Millennium Development Goals Presentation to the Portfolio Committee on Economic Development 11 March 2011
MDGs Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
Link between outcomes and MDGs Outcome Relevant MDGs 1 Improved quality of basic education 2 2 A long and healthy life for all South Africans 4,5,6 3 All people in South Africa are and feel safe 2,3 4 Decent employment through inclusive economic growth 1,2,3,7,8 5 A skilled and capable workforce to support and inclusive growth path 2 6 An efficient, competitive and responsive economic infrastructure network; 1,3,8 7 Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities with food security for all 1,2,7 8 Sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life 2,3,7 9 A responsive, accountable, effective and efficient local government system; 1,2,3,8 10 Environmental assets and natural resources that are well protected and continually enhanced 11 Create a better South Africa and contribute to a better and safer Africa and world 1,2,7,8 2,3,7 12 An efficient, effective and development oriented public service and an empowered, fair and inclusive citizenship 1,2,3,8
Focus is on MDGs linked with Outcome Four Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
MDG Link with NGP and Outcome 4 MDG Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Link to NGP and Outcome 4 Poverty reduction and inequality through employment creation and sustainable livelihoods Skills development Inclusive growth and job creation Improving conditions in sectors with insecure employment conditions (agriculture) Green Economy and sustainable development Regional integration Sustainable development in South Africa and the region
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Outcome 4 and 8: Decent employment through inclusive growth and Sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life Goals and Targets Indicators 1994 baseline (or closest year) Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than US$1 a day Proportion of the population below US$ 1 a day Poverty gap ratio (incidence, times, depth of poverty) ($1 (PPP) per day) 11.3 (2000) 3.2 (2000) Current status 2010 (or nearest year) 5.0 (2006) 1.1 (2006) 2015 target Achievability 5.7 Achieved 1.6 Achieved Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 2.9 (2000) 2.8 (2006) 5.8 Unlikely Employment-to-population ratio 41.5 (2003) 42.5 50 70 Unlikely Gini coefficient (including salaries, wages and social grants) 0.70 (2000) 0.73 (2006) 0.3 Unlikely Gini coefficient (per capita expenditure excluding taxes) 0.65 (2000) 0.67 (2006) 0.3 Unlikely
Poverty gap Poverty Line Food poverty line Percentage below the poverty line Poverty gap 2000 2006 2000 2006 R148 28.5 R209 24.8 R148 10.4 R209 7.9 $1.00 (PPP*) 11.3 (0.72) $1.25 (PPP*) 17.0 (0.85) $2.00 (PPP*) 33.5 (1.23) $2.50 (PPP*) 42.2 (1.44) 5.0 (0.77) 9.7 (0.95) 25.3 (1.36) 34.8 (1.60) 3.2 1.1 5.4 2.3 13.0 8.1 18.0 12.5
Equality and income distribution Decile Black African Coloured Indian/Asian White Total income (ZAR billion) 1 93.2 3.2 0.5 3.0 1.1 2 94.2 4.0 0.8 1.0 9.0 3 93.0 5.4 0.4 1.1 16.2 4 90.3 7.9 0.8 1.0 21.5 5 83.6 12.0 2.6 1.7 26.2 6 78.7 16.0 2.7 2.6 35.4 7 78.7 13.6 2.4 5.0 47.6 8 63.7 12.9 7.0 16.1 76.7 9 47.8 11.4 6.8 33.8 133.0 10 17.0 5.5 4.7 72.7 381.0 Total income (ZAR bn) 41.2 8.6 4.8 45.3 747.6 % population 79.4 8.8 2.5 9.2 100 n=47.4 million %households 76.8 7.8 2.5 12.8 100 n=12.5million
Share of the poorest quintile Time period Income Consumption 2000 1.9 2.9 2006 1.8 2.8 Share of the lowest quintile (bottom 20%) in total consumption and income, shows a slight decline between 2000 and 2006
Employment to population ratio Low employment to population ratio, average since 2001; 51% for males 37% females. 43% Risk of high unemployment is a potential increase of poverty especially amongst females.
Conclusion Goal 1 Absolute poverty has declined, based on a period of economic growth combined with a series of redistributive measures Most notably, five-fold increase in the number of people benefiting from social grants. There have also been pro-poor investments in services such as sanitation, housing and others. Challenges, however, remain in South Africa. persistent inequality further attention needs to be paid to malnutrition and child health Focus on unemployment as a long-term solution that would potentially replace social assistance programmes. Key recommendations Municipalities should focus on Local Economic Development (LEDs) initiatives that are skills creating, employment generating and domestic production supporting Strengthened support to local entrepreneurs Scale-up of community and school gardens Increased support to women in cooperatives Land reform Improvements to EPWP Skills development t with a focus on artisan programs and mentorships Competition interventions to control prices
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Outcome 1: Improved quality of basic education (Key to Outcome 5 and 4 due to skills link) Goals and Targets Indicators 1994 baseline (or closest year) Current status 2010 (or nearest year) 2015 target Achievability Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling Net enrolment rate in primary education (Adjusted in SA) 96.4 (male 2002) 97.0 (female 2002) 99.4 (male 2009) 98.8 (female 2009) 100 Achieved Proportion of pupils starting Grade 1 who reach Grade 7 (Adjusted to Completion rate of primary education for 18 year olds) 89.6 (2002) 93.8 100 Likely Literacy rate of 15- to 24-year-olds 83.4 (male 2002) 88.4 (female 2002) 89 (male 2009) 93.1 (female 2009) 100 Likely
Literacy The number of 15 24-year-olds that are not functionally literate has been decreasing steadily from 13% in 2002 to less than 10% in 2009. Completion rates of primary education and higher for those aged 18 years increased from 89.6% in 2002 to 93.8% in 2009.
Conclusion: universal primary education Focus no longer on access, now more on quality Expanding the provision of infrastructure, facilities and learning resources at primary and secondary schools Making mathematics mandatory Improving access to Grade R Providing transport support Upscaling school nutrition and feeding schemes Further work needed to; Support the girl child at work Improve sanitation School maintenance interventions and support staff
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Also linked with Outcome 12: An empowered, fair and inclusive citizenship Goals and Targets Indicators 1994 baseline (or closest year) Current status 2010 (or nearest year) 2015 target Achievability Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and in all levels of education no later than 2015 Ratio of boys to girls in primary, secondary and tertiary education Primary 0.97: 1 (1996) Secondary 1.13:1 (1996) Tertiary 0.86:1 (1996) Primary 0.96:1 Secondary 1.05:1 Tertiary 1.26:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 Likely Achieved Achieved Ratio of literate females to males among 15- to 24- year olds 1.1:1 (1996) 1:1 1.1 Achieved Share of women in wage employment in the nonagricultural sector 43 (1996) 45 (2010) 50 Likely Proportion of seats held by women in the national parliament 25 (1994) 44 50 Likely
Gender parity in employment Year Male Female Female share 1996 4,91 3,23 43% 1999 5,30 3,99 43% 2005 5,36 4,14 44% 2010 5,62 6,72 45% Women s share of nonagricultural wage employment is an important indicator of progress made both on gender equality and women s empowerment in the labour force. In both 1996 and 1999, the female share of wage employment was 43% if agriculture was excluded. Only a marginal increase to 44% in 2005 and then 45% by 2010. Progress varies significantly by province e.g. in 2010; Women in the Northern and Eastern Cape accounted for more than half of employees in the non-agricultural sector, Women in the North West only accounted for 38.2%.
Conclusion Goal 3 The fact that women continue to have a higher rate of unemployment than men and tend to earn less than men THOUGH educational attainment rates are on average higher for women needs to be addressed. Women s share of non-agricultural wage employment unlikely to reach 50% without critical interventions such as; Encouraging a more equitable and non-gendered division of labour Addressing the limited provision of child care services for young dependents Interventions into gender-based violence need to be strengthened Women need to be further drawn into local resource planning, management and monitoring Need to address the special circumstances of women in rural areas Resource Ministry of Women to support the upscaling of gender programmes across the state
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Also linked with Outcome 10: Environmental assets and natural resources that are well protected and continually enhanced Goals and Targets Indicators 1994 baseline (or closest year) Current status 2010 (or nearest year) 2015 target Achievability Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) Total 358 930 (1994) Per capita Per $1 GDP 8.86 (1994) 1.29 (1994) Total 433 527 (2007) Per capita Per $1 GDP 8.82 (2007) 0.98 (2007) 34 Possible
Conclusion Goal 7 Need to use the Climate change challenge as an opportunity to leverage job creation and local industrial development IRP process near conclusion Public consultation complete Share of renewables increased as a result COP17 opportunity However must not ignore our coal base rather develop clean technologies such as carbon capture
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Also linked with Outcome 6 and 11; efficient and competitive infrastructure network and Create a better South Africa and contribute to a better and safer Africa and world Key target: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system (includes commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction both nationally and internationally) Indicators 1994 baseline (or closest year) Current status 2010 (or nearest year) 2015 target Achievability Gross domestic product per capita (current prices) 22,758 (2001) 49,134 Income growth Inflation Likely Percentage investment share in GDP 15.1 (2001) 19.3 25 Likely Labour productivity 100.0 (2003) 111.6 (2008) Labour productivity > Inflation Possible Gross saving as percentage of gross disposable income (GDI) 15.9 (2001) 15.8 >0 Likely Inflation rate (CPI) 5.8 (2001) 7.1 3-6 Possible
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development (contd) Indicators 1994 baseline (or closest year) Current status 2010 (or nearest year) 2015 target Achievability Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as percentage of GDP 0.6 (2002) 0.9 (2007) 1.5% by 2014 Possible Foreign direct investment net inflows and net outflows as percentage of GDP 8.4 (2001) 1.4 >0 Possible Share of imports from developing countries (DC) and least developed countries (LDC) 1.0 (LDC) 32.1(DC) 4.3 (LDC) 46.9 (DC) No target Not applicable
Siyabonga