UPCEA Central Regional Conference October 22,2013 Denver, Colorado Presentation by: David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) May You Live In Interesting Times Proverb or Curse?
The Context: These Interesting Times Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
The Context: These Interesting Times Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group U.S. & Leading OECD Countries, 2012 70 65.7 60 50 40 30 52.2 29.1 58.6 51.5 46.0 32.0 57.3 59.0 49.6 44.5 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 49.9 45.0 31.9 26.4 49.2 46.0 32.4 24.9 47.9 45.1 37.2 32.6 47.2 45.0 37.5 33.0 46.9 42.5 37.8 34.6 45.0 43.5 34.7 29.9 44.5 49.8 44.9 46.5 44.0 45.5 41.0 41.8 20 13.5 10 0 4 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2014 (for 2012); U.S. Census Bureau
Comparing [State] with Nations and Other States in the Percentage of Young Adult Degree Attainment (Ages 25-34) U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.7) Massachusetts 60 58 56 54 Japan Canada Minnesota 52 Iowa, New York 50 Luxembourg Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey Ireland North Dakota 48 United Kingdom Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut New Zealand, Australia Maryland, Pennsylvania 46 Norway Wisconsin 44 Israel, UNITED STATES Washington, Rhode Island, Vermont Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France Delaware 42 Kansas, Utah, South Dakota Poland, Switzerland Missouri, Ohio, Hawaii, California, Montana 40 Denmark, Estonia, Finland Oregon, North Carolina Spain Michigan, Maine, Indiana, Florida 38 Iceland South Carolina Slovenia, Greece Idaho, Georgia 36 Tennessee, Alabama, Arizona Wyoming, Texas, Kentucky, Oklahoma 34 Mississippi, West Virginia New Mexico, Louisiana 32 Alaska, Arkansas Nevada 30 Hungary Germany 28 Portugal, Czech Republic Slovakia 26 24 Mexico Austria 22 Chile, Italy Turkey 20 Source: 2014 OECD Education at a Glance (for year 2012); 2012 American Community Survey
Difference in College Attainment between Young Adults (25-34) and Older Adults (45-64), 2011 12 10 11.1 9.7 9.3 9.2 8.9 8.4 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 7.2 7.2 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2-0.3-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.1-1.3-1.7-1.8-2.4-2.4-3.6 Iowa North Dakota South Dakota Pennsylvania New York Minnesota Illinois Massachusetts Missouri West Virginia Indiana Ohio Kentucky Louisiana Wisconsin Nebraska Virginia New Jersey Kansas Arkansas Montana Tennessee Alabama Nation Michigan Mississippi North Carolina Vermont Maryland South Carolina Wyoming Georgia Delaware Florida Oklahoma Connecticut Utah New Hampshire Maine Rhode Island Texas Oregon California Washington Colorado Idaho Arizona Alaska Hawaii Nevada New Mexico -5.2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey
The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2010) 55 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income High College Attainment, High Personal Income Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2009) 48 41 34 27 ND HI NE OR IA KS UT MT ME SD DE NC WI US PA GA FL SC AZ MI OH ID NM MO IN TX AL TN OK KY NV MS LA AR WV CO MN NH VA RI WA IL CA AK MA CT NY MD NJ WY State New Economy Index 2010 Top Tier Middle Tier Bottom Tier Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 20 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 Personal Income per Capita (2010) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Kauffman Foundation
The Context: These Interesting Times Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans) (2008-10) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 35.1 34.5 33.7 32.1 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 24.0 23.2 23.1 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.0 19.5 19.3 16.9 16.8 16.3 15.7 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.8 13.5 13.4 13.0 12.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 5 0 Colorado Nebraska California Connecticut Minnesota Rhode Island New Jersey Illinois New York South Dakota Massachusetts Iowa Utah Idaho Wisconsin Kansas Washington Arizona Texas Oregon New Mexico Nation Pennsylvania Delaware Virginia North Carolina Maryland Hawaii Alaska Nevada North Dakota South Carolina Michigan Montana Wyoming Louisiana Mississippi Georgia Indiana Ohio New Hampshire Oklahoma Alabama Missouri Arkansas Tennessee Florida Kentucky Maine West Virginia Vermont Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey
Composition of Public Higher School Graduates By Race/Ethnicity 2008-09 (Actual) and 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected)
Composition of Public Higher School Graduates By Race/Ethnicity 2008-09 (Actual) and 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected)
The Context: These Interesting Times Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
Public FTE Enrollment and Education Appropriation per FTE, U.S., 1988-2013
Educational Appropriations per FTE Percent Change by State, Fiscal 2008-2013
Total Educational Revenue per FTE Percent Change by State, Fiscal 2007-2012
The Context: These Interesting Times Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
National Student Clearinghouse Information on Student Completion in Six Years Completed US Not Enrolled or Completed US Public 61% 23% Universities Private Colleges 72% 19% & Universities Community 37% 44% Colleges
Completion rates for first-time students compared to non-firsttime students ACE/Inside Track/NASPA/NSC - 2014 Institution Type First-time students Non-first-time 4 Yr Public 60% 44% 4 Yr Private 72% 53% 4 Yr Private For-profit 43% 37% 2 Yr Public 36% 27% 2 Yr Private 54% 48% 2 Yr Private For-profit 62% 40%
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Total: Public Colleges & Universities 1.84/$100,000 = $54,348/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Public Bachelor s & Master s Colleges & Universities 2.20/$100,000 = $45,455/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Public Research Universities 1.82/$100,000 = $54,945/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Public Two-Year Institutions 1.58/$100,000 = $63,291/Degree
In Sum: These Interesting Times We re Competitive but... Our Demographics, they are a changing the Past is not Prologue There is a New Normal for Higher Education Finances We have real issues with respect to Productivity
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times Six Current Thrusts of the Change Agenda Policy & Practice The completion agenda Expanding the concept of student Student Learning Outcomes Competence as the new coin of the realm Innovation & disruption The new normal for funding
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times The Completion Agenda Access to Success The President s Challenge First in the World Again Meet our Workforce Needs 65% of Young Adults some postsecondary credential of value 2020 Lumina 60% by 2025 Complete College America -- 33 States Angst Do we really need to get there? Can we get there from here? Will quality suffer? Implications for UPCEA Need to address the telling NSC data
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times Expanding the Concept of student Looking down Early college high schools (the Gates redesign) College/Postsecondary in all high schools (AP, dual & concurrent enrolment, IB, CTE) Improving Preparation Common Core Reinventing Remedial The High School as partner Looking up Adult College Completion low hanging fruit New to Postsecondary Adult Focus A mighty heavy lift Workforce & Workplace partnerships Redefining college The course level movement piece by piece Demonstrated competence (more to come) Implications for UPCEA Workplace opportunities
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times Student Learning the new name of the game A good idea whose time has come Why now Readiness has evolved Evidence based practice has caught on in public policy Analytics can support evidence based practice (CLA, CAAP, ETS Proficiency Profile, AHELO, Work-keys, PLA, etc.) Being Supported financially Lumina s DQP & Tuning work Angst Whopping big change moving to external validity Still sorting out Teacher s role Institution s role Governing board s role Government s role Implications for UPCEA
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times Competence the new coin of the realm Competency Assessment for the Student s Sake Transfer and Articulation Trusting the community (Passport) Demonstrated college level learning outside the Academy Prior Leaning Assessment PLA CLEP, testing out, etc. Competency Assessment for Institution s Sake (Educational Improvement & Credibility) Predictive Analytics Degree Qualifications Profiles Tuning Implications for UPCEA Get into the discussions on campus
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times Innovation & Disruption are good (everything else is boring) The list (partially) New providers of degrees The expansion of the for-profit sector The expansion of most institutions on-line The $10,000 Degree in Public Institutions WGU expansion into multi-state recognition New providers of courses & services MOOCS Courses only Straighter Line, DreamDegree, etc. Support services only Insidetrack, Kahn Academy, Smarthinking, etc. Marketing or Consumer Information Implications for UPCEA
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times The New Normal for Funding Why a new normal & not return to the old normal Can t afford the old normal Hyper-inflationary model is unsustainable (unaffordable) Shouldn t afford the old normal What the new normal will look like Performance funding is the wave to be on Makes sense at the state level
Outcomes-Based Funding: The Wave of Implementation WA ME CA OR NV ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY MD VT NJ NH MA D E CT RI NC AZ NM OK AR TN SC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL Implementing Implementing in one Sector Under Development Active Interest HI
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times The New Normal for Funding Why a new normal & not return to the old normal Can t afford the old normal Hyper-inflationary model is unsustainable (unaffordable) Shouldn t afford the old normal What the new normal will look like Performance funding is the wave to be on Makes sense at the state level Seeping into institutional finance RCM
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times The New Normal for Funding What the new normal will look line Performance funding isn t the only new dog in the hunt Expenditure strategies The cheap way out -- $10,000 degree Outsourcing WGU expansion Coursework outsourced Enrolment Management Revenue enhancement strategies Chase rich students Chase any students Rethink tuition discounting & financial aid Implications for UPCEA ready adult is a quick way to
The Change Agenda: These Interesting Times Summing it all up The times they are a changing The way we provide education is changing Who we educate is changing The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing The way we finance the enterprise is changing So, To Survive & Thrive Be Aware Be nimble Be ready to change, And be comfortable being disrupted
May You Live in Interesting Times Perhaps not a Proverb Certainly Not A Curse Definitely a Challenge But also an Opportunity It Is What It Is Make the Most of It