Applied Demography in the 21st Century

Applied Demography in the 21st Century

Steve H. Murdock David A. Swanson Editors Applied Demography in the 21st Century Selected Papers from the Biennial Conference on Applied Demography, San Antonio, Texas, January 7 9, 2007

Steve H. Murdock Rice University Houston, TX USA David A. Swanson University of California Riverside, CA USA ISBN-13: 978-1-4020-8328-0 e-isbn-13: 978-1-4020-8329-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008924792 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, B.V. No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper 987654321 springer.com

Conference and Edited Volume Preparation Sponsored by The Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at The University of Texas at San Antonio

Acknowledgements xiii INTRODUCTION Chapter 1: Applied Demography at the Beginning of the 21st Century 3 Steve H. Murdock and David A. Swanson SECTION I: DATA USE AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES Chapter 2: Measuring Population Change Using the American Community Survey 13 Howard Hogan Introduction 13 Population and Housing Estimates Program 14 The American Community Survey s Design 20 ACS Reference Period 21 Measurement Issues 24 Important Avenues for Research on the ACS and the Population Estimates Program 27 Summary 30 Chapter 3: Using the 2005 American Community Survey 31 Patricia C. Becker Using ACS Data 31 Looking to the Future 34 Conclusion 35 Chapter 4: Address Coverage Improvement and Evaluation Program 2005 National Estimate of Coverage of the Master Address File 37 Susan Perrone Background 38 vii

viii Methodology 41 Limitations 48 Results 52 Additional Research 59 Conclusions 67 Appendix A 70 Appendix B 76 Appendix C 78 Appendix D 79 Appendix E 83 SECTION II: POPULATION ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS Chapter 5: Using Assessor Parcel Data to Maintain Housing Unit Counts for Small Area Population Estimates 89 Beth Jarosz Background and Introduction 89 Methodology for Improving the Housing Unit Estimates 92 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Parcel Data 95 Next Steps 96 Appendix A: Detailed Methodology for Maintaining Parcel Housing Estimates 98 Appendix B: Reported Housing Unit Counts by Jurisdiction (2000, 2004, and 2006) 100 Chapter 6: Aging and Elder Abuse: Projections for Michigan 103 Lori Post, Charles Salmon, Artem Prokhorov, James Oehmke and Sarah Swierenga Introduction 103 Method 104 Results Discussion 107 110 Limitations and Suggestions for Future Research 111 Chapter 7: Methods for Measuring the Population after a Disaster: Household Population Surveys in Post-Katrina New Orleans, October 2005 October 2006 113 Gregory Stone Introduction 113 Context 114 Methods 114 Results 117 Discussion 120 Conclusion 121

ix Chapter 8: An Evaluation of Population Estimates for Counties and Places in Texas for 2000 125 Nazrul Hoque Introduction 125 Evaluation of Texas County and Place Estimates for 2000 132 Conclusion 146 Chapter 9: Using Demographic Estimates and Projections to Improve Statistical Forecasting 149 Don R. Warren Introduction 149 Distinction between Projections and Forecasts 150 A One-Way Disconnection between Statisticians and Demographers 151 An Example of a Longer-Term Applied Forecasting Project 152 The Typical Applied Forecasting Setting 153 Demographic Complements to Forecasted Data Series 154 An Over-Extended ARIMA Model 154 A Demographically Assisted ARIMAX Alternative 159 Conclusions 161 Chapter 10: Measuring Uncertainty in Population Data Generated by the Cohort-Component Method: A Report on Research in Progress 165 David A. Swanson Introduction 165 Mean Square Error Confidence Intervals 168 Data 169 Methods 171 Results 176 Discussion 180 Appendix 184 SECTION III: APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY AND HEALTH Chapter 11: Tuberculosis and Perception of Risk: A Comparison of Native Born and Foreign Born Persons in the United States 193 Mary Bollinger Introduction 193 Global Patterns of Migration 193 World Health and Tuberculosis 196 Theoretical Framework 200 Methods 202 Results 204 Discussion 207

x Chapter 12: Causes of Fire Deaths and Injuries in Anchorage, Alaska: Policy Implications 213 Donna Shai Introduction Background 213 214 Methods 215 Results 215 Causes 216 Policy Implications 217 Conclusion 220 Chapter 13: Dispersion of Registered Death Causes as a Function of Age in the 1999 U.S. Population 223 Bo G. Eriksson Introduction 223 Methodological Considerations 224 Data 225 Results 226 Discussion 228 Conclusion 230 Appendix 1 230 SECTION IV: THE BREADTH OF APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY Chapter 14: A Comparison of Potential Demographic Influences on Church Membership of Two United Methodist Congregations in San Antonio, Texas 237 Michael E. Cline Introduction 237 Case Study Congregations 237 Methodology 238 Findings 241 Conclusion 247 Chapter 15: Linking Tax-Lot and Student Record Data: Applications in School Planning 251 D. Richard Lycan Introduction Most School Districts Track Housing Development 251 252 Related Research 252 Using Linked Student Record and Tax-Lot Data About Assessors Tax-Lot Files 253 257 About Student Record Data 260

xi Linking the Tax-Lot and Student Record Data 261 Conclusions 267 Chapter 16: Demography and Turnover 271 Giuseppe De Bartolo and Manuela Stranges Introduction 271 Demography and Management of Workforce 273 The Demographic Factors That Affect Turnover 273 Some Turnover Measures 277 Conclusions 281 Chapter 17: Household Consumption in China: An Examination of the Utility of Urban-Rural Segmentation 285 Farhat Yusuf, Gordon Brooks and Ping Zhao Introduction 285 Literature Review Data 286 287 Findings 289 Discussion and Conclusion 295 Chapter 18: How Chinese Children Spend Their Time 299 Hongwei Xu and Elisabeta Minca Introduction 299 Children s Time Use Factors That Affect Children s Time Use 301 305 Data and Methods 309 Descriptive Results 312 Family and Children s Characteristics and Time Use 319 Family and Children s Characteristics and Participation in Activities 320 Family and Children s Characteristics and Time Spent in Activities 325 Discussion and Policy Implications 325 SECTION V: EDUCATING THE APPLIED DEMOGRAPHER Chapter 19: Introducing Survey Methods to Professional Students in Applied Demography 337 David W. Smith and Stephanie L. McFall Introduction 337 Environment and Background 338 Course Design 339 The Analysis Workshop 341 Case Study: Prostate Cancer Screening 342 Three Years Experience 343

xii Lessons Learned and Future Plans 344 Chapter 20: The Academic Training of Applied Demographers: History, Evolution, and a Description of the First Ph.D. Program in Applied Demography 347 Steve H. Murdock and Mary Zey Introduction 347 Rationale for a Ph.D. in Applied Demography 348 The Necessary Skills of Applied Demography 349 A Description of the First Ph.D. Program in Applied Demography 351 The Process for Admission and the Characteristics of the First Students Admitted to the Program 353 Summary and Conclusions 353 Appendix A: Coursework and Other Degree Requirements for the Ph.D. in Applied Demography, Department of Demography and Organization Studies, The University of Texas at San Antonio 354 CONCLUSIONS Chapter 21: Applied Demography in the 21st Century 361 Steve H. Murdock and David A. Swanson The Current State of Applied Demography 361 Opportunities and Challenges for Applied Demography in the 21st Century 364 Index 369

Acknowledgements This work is a product of efforts by numerous people. As editors of the volume and Local Arrangements Chair and Program Chair for the conference, respectively, and co-editors of this volume, we wish to express our appreciation to a number of organizations and persons who made this work possible. We sincerely appreciate the support of the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at The University of Texas at San Antonio which both sponsored the conference on applied demography and provided financial support for the development of this document. Similarly, the Department of Demography and Organization Studies at The University of Texas at San Antonio, chaired by Mary Zey, provided support for numerous students who appeared among the presenters and authors in this volume and was instrumental in the completion of the conference and this volume. We wish to also thank all those who agreed to organize or chair sessions and who otherwise participated in the conference and thank those scholars throughout the disciplines of applied demography and demography who provided peer reviews and comments for authors in regard to the chapters in this volume. We especially appreciate the efforts of David Donovan who coordinated the conference and worked tirelessly with authors to obtain the manuscripts for this volume and the work of Patricia Bramwell and Charla Wright-Adkins who assisted with the conference and the creation of this volume. We particularly appreciate the efforts of several others who worked tirelessly in the finalization of this document, including Sheila Dos Santos-Dierking who helped in numerous phases of the volume s completion and XuihongYou whose expertise was essential to the completion of the final drafts of this document. We owe special appreciation to Karen White who served as the technical editor for the volume and spent countless hours ensuring not only that the contributions were grammatically correct and consistent but equally important improving the quality of the text in many chapters. Without her efforts this volume would simply not have been completed. Finally, we wish to express our appreciation to our editor at Springer, Evelien Bakker who not only saw the value of such a volume but patiently endured as we worked with individual authors and our own schedules to complete the volume. We appreciate her support for this volume and for us. xiii