Emerging Demand vs. Availability of Talent in the Greater Philadelphia Region By Phil Hopkins Vice President and Director of Research Select Greater Philadelphia Thursday, March 19, 2009
Private Sector Employment Trends Philadelphia & Trenton MSAs 3.00 Location Quotieint - September 2008 Information, 62.9 Financial Activities, 231.0 Manufacturing, 217.7 Trade, Transportation and Utilities, 550.4 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 - Professional & Business Services, 464.3 Natural Resources, Mining and Construction, 124.9 Education and Health Services, 579.7 Other Servcies, 134.3-6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Annual Employment Growth Rate - Dec. 2000 to Dec. 2008 Leisure and Hospitality Services, 235.5 Bubble size and numbers are number of jobs by sector (in 1,000s) in December 2008
Employment Change by Sector: City and Suburbs -120.0-100.0-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0-5.1 15.4 Construction, N.R & Mining -103.7-42.6 Manufacturing Change in Number of Jobs (thousands) -38.3-9.1-24.2 Prof. & Business Svcs. -4.8 Ed. & Health Svcs. Leisure & Hospitality Svcs. Other Svcs.. -2.0 2.6 Information F inancial Activities 14.2 32.9 57.2 47.8 55.0 49.3 Trade, Trans. & Utilities 132.8 145.8 Government -29.0 54.5 Suburban Counties City of Philadelphia Source: Global Insight, 2008.
Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Labor Force Growth 1990 to Present 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jun-91 Oct-91 Feb-92 Jun-92 Oct-92 Feb-93 Jun-93 Oct-93 Feb-94 Jun-94 Oct-94 Feb-95 Jun-95 Oct-95 Feb-96 Jun-96 Oct-96 Feb-97 Jun-97 O ct-97 Feb-98 Jun-98 Oct-98 Feb-99 Jun-99 Oct-99 Feb-00 Jun-00 O ct-00 Feb-01 Jun-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07-0.5% -1.0% Annual average for PHL & TRE = 0.5% Annual Average for U.S. = 1.2% Philadelphia & Trenton M SAs U.S. Sources: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, 2009. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009. %Change Year Ago (6-month moving average)
Occupational Employment in 2007 by Level of Education and Experience Education and Training Philadelphia and Trenton U.S. Ratio Work experience in a related occupation 5.8% 7.6% 0.77 Short-term on-the-job training 36.1% 35.6% 1.01 Moderate-term on-the-job training 18.4% 19.9% 0.93 Long-term on-the-job training 5.8% 7.6% 0.76 Postsecondary vocational award 6.0% 5.4% 1.10 Associate degree 4.9% 3.7% 1.33 Bachelor's degree 14.2% 11.7% 1.22 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work exp. 4.1% 4.5% 0.92 Master's degree 1.8% 1.5% 1.19 First professional degree 1.6% 1.3% 1.27 Doctoral degree 1.3% 1.3% 0.94 % Bachelors and Higher 23.0% 20.2% 1.14 % Advanced 4.6% 4.1% 1.14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2008. Occupational Employment Statistics.
Share of Occupational Employment Requiring an Advanced Degree or Higher in 2007 Washington D.C. 5.9% Boston 4.9% Philadelphia and Trenton 4.6% New York 4.3% San Fran cisco 4.3% Chicago 3.6% Los Angeles 3.4% Detroit 3.4% Miami 3.4% Houston 3.2% Atlanta 2.8% Dallas 2.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2008. Occupational Employment Statistics
Top 15 Degree Areas in 2006/07 CIP Number Cumulative % Business, management, marketing, and related support services 14,489 18.5% Health professions and related clinical sciences 12,621 34.6% Education 8,771 45.9% Liberal arts and sciences, general studies and humanities 4,741 51.9% Social sciences 3,694 56.6% Visual and performing arts 3,594 61.2% Psychology 2,794 64.8% Engineering 2,749 68.3% Biological and biomedical sciences 2,204 71.1% Computer and information sciences and support services 2,061 73.8% Legal professions and studies 1,962 76.3% Communication, journalism, and related programs 1,877 78.7% English language and literature/letters 1,804 81.0% Public administration and social service professions 1,778 83.2% Security and protective services 1,683 85.4% Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2009.
Forecast Employment Growth by Sector 2008 Growth 2018 Rate Rank Change Rank Cons., NR & Mining 131.7 140.8 0.7% 4 9.2 6 Manufacturing 223.1 208.1-0.7% 13 (15.1) 13 Wholesale Trade 135.7 144.2 0.6% 5 8.4 7 Retail Trade 326.7 330.5 0.1% 11 3.8 9 Trans., Warehousing, & Utilities 99.9 115.4 1.4% 2 15.5 3 Information 63.1 64.2 0.2% 10 1.0 11 Financial Activities 232.9 241.1 0.3% 8 8.2 8 Professional & Business Svcs 469.9 560.4 1.8% 1 90.5 1 Educational & Health Svcs 577.8 662.3 1.4% 3 84.4 2 Leisure & Hospitality 238.4 249.9 0.5% 6 11.4 5 Other Services 134.2 136.6 0.2% 9 2.3 10 Federal Government 61.0 58.4-0.4% 12 (2.6) 12 State & Local Government 360.6 375.6 0.4% 7 15.0 4 Total Nonfarm 3,055.3 3,287.4 0.7% 232.1 Goods Producing 354.8 348.9-0.2% -5.9 Private, Services-Providing 2,278.9 2,504.5 0.9% 225.6 Labor Force (Thous.) 3,182.0 3,322.0 0.4% 140.0 Labor Force Participation Rate (Pct) 64.46 64.65 Source: Global Insight, Fall 2008 Long-term MSA Forecast
Labor Supply and Demand Concerns Metro Economic Growth is Positively Correlated With Rising Ed. Attainment - Esp. % with Associate s & Bachelor s Degrees Priv. Services Providing Sectors Is Where Job Growth Will Occur Continuing Demand for College Educated Workers - What Majors? STEM Education is Essential Current/Emerging Shortages of Skilled Technical and Mfg. Workers Potential Source of Competitive Advantage Continuing Education At All Levels Increasingly Important WIBs, Community Colleges & Employers will Play Key Role Need to Strengthen Career and Technical Education At All Levels Colleges and Universities are the Region s Primary Source of Competitive Advantage
Importance of Education As the world becomes more and more loosely integrated, the feature that will increasingly differentiate one geographic area from another will the quality of public institutions. The most successful areas will be the ones with the most competent and effective mechanisms for supporting collective interests, especially in the production of new ideas. Paul Romer, 1994, Stanford.