Transinfo www.transinfo.co.uk PISA 2015 - Northern Ireland Programme for International Student Assessment Northern Ireland 2017
All figures used in this publication are taken from PISA assessments and used to produce visual representations for the three disciplines of science, reading and mathematics from the perspective of Northern Ireland. It is not the intention to repoduce findings that are published elsewhere rather than juxtapose and present information in such a way that additional thinking is brought to PISA outcomes. The reader is asked to reach beyond a 'league table' approach and to consider the health of education across Northern Ireland, whether that health differs across the disciplines and what are the longer term trends. Like all data, contradictions are exposed and 'disturbing realities' are uncovered. This is as it should be but the point, as is often the case, is how do we bring about necessary change? The official PISA 2015 report for NI can be accessed here: www.education-ni.gov.uk/publications/2015-northern-ireland-pisa-results Index 1.1 The Northern Ireland sample 2.1 Science 3.1 Reading 4.1 Mathematics 5.1 UK comparison 6.1 Progress of highest and lowest achievers 7.1 Inequality performance 8.1 Gender differences 9.1 Socio-economic status 9.2 Resilience in science 10.1 10.2 Sectoral differences Additional countries results Notes 1. According to PISA, 30 points in an assessment equates to one year of schooling. 2. PISA assessments are carried out every three years, 2015 being the most recent with data reports being released in December 2016. 3. Computer-based assessments were used in 2012 for the first time, replacing paper-based assessments. PISA acknowldges this has negatively impacted on the performance of girls and individual boys. 1.1 The Northern Ireland sample The following table is derived from Table 7.1 of the NI PISA report (see link above) and suggests that 2,376 students and 92 schools participated from Grammar and non-selective sectors. Sample sizes for Grammar and non-selective schools Non-selective Grammar Total Management type Pupils Schools Average Pupils Schools Average Pupils Schools Average Controlled 356 15 23.7 192 7 27.4 548 22 24.9 Catholic maintained 738 29 25.4 0 0 738 29 25.4 Voluntary 0 0 872 32 27.3 872 32 27.3 Other 218 9 24.2 0 0 218 9 24.2 Total 1312 53 24.8 1064 39 27.3 2376 92 25.8 On page 234 of the report, under the heading 'Response rates in PISA 2015' it is stated that "A total of 95 schools and 2,401 pupils completed the PISA study in Northern Ireland." This means that 25 pupils from 3 independent schools also participated. www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 2
2.1 Science Science Reading Mathematics The average score for Northern Ireland in Science is 500. According to PISA outcomes, students in Singapore exhibit two more years of schooling (60 points) than NI students. 300 325 350 375 400 425 475 500 525 550 575 556 535 564 538 516 532 534 519 520 532 497 542 531 526 511 529 509 544 528 527 516 525 487 495 523 527 548 518 494 531 516 517 524 513 509 495 513 505 510 512 500 493 510 503 494 509 498 492 509 509 506 509 503 512 506 492 521 503 521 504 502 499 507 502 500 511 501 506 504 501 498 492 500 497 493 498 513 502 497 493 491 496 497 470 495 485 497 495 499 493 493 500 494 493 493 490 493 487 492 493 496 486 490 488 482 487 495 494 485 477 478 483 481 486 481 485 490 Singapore Japan Estonia Chinese Taipei Finland Macao (China) Canada Vietnam Hong Kong B-S-J-G (China) Korea New Zealand Slovenia England Australia United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Switzerland Ireland Belgium Denmark Poland Portugal N Ireland Norway Scotland United States Austria France Sweden OECD average Czech Republic Spain Latvia Russia Wales Luxembourg Italy 300 325 350 375 400 425 475 500 525 550 575 www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 3
3.1 Reading Science Reading Mathematics The average score in reading for NI is 497. This performance is very similar to that of England (500) and Scotland (493). 300 325 350 375 400 425 475 500 525 550 575 556 535 564 528 527 516 523 527 548 531 526 511 503 521 504 534 519 520 516 517 524 538 516 532 498 513 502 529 509 544 513 509 495 509 509 506 501 506 504 513 505 510 510 503 494 509 503 512 512 500 493 502 500 511 493 500 494 502 499 507 495 499 493 509 498 492 501 498 492 532 497 542 500 497 493 496 497 470 493 496 486 487 495 494 518 494 531 497 493 491 493 493 490 506 492 521 490 488 482 525 487 495 493 487 492 495 485 497 481 485 490 483 481 486 485 477 478 Singapore Canada Hong Kong Finland Ireland Estonia Korea Japan Norway Macao (China) New Zealand Germany Poland Slovenia Australia Netherlands England Denmark Sweden Belgium France United Kingdom Portugal Chinese Taipei N Ireland United States Spain Russia B-S-J-G (China) Scotland OECD average Switzerland Latvia Vietnam Czech Republic Austria Italy Luxembourg Wales 300 325 350 375 400 425 475 500 525 550 575 www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 4
4.1 Mathematics Science Reading Mathematics The average score in mathematics for NI and England is 493. Singapore dominates again with an average interpreted as being over two years of additional schooling. 300 325 350 375 400 425 475 500 525 550 575 556 535 564 523 527 548 529 509 544 532 497 542 538 516 532 518 494 531 516 517 524 506 492 521 534 519 520 528 527 516 509 503 512 531 526 511 502 500 511 513 505 510 502 499 507 509 509 506 503 521 504 501 506 504 498 513 502 495 485 497 513 509 495 525 487 495 510 503 494 493 500 494 487 495 494 512 500 493 495 499 493 500 497 493 509 498 492 501 498 492 493 487 492 497 493 491 493 493 490 481 485 490 493 496 486 483 481 486 490 488 482 485 477 478 496 497 470 Singapore Hong Kong Macao (China) Chinese Taipei Japan B-S-J-G (China) Korea Switzerland Estonia Canada Netherlands Finland Denmark Slovenia Belgium Germany Ireland Poland Norway Austria New Zealand Vietnam Australia Sweden Russia England France N Ireland United Kingdom Portugal Czech Republic Scotland OECD average Italy Spain Luxembourg Latvia Wales United States 300 325 350 375 400 425 475 500 525 550 575 www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 5
5.1 UK comparison Science 540 525 510 495 480 465 Reading 540 2000 2003 Across the three disciplines, all four 'UK nations' have declined since PISA was carried out in 2000. If the earlier assessment scores are accurate, this would suggest for instance that the average for mathematics in NI has fallen by almost one year of additional schooling over the period 2000 to 2006. Since 2006 the average has remained at just under 495. Note that Wales only began to engage with PISA in 2003 - the same year that the results for England were deemed not reliable. 525 510 495 480 465 2000 2003 Mathematics 540 525 510 495 480 465 2000 2003 Wales England Scotland N Ireland OECD Average www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 6
6.1 Progress of highest and lowest achievers The 10th and 90th percentile are benchmark proxies for lower and higher achievers respectively. This translates into measuring how the bottom 10% and top 10% of achievers perform. Across the three disciplines there has been a steady decline of performance amongst the highest achievers in NI, narrowing the gap with the OECD average. Throughout the same period there has been a general increase of performance amongst the lowest achievers, surpassing the OECD average at the 10th percentile. International comparisons of NI student achievement suggests that lower achievers are performing better with their international peers than higher achievers. This finding contradicts the common perception that top pupils perform better in NI and amongst lower achievers there is a long tail of underachievement. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is defined as inequality. Science 90th percentile 10th percentile 650 395 635 380 620 605 365 590 350 Reading 90th percentile 10th percentile 395 650 635 380 620 605 365 590 350 Mathematics 90th percentile 10th percentile 650 395 635 380 620 605 365 590 350 2012 saw the introduction of computer based testing hence the dashed line. N Ireland OECD Average www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 7
7.1 Inequality performance The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile is defined as inequality. N Ireland OECD Average Science Reading Mathematics 300 280 260 240 220 200 300 280 260 240 220 200 300 280 260 240 220 200 The fall in performance in higher achieving students and the improvement for lower achieving students means that the spread of inequality has narrowed for each discipline. For instance in science in 2015 about 240 points separates the top and bottom 10 percentiles compared to over 290 nine years earlier. In each discipline the level of inequality has fallen below the average for OECD countries. The NI education system is a selective one and these outcomes suggests an appearance of less inequality than non-selective systems. However it can be asserted that the NI system is not catering for higher achieving students - a feature that is at odds with a main rationale for selection in the first instance. Science Pts Years Reading Pts Years Maths Pts Years New Zealand * 273 9.1 France * 293 9.8 China * 276 9.2 China * 271 9.0 China * 283 9.4 South Korea * 258 8.6 Singapore * 271 9.0 Luxembourg * 279 9.3 Belgium * 255 8.5 Sweden * 269 9.0 New Zealand * 274 9.1 France * 249 8.3 France * 268 8.9 Australia * 265 8.8 Portugal * 249 8.3 Australia * 267 8.9 Austria * 265 8.8 Austria * 247 8.2 Netherlands * 266 8.9 Belgium * 263 8.8 Singapore * 247 8.2 Belgium * 265 8.8 Czech Republic * 262 8.7 Switzerland * 247 8.2 England * 264 8.8 Netherlands * 262 8.7 England * 245 8.2 Luxembourg * 264 8.8 Sweden * 262 8.7 Luxembourg * 244 8.1 Germany * 260 8.7 United States * 259 8.6 Australia * 242 8.1 Switzerland * 259 8.6 Germany * 258 8.6 Italy * 241 8.0 United States * 258 8.6 Singapore * 257 8.6 New Zealand * 238 7.9 Austria * 256 8.5 Norway * 255 8.5 Netherlands * 237 7.9 Czech Republic 251 8.4 England * 254 8.5 Czech Republic * 235 7.8 Norway 251 8.4 Switzerland * 254 8.5 Sweden * 233 7.8 Finland 250 8.3 South Korea * 251 8.4 Hong Kong * 232 7.7 Slovenia 250 8.3 Italy * 244 8.1 Germany * 230 7.7 South Korea 248 8.3 Portugal * 240 8.0 United States * 230 7.7 Scotland 247 8.2 Finland * 239 8.0 Slovenia * 228 7.6 Japan 243 8.1 Slovenia * 239 8.0 Canada * 227 7.6 Portugal 241 8.0 Canada * 238 7.9 Japan * 227 7.6 Canada 240 8.0 Japan * 238 7.9 Poland * 226 7.5 Italy 240 8.0 Scotland 235 7.8 Spain 220 7.3 Northern Ireland 239 8.0 Poland 231 7.7 Norway * 219 7.3 Poland 235 7.8 Russia 227 7.6 Scotland 219 7.3 Wales 235 7.8 Estonia 226 7.5 Vietnam 215 7.2 Denmark 234 7.8 Denmark 225 7.5 Russia 214 7.1 Estonia 233 7.8 Spain 224 7.5 Finland 210 7.0 Republic of Ireland 231 7.7 Republic of Ireland 222 7.4 Denmark 209 7.0 Spain 231 7.7 Latvia 221 7.4 Estonia 209 7.0 Russia * 215 7.2 Hong Kong 220 7.3 Republic of Ireland 206 6.9 Latvia * 214 7.1 Northern Ireland 220 7.3 Macao 204 6.8 Macao * 210 7.0 Wales 219 7.3 Northern Ireland 204 6.8 Hong Kong * 209 7.0 Macao 212 7.1 Wales 201 6.7 Vietnam * 196 6.5 Vietnam * 187 6.2 Latvia 200 6.7 The adjacent tables shows international comparisons in inequality. Countries marked * have significant differences with NI. In Scotland therefore, the level of inequality is 247 points for science - a difference of 8.2 school years from the top 10% of achievers to the lowest 10%. www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 8
8.1 Gender differences 520 510 500 490 480 470 Read Girls Sci Boys Sci Girls Math Boys Math Girls Read Boys The difference in gender performance across the three disciplines in NI has coalesced over the four periods of assessment. In part this has been the result of intoducing computer-based assessment. The biggest gender gap is in reading with girls outperforming boys. Across science and mathematics boys slightly outperform boys in NI and most other countries. However girls outperform boys significantly in reading both NI and internationally. This would explain to some extent why girls outperform boys at GCSE almost entirely across the curriculum. Girls stronger Boys stronger Science Reading Mathematics Count r y Gap Count r y Gap Count r y Gap Austria 19 19 Wales -11-11 Austria 27 27 Italy 17 17 Ireland -12-12 Italy 20 20 Japan 14 14 Japan -13-13 Germany 17 17 Belgium 12 12 N Ireland -14-14 Ireland 16 16 Ireland 11 11 Belgium -16-16 Spain 16 16 Germany 10 10 Italy -16-16 Belgium 14 14 Portugal 10 10 China -16-16 Japan 14 14 China 9 9 Portugal -17-17 England 12 12 Czech Rep 9 9 United States -20-20 Switzerland 12 12 Luxembourg 8 8 Austria -20-20 Poland 11 11 United States 7 7 Singapore -20-20 Luxembourg 11 11 Spain 7 7 Spain -20-20 Portugal 10 10 Singapore 6 6 Germany -21-21 Wales 10 10 Poland 6 6 Scotland -21-21 Denmark 9 9 Switzerland 6 6 Luxembourg -21-21 Canada 9 9 Denmark 6 6 Denmark -22-22 New Zealand 9 9 Wales 5 5 England -23-23 United States 9 9 New Zealand 5 5 Netherlands -24-24 Czech Rep 7 7 Russia 4 4 Vietnam -25-25 Scotland 7 7 Netherlands 4 4 Switzerland -25-25 N Ireland 7 7 Estonia 3 3 Czech Rep -26-26 France 6 6 Norway 3 3 Russia -26-26 Russia 6 6 N Ireland 3 3 Canada -26-26 China 6 6 Australia 2 2 Estonia -28-28 Australia 6 6 France 2 2 Hong Kong -28-28 Estonia 5 5 Scotland 1 1 France -29-29 Slovenia 4 4 Canada 1 1 Poland -29-29 Netherlands 2 2 England 0 0 Macao -32-32 Hong Kong 2 2 Hong Kong -1-1 Australia -32-32 Singapore 0 0 Vietnam -3-3 New Zealand -32-32 Latvia -2-2 Sweden -5-5 Sweden -39-39 Sweden -2-2 Slovenia -6-6 Norway -40-40 Norway -2-2 Macao -8-8 South Korea -41-41 Vietnam -3-3 South Korea -10-10 Latvia -42-42 South Korea -7-7 Latvia -11-11 Slovenia -43-43 Finland -8-8 Finland -19-19 Finland -47-47 Macao -8-8 www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 9
9.1 Socio-economic status Science Reading Mathematics 550 550 550 525 500 475 Poorest 25% Second Quartile Third Quartile Richest 25% 525 500 475 Poorest 25% Second Quartile Third Richest Quartile 25% Across the three disciplines NI students from the most advantaged 25 per cent of families score significantly higher than the other three NI groups. There is 70-80 points differnce (up to two and two thirds years of schooling) between students from the richest backgrounds compared to pupils from the most disadvantaged backgrounds. 525 500 475 Poorest 25% Second Quartile Third Richest Quartile 25% 9.2 Resilience in science Country Resilence % Vietnam 76 76 Macao 65 65 Hong Kong 62 62 Japan 49 49 Singapore 49 49 Estonia 48 48 Taiwan 46 46 China 45 45 Finland 43 43 South Korea 40 40 Canada 39 39 Portugal 38 38 England 36 36 Poland 35 35 Slovenia 35 35 Germany 34 34 Australia 33 33 United States 32 32 Netherlands 31 31 Ireland 30 30 New Zealand 30 30 Northern Ireland 30 30 Switzerland 29 29 Wales 29 29 Denmark 28 28 Belgium 27 27 France 27 27 Italy 27 27 Scotland 27 27 Austria 26 26 Norway 26 26 Russia 26 26 Czech Republic 25 25 Sweden 25 25 Luxembourg 21 21 A student is denoted as resilient if their socio-economic status is in the poorest 25% of their own country but they perform in the top quarter of all students in the PISA study. According to PISA there is no evidence that countries with academically selective schooling systems have a greater proportion of resilient pupils. www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 10
10.1 Sectoral differences 570 540 510 480 Grammar Non-selective Science Reading Maths The difference in performance between Grammar and non-selective schools in NI for 2015: Science: 96 Reading: 86 Mathematics: 84 This means that students in Grammar schools are on avarge ahead by 3 years of additional schooling. 10.2 Additional countries results Science Reading Mathematics The following countries also participated in PISA but typically performed lower across the disciplines and don't appear in the visuals above. 477 470 477 Hungary 475 472 478 Lithuania 475 487 464 Croatia 475 475 456 CABA (Argentina) 473 482 488 Iceland 467 479 470 Israel 465 447 479 Malta 461 453 475 Slovak Republic 455 467 454 Greece 447 459 423 Chile 446 432 441 Bulgaria 437 434 427 United Arab Emirates 435 437 418 Uruguay 435 434 444 Romania 433 443 437 Cyprus1 428 416 420 Moldova 427 405 413 Albania 425 428 420 Turkey 425 427 417 Trinidad and Tobago 421 409 415 Thailand 420 427 400 Costa Rica 418 402 402 Qatar 416 425 390 Colombia 416 423 408 Mexico 411 427 418 Montenegro 411 401 404 Georgia 409 408 380 Jordan 403 397 386 Indonesia 401 407 377 Brazil 397 398 387 Peru 386 347 396 Lebanon 386 361 367 Tunisia 384 352 371 FYROM 378 347 362 Kosovo 376 350 360 Algeria 332 358 328 Dominican Republic www.transinfo.co.uk 12/02/2017 11
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