Eek! -ology: what HAPPens IF permafrost THAws? Overview: In this lesson students explore the effects of thawing permafrost on plant, animal and human inhabitants of the Arctic, set up a hypothetical temperature model and predict possible changes in the Arctic landscape in the 21st century. Objectives: The student will: give a presentation about the relationship between permafrost and ecology; and graph hypothetical temperature data to simulate climate modeling. Targeted Alaska Grade Level Expectations: Science [9]SA1.1 The student demonstrates an understanding of the processes of science by asking questions, predicting, observing, describing, measuring, classifying, making generalizations, inferring, and communicating. [10-11]SA1.1 The student demonstrates an understanding of the processes of science by asking questions, predicting, observing, describing, measuring, classifying, making generalizations, analyzing data, developing models, inferring, and communicating. [10]SA2.1 The student demonstrates an understanding of the attitudes and approaches to scientific inquiry by examining methodology and conclusions to identify bias and determining if evidence logically supports the conclusions. [10]SG3.1 The student demonstrates an understanding that scientific knowledge is ongoing and subject to change by using experimental or observational data to evaluate a hypothesis. Vocabulary: boreal forest characterized by coniferous forests climate model - uses quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice; used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate ecology the scientific study of the relationships between living things and their environments; a system of such relationships fluctuation to shift back and forth uncertainly or to ebb and flow in waves habitat the area or natural environment in which an animal or plant normally lives, such as a desert, coral reef, or freshwater lake; often home to many different organisms horizontal axis the horizontal line at the bottom of a graph; also called the x-axis or abscissa hypothesis a proposed answer to a causal question; testable using a how or why question hypothetical describes a situation that is made up in order to draw out and test a similar situation s logical or empirical consequences simulate to give or assume the appearance of something statistics/statistical a branch of mathematics dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data trendline an upward or downward line on a chart indicating movement from the average over time vertical axis the vertical line on the side (usually left) of a graph; also called the y-axis or ordinate 184
Eek! -ology: what HAPPens IF permafrost THAws? Whole Picture: A flight over the state of Alaska reveals millions of lakes, ponds, rivers and streams home to abundant wildlife and beautiful tundra as well as boreal forests. Alaska seems to have an abundance of water. In reality, however, the amount of yearly precipitation is so low that most of the state is considered a desert. The layer of permafrost that lies just beneath the surface acts as a barrier, holding the water above. If the permafrost were to thaw, those lakes and ponds would disappear, the water seeping into the ground. The Arctic landscape rests on a permafrost foundation. In Alaska, the land north of the Brooks Range is underlain with continuous permafrost. South of the range, the permafrost becomes discontinuous, then sporadic, but nearly all of Alaska has some permafrost. Despite the harsh conditions, permafrost ground supports a variety of plant and animal life and is home to many people, all of which have adapted to life on frozen ground. What happens if permafrost starts to thaw? Large-scale changes in vegetation, habitat and animal life would occur. Wetlands that currently support abundant waterfowl each summer would no longer provide sanctuary. Tundra that provides abundant food and safe breeding grounds for caribou would disappear. Communities would be faced with either repairing collapsing infrastructure or moving. Traditional ways of life would be impacted. But, is permafrost thawing? Scientists point to increased air temperatures in the Arctic and their effect on permafrost. Climate changes could affect the foundation of the Arctic landscape. Climate models are challenging and rely on complex factors. Many people wonder if increased air temperatures are symptoms of global warming or are part of natural climate variations. Materials: Deck of cards (one per small group) Colored pencils (set of 6, one per group) Graph paper, 4 lines per inch (several sheet per small group) *Note: you can print your own graph paper for free from: http://incompetech.com/graphpaper/. MULTIMEDIA: Planning for Change MULTIMEDIA: Alaska Scenarios and Permafrost STUDENT WORKSHEET: Eek!-ology: What Happens if Permafrost Thaws? STUDENT LAB: Graphing Climate Variability Activity Preparation: 1. This lesson will likely take two class periods to complete. Review the lesson ahead to decide the best way to manage the time needed. Access the MULTIMEDIA files Planning for Change and Alaska Scenarios and Permafrost and determine the best way to present the files to the class. (See Activity Procedure 5.) 2. Bookmark the National Snow and Ice Data Center website on student computers: http://nsidc.org/ frozenground/index.html. Review the website to become familiar with the layout and content in order to help students during the lesson, especially with formulating relevant quiz questions. Activity Procedure: 1. Ask students if they have seen any evidence of permafrost thaw. They may have seen ground slumps, riverbank erosion, tilted buildings or cracks and heaves in roads. Review the extent of continuous and discontinuous permafrost in Alaska, if needed. (See Maps section of the UNITE US website at www. uniteusforclimate.org.) Explain the potential for permafrost thaw and that such a thaw would affect the ecology of the Arctic landscape (see Whole Picture). 2. Divide students into small groups. There are four topics that students will study (1.Climate and Frozen Ground, Ecology, 2. Frozen Ground and Plants, 3. Ecology, Frozen Ground and 4. Animals, and People and Frozen Ground), then present to classmates. If there is a need for more than four groups, choose a topic (or 185
Eek! -ology: what HAPPens IF permafrost THAws? topics) that can be repeated. Hand out one section of STUDENT WORKSHEET: Eek!-ology: What Happens if Permafrost Thaws? to each group. Explain that groups will prepare a brief presentation (two to four minutes) that teaches fellow classmates about their assigned topic. Give groups a minute to decide among themselves which presentation type they want to do, then direct them to materials as needed. 3. Students will access the National Snow and Ice Data Center website on student computers: http://nsidc. org/frozenground/index.html in order to complete the assignment. Allow students adequate time to research and develop a brief presentation based on the worksheet. Depending on students, it could take 30 to 45 minutes. Emphasize that students must develop three quiz questions that will be addressed in their presentation. All the quiz questions will be used later to test classmates. Students must use one of each of the following question formats: an essay, a fill-in-the-blank, and a multiple choice. Students must also provide an answer key. NOTE: Use the questions to create a review quiz for students to take the next day. Be sure to add a question or two based on the MULTIMEDIA files Planning for Change and Alaska Scenarios and Permafrost, viewed later in the lesson. 4. Once students have completed their presentation, allow time for them to present. Based on your review of the website and the copy of the questions handed in by each group, ask questions to ensure that content was sufficiently covered. 5. Explain that scientists can t predict with certainty what is going to happen to Earth s climate in the future, however climate models use past records to paint a picture of what is likely to come. The MULTIMEDIA files Planning for Change and Alaska Scenarios and Permafrost describe the way some climate models work. Have students access the multimedia on student computers or, if possible, display the files on a multimedia projector and go through them as a class activity. 6. Divide students into small groups. Tell students they will now make a mock climate model using playing cards that will serve as temperature data. Hand out STUDENT LAB: Graphing Climate Variability, as well as the materials needed to complete the activity. Explain the process to students then allow time for them to complete the lab. Circulate to ensure understanding. 7. Remind students that the lesson focus has been on how climate change might affect permafrost. Have a review discussion based on student presentations, the climate models viewed in the multimedia and the student lab. 8. Hand out the quiz with student questions and ask students to complete. Ideas for Filming: Students will complete a short film about permafrost for the final project associated with this UNITE US unit. Each lesson leading to the final project contains ideas about what students might film as they compile clips. Students are not limited to the list and are encouraged to use their imagination and creativity when filming. Since this lesson deals with the plant, animal and human ecologies of an area almost anything has potential as a film source. Filming plants and trees in the area and animal life would be appropriate, especially those plants that grow on permafrost ground or animals that are specifically adapted to life on permafrost. Filming of community infrastructure like water tanks, community buildings or sewer lines would also be appropriate. With permission, interviews with those who have seen changes in the landscape occur in their lifetimes would also be appropriate. Extension Idea: Students can view the movie A Changing Arctic Landscape in the resources section of the UNITE US website. (www.uniteusforclimate.org). After viewing the movie, students can interview community members who have seen changes in the weather/climate in their life times. Interviews can take the form of those modeled in the movie. With permission, the interview can be filmed and shown to the class. 186
Eek! -ology: what HAPPens IF permafrost THAws? Answers: STUDENT worksheet: Answers will vary depending on questions created by student. Students must provide an answer key. STUDENT LAB: Graphing Climate Variability Answers will vary. Students should answer all of the lab questions and finish with a minimum of three graphs. 187
Eek! -ology: what happens if permafrost thaws? GROUP 1 Climate and Frozen Ground Directions: Create a brief presentation about Climate and Frozen Ground based on information found at the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/frozenground/). The purpose of the presentation is to teach classmates about climate and frozen ground. Choose a presentation format. Check one below: A six-slide Microsoft PowerPoint presentation A poster presentation (using chart paper) A four-minute skit (includes all group members) A four-minute speech (divide among group members) Other (with teacher approval) The presentation must include: 1. An introduction that gives an overview of the topic. 2. A presentation that highlights at least four important points about the effects of climate change on permafrost. 3. Visual aids: pictures, if possible, and/or graphics, drawings, etc. 4. A what if component: What could happen to permafrost if the climate continues to warm? What does that mean for the Arctic? 5. A conclusion that includes an opportunity for classmates to ask questions. In addition in the space below you must prepare three quiz questions that classmates will be able to answer after your presentation. Write these down and hand them in to your teacher before you present. Begin by visiting the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/ frozenground/). Using the menu on the left find the section titled Climate and Frozen Ground. GROUP 1 Climate and Frozen Ground Detach and give to your teacher prior to your presentation. Create one essay, one fill-in-the-blank, and one multiple-choice question. You must also provide an answer key. Our three questions are: 1. 2. 3. 188
Eek! -ology: what happens if permafrost thaws? GROUP 2 Ecology, Frozen Ground and Plants Directions: Create a brief presentation about Ecology, Frozen Ground and Plants based on information found at the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/frozenground/). The purpose of the presentation is to teach classmates about plants and frozen ground. Choose a presentation format. Check one below: A six-slide Microsoft PowerPoint presentation A poster presentation (using chart paper) A four-minute skit (includes all group members) A four-minute speech (divide among group members) Other (with teacher approval) The presentation must include: 1. An introduction that gives an overview of the topic. 2. A presentation that highlights at least four important points about the relationship between plants and permafrost. 3. Visual aids: pictures, if possible, and/or graphics, drawings, etc. 4. A what if component: What could happen to boreal forests if permafrost in the Arctic and subarctic region were to completely thaw? 5. A conclusion that includes an opportunity for classmates to ask questions. In addition in the space below you must prepare three quiz questions that classmates will be able to answer after your presentation. Write these down and hand them in to your teacher before you present. Begin by visiting the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/ frozenground/). Using the menu on the left find the section titled Ecology and Frozen Ground, then the subheading Plants. GROUP 2 Ecology Frozen Ground and Plants Detach and give to your teacher prior to your presentation. Create one essay, one fill-in-the-blank, and one multiple-choice question. You must also provide an answer key. Our three questions are: 1. 2. 3. 189
Eek! -ology: what happens if permafrost thaws? GROUP 3 Ecology, Frozen Ground and Animals Directions: Create a brief presentation about Ecology, Frozen Ground and Animals based on information found at the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/frozenground/). The purpose of the presentation is to teach classmates about animals and frozen ground. Choose a presentation format. Check one below: A six-slide Microsoft PowerPoint presentation A poster presentation (using chart paper) A four-minute skit (includes all group members) A four-minute speech (divide among group members) Other (with teacher approval) The presentation must include: 1. An introduction that gives an overview of the topic. 2. A presentation that highlights at least four important points about the relationship between animal habitat and permafrost. 3. Visual aids: pictures, if possible, and/or graphics, drawings, etc. 4. A what if component: What could happen to animal habitat if permafrost in the Arctic and subarctic region were to completely thaw? 5. A conclusion that includes an opportunity for classmates to ask questions. In addition in the space below you must prepare three quiz questions that classmates will be able to answer after your presentation. Write these down and hand them in to your teacher before you present. Begin by visiting the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/ frozenground/). Using the menu on the left find the section titled Ecology and Frozen Ground, then the subheading Animals. GROUP 3 Ecology, Frozen Ground and Animals Detach and give to your teacher prior to your presentation. Create one essay, one fill-in-the-blank, and one multiple-choice question. You must also provide an answer key. Our three questions are: 1. 2. 3. 190
Eek! -ology: what happens if permafrost thaws? GROUP 4 People and Frozen Ground Directions: Create a brief presentation about People and Frozen Ground based on information found at the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/frozenground/). The purpose of the presentation is to teach classmates about people and frozen ground. Choose a presentation format. Check one below: A six-slide Microsoft PowerPoint presentation A poster presentation (using chart paper) A four-minute skit (includes all group members) A four-minute speech (divide among group members) Other (with teacher approval) The presentation must include: 1. An introduction that gives an overview of the topic. 2. A presentation that highlights at least four important points about how people have adapted to living on frozen ground. 3. Visual aids: pictures, if possible, and/or graphics, drawings, etc. 4. A what if component: What could happen to communities if permafrost in the Arctic and subarctic region were to completely thaw? 5. A conclusion that includes an opportunity for classmates to ask questions. In addition in the space below you must prepare three quiz questions that classmates will be able to answer after your presentation. Write these down and hand them in to your teacher before you present. Begin by visiting the National Snow and Ice Data Center s All About Frozen Ground section (http://nsidc.org/ frozenground/). Using the menu on the left find the section titled People and Frozen Ground. GROUP 4 People and Frozen Ground Detach and give to your teacher prior to your presentation. Create one essay, one fill-in-the-blank, and one multiple-choice question. You must also provide an answer key. Our three questions are: 1. 2. 3. 191
graphing climate variability In this exercise you will graph temperature data points simulated by cards chosen randomly from a deck. Background: Permafrost is warming and thawing in the Arctic and subarctic region. Scientists must determine whether warmer air temperatures are the cause. This graphing exercise will create at a set of hypothetical data that will help you think like a climatologist. Materials: deck of cards graph paper pencil / colored pencils Questions: How much temperature data is needed to predict possible changes in the Arctic landscape in the 21st century? A decade? Two decades? A century? STEP 1: Prepare a piece of graph paper for a line graph. Label the horizontal (x) axis of the graph Year and label lines 1 through 30. Label the vertical (y) axis of the graph Mean Annual Temperature Departure from Average. Find the center of the vertical axis and label that line 0. This line represents the hypothetical mean annual average temperature. Above the 0 line label each line, beginning with.5 Celsius and increasing by.5 Celsius with each line. Below the 0 line label each line, beginning with -.5 Celsius and decreasing by -.5 Celsius with each line. Your graph is now ready for data. STEP 2: Review and practice. Each card in the deck is assigned a temperature value. RED cards indicate an increase in temperature and BLACK cards indicate a decrease in temperature. All hypothetical temperatures are in degrees Celsius. Ace Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten Jack Queen King STEP 3: Make a prediction..1 temperature change.2 temperature change.3 temperature change.4 temperature change.5 temperature change.6 temperature change.7 temperature change.8 temperature change.9 temperature change 1.0 temperature change 1.5 temperature change 2.0 temperature change 2.5 temperature change Practice Draw three practice cards. After each draw, determine the increase or decrease in temperature indicated by each card s color and number. Write down your answers and ask your teacher to check that you are using the scale correctly. = +.1 degree In STEP 4 you will draw 30 cards at random then graph the results. The number of black cards (cold) and red cards (warm) is equal. Circle one. I think the graph will show the number of cold days as (less than equal to more than) the number of warm days. Why? 192
Graphing climate variability STEP 4: Draw thirty cards at random from the deck of cards. Display the cards one at a time. Determine if the card indicates a temperature increase or a temperature decrease and the number of degrees or portions of a degree. Choose one colored pencil then plot each point on the graph you created. The first card drawn should be entered at Year 1, the second Year 2, and so on. After you have plotted all thirty data points, draw a line that connects the points. Label your graph, Graph 1. Your initial graph may look something like this: SAMPLE GRAPH ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0.50 -.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-3.5-4.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 YEAR Was the prediction you made in STEP 3 correct? Circle one: Yes / No STEP 5: Gather up all the cards. Remove three black cards from the deck. Remember that the black cards represent cooler than average years. By removing them you are simulating the influence of global warming. You are going to create another graph, but first: Circle one. I think the second line will show the number of cold days as (less than equal to more than) the number of warm days. Why? STEP 6: Again draw 30 cards at random from the deck. Repeat steps 1 through 4 using a new sheet of graph paper. Label your graph, Graph 2. Was the prediction you made in STEP 5 correct? Circle one: Yes / No Is there any notable difference between the two lines? Explain. STEP 7: Gather up all the cards, then remove three more black cards. Circle one: I think the third line will show the number of cold days as (less than equal to more than) the number of warm days. Why? 193
graphing climate variability STEP 8: Again draw 30 cards at random from the deck. Repeat steps 1 through 4 using a new sheet of graph paper. Label your graph, Graph 3. Was the prediction you made in STEP 7 correct? Circle one: Yes / No Are there any notable differences between the three lines? Explain. ** As time permits, continue to repeat the process to add more graphs. Remember to take out three black cards each time. STEP 9: Tape the graphs together so you see them as one continuous record. Line up the vertical axes. Draw a trendline that cuts through the middle of the data plots and runs through all three graphs. You can eyeball it for this one. Here s an example: SAMPLE GRAPH ANNUAL DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0.50 -.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-3.5-4.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 YEAR A. Looking at your three graphs, what temperature trend do you notice? B. What caused the trend? Conclusion: Remember the initial question: How much temperature data is needed to predict possible changes in the Arctic landscape in the 21st century? A decade? Two decades? A century? Write a conclusion based on what you ve learned from the hypothetical line graph data you collected. 194