College Experience 25
Social Class Acceptance Rates by Social Class, Fall 1997 All Applicants Public Institutions Private Institutions Higher 37 54 27 Middle 33 57 21 Lower 26 52 19 Total 34.6 55.1 23.8 Source: NSCE 26
Effect of Race and Social Class on the Probability of Being Admitted to Private NSCE Institutions, All Other Things Held Constant, 1997 Source: National Study of College Experience 27
Social Class Profile of NSCE Students from Application to College Graduation, 1997 Cohort Source: National Study of College Experience 28
Category TABLE 8.1 Combined Percentage of Upper Middle and Upper Class Students in Successive Stages of the Application to Graduation Process, 1997 Cohort All Applicants All Accepted Students All Matriculants Graduated Within Six Years All Students 51.7 56.5 60.1 60.0 Public 56.9 56.6 60.9 60.4 Private 49.1 56.3 59.4 59.6 White 57.8 61.1 65.4 64.9 Black 26.0 25.0 27.6 27.7 Hispanic 37.1 38.2 38.3 39.4 Asian 43.2 55.2 56.1 56.2 Source: National Study of College Experience 29
The Challenge? 30
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