Empires of Knowledge in East Asia What is the meaning of the extraordinary fluorescence of higher education and science in Post-Confucian systems? For the region, and for the world? Simon Marginson Centre for Higher Education Studies Institute of Education, London UK Tin Ka Ping Education Fund Distinguished Lecture Faculty of Education, University of Hong Kong, 25 June 2014
Empires of Knowledge in East Asia World growth in student participation and research science Transformation of higher education and research in East Asia. Social, political, economic and cultural drivers World-Class Universities in the East Asian region. Putting East Asian higher education in global context Similarities and differences with higher education in the English-speaking countries and Western Europe Emerging global agendas in China and other regional systems
Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio 1995/2011 World regions, UNESCO Institute for Statistics data 2014
The overwhelming trend to growth of participation in tertiary education Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio 1995/2011, selected OECD and European systems, UNESCO Institute for Statistics data 2014
Post-Confucian education systems head towards universal participation Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio, 2011 UNESCO Institute for Statistics & Taiwan Ministry of Education
Regional variation in GTER (%) in China Gross Tertiary Enrolment Rate, 2010. Source: Po Yang, Peking University
More growth in participation to come Asian middle class 2009-2030 (millions). European Union Institute for Strategic Studies, 2012 Middle class persons are defined as persons living on USD $10-100 per day, PPP
Social demand or economic demand for higher education? Which is the more plausible explanation of growth? I say growth is fully explained by ECONOMIC demand. Don t listen to Marginson! Gary Becker, author of Human Capital (1964)
Growth of tertiary participation ahead of GDP per capita, China 1980-2012
The growth of science, 1995-2011 Total world output of journal papers per year, US National Science Foundation data, 2014
51 countries with 1000 science papers p.a. US National Science Foundation data for 2011 ANGLO- SPHERE EUROPE EU NATIONS EUROPE NON-EU ASIA LATIN AMERICA Australia Austria Italy Croatia* China Argentina Canada Belgium Netherlands Norway India Brazil N. Zealand Czech Rep. Poland Russia Japan Chile* UK Denmark Portugal* Serbia* Malaysia* Mexico USA Finland Romania* Switzerland Pakistan* M.EAST /AF France Slovakia Turkey Singapore Iran Germany Slovenia* Ukraine South Korea Israel Greece Sweden Taiwan Saudi Arab.* Hungary Spain Thailand* Sth. Africa Ireland Sweden Egypt * Reached 1000 papers since 1997 (11 out of 51 nations) Tunisia*
Examples of fast growing science systems Journal papers per year, 1997-2011, US National Science Foundation data, 2014
Investment in Post-Confucian R&D is at similar levels to Western Europe Investment in R&D as a proportion of GDP, 2011, selected countries (OECD data 2013)
Three main regions of world R&D OECD data on investment in R&D for 2011
Fast growing Post-Confucian science Journal papers per year, 1997-2011, US National Science Foundation data ( 2014)
Rapid improvement in Chemistry in China Share of all papers and top 1% most cited papers, Chemistry, 2000 & 2012 US National Science Foundation data share of ALL papers in Chemistry USA China Japan EU 2000 20.3% 3.7% 11.2 % 38.7% 2012 16.2% 16.9% 7.9% 29.6% share of TOP 1% papers in Chemistry USA China Japan EU 2000 48.6% 0.6% 9.3% 30.2% 2012 33.5% 16.3% 5.6% 28.4%
Shanghai ranking top 500 universities Sinic systems, 2005 & 2013 2005 2013 China mainland 8 28 Hong Kong SAR 5 5 Taiwan China 5 9 Singapore 2 2 total 20 44
Majority of World-Class Universities still in Anglosphere (how much longer?) Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities, top 200, 2013 Other Asia 3 = Taiwan, Singapore, Korea
World-Class Universities: Singapore World rank on paper volume University Papers World rank on citation quality Papers in top 10% of field as proportion of all papers % Number of papers in top 10% of field 6 Stanford USA 13,399 5 22.3 2993 13 Cambridge UK 11,778 19 18.4 2163 28 National U Singapore 10,387 112 13.1 1361 63 Nanyang U Technology 7331 98 13.5 986 Source for this and all subsequent tables: Leiden University CWTS, 2014
World-Class Universities: mainland China World rank on paper volume University Papers World rank on citation quality Papers in top 10% of field as proportion of all papers % Number of papers in top 10% of field 13 Cambridge UK 11,778 19 18.4 2163 9 Zheijiang 12,342 464 8.3 1018 23 Shanghai Jiao Tong 11,164 487 7.9 887 36 Tsinghua 9713 264 10.6 1025 37 Peking 9534 359 9.5 906 53 Fudan 8183 351 9.6 784 61 Sichuan 7445 551 7.1 529 76 Sun Yat-sen 6725 453 8.4 563 83 Nanjing 6502 392 9.1 595 87 Shandong 6393 546 7.2 457 91 Huazhong US&T 6312 532 7.3 463 97 Harbin IT 6047 425 8.6 522 108 Jilin 5802 480 8.0 466 119 U Science & Technology 5458 212 11.4 621
Relatively high citation rates, China Universities with more than 10 per cent of papers in top 10% of field by cite rate University Total papers 2009-2012 Papers in top 10% of field by citation rate High citation papers as % of all papers Fuzhou 1138 12.1 137 Nankai 3946 11.6 456 Wuhan U of Technology 1175 11.6 136 Hunan 2135 11.5 245 U Science & Technology 5458 11.4 621 Tsinghua 9713 10.6 1025 East China U S&T 3554 10.5 373 Xiamen 3419 10.2 348 South China U Technology 3543 10.0 354
World-Class Universities: Hong Kong SAR World rank on paper volume University Papers World rank on citation quality Papers in top 10% of field as proportion of all papers % Number of papers in top 10% of field 6 Stanford USA 13,399 5 22.3 2993 13 Cambridge UK 11,778 19 18.4 2163 28 National U Singapore 10,387 112 13.1 1361 105 U Hong Kong 5930 220 11.3 669 132 Chinese U Hong Kong 5172 261 10.6 548 190 Hong Kong Polytechnic U 4250 308 10.0 426 248 City U Hong Kong 3490 187 11.6 406 311 Hong Kong U S&T 2826 154 12.2 343 691 Hong Kong Baptist U 1142 365 9.5 108
World-Class Universities: Taiwan World rank on paper volume University Papers World rank on citation quality Papers in top 10% of field as proportion of all papers % Number of papers in top 10% of field 6 Stanford USA 13,399 5 22.3 2993 13 Cambridge UK 11,778 19 18.4 2163 28 National U Singapore SIN 10,387 112 13.1 1361 41 National Taiwan 9226 512 7.5 695 96 National Cheng-Kung 6129 609 6.3 387 210 National Chiao Tung 3980 462 8.3 330 223 Chang Gung 3781 658 5.6 210 260 National Tsing Hua 3381 411 8.9 300
World rank on paper volume World-Class Universities: Korea University Papers World rank on citation quality Papers in top 10% of field as proportion of all papers % Number of papers in top 10% of field 6 Stanford USA 13,399 5 22.3 2993 13 Cambridge UK 11,778 19 18.4 2163 28 National U Singapore SIN 10,387 112 13.1 1361 11 Seoul National 12,114 520 7.4 901 58 Yonsei 7598 580 6.7 512 121 Korea 5446 619 6.1 331 131 SungKyunkwan 5175 569 6.9 355 150 Korea AI S&T 4791 283 10.3 493 209 Hanyang 3993 638 5.8 232 228 Kyung Hee 3709 597 6.5 240 293 Pusan National 3042 596 4.8 147 297 Pohang U S&T 2959 173 11.9 352 513 Ewha Women s 1661 306 10.1 167
World-Class Universities: Japan World rank on paper volume University Papers World rank on citation quality Papers in top 10% of field as proportion of all papers % Number of papers in top 10% of field 13 Cambridge UK 11,778 19 18.4 2163 28 National U Singapore SIN 10,387 112 13.1 1361 4 Tokyo 14,399 342 9.7 1389 21 Kyoto 11,358 423 8.6 982 44 Osaka 9001 479 8.0 724 45 Tohoku 8980 579 6.8 606 93 Kyushu 6199 639 5.8 360 99 Hokkaido 6029 656 5.6 337 124 Nagoya 5349 484 8.0 427 150 Tokyo IT 4791 599 6.5 310 156 Advanced I S&T 4682 543 7.2 337 265 Tsukuba 3329 646 5.8 192 280 Keio 3228 618 6.1 197 287 Hiroshima 3088 662 5.5 169
Asian HEIs, top 10% papers, 2009-2012 world university papers world university papers 29 Tokyo JAP 1389 123 Nanjing CHI 595 30 NU Singapore SIN 1361 130 Sun Yat-sen CHI 563 49 Tsinghua CHI 1025 135 Chinese U HK HON 548 53 Zhejiang CHI 1018 145 Sichuan CHI 529 55 Nanyang SIN 986 152 Harbin IT CHI 522 57 Kyoto JAP 982 157 Yonsei KOR 517 67 Peking CHI 906 169 Korea AI S&T KOR 493 70 Seoul National KOR 901 180 Jilin CHI 466 72 Shanghai Jiao Tong CHI 887 182 Huazhong U S&T CHI 463 87 Fudan CHI 784 183 Shandong CHI 457 95 Osaka JAP 724 185 Nankai CHI 456 100 National Taiwan TAI 695 199 Dalian UT CHI 428 103 U Hong Kong HON 669 200 Nagoya JAP 427 117 U S&T China CHI 621 201 HK Polytechnic HON 426 120 Tohoku JAP 606 211 City U Hong Kong HON 406
The state and accelerated growth: Journal papers, China 1995-2011
PISA performance at top and bottom
A distinctive East Asian university?
A global conversation