Population (30 June 2016): 29,101 people

Estimating temporary populations the power of aggregated mobile device data Andrew Howe, Tricia Chester Australian Coastal Councils Conference Redcliffe, 5 May 2017

Population estimates Official population measure ERP based on usual residence Is ERP relevant? regional populations vary monthly, weekly, daily, hourly numbers and characteristics (age/sex) vary ERP frequency and timeliness Temporary population estimates major data gap Solution? mobile device user data (aggregated & anonymised)

Pilot study hourly population estimates Trial engagement with telco company Australian Capital Region ACT and surrounds Geography: SA2s ACT suburbs, town centres NSW towns & regions Age (18+) and sex breakdown Hourly around the clock 18 April to 1 May 2016

Method Hourly location data builds as mobile device users connect Account for: multiple connections in hour no connection in past hour up to 24 hours previous Users weighted and projected to actual population, based on: SA2 of residence age (18+) sex

Method Weighted & projected population, 12pm 10am 11am 1pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 6am 7am 8am 9am Lowest Highest

Validation Customer counts by hour, East Melbourne, March May 2016

Validation Weighted and projected counts by hour, East Melbourne, weekdays 1 April 2016@1950 Collingwood v Richmond Crowd: 72,761 24 March 2016@1920 Richmond v Carlton Crowd: 75,706

Validation Weighted and projected counts by hour, East Melbourne, weekends

April 2016 (Pilot study period) Mon Tues Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 School holidays Long weekend - 25 26 27 26 29 30 1 ANZAC day Normal working days Normal weekend

Australian Capital Region (Pilot study area) Batemans Bay Merimbula Tura Beach Eden

Pilot study data 520 Hourly Population Estimates, Australian Capital Region Mon 18 April - Sun 1 May 510 Population ('000) 500 490 480 470 460 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May School holidays Long wkend Normal weekdays & wkend

ACT v NSW surrounds ACT Population ('000) 290 285 280 275 270 265 260 255 Hourly Population Estimates, ACT vs NSW surrounds Tuesday 19 April 230 225 220 215 210 205 200 195 NSW Population ('000) 250 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm 190 ACT NSW surrounds

Weekday populations Belconnen Town Centre

Weekday populations 11000 Hourly Population Estimates, Belconnen Town Centre Mon 18 April Fri 22 April 10000 Population 9000 8000 7000 6000 Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 ERP 5000 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

Weekday populations Scullin

Weekday populations Scullin, Mon to Fri Belconnen Town Centre, Mon to Fri 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri

Weekday populations Belconnen Region, 12 am Belconnen Region, 12 pm Scullin Belconnen Town Centre Bruce

Weekend populations Scullin, Monday - Sunday Belconnen, Monday - Sunday 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Weekend populations 11000 Hourly Population Estimates, Batemans Bay Mon 18 April Sun 24 April 10500 Population 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 Sat 23/04 Sun 24/04 7500 7000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

Event populations Bruce

Event populations - Bruce 10000 Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce SA2 Mon 18 Sat 23 April 9000 Raiders v Tigers Population 8000 7000 6000 5000 Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 Sat 23/04 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

Event populations - Bruce 5500 Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce SA2 Sat 23 April, by Sex 5000 4500 Population 4000 3500 Males Females 3000 2500 2000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

Event populations - Bruce Population 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce Mon 18 Sun 24 April Groovin the Moo (15,000 attendees) Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 Sat 23/04 Sun 24/04 0 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

Seachange area populations 55 Hourly Population Estimates, NSW Coast Mon 18 April Sun 1 May 50 Population ( 000) 45 40 35 30 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May School holidays Long wkend Normal weekdays & wkend

Seachange area populations Midday population, NSW Coast By age, peak v non-peak times 65+ 55 64 Age 45 54 35 44 25 34 Fri 29-Apr (non-peak) Sun 24-Apr (peak) 18 24 0 10 20 Population ( 000)

Conclusion Very promising results from pilot study Estimates based on this anonymised and aggregated data look good demographically Could fill the temporary population data gap Uses for these hourly population estimates lots! Planning and service provision CBDs, mining regions, tourist destinations Disaster preparedness Funding models etc

Future directions Short term ABS Information paper, released in 2017 Peer review and promote internationally Long term Continuing discussions around future plans

2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING

2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING From July 2017 CENSUS DATA SEMINARS Each capital city + regional locations Content: key census results & region-specific data data quality information census data products and training Data specialists available Selected seminars webcast live, recording available later Further info available soon www.abs.gov.au/census registration essential!

2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING