Richardton Taylor PSD #34 Planning for the Future: Status of Enrollment March 2016 1
Planning Founded in 2003 Professional educational planning firm Expertise in multiple disciplines Over 20 years of planning experience Over 80 years of education experience Over 20 years of GIS experience Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota Robert Schwarz CEO, AICP, REFP, CEFP Educators Diane DeBacker, Ed.D. Education Planner Clay Guthmiller Education Planner Jay Harris Education Planner David Stoakes Education Planner, Ed.D. Susan Swift Education Planner, Ph.D. GIS Analysts Brandon Sylvester GIS Analyst Tyler Link GIS Analyst 2 Projection accuracy of 97% or greater
RSP & Associates - Clients KANSAS MISSOURI ILLINOIS NORTH DAKOTA Baldwin City Lawrence Columbia Pattonville R-111 Glenview 34 Alexander Bonner Springs Liberal Diamond R-IV Platte County R-111 lndlan Prairie 204 Bismarck Derby Maize Fort Osage R-1 Raymore-Peculiar R-11 Naperville 203 Fargo De Soto Ottawa Harrisonville R-IX Raytown C-2 Oswego 308 Mandan McKenzie County Eudora Piper-Kansas City Jennings Rockwood Rockford 205 Minot Garden City Shawnee Heights Kearney R-1 Troy R-111 Yorkvllle 115 New Public Schools #8 Gardner-Edgerton Shawnee Mission Ladue University City Rugby Hutchinson Spring Hill North Kansas City Wright City R-11-----,..----.-...--,--...,...-.,...wes;;,t;..;F..;a;;.r;..,i o-..,..._...---, Kansas City Turner- Kansas City Wichita ADM Ames Ankeny Bettendorf Cedar Falls Cedar Rapids Clear Creek-Amana Council Bluffs Dallas Center Grimes Fort Dodge Gladbrook-Reinbeck Iowa City Johnston Linn-Mar Newton North Polk North Scott Rock Valley Sergeant Bluff-Luton Southeast Polk Urbandale Waukee West Des Moines NEBRASKA Bellevue Millard Westside ARKANSAS North Little Rock Minnesota Duluth 3 RSP Map Created: 10/7/2014 -C:::m.E:::m----====::::::i----Miles 0 37.5 75 150 225 300
Discussion Points Enrollment and Demographics Discussion (Part 1) Past Enrollment Demographic Data Development Discussion Enrollment Projections Discussion (Part 2) Projection Modeling Issues and Assumptions Projections Next Steps (Part 3) 4
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Richardton Taylor PSD 34 Administration County, City & Others Stark County City of Richardton City of Taylor Census Bureau/ESRI 6
Enrollment has been increasing but is projected to stabilize with some slight increases beyond 2018/19. o Elementary Enrollment forecasted to decrease (nearly 20 students by 2020/21) o Secondary enrollment forecasted to increase (over 30 students by 2020/21) Residential development activity will be slower than it has been the last few years within the District. o Slowdown in oil production could influence some households waiting out the downturn, others are likely leaving for other economic opportunities impacting the attractiveness for developers to build new residential homes Recent local economic development initiatives and geographic proximity to Dickinson (rail terminal, transload and frac sand facilities, ethanol plan etc.) may result in a slightly expedited rebound compared to other smaller communities 7
8 District Map District Boundary (purple line) City Limits (solid shading) Major Streets Major water features
Planning Areas By Land Use (Residential, Commercial, Industrial) By Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks) By Residential Density (Single-Family, Mobile Home, Duplex, By Manmade Features (Railroad and Streets) Apartment) By Attendance Area 9
10 Planning Areas Detailed Zoomed into both communities Displays the power of GIS data and information See where students are located Student location associated to each planning area
Enrollment By Grade Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2011/12 19 20 24 19 26 20 16 23 18 22 23 21 17 268 2012/13 27 19 24 20 17 22 20 18 24 18 24 24 20 277 2013/14 19 31 18 26 23 20 23 22 19 25 17 21 25 289 2014/15 17 27 31 19 24 24 23 28 19 23 27 16 21 299 2015/16 24 19 28 31 20 22 30 23 33 18 23 24 20 315 Source: Richardton-Taylor Public School District #34 2011/12 to 2015/16. Pig in the Snake Effect: Largest class in 2015/16 8 th grade (33) Smallest class in 2015/16 9 th grade (18) Graduating senior class in 2015/16 was slightly smaller than incoming this is a likely trend that could diminish with a continued and projected slowdown in drilling activity 11 Enrollment provided by the district. Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School.
Change By Grade from Previous Year From To K K 1st 1st 2nd 2nd 3rd 3rd 4th 4th 5th 2011/12 2012/13 8 0 4-4 -2-4 0 2 1 0 2 1-1 2012/13 2013/14-8 4-1 2 3 3 1 2 1 1-1 -3 1 2013/14 2015/16-2 8 0 1-2 1 3 5-3 4 2-1 0 2015/16 2016/17 7 2 1 0 1-2 6 0 5-1 0-3 4 3-Yr Avg -1.0 4.7 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 3.3 2.3 1.0 1.3 0.3-2.3 1.7 3 Yr Wavg 1.5 4.3 0.3 0.7 0.3-0.2 4.2 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.5-2.3 2.2 Source: Richardton-Taylor Public School District #34 2011/12 to 2015/16. 5th 6th 6th 7th 7th 8th 8th 9th 9th 10th 10th 11th 11th 12th Breaking the Table Down Change varies by grade Largest average class increase Kdg to 1 st grade (+4.7) Largest average class decrease 10 th to 11 th grade (-2.3) Most of the grade to grade change show a slight gain from one year to the next 12 Enrollment provided by the district. Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School.
Natural Change Model YR K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2016/17 24 24 19 28 31 20 22 30 23 33 18 23 24 319 2017/18 24 24 24 19 28 31 20 22 30 23 33 18 23 319 2018/19 24 24 24 24 19 28 31 20 22 30 23 33 18 320 2019/20 24 24 24 24 24 19 28 31 20 22 30 23 33 326 2020/21 24 24 24 24 24 24 19 28 31 20 22 30 23 317 Table Explanation: If no external change existed, and assuming the same Kindergarten number from 2015/16, the cohorts would simply matriculate through unchanged from year to year This would result in essentially a stagnant/stable enrollment in 5 years Why? Outgoing cohorts are being replaced with cohorts of generally the same size 13 Enrollment provided by the district. Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School.
Student In-Migration 2015/16 students who are in 1st through 12 th grade that were not attending the District in 2014/15 as Kindergarten through 11 th grade Who is new to the District that was not attending in previous years? Is it related to changes in the community? 46 students were new in 2015/16 Student location associated to each planning area 14
Student Out-Migration Students attending the District in 2014/15 who were in Kindergarten through 11 th grade that did not attend in 2015/16 as 1st through 12 th graders Who was in the District that is not attending now? Is it related to perceptions of a school building? Is it related to changes in the community? -31 students left the district +15 District 15
Student Heat Density Red areas depict highest, gray as lowest student density Overlapping points (2 or more students) are handled using a weighting of coincident points Illustrates by student address where there is the greatest clustering of students This type of analysis can help with understanding student population and geographic proximity to schools 16
Future development in the District prospect : Residential or Nonresidential : likely residential Total new units projected to be minimal the next few years The slowdown in drilling over the last couple of years and the recent down turn in oil price per barrel, will likely result in less new activity occurring within the District Transiency of families/workers leaving the community potential is higher if good paying employment opportunities decrease The respective jurisdictions couldn t provide concrete data but suggested that permits issued have decreased dramatically over the last few years. Richardton issued 3 permits in 2015. 17
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RSP analyzed several growth models including cohort survival method, housing unit projection modeling and various linear regression models. Due to the lack of building permit data as well as the limited student enrollment size, preference was give to the regression modeling. The modeling results in low, mid, and high level projections for the years 2016/17 2020/21. RSP recommends using the mid-point projections for analysis purposes. Because of limited data, the models are largely based on historical enrollment for the District. The data is statistically analyzed to provide an likely enrollment forecast that takes into account economic variables that could influence the type of household moving into the District. The District will be able to use RSP s reports and maps to better understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of improvement projects. 19
As of March 10, Oil was at $34/barrel Production analysts anticipate oil will drop again to around $30/barrel sometime in the foreseeable future due to record high storage Some companies halting plans for new wells; Hess Corp announced plans to drill 80 new wells So, how long will the low prices last? Will people commit to stay until prices turn around? Analysts believe production levels will return once oil hits $40/barrel. New production will likely begin around $55/barrel 20
Enrollment Projections 400 Enrollment Growth Scenarios 375 350 Student Enrollment 325 300 275 250 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 High 268 277 289 299 315 336 339 353 359 357 Mid 268 277 289 299 315 317 312 320 330 328 Low 268 277 289 299 315 303 298 295 300 304 School Year High Mid Low Source: Richardton Taylor Public Schools & RSP Projection Modeling RSP recommends planning with the Mid-projection 21 The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School
2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 RSP Recommended Projection 400 K-6 7-12 Proj K-6 Proj 7-12 District 350 300 289 268 277 299 315 317 312 320 330 328 250 200 124 128 129 134 141 153 155 172 173 152 150 100 149 160 165 174 144 164 160 165 158 155 50 0 Source: Richardton Taylor Schools and RSP Projection Modeling 22 Elementary enrollment expected to decrease over the next five years Secondary enrollment expected to increase over the next five years The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School
1. Future Kindergarten round up will indicate if the incoming KDG class will be closer to 15 students or 25 students projections indicate likely closer to 20 students 2. The number of new residential activity will drive the potential for future households moving into the District 3. The price for a barrel of oil will drive the economic opportunities that can occur in and around the District 23
Part 3: Next Steps 24
Next Steps District administration and the Board of Education further study the projected enrollment and development information presented compare that to the capacity of the existing facilities to better know the timing for new facilities and/or additions to existing facilities Monitor development opportunities, kindergarten round up, and economic data to assist in knowing how those variables will influence the RSP projections Continue to make decisions and communicate that information to the community so they can understand how educational opportunities will support 21 st Century Learning for College and Career Readiness 25
26 NOTES