Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows September 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Implied International Capital Flows 1-3 Australia 4 Brazil 5 Canada 6 China 7 India 8 Indonesia 9 Japan 1 Korea 11 Russia 12 South Africa 13 Turkey 14 September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
2 Figure 1. Implied International Capital Flows WORLD EX-US: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 2 1 World Trade Surplus with US* (768.2) World (18.9) 1 Jun -1 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-1 * US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. Source: International Monetary Fund. 2 Figure 2. WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 2 1 1 Jun -1-1 -2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-2 * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.). Source: International Monetary Fund. Page 1 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
2 1-1 -2 Figure 3. IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Implied World Ex-US Capital Flows* Implied International Capital Flows JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) (-2.6) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9/8 Jun -22-2 -18-16 -14-12 -1-8 -6-4 -2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 2 15 1 US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and JP Morgan. 5-5 -1 Figure 4. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves* (-1.7) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) (-2.6) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and JP Morgan. Page 2 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows 9/8 Jun -16-14 -12-1 -8-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 www.
45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Figure 5. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World (yearly percent change) (.2) Implied International Capital Flows JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate (inverted scale) (-2.6) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9/8 Jun -16-14 -12-1 -8-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund and JP Morgan. Page 3 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
Australia 4 2 Figure 6. AUSTRALIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 4 2-2 -2-4 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4 4 Figure 7. AUSTRALIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 4 2 2-2 -2-4 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4 Page 4 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
Brazil 11 Figure 8. BRAZIL: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 1-1 -1-3 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-3 8 6 Figure 9. BRAZIL: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 8 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -6 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4 -6 Page 5 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
6 4 Figure 1. Canada CANADA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 6 4 2 2-2 -2-4 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4 4 Figure 11. CANADA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-6 Page 6 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Figure 12. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. China 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -1-11 -12-13 Figure 13. CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -1-11 -12-13 Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
2 Figure 14. India INDIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 2 1 1-1 -1-2 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-2 25 Figure 15. INDIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5 Page 8 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
5 4 3 Figure 16. INDONESIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Indonesia 5 4 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-2 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Figure 17. INDONESIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Page 9 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
4 3 2 Figure 18. Japan JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 4 3 2 1 1-1 -1-2 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-2 3 Figure 19. JAPAN: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-2 Page 1 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
1 8 6 Figure 2. Korea SOUTH KOREA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 1 8 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 -6-8 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-8 5 Figure 21. SOUTH KOREA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*) 5-5 -5-1 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-1 Page 11 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
3 Figure 22. Russia RUSSIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-2 1 Figure 23. RUSSIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 -3-4 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4 Page 12 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
15 1 Figure 24. South Africa SOUTH AFRICA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 15 1 5 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219-15 14 12 Figure 25. SOUTH AFRICA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* 14 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2-2 -4-6 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219-2 -4-6 Page 13 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
5 Figure 26. Turkey TURKEY: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-15 15 Figure 27. TURKEY: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*) 15 1 1 5 5 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Page 14 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
Copyright (c) 217. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@