Demographic Update Spring 2015

Melissa Independent School District Demographic Update Spring 2015 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions Texas remains a top state in job growth in 2014, with a rate of 4%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average. The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7 consecutive years. (State Comptrollers Office) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (December 2014) - U.S. 5.4% - Texas 4.1% - DFW MSA 4.0% - Collin County 3.7% In 2014, Collin County issued 6,698 single-family housing permits. This is a 3.9% rise from 2013. The County also issued 3,734 multi-family permits. (Real Estate Center at Texas A&M) 2

Annual Job Growth Nov 2013 to Nov 2014 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% Houston Dallas Fort Worth San Jose Austin Phoenix San Antonio Los Angeles New York City DFW gained 136,900 net jobs from November 2013 to November 2014 Ranked 2 nd in the U.S. in total job growth 3

Local Economic Overview State Farm Begins Relocation State Farm Insurance is currently moving employees into its new hub in Richardson The move will bring up to 8,000 employees to DFW Two additional buildings will be complete by the end of 2015, and a third will open in 2016 State Farm will occupy approximately 2 million square feet in the CityLine development Located near President George Bush Turnpike and North Central Expressway Toyota Breaks Ground Toyota Motor North America broke ground on its new headquarters in Plano New $350 million campus on 100 acres will hold up to 4,000 employees at completion Employees will relocate from several states to DFW This is the first time in the company s history all its employees will be housed together Toyota plans to have 300 employees relocate to DFW in 2015 5

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 120,145 Texas Enrollment Trends 140,000 Enrollment Change 98,273 78,644 85,773 77,261 73,685 78,078 76,085 64,962 2013 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,151,925 Total Growth 76,085 5,400,000 Total Enrollment 5,151,925 5,200,000 5,075,840 5,000,000 4,998,579 4,749,571 4,933,617 4,800,000 4,847,844 4,592,849 4,600,000 4,671,493 4,399,019 4,519,164 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 5

Region 10 Enrollment Trends Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 District Frisco ISD Richardson ISD Prosper ISD Mesquite ISD Allen ISD Wylie ISD (Collin) Dallas ISD Irving ISD Grand Prairie ISD Coppell ISD Forney ISD Waxahachie ISD McKinney ISD Rockwall ISD Lovejoy ISD Princeton ISD Lancaster ISD Highland Park ISD (Dallas) Royse City ISD Melissa ISD 2008/09 Enrollment 30,797 34,407 3,125 37,030 17,590 11,349 157,352 33,131 25,996 9,948 7,438 6,646 23,401 13,497 2,873 2,769 5,995 6,331 4,323 1,257 2013/14 Enrollment 46,053 38,283 6,413 39,909 20,382 13,726 159,713 35,328 27,740 11,364 8,648 7,814 24,565 14,626 3,739 3,623 6,820 7,037 5,015 1,895 5 YEAR Change (08/09 13/14) 15,256 3,876 3,288 2,879 2,792 2,377 2,361 2,197 1,744 1,416 1,210 1,168 1,164 1,129 866 854 825 706 692 638 6

Melissa ISD Housing Overview YTD Sales (16 Sales in 2014) 23% Average Price ($228,160 Dec. 2014) Median Price ($219,270 Dec. 2014) 10% 7% Number of Listings (40 Dec. 2014) 3% Days on the Market (68 Days) 5% 19% Existing Home Inventory (2.4 Month s Supply) 9

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 4Q14 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,743 2,669 4,064 7,319 2 Denton ISD 1,830 1,666 2,384 15,088 3 Northwest ISD 1,223 1,229 1,507 22,180 4 Prosper ISD 1,335 1,133 2,138 19,503 5 Keller ISD 1,022 1,000 1,293 3,094 6 Dallas ISD 928 914 1,956 5,824 7 Lewisville ISD 919 873 2,248 3,705 8 Eagle Mtn. Saginaw ISD 832 825 1,661 19,645 9 Allen ISD 656 623 766 1,411 10 Rockwall ISD 726 619 1,649 7,701 11 McKinney ISD 601 561 1,202 6,837 12 Mansfield ISD 543 546 1,043 5,443 13 Forney ISD 565 542 922 11,397 14 Little Elm ISD 624 539 1,306 5,109 15 Crowley ISD 494 425 1,476 8,483 16 Burleson ISD 404 416 734 3,793 17 Plano ISD 416 383 1,132 1,306 18 HEB ISD 436 371 375 5,361 19 Wylie ISD 459 368 552 4,755 20 Midlothian ISD 446 365 919 20,294 21 Anna ISD 337 356 152 3,579 22 Garland ISD 373 351 586 4,188 23 Fort Worth ISD 337 311 1,097 4,210 24 Aledo ISD 356 301 929 15,724 25 Waxahachie ISD 348 279 751 9,188 26 Royse City ISD 295 266 757 7,123 27 Carrollton Farmers Branch ISD 252 248 206 651 28 Melissa ISD 286 220 404 5,060 29 Weatherford ISD 250 210 468 828 30 Princeton ISD 211 182 251 1,510 Source: Metrostudy 8

New Housing Activity Melissa ISD Housing Activity 160 Starts Closings Inventory 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 48 25 26 39 57 1Q 21 17 29 50 33 2Q 22 26 62 36 48 2Q 27 16 33 59 61 3Q 17 31 67 50 91 3Q 32 35 44 43 48 4Q 19 27 44 42 90 4Q 28 28 43 44 78 Total 106 109 199 167 286 Total 108 96 149 196 220 In 2014, Melissa ISD had more than 280 starts, this is an increase of 71% year over year Closings were over 200 for the year, a rise of more than 20 units compared to 2013 Inventory remains in a good position to sustain the current closing rate Source: Metrostudy 9

Annual Closing Distribution 2Q14 Top 6 Subdivisions 2Q14 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings 1 Villages of Melissa 60 13 54 23 2 North Creek Estates (Melissa) 49 9 50 19 3 Liberty 39 14 34 7 4 McKinney Meadows 30 8 21 8 5 Hunters Creek (Melissa) 12 2 14 3 6 Trails of Melissa 1 0 6 0 TOTALS 191 46 179 60 Source: Metrostudy 10

Vacant Developed Lots 2Q14 Top 6 Subdivisions 2Q14 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Villages of Melissa 89 876 2 North Creek Estates (Melissa) 70 598 3 Liberty 47 734 4 McKinney Meadows 37 22 5 Country Ridge 30 0 6 Hunters Creek (Melissa) 7 228 TOTALS 280 2,458 Source: Metrostudy 11

Future Lots 2Q14 Top 10 Subdivisions 2Q14 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Villages of Melissa 89 876 2 Liberty 47 734 3 Estates of Willow Wood, The (McKinney) 0 640 4 North Creek Estates (Melissa) 70 598 5 South Meadow 0 585 6 Crystal Park 0 427 7 Winchester Farms 0 402 8 Trails of Melissa 0 236 9 Hunters Creek (Melissa) 7 228 10 Villages of Melissa Townhomes 0 178 TOTALS 213 4,904 Source: Metrostudy 12

Active Subdivisions Liberty and Trails of Melissa Liberty 1,250 total lots 525 occupied 465 students in Sept. 2014 Phase 3 delivered with 173 lots 26 closings in 2014 Building 75-100 in 2015 «5 MCKILLOP MELISSA «SRT MELISSA RIDGE MELISSA Trails of Melissa 343 total 230 futures 17 U/C 70 students in Sept. 2014 Building 50-60 homes in 2015 «SRT 13

Active Subdivisions North Creek and Magnolia Ridge «5 North Creek 950 total lots 550 futures 23 U/C 173 students in Sept. 2014 Phase 2 and 3 under construction Building 50 homes in 2015 Magnolia Ridge Future single family 173 lots in Phase 1 Groundwork underway MCKILLOP Liberty «SRT 14

Active Subdivision Villages of Melissa Villages of Melissa 1,200 total lots 870 futures 58 U/C 189 students in Sept. 2014 Phase 2 underway with 83 lots Building 75 homes in 2015 «5 75 MCKILLOP MELISSA Liberty MELISSA MELISSA RIDGE 17

Future Subdivision Estates of Willow Wood Estates of Willow Wood 640 future lots 305 acres Phase 1= 190 lots Currently undergoing annexation and rezoning with the City of McKinney 75 FM 543 N MCDONALD ST 18

Enrollment History Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2010/11 4 18 126 113 107 113 121 116 106 105 116 113 104 106 85 1,453 2011/12 7 23 139 126 124 119 118 137 131 120 104 129 126 98 99 1,600 147 10.1% 2012/13 9 25 130 146 130 126 125 124 143 144 132 114 133 123 90 1,694 94 5.9% 2013/14 6 21 183 139 163 148 140 132 142 150 147 142 119 136 127 1,895 201 11.9% 2014/15 11 14 152 185 170 182 162 164 150 158 171 174 154 124 139 2,110 215 11.3% Cohort Analysis *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 3 Year Avg. 1.058 1.044 1.124 1.090 1.085 1.093 1.108 1.087 1.087 1.119 1.053 1.014 0.991 2012/13 0.935 1.050 1.032 1.016 1.050 1.051 1.044 1.099 1.100 1.096 1.031 0.976 0.918 2013/14 1.408 1.069 1.116 1.138 1.111 1.056 1.145 1.049 1.021 1.076 1.044 1.023 1.033 2014/15 0.831 1.011 1.223 1.117 1.095 1.171 1.136 1.113 1.140 1.184 1.085 1.042 1.022 Initial Outlook Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Roll up 152 152 185 170 182 162 164 150 158 171 174 154 124 2,123 13 Prev Cohort 126 154 226 190 199 190 186 167 180 202 189 160 127 2,322 212 3 YR Avg. 161 159 208 185 198 177 182 163 172 191 183 156 123 2,282 172 19

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth % Growth Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2010/11 4 18 126 113 107 113 121 116 106 105 116 113 104 106 85 1,453 2011/12 7 23 139 126 124 119 118 137 131 120 104 129 126 98 99 1,600 147 10.1% 2012/13 9 25 130 146 130 126 125 124 143 144 132 114 133 123 90 1,694 94 5.9% 2013/14 6 21 183 139 163 148 140 132 142 150 147 142 119 136 127 1,895 201 11.9% 2014/15 11 14 152 185 170 182 162 164 150 158 171 174 154 124 139 2,110 215 11.3% 2015/16 11 14 164 167 209 189 198 177 182 163 172 191 183 157 125 2,302 192 9.1% 2016/17 11 14 181 174 197 234 208 219 200 198 177 194 203 180 160 2,550 248 10.8% 2017/18 11 14 190 191 205 220 256 234 247 219 219 202 207 208 184 2,807 257 10.1% 2018/19 11 14 205 204 222 229 240 284 263 274 239 247 214 214 203 3,063 256 9.1% 2019/20 11 14 221 218 239 248 251 267 320 289 300 271 262 217 215 3,343 280 9.1% 2020/21 11 14 232 235 255 267 271 280 300 353 317 340 293 268 217 3,653 310 9.3% 2021/22 11 14 246 247 275 285 292 301 315 331 387 359 364 300 267 3,994 341 9.3% 2022/23 11 14 258 262 289 307 312 325 339 347 363 439 384 371 302 4,323 329 8.2% 2023/24 11 14 268 275 307 323 336 347 365 374 380 411 471 392 377 4,651 328 7.6% 2024/25 11 14 281 286 322 343 353 374 390 402 410 431 440 481 395 4,933 282 6.1% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Melissa ISD will reach more than 2,300 students next fall 5 year growth = 1,233 students 2019/20 enrollment = 3,343 10 year growth = 2,823 students 2024/25 enrollment = 4,933 18

Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 HARRY MCKILLOP ELEMENTARY 660 714 754 811 831 885 951 1,014 1,078 1,141 1,198 1,257 ELEMENTARY TOTAL 660 714 754 811 831 885 951 1,014 1,078 1,141 1,198 1,257 Elementary Absolute Change 94 54 40 57 20 54 66 63 64 63 57 59 Elementary Percent Change 16.61% 8.18% 5.60% 7.56% 2.47% 6.50% 7.46% 6.62% 6.31% 5.84% 5.00% 4.92% MELISSA RIDGE INTERMEDIATE 414 476 557 627 737 787 838 851 908 976 1,048 1,117 INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTAL 414 476 557 627 737 787 838 851 908 976 1,048 1,117 Intermdiate Absolute Change 22 62 81 70 110 50 51 13 57 68 72 69 Intermediate Percent Change 5.61% 14.98% 17.02% 12.57% 17.54% 6.78% 6.48% 1.55% 6.70% 7.49% 7.38% 6.58% MELISSA MIDDLE SCHOOL 297 329 335 375 438 513 589 670 718 710 754 812 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 297 329 335 375 438 513 589 670 718 710 754 812 Middle School Absolute Change 22 32 6 40 63 75 76 81 48 8 44 58 Middle School Percent Change 8.00% 10.77% 1.82% 11.94% 16.80% 17.12% 14.81% 13.75% 7.16% 1.11% 6.20% 7.69% MELISSA HIGH SCHOOL 523 590 655 736 800 877 964 1,117 1,289 1,495 1,650 1,746 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 523 590 655 736 800 877 964 1,117 1,289 1,495 1,650 1,746 High School Absolute Change 63 67 65 81 64 77 87 153 172 206 155 96 High School Percent Change 13.70% 12.81% 11.02% 12.37% 8.70% 9.63% 9.92% 15.87% 15.40% 15.98% 10.37% 5.82% COLLIN COUNTY JJAEP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DISTRICT TOTALS 1,895 2,110 2,302 2,550 2,807 3,063 3,343 3,653 3,994 4,323 4,651 4,933 District Absolute Change 201 215 192 248 257 256 280 310 341 329 328 282 District Percent Change 11.87% 11.35% 9.10% 10.77% 10.08% 9.12% 9.14% 9.27% 9.33% 8.24% 7.59% 6.06% 19

Summary Texas economy continues to be the strongest state economy in the country. DFW will continue to be a leader in job and population growth due to the housing market and its diverse economy. Starts and closes were over 220 units each for 2014. Vacant Developed Lot supply is in a good position to sustain the current starting rate. MISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,233 students during the next 5 years. 2019/20 enrollment projection 3,343. MISD is projected to have almost 5,000 students for the 2024/25 school year. www.tdemographics.com 22