Attainment, Post 16 Progression and HE Participation Trends. Northamptonshire 2001/02 to 2008/09

Attainment, Post 16 Progression and HE Participation Trends Northamptonshire 2001/02 to 2008/09 Michael Kerrigan, April 2009

Attainment, post 16 progression and HE participation trends in Northamptonshire: 2001/02 to 2008/09 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 INTRODUCTION 5 SECTION 1: COMPULSORY EDUCATION ATTAINMENT IN NORTHAMPTONSHIRE 6 Key Stage 4 attainment by local authority and district 6 Key Stage 4 attainment by gender 7 Key Stage 4 attainment by ethnicity 7 Key Stage 4 attainment by free school meals uptake 8 Key Stage 4 attainment by Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) of pupils residence 9 SECTION 2: POST-16 PROGRESSION IN NORTHAMPTONSHIRE 11 Compulsory school leavers remaining in education or work-based-learning (WBL) 11 Educational progression of Key Stage 4 students 12 SECTION 3: HIGHER EDUCATION PROGRESSION TRENDS IN NORTHAMPTONSHIRE 14 HE participation by student residence and age group 14 HE participation by widening participation indicators 16 HE participation by gender 24 HE participation by ethnicity 25 HE participation by declared disability 26 CONCLUSION 27 APPENDICES 29 Page 1 of 32

Executive Summary Aimhigher Northamptonshire works in partnership to raise aspirations, improve attainment and increase participation in higher education for targeted students. To achieve this objective, the partnership aims to break down deep-rooted social and cultural barriers to help encourage young people with the capability to study higher education to feel that it is an option for them. As required by the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE), all Aimhigher area partnerships have recently submitted an evaluation plan for the funding period 2008 to 2011, and methodologies are currently being developed to link participants in Aimhigher interventions with subsequent learner outcomes. It is too early to provide a statistical causal link between participation in the Aimhigher programme and any changes in educational attainment and progression. However, data can be analysed on a macro scale using a variety of socio-economic criteria - the same criteria that Aimhigher Northamptonshire use to target students at an area and learner level. This provides an important indication of the progress made in terms of increasing the educational opportunities of disadvantaged groups, and permits us to make an evidence-based judgement of the likely contribution made by the widening participation programme. There is an obvious relationship between compulsory education attainment and subsequent progression to further and higher education. Progress made in terms of attainment is likely to have a positive impact on future opportunities to enter higher education, and there were further improvements in the performance of Key Stage 4 students between 2007 and 2008 assessments (pg. 6), although attainment rates in Northamptonshire have somewhat fallen behind the average for the East Midlands region and the country as a whole over recent years (pg. 29). The proportion of the county s Key Stage 4 students attaining Level 3 qualifications in the ensuing years was similar to the regional average (pg. 12), which was reflected in subsequent higher education participation rates (pgs. 12 & 16). From an Aimhigher perspective, educational attainment and progression analyses need to take account of the relative trends of advantaged and disadvantaged groups, as partners main objective is to widen participation in higher education, and not merely increase it. Against this backdrop, Aimhigher Northamptonshire targets its programmes to help ensure that the majority of students participating in activities are those from lower socio-economic groups and areas of relative deprivation, where higher education participation rates are low. Narrowing the attainment gap, and thus increasing subsequent (higher) educational opportunities of widening participation target groups, remains a major challenge in the county. Indeed, there is little evidence of progress over recent years in the performance of students claiming free school meals (pg. 8) or those residing in the most deprived areas of Northamptonshire (pg. 9). Recent HEFCE guidance on targeting learners 1 advocates the use of Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data to target students for Aimhigher interventions. It therefore makes sense to monitor changes in higher education participation trends using the same criteria. Between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry the number and proportion of young accepted UCAS applicants from the most deprived neighbourhoods decreased (pg. 17). This was reflected in the relative trends using other geographical proxies, such as the Educational, Skills & Training (EST), Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI), and Participation of Local Areas (POLAR2) data (pgs. 18 to 22). However, widening participation should be measured over the long-term, and over the last eight years the growth in young accepted applicants was considerably greater than those from less deprived neighbourhoods. 1 http://www.hefce.ac.uk/pubs/hefce/2007/07_12/ Page 2 of 32

In addition to IMD data, HEFCE have highlighted the importance of National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification (NS-SEC) data in the targeting process. Between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry, the proportion of young accepted UCAS applicants from the lowest socio-economic groups (NS-SEC 4-7) increased considerably (pg. 23), which somewhat contradicted the findings using the geographical proxies of disadvantage. Over the longer-term nevertheless, there has been increasing number and proportion of students from both lower socio-economic groups and those residing in the more deprived areas of Northamptonshire, which, as far as widening participation objectives are concerned, is certainly a movement in the right direction. Key findings Compulsory education attainment and post-16 progression trends in Northamptonshire There was an increase in the percentage of Northamptonshire s Key Stage 4 pupils achieving five or more A*Cs or equivalent (Level 2) qualifications. Key Stage 4 performance of students studying in Northamptonshire has somewhat fallen behind the average for the East Midlands region and the country as a whole over recent years. Pupils studying in Northampton and Wellingborough schools had the lowest rates of Level 2 attainment in Northamptonshire, whilst those studying in South Northamptonshire and Daventry had the highest. The percentage of boys achieving 5+ A*-Cs (or equivalent) has increased at a greater rate than girls over the last few years, hence the gender gap is showing signs of narrowing. Black students continue to have the lowest rates of attainment at Key Stage 4, although their performance has improved considerably over the last three years. Asian students have consistently been the highest performing ethnic group in Northamptonshire. There is little evidence of progress towards closing the attainment gap between advantaged and disadvantaged groups, according to both free school meals (FSM) and Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) criteria. According to latest data, the proportion of Northamptonshire s compulsory schools leavers (in 2006) staying on in education and work-based learning (WBL) remained the same as the previous year, and was slightly lower than the regional average. The percentage of Northamptonshire s Key Stage 4 pupils subsequently achieving Level 3 qualifications was similar to the regional average. This was reflected in the progression rates to higher education. Higher education progression trends in Northamptonshire There was a modest increase in the number of accepted UCAS applicants for 2008/09 entry, similar to the regional average increase. Over the eight years 2001/02 to 2008/09, the number of accepted applicants from Corby increased by the greatest proportion. According to Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), Education, Skills & Training (EST), Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI), and Participation of Local Areas (POLAR2) data, the number and proportion of young accepted applicants from disadvantaged areas decreased between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry. However, taking a longer-term view, the growth in students from WP target areas was considerably greater than those from less deprived neighbourhoods. Page 3 of 32

The increase in young accepted applicants from deprived, underrepresented areas between 2001/02 and 2008/09 entry was well in excess of the underlying increases in the populations of these neighbourhoods, which was not the case for less deprived areas. Whilst there appears to have been little movement in terms of increasing HE participation in Northamptonshire, there are clear signs that participation has widened over recent years. The proportion of accepted applicants from the lowest socio-economic groups (NS-SEC 4-7) increased considerably between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry, contradicting the findings using the geographical proxies of disadvantage. Nevertheless, over the longer-term, an increasing proportion of students from both lower socio economic groups and those residing in deprived areas have been accepted on full-time HE courses. Since 2001//02, the gender gap in higher education has widened, with little sign that it is beginning to narrow. The proportion of accepted UCAS applicants of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) background, and Black African students in particular, have increased considerably over recent years. There was a slight decrease in accepted applicants who declared a disability between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry. Page 4 of 32

Introduction This report provides an update of some of the key attainment, post 16 progression and higher education participation trends of students from Northamptonshire and complements the supplementary regional report. The report has been compiled using a combination of commissioned and publicly available secondary data, provided by organisations such as the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF), the Department for Innovation, University and Skills (DIUS), the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS), the Learning and Skills Council (LSC), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). All data analyses are aggregated and are not directly linked to specific individuals who may have taken part in various Aimhigher interventions. Therefore, the report does not seek to find a statistical causal link between participation in the Aimhigher programme and any changes in educational attainment and progression. 2 Nevertheless, aggregated trends provide an important indication of progress made in terms of increasing the educational opportunities of disadvantaged groups. The report is split into three sections. The first section provides analyses of student attainment at Key Stage 4, a key predicator of subsequent opportunities in higher education. Trends are examined by a variety of socioeconomic and demographic factors, such as gender, ethnicity, free school meals uptake, and relative deprivation of student residence. Section two of the report uses DCSF and LSC data to analyse post-16 progression trends of Northamptonshire students. Finally, section three updates UCAS applicant trends using the latest available datasets, and are again analysed using a variety of indicators to highlight any progress made in terms of widening participation in Northamptonshire. 2 Methodologies are currently being developed to link Aimhigher participant data (held on the Aimhigher in the East Midlands monitoring and evaluation database) with learner outcomes, as required by HEFCE s Further Guidance on Evaluation Planning (2008) http://www.actiononaccess.org/download.php?f=1276 Page 5 of 32

Section one: Compulsory education attainment in Northamptonshire This section of the report provides analyses of student attainment at Key Stage 4. Trends are examined by a variety of socio-economic and demographic factors, such as gender, ethnicity, free school meals uptake, and relative deprivation of student residence. Figure 1.1: Key Stage 4 attainment trends of pupils attending Northamptonshire schools, 2002 to 2008 60% 55% % of pupils attaining 5 or more A*-C GCSE grades or equivalent 45% 35% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % of pupils attaining 5 or more A*-C GCSE grades or equivalent including at least grade C GCSE in English and Maths Source: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/index.shtml Figure 1.1 shows the percentage of students studying at schools located in Northamptonshire who achieved the Level 2 benchmark of five or more A*-C GCSEs (or equivalent qualifications). 59.5% of pupils achieved this standard in 2008, compared with 55.1% the previous year an increase of 4.4 percentage points. There was also an improvement of 3.2 percentage points (from 42.2% to 45.4%) when including the gold standard English and maths indicator. Key Stage 4 performance of students studying in Northamptonshire has somewhat fallen behind the average for the East Midlands region and the country as a whole over recent years, as shown in Appendix 1. 3 Figure 1.2: Key Stage 4 attainment trends by district of school location, 2006 to 2008 1.2a: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs 1.2b: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs incl. E&M 80% 70% 60% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 80% 70% 60% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 Nb: Graphs have been sorted in such a way that the district with the lowest attainment rates (in 2008) are located in the far left group of columns, whilst the group with the highest attainment rates are located in the far right group of columns, to permit simple comparisons. Therefore, the order of each district appearing on the two graphs may be different. Source: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/index.shtml As illustrated in Figure 1.2, year 11 pupils studying in Northampton (47.4%) and Wellingborough (52.0%) schools had the lowest rates of Level 2 attainment in 2008, whilst pupils studying in South 3 See Appendix 2 for attainment trends of specific Aimhigher Northamptonshire priority schools. Page 6 of 32

Northamptonshire and Daventry schools had the highest (67.9% and 72.3% respectively). When taking account of the English and maths indicator, Corby schools fell below the average for Northamptonshire, despite relatively high rates of Level 2 attainment when not including A*-C English and maths. Figure 1.3: Percentage of pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 attaining 5+ A*-C GCSEs, by gender Male Female 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Northamptonshire 45.6% 46.4% 46.6% 46.1% 49.3% 51.0% 55.2% 55.9% 56.4% 55.8% 58.0% 60.1% 59.3% 64.2% East Midlands 44.2% 45.6% 46.3% 48.0% 50.5% 53.5% 58.8% 54.5% 55.9% 55.8% 57.5% 60.5% 62.4% 67.5% England 44.2% 46.0% 47.0% 50.0% 52.7% 55.6% 60.2% 55.0% 56.4% 57.2% 60.1% 62.3% 64.6% 69.0% Source: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/index.shtml Figure 1.4: Percentage of pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 attaining 5+ A*-C GCSEs, by gender, 2005 to 2008: Northamptonshire schools 1.4a: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs 1.4b: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs incl. E&M 65% 65% 60% 60% 55% 55% Male Male 45% Female 45% Female 35% 2005 2006 2007 2008 35% 2005 2006 2007 2008 http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/index.shtml Figures 1.3 and 1.4 demonstrate that the percentage of boys achieving 5+ A*-Cs (or equivalent) has increased at a greater rate than girls over the last few years, hence the gender gap is showing signs of narrowing. However, there has been a slower rate of improvement in the performance of both boys and girls in Northamptonshire when compared to the average for all local authorities in the East Midlands, as well as the country as a whole. Black students continue to have the lowest rates of attainment at Key Stage 4, although their performance has improved considerably over the last three years. Indeed, in 2006, 28.9% of Black pupils achieved the Level 2 standard, which by 2008 had increased to 48.6% (Figure 1.5a), which represents the highest rate of improvement of all the ethnic groups. Similar trends emerge when including English and maths in the calculations (Figure 1.5b). Asian students have consistently been the highest performing ethnic group in Northamptonshire. Of course, these figures are very much average for the ethnic groups as a whole, and should be interpreted with caution. For example, reports suggest that white working class students are the lowest attaining group when account is taken of other socio-economic factors independent of student ethnicity. 4 Free School Meals (FSM) data is used by a wide variety of agencies to measure the progress made by policies aimed at tackling social and educational disadvantage. 5 As can be seen in Figure 1.6, FSM claimants are significantly less likely to achieve benchmark Level 2 qualifications at Key Stage 4 than those 4 See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7316891.stm 5 For example see the National Indicators for Local Authorities http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/localgovernment/indicatorsdefinitions NI102 & NI106. It should be noted that identifying trends using FSM data can be problematic because the data only identifies pupils who actually claimed for free school meals, not those who are eligible but did not claim. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in some areas as many as of pupils entitled to free school meals do not register for them. Page 7 of 32

Figure 1.5: Percentage of pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 attaining 5+ A*-C GCSEs, by ethnic group, 2005 to 2008: Northamptonshire schools 1.5a: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs 1.5b: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs incl. E&M 70% 70% 60% 60% 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 10% 10% 0% Black Mixed White Asian 0% Black White Mixed Asian Nb: Graphs have been sorted in such a way that the district with the lowest attainment rates (in 2008) are located in the far left group of columns, whilst the group with the highest attainment rates are located in the far right group of columns, to permit simple comparisons. Therefore, the order of each district appearing on the two graphs may be different. Source: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/s000822/index.shtml (2008 figures are provisional and subject to change) not claiming for FSM. In 2008, 26.6% of FSM claimants from Northamptonshire schools achieved 5 or more A*-Cs (or equivalent), which dropped to 17.5% when including English and maths A*-C. This compares with 61.0% and 47.0% respectively for those pupils not claiming free school meals. Figure 1.6a shows that between 2005 and 2008 Level 2 attainment rates of Northamptonshire s FSM claimants have increased by 2.7 percentage points (from 23.9% to 26.6%), which is lower than the 6.5 percentage point increase progress made by non-fsm claimants (54.5% to 61.0%). When taking account of the English and maths indicators, the percentage of FSM claimants achieving the benchmark decreased between 2005 and 2007, although there was an increase last year, from 13.8% to 17.5%. When analysing trends over the last four years, there is currently little sign that the attainment gap between FSM and non-fsm claimants is narrowing in Northamptonshire schools. Figure 1.6: Percentage of pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 attaining 5+ A*-C GCSEs, by Free School Meal (FSM) claimants / non-claimants, 2005 to 2008: Northamptonshire schools 1.6a: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs 70% 60% 1.6b: % pupils attaining 5+ A*-Cs incl. E&M 70% 60% FSM claimant Not FSM claimant FSM claimant Not FSM claimant 10% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/s000822/index.shtml (2008 figures are provisional and subject to change) As noted, using FSM data for measuring progress in terms of attainment trends of disadvantaged groups is limited because of the significant number of eligible students who do not claim for free school meals and are therefore included within the data for non-fsm pupils. In effect, the real gap is likely to be wider Page 8 of 32

Figure 1.7: Average capped GCSE and equivalent point scores by national IMD category, 2004 to 2007 Northamptonshire residents Average capped GCSE and equivalent point score 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 2004 (avg. 278.6) 2005 (avg. 280.4) 2006 (avg. 285.7) 2007 (avg. 290.1) 180 A 10% most deprived LSOAs in England B C D E F G H I J 10% least deprived LSOAs in England Source: Adapted from attainment data by pupil residence www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination and 2007 IMD data http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/ Figure 1.8: Percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A*-C (or equivalent) by aggregated MLSOA IMD category, 2004 to 2007 Northamptonshire residents 80% % of pupils attaining 5+ A* C GCSE or equivalent 70% 60% 2004 2005 2006 2007 A 10% most deprived MSOAs in England B C D E F G H I J 10% least deprived MSOAs in England Source: Adapted from attainment data by pupil residence www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination and 2007 IMD data http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/ Page 9 of 32

and it is therefore useful to explore other methods. As suggested in recent HEFCE targeting guidance, 6 many Aimhigher partnerships use Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data to help identify priority schools, communities and individual learners for widening participation interventions. It therefore makes sense to measure progress in educational attainment and progression using the same criteria. Figure 1.7 demonstrates that there is an almost linear relationship between the relative deprivation of pupil residence (using IMD data) and GCSE attainment trends, in terms of pupils average capped points scores. 7 Unfortunately, it is not possible with currently available data to replicate Figure 1.7 using the more readily understood Level 2 thresholds (5+ A*-C or equivalent), as a significant proportion of such data at Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level (at which IMD data are calculated) has been suppressed. 8 As an alternative, Figure 1.8 aggregates all LSOAs to Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level 9 and calculates average IMD scores to classify ten deciles of deprivation. Again, the graph illustrates the relationship that exists, this time between deprivation and the likelihood of students attaining 5 or more A*-Cs (or equivalent). As was the case using free school meals criteria, there is little evidence of significant progress in terms of raising attainment of pupils from the most disadvantaged areas of Northamptonshire. 10 6 http://www.hefce.ac.uk/pubs/hefce/2007/07_12/ 7 For further information on the calculation of average point scores see http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/performancetables/schools_07/s6.shtml 8 Although the DCSF have recently started publishing aggregated attainment trends at local authority level based on pupil deprivation using Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) data, which should be a useful indicator to measure progress in terms of increasing attainment of disadvantaged groups in the future. At the time of writing only two years of data (for 2006 and 2007 were available). 9 There are an average of five LSOAs in a MSOA. 10 Although data for 2008 was not available at the time of writing, which was the year which saw some improvement in the attainment of free school meal claimants. Page 10 of 32

Section two: Post-16 progression in Northamptonshire This section of the report uses DCSF and LSC data to analyse post-16 progression trends of Northamptonshire students. Latest data from the DCSF indicate that, at the end of 2006, the proportion of Northamptonshire s compulsory school leavers staying on in education and work-based learning (WBL) remained at the same level (81%) as at the end of 2005. The average staying on rate in the East Midlands was 83% in 2006, compared with 87% for the country as a whole. Figure 2.1: Percentage of compulsory schools leavers remaining in education or WBL by local authority, 2003 to 2006* 95% 90% 85% 80% 2003 2004 2005 2006 75% * Figures show the percentage of school leavers in education (full-time or part-time) or work-based learning as at the end of the calendar year in which they left compulsory education Source: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/s000792/index.shtml Published achievement and attainment tables, including analysis shown in the previous section of this report, tend to focus on compulsory education attainment rates at the age of 16 (end of key stage 4). Of course, some students may take a non-traditional route towards levels 2, 3 and 4, and achieve such qualifications later in their educational life-cycle. Therefore, it can be potentially misleading to take account solely of, for example, Level 2 at 16, Level 3 at 18, and HE application the following academic year, as students may progress at a different pace. At the end of the 2003/04 academic year, 52% of pupils (aged 16) attending schools in Northamptonshire achieved Level 2 qualifications (Figure 2.2). This figure increased to 61% by the end of the next academic year (2004/05) aged 17, 67% by 2005/06, and finally 70% at age 19 in 2006/07. In effect, the proportion of pupils at Key Stage 4 in 2003/04 achieving 5 or more A*-Cs or equivalent qualifications increased by 18 percentage points, or around 1,600 students in the three years after the original Key Stage 4 year. 38% of the same year s cohort achieved Level 3 qualifications at 18 (which increased to 44% at 19 years of age). The percentage of students achieving Level 3 qualifications was similar to the regional average, which was reflected in the relative subsequent progression rates to higher education. Page 11 of 32

The age at which an earlier (2001/02 Key Stage 4) cohort achieved Level 3 qualifications is also shown in Figure 2.3 for further context. 36% of Northamptonshire s cohort achieved Level 3 qualifications aged 18 (year 13), which increased to 45% by the age of 21. It should be noted that higher education participation rates tend to be calculated for 18 and 19 year olds only, for valid methodological reasons. However, as the above suggests, a significant number of students who achieve necessary pre-entry qualifications may do so on a different timescale to the traditional route into higher education. Figure 2.2: Educational progression of 2003/04 Key Stage 4 students End of 2003/04 aged 16 % achieving level 2 qualifications End of 2004/05 aged 17 End of 2005/06 aged 18 End of 2006/07 aged 19 % achieving level 3 qualifications End of 2005/06 aged 18 End of 2006/07 aged 19 UCAS acceptances Student population 2003/04 aged 16 2006/07 2007/08 2003/04 Key Stage 4 students in HE by 19 % of 2003/04 Key Stage 4 students accepted on F/T HE course aged 18 or 19 Derby 48% 54% 60% 64% 32% 37% 3,040 543 248 791 26% Derbyshire 54% 61% 69% 72% 45% 9,295 2,034 860 2,894 31% Leicester 45% 55% 63% 67% 36% 42% 4,014 869 551 1,420 35% Leicestershire 56% 65% 71% 74% 43% 48% 8,018 1,945 911 2,856 36% Lincolnshire 57% 63% 70% 73% 41% 47% 8,693 1,858 762 2,620 Rutland 70% 74% 79% 80% 60% 63% * * * * * Northamptonshire 52% 61% 67% 70% 38% 44% 8,905 1,885 831 2,716 Nottingham 44% 48% 54% 57% 29% 34% 3,281 477 269 746 23% Nottinghamshire 47% 55% 63% 67% 34% 39% 10,076 2,074 887 2,961 29% East Midlands 52% 60% 67% 71% 38% 44% 56,108 11,818 5,388 17,206 31% Based on location where student studied Key Stage 4 Source: LSC Based on student residence Source: UCAS Conversion rates No. achieving Level 2 by 17 No. achieving Level 3 by 19 Level 2 to Level 3 conversion rate No. into F/T HE by 19 Level 2 to HE conversion rate Level 3 to HE conversion rate Derby 1,643 1,137 69% 791 48% 70% Derbyshire 5,692 4,212 74% 2,894 51% 69% Leicester 2,222 1,697 76% 1,420 64% 84% Leicestershire 5,219 3,887 74% 2,856 55% 73% Lincolnshire 5,517 4,094 74% 2,620 47% 64% Rutland * * * * * * Northamptonshire 5,396 3,886 72% 2,716 70% Nottingham 1,585 1,113 70% 746 47% 67% Nottinghamshire 5,525 3,973 72% 2,961 54% 75% East Midlands 33,526 24,947 74% 17,206 51% 69% * Figures meaningless because of significant impact of non-rutland residents attending boarding schools Figure 2.3: Percentage of 2001/02 Key Stage 4 students achieving Level 3 qualifications, by students age the qualification was attained Local Authority by age 18 by age 19 by age 20 by age 21 Derby 31% 36% 39% Derbyshire 38% 44% 46% 48% Leicester 37% 44% 47% 48% Leicestershire 43% 48% 51% 53% Lincolnshire 44% 46% 48% Rutland 54% 59% 60% 62% Northamptonshire 36% 41% 43% 45% Nottingham 29% 34% 36% 36% Nottinghamshire 32% 38% 42% East Midlands 37% 43% 46% 48% By combining LSC attainment data at Levels 2 and 3 with subsequent UCAS data, it is possible to track the 2003/04 Key Stage 4 cohorts in terms of their future educational progression. 11 Approximately 72% of 11 It should be noted that the 2003/04 cohort is identified based on where they went to school, whilst subsequent UCAS data is calculated by pupil residence. Therefore, caution should be exercised when interpreting the analysis because no account has been taken for 'cross border' pupils, who resided in a different local authority at Key Stage 4 to where they attended school. Pupils who move out of the local authority at 16 to study are accounted for however (assuming they still reside in the same local authority), Page 12 of 32

Northamptonshire s cohort who achieved Level 2 qualifications in either 2003/04 or 2004/05 (by the age of 17) converted them to Level 3 qualifications by 19 (in either 2005/06 or 2006/07), whilst around converted their Level 2 qualifications to subsequent full-time HE acceptances through UCAS (in either 2006/07 or 2007/08). Approximately 70% of students who achieved Level 3 qualifications converted them to HE places. 12 The data shown in Figure 2.2 suggest that around of Northamptonshire s original 2003/04 Key Stage 4 cohort were subsequently accepted on a higher education course aged either 18 (2006/07) or 19 (2007/08), which is similar to the regional average of 31%. 13 One would expect a relationship to exist between levels of attainment at Levels 2 & 3 and subsequent progression rates to higher education and, on the whole, this indeed appears to be the case. because all cohorts are calculated based on where they studied compulsory education. It is not possible to adjust for migration to and from local authorities post-16, although the effect of this on the analysis is likely to be minimal. 12 It should be noted that these figures include vocational Level 3 courses, for which progression rates to HE have historically been significantly lower than academic Level 3 courses. 13 These figures should be treated with caution because they are, in effect, snapshots, and HE participation rates fluctuate from year to year, and thus should not be interpreted in isolation from the other contextual information shown in this report. Page 13 of 32

Section three: Higher education progression trends in Northamptonshire This section updates UCAS accepted applicant trends and uses a variety of indicators, such as Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), Education, Skills & Training (EST), Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI), Participation of Local Area (POLAR2), National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification (NS-SEC), gender, ethnicity and disability to highlight any progress made in terms of widening participation in Northamptonshire. Figure 3.1: Number of accepted UCAS applicants by district and age group, 2001/02 to 2008/09 District age group 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Corby under 20 167 154 162 167 204 196 202 211 20 29 31 38 40 38 38 47 32 49 30+ 9 10 13 9 14 10 8 15 Total 207 202 215 214 256 253 242 275 Daventry under 20 330 350 363 346 394 349 379 398 20 29 91 72 73 56 64 58 79 96 30+ 25 27 20 25 22 19 21 20 Total 446 449 456 427 480 426 479 514 East Northamptonshire under 20 305 307 350 310 370 300 373 350 20 29 51 62 79 61 61 50 63 59 30+ 21 23 26 18 22 15 19 23 Total 377 392 455 389 453 365 455 432 Kettering under 20 334 324 340 318 384 360 359 357 20 29 51 86 60 61 64 67 69 96 30+ 18 18 29 20 23 21 29 22 Total 403 428 429 399 471 448 457 475 Northampton under 20 696 670 725 670 761 672 740 770 20 29 217 228 223 209 236 218 252 272 30+ 86 61 63 66 82 86 90 87 Total 999 959 1,011 945 1,079 976 1,082 1,129 South Northamptonshire under 20 410 411 406 414 470 440 462 503 20 29 66 98 84 68 84 60 83 95 30+ 23 19 24 16 21 18 20 16 Total 499 528 514 498 575 518 565 614 Wellingborough under 20 255 265 272 248 281 254 283 293 20 29 73 64 61 47 62 53 39 79 30+ 32 24 25 35 20 33 25 30 Total 360 353 358 330 363 340 347 402 Northamptonshire under 20 2,497 2,481 2,618 2,473 2,864 2,571 2,798 2,882 20 29 580 648 620 540 609 553 617 746 30+ 214 182 200 189 204 202 212 213 Total 3,291 3,311 3,438 3,202 3,677 3,326 3,627 3,841 Figure 3.1 provides a breakdown of the number of accepted UCAS applicants by age group and district for the years 2001/02 to 2008/09. There was an increase of 5.9% in accepted applicants from Northamptonshire between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry, compared with a 5.7% increase in the East Midlands region as a whole. 14 Over the eight year period 2001/02 to 2008/09, the number of accepted applicants have increased by 16.7%, although those from Corby (32.8%) have increased by considerably greater than this average. Over the last eight years, the 20-29 year old age group had the largest percentage growth (28.6%) in terms of numbers of students accepted on full-time HE courses, which was largely as result of the considerable increase between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry. The number of under 20 year olds has increased by around 15% over the same period. When analysing growth in the number of HE students over time it is very useful to take account of any associated changes in populations. Assuming no other factors, one would expect student numbers to change in line with any fluctuations in the underlying 14 See accompanying regional report for further comparisons. Page 14 of 32

populations. Comparing data from the 2001 census and the most recent mid-year population estimates (provided to Aimhigher in the East Midlands via request to the Office for National Statistics) suggests that the number of 18 year olds residing in Northamptonshire has increased by approximately 17% between 2002 and 2008 - i.e. at a similar rate as the increase in under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants. If this is indeed the case, full-time HE participation rates of young people from Northamptonshire are unlikely to have significantly changed over recent years. If such trends continue, therefore, accepted applicant numbers are likely to decrease when the demographic downturn, forecast from around 2010/11 and set to last for a period of at least ten years, comes to fruition. Figure 3.2: Percentage growth in the number of accepted UCAS applicants by age group: Northamptonshire 35% 25% 15% 10% 5% 0% under 20 20 29 30+ 5% 10% 15% 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Estimated 18 year old population changes 2002 to 2008: +17% Source: 2001 census and 2007 mid-year population estimates by single year of age, provided on request by ONS From an Aimhigher perspective, higher education participation needs to be analysed taking account of the relative trends of advantaged and disadvantaged groups. There are a number of datasets that can be utilised to measure progress towards widening participation, all of which have their strengths and limitations. Recently published national indicators for local authority partnerships include NI106, which refers to young people from low income backgrounds progressing to higher education. 15 This is measured by linking the national pupil dataset with the HESA student record to determine the difference in higher education participation rates of free school meal claimants, and their counterparts not claiming for free school meals. As shown in Figure 3.3, 10% of Northamptonshire s 2001/02 GCSE cohort who claimed free schools meals subsequently studied higher education, compared with 32% of non-fsm claimants. 16 15 See http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/localgovernment/indicatorsdefinitions 16 This only includes students who were on the HESA student record, which does not include students studying higher education courses at further education colleges (unless part of a franchise arrangement with a UK university). Unlike most other methodologies, including those shown in this report, the local authority figures are based on where the student attended school rather than where they resided. Page 15 of 32

Figure 3.3: Proportions of students who were/were not in receipt of FSM aged 15 in 2001/02, who went to an HEI aged 18 in 2004/05 or aged 19 in 2005/06 Source: DIUS (via personal communication) Whilst the limitations of using FSM data to measure attainment and progression trends have already been noted, 17 Figure 3.3 provides a useful indication of the extent of differences in HE participation trends between students from high and low income families. Nevertheless, the figures are not only some years out of date, they provide only a snapshot. Therefore, it is not possible at this stage to measure trends over time, and the analysis has limited value in terms of measuring the progress of widening participation target groups. Commissioned UCAS data can be combined with a variety of other datasets to provide a greater indication of widening participation trends over time. For example, Appendix 3a illustrates the relationship between IMD and progression rates to higher education. Young people from the more deprived areas are considerably less likely to enter full-time HE than their counterparts residing in more affluent neighbourhoods. As illustrated in Figures 3.4 and 3.5, following on from the progress made in previous years there was a small increase in the number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants from the most deprived areas nationally (IMD categories A&B) between 2007/08 and 2008/09, although there was a decrease in the number of those from the next most deprived neighbourhoods (IMD categories C&D). Over the eight year period 2001/02 to 2008/09, the number of students from the most under-represented, hardest to reach areas (categories A&B) increased by the biggest percentage (34.3%), whilst those from IMD categories C-D increased by 12.3%. As noted, It is important to take account of population changes when interpreting percentage growth in student numbers. Latest estimates suggest that the population of 18 year olds residing in IMD categories A-B and C-D areas have both increased by around 10% over the last eight years. Therefore, the growth in the number of young accepted UCAS applicants from deprived areas, particularly those from IMD categories A-B, is considerably greater than the underlying increase in the populations of these areas. The number of students from the less deprived areas of Northamptonshire (IMD categories E-J) has increased by 14.9% over the same period, which is somewhat lower than the increase in the population () of these areas, according to latest estimates. Therefore, whilst, as noted above, there appears to have been little movement in terms of increasing participation, data suggest that participation in Northamptonshire has widened over recent years, using IMD as a measure of disadvantage. 18 17 See pg. 4. 18 A snapshot of 2002 and 2008 UCAS and ONS populations data suggest that there has been an increase of around 5 percentage points (from approx. 10% to 15%) in the participation rate of IMD category A&B areas, and a small increase (approx. 0.5 percentage points) in category C-D neighbourhoods. Category E-J areas appear to have decreased (from around 39% to 37%) over the same period. There are methodological limitations in calculating participation rates, particularly as populations data provided by the ONS are estimations, so caution should be exercised when interpreting these data. Page 16 of 32

Figure 3.4: Number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by national IMD category, 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents % change % change NATIONAL IMD2007 RANKING 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2007 2008 2001 2008 A 10% most deprived LLSOAs in England 17 14 24 22 33 26 36 41 13.9% 141. 2% B 91 72 98 81 90 86 107 104 2.8% 14.3% C 131 97 126 95 117 120 156 130 16.7% 0.8% D 145 177 149 135 172 145 185 180 2.7% 24.1% most deprived areas nationally 384 360 397 333 412 377 484 455 6.0% 18.5% E 137 173 166 172 210 190 171 193 12.9% 40.9% F 158 156 126 138 173 141 157 169 7.6% 7.0% G 227 197 246 198 263 229 223 247 10.8% 8.8% H 383 407 411 410 440 371 456 438 3.9% 14.4% I 656 664 656 653 731 688 718 707 1.5% 7.8% J 10% least deprived LLSOAa in England 552 524 616 569 635 575 589 673 14.3% 21.9% 60% least deprived areas nationally 2,113 2,121 2,221 2,140 2,452 2,194 2,314 2,427 4.9% 14.9% Gra nd Total 2,497 2,481 2,618 2,473 2,864 2,571 2,798 2,882 3.0% 15.4% Figure 3.5: Percentage growth in the number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by IMD: Northamptonshire residents 10% 0% 10% Category A&B areas ( most deprived) Category C&D areas (20 most deprived) Category E J areas (60% least deprived) Estimated 18 year old population changes 2002 to 2008: Cat A-B, +10%; Cat C-D, +10%; Cat E-J, + Source: 2001 census and 2007 mid-year population estimates by single year of age, provided on request by ONS As outlined in HEFCE targeting guidance, Aimhigher target groups include learners who reside in the most deprived areas of the country, hence Figure 3.6 shows the change in the proportion of young accepted applicants from these target areas. As noted, over the last year there was a decrease in the number of young accepted applicants from IMD category C-D areas (20- most deprived areas nationally), hence the overall proportion of under 20 year old accepted applicants from deprived areas decreased. Whilst from a widening participation perspective these figures may suggest that progress is slowing down, the considerable progress made in terms of narrowing the gap in the previous year ought to be considered. For example, in 2008/09 entry, 15.8% of young accepted applicants resided in these most deprived areas, up from 15.4% in 2001/02 and 13.5% in 2004/05. The proportion of students from these Aimhigher target areas peaked in 2007/08 at 17.3% of all young accepted applicants, whilst around of the population of Northamptonshire reside in these areas. Page 17 of 32

Figure 3.6: Change in the proportion of young applicants from most deprived areas nationally: Northamptonshire residents 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% Proportion of under 20 year old accepted applicants from most deprived IMD areas nationally 13% NB approximately of 18 year olds reside in the most deprived areas (Source: Adapted from mid -year population estimates by single year of age data provided via request to the Office for National Statistics) An increasing number of Aimhigher partnerships use the Education, Skills and Training (EST) domain in addition to the full deprivation index, to provide further context to educational disadvantages in their local area. A considerably greater proportion of the population of Northamptonshire reside in areas of EST deprivation (approx. 44%) than IMD deprivation (approx ), hence the greater number of young accepted applicants from the most deprived EST areas shown in Figure 3.7. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the relationship between EST deprivation and under-representation in higher education is even more prominent than using IMD criteria (see Appendices 3a and 3b). Indeed, young people from the most deprived EST areas are around five times less likely to progress to HE than their counterparts residing in the least deprived EST areas. The number of young accepted UCAS applicants from the most EST deprived areas decreased between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry, whilst those from EST categories C-D and E-J increased. It is important to take a longer-term view, however, and over the eight years there was a 28.8% increase in students from EST categories A-B, which again was well in excess of the associated populations (Figure 3.8). Figure 3.7: Number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by national Education, Skills & Training (EST) category, 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents % change % change NATIONAL EST2007 RANKING 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2007 2008 2001 2008 A 10% most deprived LLSOAs in England 102 86 108 97 112 91 139 137 1.4% 34.3% B 138 130 143 133 177 166 193 172 10.9% 24.6% C 163 158 182 135 168 173 160 201 25.6% 23.3% D 232 241 241 199 277 221 255 244 4.3% 5.2% most deprived areas nationally 635 615 674 564 734 651 747 754 0.9% 18.7% E 234 219 213 229 257 204 245 219 10.6% 6.4% F 218 238 236 239 296 245 262 271 3.4% 24.3% G 388 373 404 370 385 364 394 385 2.3% 0.8% H 476 447 476 472 487 492 497 528 6.2% 10.9% I 379 431 428 426 505 427 453 511 12.8% 34.8% J 10% least deprived LLSOAa in England 167 158 187 173 200 188 200 214 7.0% 28.1% 60% least deprived areas nationally 1,862 1,866 1,944 1,909 2,130 1,920 2,051 2,128 3.8% 14.3% Gr and Total 2,497 2,481 2,618 2,473 2,864 2,571 2,798 2,882 3.0% 15.4% Page 18 of 32

Figure 3.8: Percentage growth in the number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by EST: Northamptonshire residents 10% 0% Category A&B areas ( most deprived) Category C&D areas (20 most deprived) Category E J areas (60% least deprived) 10% Estimated 18 year old population changes 2002 to 2008: Cat A-B, +8%; Cat C-D, +15%; Cat E-J, +21% Source: 2001 census and 2007 mid-year population estimates by single year of age, provided on request by ONS Figure 3.9: Change in the proportion of young applicants from most deprived EST areas nationally: Northamptonshire residents 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% Proportion of under 20 year old accepted applicants from most deprived EST areas nationally 22% NB approximately 44% of 18 year olds reside in the most deprived areas (Source: Adapted from mid -year population estimates by single year of age data provided via request to the Office for National Statistics) As shown in Figure 3.9, the proportion of young accepted applicants who were from areas falling within the most educationally deprived nationally has fluctuated over the years. In 2004/05 entry, students from these areas reached a low of 22.8% of Northamptonshire s total number of accepted applicants, following a significant decrease over 2003/04 numbers. In 2008/09 entry, students from these areas Page 19 of 32

accounted for 26.2%, whilst approximately 44% of the 18 year old population of Northamptonshire reside in these neighbourhoods. Figure 3.10: Number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by national Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) category, 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents % change % change NATIONAL IDACI2007 RANKING 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2007 2008 2001 2008 A 10% most deprived LLSOAs in England 17 21 23 22 30 24 33 28 15.2% 64.7% B 91 59 101 91 83 88 108 107 0.9% 17.6% C 102 112 118 99 135 110 160 131 18.1% 28.4% D 124 101 134 103 151 132 155 147 5.2% 18.5% most deprived areas nationally 334 293 376 315 399 354 456 413 9.4% 23.7% E 188 203 170 163 207 201 205 220 7.3% 17.0% F 194 208 179 175 218 193 189 221 16.9% 13.9% G 251 262 247 270 286 254 257 259 0.8% 3.2% H 355 325 389 329 408 351 380 385 1.3% 8.5% I 628 641 654 630 719 642 698 716 2.6% 14.0% J 10% least deprived LLSOAa in England 547 549 603 591 627 576 613 668 9.0% 22.1% 60% least deprived areas nationally 2,163 2,188 2,242 2,158 2,465 2,217 2,342 2,469 5.4% 14.1% Grand Total 2,497 2,481 2,618 2,473 2,864 2,571 2,798 2,882 3.0% 15.4% Figure 3.11: Percentage growth in the number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by IDACI: Northamptonshire residents 10% 0% 10% Category A&B areas ( most deprived) Category C&D areas (20 most deprived) Category E J areas (60% least deprived) Estimated 18 year old population changes 2002 to 2008: Cat A-B, +8%; Cat C-D, +16%; Cat E-J, +19% Source: 2001 census and 2007 mid-year population estimates by single year of age, provided on request by ONS As well as IMD and EST indicators, a growing number of organisations, including local authorities and HEFCE, are using Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) data to identify areas of differing levels of child poverty. As is the case with all geographically based indicators, the IDACI is very much an average for the neighbourhood (LSOA) as a whole, and there are likely to be pockets of deprivation in relatively affluent areas, and vice versa. Nevertheless, as shown in Appendix 3c, there is a clear relationship between the IDACI category young people live in, and the likelihood of them entering higher education. Figure 3.10 shows the number of under 20 year olds accepted on a HE course through UCAS Page 20 of 32

by their IDACI deprivation category. Between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry there was a decrease of 9.4% in the number of young accepted UCAS applicants from the most deprived areas according to IDACI criteria. However, reflecting IMD and EST trends, over the eight year period, the percentage growth in the number of accepted applicants from these income deprived areas (25.0% Cat A-B; 23.0% Cat C-D) was considerably higher than underlying increases in the young population (8% Cat A-B; 16% Cat C-D) over this period (Figure 3.11). Again, despite the fluctuations illustrated in Figure 3.12, this suggests that over the longer-term, widening participation target groups have been increasingly likely to enter full-time higher education. Conversely, the percentage growth in student numbers in the less deprived areas (Cat E-J) was lower than the associated population increases of these neighbourhoods. Figure 3.12: Change in the proportion of young applicants from most deprived IDACI areas nationally: Northamptonshire residents 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% Proportion of under 20 year old accepted applicants from most deprived IDACI areas nationally 11% NB approximately 29% of 18 year olds reside in the most deprived areas (Source: Adapted from mid -year population estimates by single year of age data provided via request to the Office for National Statistics) Although there is certainly a correlation between various criteria of disadvantage and participation rates in higher education, there may be some relatively affluent areas with low participation rates in higher education. Similarly, there may be deprived areas that have relatively high levels of participation in HE. Unlike other measures of disadvantage, POLAR2 data calculates areas with differing levels of participation in higher education irrespective of other factors, and offers a useful indication of underrepresented areas. Appendix 1d shows the relationship between POLAR2 participation quintiles and the estimated HE participation rates using UCAS and ONS populations data. As would be expected, the participation rates increase across each of the five quintiles. Figure 3.13: Number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by national POLAR2 young HE participation quintiles, 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents % change % change POLAR2 YPR QUINTILE 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2007 2008 2001 2008 Quintile 1 (Lowest) 262 251 285 247 308 278 370 350 5.4% 33.6% Quintile 2 365 384 411 366 451 376 462 432 6.5% 18.4% Lowest 2 YPR quintiles 627 635 696 613 759 654 832 782 6.0% 24.7% Quintile 3 588 576 615 579 690 582 618 638 3.2% 8.5% Quintile 4 702 666 697 688 772 740 725 788 8.7% 12.3% Quintile 5 (Highest) 580 604 610 593 643 595 623 674 8.2% 16.2% Highest 3 YPR quintiles 1,870 1,846 1,922 1,860 2,105 1,917 1,966 2,100 6.8% 12.3% Grand Total 2,497 2,481 2,618 2,473 2,864 2,571 2,798 2,882 3.0% 15.4% Page 21 of 32

Figure 3.14: Percentage growth in the number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by POLAR2 young HE participation areas: Northamptonshire residents 10% POLAR2 YPR Quintile 1 areas POLAR2 YPR Quintile 2 areas POLAR2 YPR Quintile 3 5 areas 0% 10% Estimated 18 year old population changes 2002 to 2008: Quintile 1, +12%; Quintile 2, +16%; Quintile 3-5, +19% Source: 2001 census and 2007 mid-year population estimates by single year of age, provided on request by ONS Figure 3.15: Change in the proportion of young applicants from POLAR2 low young HE participation areas: Northamptonshire residents 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% Proportion of under 20 year old accepted applicants in lowest 2 YPR quintiles (POLAR2) 24% NB approximately 43% of 18 year olds reside in lowest 2 YPR quintiles (POLAR2). (Source: Adapted from mid -year population estimates by single year of age data provided via request to the Office for National Statistics) Over the last year, there was a decrease of 6.0% in the number of young accepted UCAS applicants from areas under-represented in higher education (POLAR2 quintiles 1 & 2), compared with a 6.8% increase in the other neighbourhoods in Northamptonshire (POLAR2 quintiles 3-5), hence the steep drop illustrated in Figure 3.15. However, taking a longer-term view, the increases in students from POLAR2 quintiles 1 and 2 of 33.6% and 18.4% respectively were again considerably higher than those from quintiles 3-5 (12.3%). Mirroring trends using the other geographical proxies (IMD, EST & IDACI), the increase in students from the most disadvantaged areas (quintile 1) accepting HE places over the last eight years Page 22 of 32

has been at a considerably greater rate than the population growth of these areas. This further indicates that the gap between advantaged and disadvantaged areas in terms of higher education opportunities has narrowed over recent years, 19 despite the apparent downturn between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry. The indicators highlighted so far in this section of the report have been geographically based and do not directly relate to individual students. Whilst, as illustrated in Appendices 3a to 3d, there is clearly a correlation between these measures of disadvantage and the likelihood of young people entering higher education, there are likely to be pockets of advantage in relatively deprived areas, and pockets of disadvantage in relatively affluent areas. National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification (NS-SEC) data is highlighted in HEFCE targeting guidance as one of the most important widening participation indicators and, unlike postcode based geographical data, can be linked to individual students based on parental occupation. Whilst there are numerous methodological limitations with the NS-SEC methodology for measuring trends in higher education participation, 20 it appears to be HEFCE s preferred method for determining the success, or otherwise, of widening participation initiatives on the macro scale. Figure 3.16: Number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by National Statistics Socio- Economic Classification (NS-SEC), 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents Number of under 20 year-old accepted applicants % increase % increase NS-SEC Classification 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 07/08-08/09 01/02-08/09 NS SEC7: Routine occupations 136 121 152 131 135 122 147 150 2.0% 10.3% NS SEC6: Semi routine occupations 199 223 238 229 259 227 235 282 20.0% 41.7% NS SEC5: Lower supervisory and technical occupations 131 114 102 110 112 114 106 112 5.7% -14.5% NS SEC4: Small employers and own account workers 140 151 171 147 166 161 153 162 5.9% 15.7% NS SEC 4 7: Lower Socio Economic Groups 606 609 663 617 672 624 641 706 10.1% 16.5% NS SEC3: Intermediate occupations 217 277 261 260 300 258 288 281-2.4% 29.5% NS SEC2: Lower managerial and professional occupations 827 800 827 765 858 764 810 814 0.5% -1.6% NS SEC1: Higher managerial and professional occupations 618 571 587 580 625 537 607 591-2.6% -4.4% NS SEC 1 3: Higher Socio Economic Groups 1,662 1,648 1,675 1,605 1,783 1,559 1,705 1,686-1.1% 1.4% NS SEC Unknown 229 224 280 251 409 388 452 490 8.4% 114.0% Total 2,497 2,481 2,618 2,473 2,864 2,571 2,798 2,882 3.0% 15.4% Figure 3.17: Change in the proportion of young applicants in lowest socio-economic groups: Northamptonshire residents 29% 28% 27% Proportion of under 20 year old accepted applicants from NS SEC 4 7 26% NB approximately 51% of the working age population of Northamptonshire according to 2001 census were classified in NS-SEC groups 4-7. Source: Adapted from 2001 census data Table KS14a www.census.ac.uk 19 A snapshot of 2002 and 2008 UCAS and ONS populations data suggest that participation rates of young people from POLAR2 quintile 1 has increased by almost 4 percentage points (from 15.3% to 19.0%) whilst quintile 2 rates remained similar (approx. 23%). Participation rates of quintile 3-5 wards appear to have decreased, from 41.3% in 2002 to 39.5% in 2008. There are methodological limitations in calculating participation rates, particularly as populations data provided by the ONS are estimations, so caution should be exercised when interpreting these data. 20 For example, see Ramsden, 2005, http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/research/data/uploadfiles/rr676.pdf pgs. 24-35 Page 23 of 32

National analyses 21 show that young people from NS-SEC groups 4-7 are considerably less likely to enter full-time higher education than those from NS-SEC categories 1-3, 22 hence the former being identified (along with NS-SEC 8 unclassified) as Aimhigher target groups in the HEFCE targeting guidance. As shown in Figure 3.16, it can be misleading to show trends in terms of raw numbers from different socio-economic groups, because the biggest growth over recent years has been in the unknown category, in which young accepted applicants have more than doubled since 2001/02. When discounting the unknown classifications, there has been a considerable increase in the proportion of students from the lowest socio-economic groups 4-7 between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry, which somewhat contradicts the findings using the geographical proxies of disadvantage. In 2001/02, these groups accounted for 26.7% of all young accepted UCAS applicants, compared with 29.5% for 2008/09 entry, with, as suggested, much of this increase coming in the last year (Figure 3.17). Therefore, mirroring trends using IMD, EST, IDACI and POLAR2 criteria, over the longer-term students from low socio-economic groups are increasingly likely to progress to higher education. According to 2001 census data, around 51% of the population of Northamptonshire are classified in the lower socio-economic groups NS-SEC 4-7. Unfortunately, at the time of writing more up to date data on population trends by socio-economic group are not available, hence it is not possible to estimate changes in participation rates. Nevertheless, from a widening participation perspective, the considerable increase in the number and proportion of students from more disadvantaged backgrounds according to the NS-SEC methodology is encouraging. Figure 3.18: Number of under accepted UCAS applicants by gender (all ages), 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents N u m b e r U C A S 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 o f a c c e p t e d a p p l i c a n t s 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Under 20 20 29 30+ Under 20 20 29 30+ Under 20 20 29 30+ Under 20 20 29 30+ Under 20 20 29 30+ Under 20 20 29 30+ Under 20 20 29 30+ Under 20 20 29 30+ Female Male 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Age group / year of entry Research has shown that males from Northamptonshire, as elsewhere in the country, are considerably under-represented in higher education. 23 Since entry to the 2001/02 academic year, UCAS data suggest that this gender gap has widened. Indeed, males accounted for 43.5% of Northamptonshire s accepted 21 See http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/research/data/uploadfiles/rr806.pdf 22 Due to lack of available data, it has not been possible to replicate such analysis on a regional or sub-regional basis. 23 For a literature review referring to the gender gap in educational attainment and progression see http://www.actiononaccess.org/download.php?f=1205 Page 24 of 32

UCAS applicants for 2008/09 entry, compared with a 46.7% share at the start of the eight year period. Between 2001/02 and 2008/09 entry, the number of under 20 year old female entrants have increased from 1,340 to 1,610, an increase of 20.1%. During the same eight year period, male acceptances increased by 9.9%, from 1,157 to 1,272 (Figures 3.18 & 3.19). Figure 3.19: Percentage growth in the number of under 20 year old accepted UCAS applicants by gender: Northamptonshire residents 25% 15% 10% 5% Female Male 0% 5% 10% 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Figure 3.20 provides an eight year trend of accepted applicants from Northamptonshire by ethnicity. In 2001/02 Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) students accounted for 9.6% of Northamptonshire s accepted applicants, which increased to 13.2% by 2008/09 entry. There have been noticeable increases in Black African and Mixed ethnic group students over recent years. Of course, these changing trends may be, at least partly, reflecting demographic changes in terms of increases or decreases in the populations of different ethnic groups. Figure 3.20: Number of accepted UCAS applicants by ethnic group (all age groups), 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents Ethnic Group 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Asian Bangladeshi 17 20 23 23 16 20 33 25 Asian Chinese 27 36 42 40 35 20 31 34 Asian Indian 110 122 110 92 127 111 117 109 Asian Pakistani 16 16 9 19 15 19 16 16 Asian Other 15 12 15 16 15 23 7 15 Total Asian 185 206 199 190 208 193 204 199 Black African 20 33 43 41 60 78 96 115 Black Caribbean 25 25 29 26 26 29 38 35 Black Other 10 5 10 9 10 10 15 9 Total Black 55 63 82 76 96 117 149 159 Mixed White and Black African 8 11 6 10 8 7 10 7 Mixed White and Black Caribbean 16 12 16 20 26 22 34 47 Mixed White and Asian 19 28 20 18 32 26 26 36 Mixed Other 10 28 27 17 33 21 19 38 Total Mixed Ethnic Group 53 79 69 65 99 76 89 128 White 2,813 2,775 2,893 2,710 3,168 2,822 3,060 3,255 Other Ethnic Background 6 11 16 12 14 10 14 10 Unknown Ethnic Group 179 177 179 149 92 108 111 90 Total accepted applicants 3,291 3,311 3,438 3,202 3,677 3,326 3,627 3,841 Page 25 of 32

An eight year time series of accepted applicant numbers by declared disability is shown in Figure 3.21. There was a slight decrease in students declaring a disability between 2007/07 and 2008/09 entry. Those declaring a disability accounted for 4.4% of all accepted applicants for 2008/09 entry. Figure 3.21: Number of accepted UCAS applicants by declared disability (all age groups), 2001/02 to 2008/09: Northamptonshire residents 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Declared Disability 165 171 193 153 198 167 184 170 No Declared Disability 3,126 3,140 3,245 3,049 3,479 3,159 3,443 3,671 Grand Total 3,291 3,311 3,438 3,202 3,677 3,326 3,627 3,841 Page 26 of 32

Conclusion This report has provided an update of some of the key data analyses provided in earlier research publications concerning attainment, post-16 progression and higher education participation trends in Northamptonshire. Data analyses are necessarily aggregated and are not directly linked to specific individuals, and the report does not attempt to find a statistical causal link between participation in the Aimhigher programme and any changes in educational attainment and progression. However, by analysing the data using a variety of socio-economic criteria - the same criteria that Aimhigher partnerships use to target students at an area and learner level - the report provides an important indication of progress made in terms of increasing the educational opportunities of disadvantaged groups. Much of the analyses in this report, summarised below, have indicated that real progress is being made, despite an apparent decrease in young accepted UCAS applicants from deprived, under-represented areas over the last year. Taking a long-term view, evidence suggests that the gap between advantaged and disadvantaged WP target groups in Northamptonshire has narrowed over recent years, as we strive towards a more equal education system. Key findings Compulsory education attainment and post-16 progression trends in Northamptonshire There was an increase in the percentage of Northamptonshire s Key Stage 4 pupils achieving five or more A*Cs or equivalent (Level 2) qualifications. Key Stage 4 performance of students studying in Northamptonshire has somewhat fallen behind the average for the East Midlands region and the country as a whole over recent years. Pupils studying in Northampton and Wellingborough schools had the lowest rates of Level 2 attainment in Northamptonshire, whilst those studying in South Northamptonshire and Daventry had the highest. The percentage of boys achieving 5+ A*-Cs (or equivalent) has increased at a greater rate than girls over the last few years, hence the gender gap is showing signs of narrowing. Black students continue to have the lowest rates of attainment at Key Stage 4, although their performance has improved considerably over the last three years. Asian students have consistently been the highest performing ethnic group in Northamptonshire. There is little evidence of progress towards closing the attainment gap between advantaged and disadvantaged groups, according to both free school meals (FSM) and Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) criteria. According to latest data, the proportion of Northamptonshire s compulsory schools leavers (in 2006) staying on in education and work-based learning (WBL) remained the same as the previous year, and was slightly lower than the regional average. The percentage of Northamptonshire s Key Stage 4 pupils subsequently achieving Level 3 qualifications was similar to the regional average. This was reflected in the progression rates to higher education. Higher education progression trends in Northamptonshire There was a modest increase in the number of accepted UCAS applicants for 2008/09 entry, similar to the regional average increase. Over the eight years 2001/02 to 2008/09, the number of accepted applicants from Corby increased by the greatest proportion. Page 27 of 32

According to Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), Education, Skills & Training (EST), Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI), and Participation of Local Areas (POLAR2) data, the number and proportion of young accepted applicants from disadvantaged areas decreased between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry. However, taking a longer-term view, the growth in students from WP target areas was considerably greater than those from less deprived neighbourhoods. The increase in young accepted applicants from deprived, underrepresented areas between 2001/02 and 2008/09 entry was well in excess of the underlying increases in the populations of these neighbourhoods, which was not the case for less deprived areas. Whilst there appears to have been little movement in terms of increasing HE participation in Northamptonshire, there are clear signs that participation has widened over recent years. The proportion of accepted applicants from the lowest socio-economic groups (NS-SEC 4-7) increased considerably between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry, contradicting the findings using the geographical proxies of disadvantage. Nevertheless, over the longer-term, an increasing proportion of students from both lower socio economic groups and those residing in deprived areas have been accepted on full-time HE courses. Since 2001//02, the gender gap in higher education has widened, with little sign that it is beginning to narrow. The proportion of accepted UCAS applicants of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) background, and Black African students in particular, have increased considerably over recent years. There was a slight decrease in accepted applicants who declared a disability between 2007/08 and 2008/09 entry. Page 28 of 32

Appendix1a: Percentage of pupils at the end of key stage 4 attaining 5 or more A*-C GCSEs or equivalent, by LA 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 45% 35% Lincolnshire Rutland Leicestershire England Derby Derbyshire East Midlands Nottinghamshire Northamptonshire Nottingham Leicester 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Appendix 1b: Percentage of pupils at the end of key stage 4 attaining 5 or more A*-C GCSEs or equivalent including A*-C in English & Maths GCSE, by LA 60% 55% 45% 35% 25% Rutland Lincolnshire Leicestershire Derby Derbyshire England East Midlands Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire Leicester Nottingham 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/db/sfr/index.shtml Page 29 of 32

APPENDIX 2: Key stage 4 attainment trends of Aimhigher Northamptonshire s priority schools % achieving 5+ A*-C GCSEs or equivalent % achieving 5+ A*-C GCSEs incl. English & maths School 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Abbeyfield from Sept 08 (formerly Mereway) 38% 33% 39% 31% 27% 27% 27% 23% 29% Corby Business Academy Not applicable - school opened after Jan 2008 Danetre 44% 44% 52% 60% 63% 37% 32% 34% 46% Daventry William Parker 38% 52% 43% 61% 27% 42% 36% 47% Huxlow Science College 45% 61% 63% 57% 65% 35% 52% 57% 49% Ise 27% 37% 39% 46% 12% 18% 26% 27% 36% Kingsthorpe College 35% 39% 39% 38% 28% 27% 29% 26% 16% Kingswood 48% 58% 55% 55% 26% 29% 27% 28% 31% Latimer Arts College 63% 60% 63% 60% 57% 46% 56% 43% 43% Lodge Park 63% 71% 62% 64% 70% 26% 28% 34% 37% Montagu 23% 29% 38% 46% 29% 21% 16% 37% Rushden Community College 37% 35% 36% 41% 26% 32% 33% 31% 32% Sir Christopher Hatton 56% 58% 59% 57% 53% 49% 55% 54% 42% 39% The Duston School 43% 36% 33% 36% 38% 29% 25% 27% 31% 35% The Northampton Academy N/A 34% 33% 43% N/A 18% 24% 22% 26% Thomas Becket Catholic School 26% 32% 29% 48% 39% 41% 37% 39% 35% Unity College N/A 21% 28% 38% N/A 15% 21% 22% Weavers 27% 19% 17% 32% 39% 22% 14% 12% 24% 23% Weston Favell 28% 28% 34% 27% 26% 22% 19% 27% 17% 17% Wrenn 48% 46% 58% 52% 53% 33% 33% 33% 37% 32% All Northamptonshire LA schools 51% 52% 54% 55% 60% 39% 42% 42% 45% Page 30 of 32

APPENDIX 3: ESTIMATED YOUNG HE PARTICIPATION RATES BY SOCIO-ECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC AND EDUCATIONAL CRITERIA Appendix 3a: Estimated HE participation rates by national Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) category: Northamptonshire residents 45% 35% 25% 15% 10% 5% Percentage of estimated 18 year old population accepted on HE course in 2007/08 (aged 18) or 2008/09 (aged 19) 0% A 10% most IMD deprived LSOAs in England B C D E F G H I J 10% least IMD Less deprivedareas deprived LSOAs in England Source: this and all subsequent estimated HE participation rates adapted from commissioned East Midlands UCAS data combined with mid-year 2006 population estimates by single year of age and LSOA (via personal request to Office for National Statistics) Figure 3b: Estimated HE participation rates by national Education, Skills and Training (EST) domain: Northamptonshire residents 70% 60% 10% Percentage of estimated 18 year old population accepted on HE course in 2007/08 (aged 18) or 2008/09 (aged 19) 0% A 10% most EST deprived LSOAs in England B C D E F G H I J 10% least EST Less deprived areas deprived LSOAs in England Page 31 of 32

Appendix 3c: Estimated HE participation rates by national Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI): Northamptonshire residents 45% 35% 25% 15% 10% 5% Percentage of estimated 18 year old population accepted on HE course in 2007/08 (aged 18) or 2008/09 (aged 19) 0% A 10% most IDACI deprived LSOAs in England B C D E F G H I J 10% least IDACI Less deprived areas deprived LSOAs in England Appendix 3de: Estimated HE participation rates by national POLAR2 Young Participation Quintiles: Northamptonshire residents 60% Percentage of estimated 18 year old population accepted on HE course in 2007/08 (aged 18) or 2008/09 (aged 19) 10% 0% Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Page 32 of 32

For further information contact: Michael Kerrigan Aimhigher in the East Midlands Loughborough University LE11 3TU Tel: 01509 223460 Email: m.d.kerrigan@lboro.ac.uk