Quarterly Report 4Q13

Eagle Mountain- Saginaw Independent School District Quarterly Report 4Q13 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions Texas nonfarm employment growth was up 2.3% in 4Q13, well above the U.S. increase of 1.5%. (BLS/TWC) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7 consecutive years. (State Comptrollers Office) Texas $18.7 billion in exports for November 2013 represented more than 18% of all U.S. exports, a percentage that has steadily increasing since 2009. (Census Bureau and Wisertrade) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (December 2013) - U.S. 6.5% - Texas 5.6% - DFW MSA 5.4% - Tarrant County 5.3% GE Transportation is adding 220 new high tech jobs to the North Fort Worth locomotive plant in 2014. Lockheed Martin s recent new F-35 deal could lead to more than 2,400 new manufacturing jobs over the next several years. DFW builders put up 21,236 new homes in 2013, a 19% increase over 2012. (Metrostudy)

National Economic Overview Texas has 4 of the top 10 fastest growing MSAs! 1. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos TX 2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 3. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4. Raleigh-Cary, NC 5. Salt Lake City, UT 6. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellvue, WA 7. Provo-Orem, UT 8. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 9. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 10. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Source: Forbes

Texas Economic Overview Texas Energy is Key to Growth Oil and natural gas production tax collections for the first 3 months of fiscal 2014 were 40% higher than during the same period in 2013. After a high of $145.29 per barrel in July 2008 and a low of $33.98 in Feb. 2009, crude oil futures settled at $98.77 on Dec. 19, 2013. After a high of $13.58 per MMBtu in July 2008 then a low of $2.51 in Sept. 2009, natural gas futures settled at $4.46 on Dec. 19, 2013.

DFW Economic Overview Annualized Job Creation (83,700 November 2013 year over year) -0.2% Texas Oil & Gas Production (Fiscal 1Q14 year over year) Average Home Price ($226,000) -26% 2.7% Unemployment (5.4% December 2013 year over year) 10% 40% Home Inventory (2.6 Month s Supply) Source: Milken Institute

Annual Starts & Closings DFW Housing Market Single Family Homes: Starts & Closes 60,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 21,135 19,772 10,000-4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13

DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Dec-13 % Change YTD Sales 88,562 17% Average Price $226,005 10% Median Price $174,000 11% Listings 19,100-13% DOM 59-19% Months Supply 2.6-26% Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 4Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,931 2,704 3,794 8,935 2 Northwest ISD 1,266 1,187 1,717 21,974 3 Denton ISD 1,300 1,152 2,510 13,902 4 Lewisville ISD 965 904 1,733 2,911 5 Dallas ISD 961 894 2,207 7,333 6 Prosper ISD 942 801 1,561 15,686 7 Keller ISD 857 795 1,216 3,217 8 McKinney ISD 678 718 1,238 7,203 9 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD 733 707 1,515 19,968 10 Mansfield ISD 594 610 745 5,547 11 Little Elm ISD 569 599 793 6,691 12 Allen ISD 597 581 861 1,251 13 Rockwall ISD 562 505 1,639 8,186 14 Plano ISD 400 422 778 1,631 15 Forney ISD 434 403 1,331 11,477 16 Crowley ISD 358 386 1,762 8,276 17 Burleson ISD 401 371 873 3,429 18 Wylie ISD 336 367 794 5,079 19 Fort Worth ISD 358 361 999 4,567 20 Midlothian ISD 337 325 925 14,547 Totals 21,236 20,019 46,087 280,066

Foreclosures

New Housing Activity Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD Starts 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Closings 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 194 149 167 118 125 111 1Q 282 207 95 123 138 144 2Q 288 146 177 121 148 253 2Q 298 187 161 130 141 199 3Q 285 192 112 122 196 193 3Q 302 244 193 131 164 170 4Q 177 164 144 144 168 176 4Q 293 214 136 131 150 194 Total 944 651 600 505 637 733 Total 1,175 852 585 515 593 707 Annual Starts are up over 700 units for the first time since 2008, up 15.5% over 2012. Closings for 2013 are up 19.7% over last year Annualized Inventory was 330 units for 2013, a 5.6 month s supply.

Annual Closing Distribution 4Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Quarter Annual Rank Subdivision Starts Starts Closings Quarter Closings 1 Santa Fe Trails (Ft Worth North) 69 17 65 24 2 Marine Creek Ranch (Greenfield) 49 11 63 23 3 Twin Mills (Ft Worth) 69 16 63 17 4 Ridgeview Farms 58 15 59 16 5 Marine Creek Ranch (Parkview) 100 19 50 17 6 LakePointe 33 3 44 5 7 Quail Grove 37 11 43 11 8 Liberty Crossing (Ft. Worth) 20 0 32 6 9 Marine Creek Hills 23 7 28 9 10 Terrace Landing 42 13 28 10 TOTALS 500 112 475 138

Vacant Developed Lots 4Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q13 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Resort on Eagle Mountain Lake 198 160 2 Eagle Mountain Ranch - Lake Pointe 128 648 3 Marine Creek Ranch (Parkview) 123 866 4 Marine Creek Ranch (Greenfield) 116 0 5 Twin Mills (Ft Worth) 88 503 6 Terrace Landing 72 95 7 Meadow Lakes (Ft. Worth) 69 192 8 LakePointe 63 607 9 Innisbrook Place 57 98 10 Santa Fe Trails (Ft Worth North) 54 393 TOTALS 968 3,562

Future Lots 4Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Chapel Hill (Ft Worth) 35 4,713 2 Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (EMSISD) 0 3,523 3 Water's Bend/Fossil Park 42 942 4 Liberty Crossing (Ft. Worth) 4 912 5 Marine Creek Ranch (Parkview) 123 866 6 Bar C Ranch 21 857 7 Boswell Meadows 3 707 8 Eagle Mountain Ranch - Lake Pointe 128 648 9 LakePointe 63 607 10 Stone Creek Ranch 18 600 TOTALS 437 14,375

Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Inventory VDL Future BRYSON 3 0 5 0 4 6 976 CHISHOLM RIDGE 69 17 65 24 30 54 759 COMANCHE SPRINGS 121 27 160 36 48 104 3391 EAGLE MOUNTAIN 83 27 70 20 47 424 9597 ELKINS 34 9 39 10 18 71 1179 GILILLAND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GREENFIELD 57 13 79 25 18 201 192 HIGH COUNTRY 19 4 21 7 4 26 257 LAKE POINTE 177 41 156 36 72 398 2054 NORTHBROOK 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 PARKVIEW 143 32 82 27 89 216 1294 REMINGTON POINT 16 6 10 6 8 5 0 SAGINAW 2 0 5 0 0 10 0 WILLOW CREEK 9 0 13 3 2 0 269 Grand Total 733 176 707 194 341 1,515 19,968 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

Enrollment History Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2009/10 1,244 1,326 1,313 1,304 1,280 1,298 1,251 1,188 1,281 1,374 1,056 868 826 16,085 807 5.28% 2010/11 1,358 1,338 1,356 1,296 1,279 1,369 1,324 1,269 1,226 1,410 1,191 968 850 16,716 631 3.92% 2011/12 1,381 1,367 1,361 1,389 1,341 1,289 1,402 1,331 1,292 1,281 1,301 1,051 847 17,118 402 2.40% 2012/13 1,437 1,448 1,364 1,360 1,395 1,354 1,337 1,401 1,349 1,399 1,249 1,214 935 17,731 613 3.58% 2013/14 1,419 1,482 1,414 1,390 1,358 1,431 1,418 1,365 1,395 1,434 1,367 1,195 1,077 18,154 423 2.39% Cohort Analysis cohort K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 2009 0.989 1.054 1.053 1.064 1.005 1.045 1.049 1.026 1.041 1.175 0.856 0.864 0.985 2010 1.092 1.076 1.023 0.987 0.981 1.070 1.020 1.014 1.032 1.101 0.867 0.917 0.979 2011 1.017 1.007 1.017 1.024 1.035 1.008 1.024 1.005 1.018 1.045 0.923 0.882 0.875 2012 1.041 1.049 0.998 0.999 1.004 1.010 1.037 0.999 1.014 1.083 0.975 0.933 0.890 2013 0.987 1.031 0.977 1.019 0.999 1.026 1.047 1.021 0.996 1.063 0.977 0.957 0.887 Roll-up Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Roll-up 1,419 1,419 1,482 1,414 1,390 1,358 1,431 1,418 1,365 1,395 1,434 1,367 1,195 18,576 422 1-year cohort 1,401 1,463 1,447 1,441 1,388 1,393 1,499 1,448 1,359 1,483 1,401 1,308 1,060 18,580 426 3 year Avg Co 1,490 1,481 1,501 1,419 1,399 1,397 1,470 1,427 1,394 1,501 1,321 1,245 1,093 18,627 473

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2009/10 1,244 1,326 1,313 1,304 1,280 1,298 1,251 1,188 1,281 1,374 1,056 868 826 16,085 807 5.28% 2010/11 1,358 1,338 1,356 1,296 1,279 1,369 1,324 1,269 1,226 1,410 1,191 968 850 16,716 631 3.92% 2011/12 1,381 1,367 1,361 1,389 1,341 1,289 1,402 1,331 1,292 1,281 1,301 1,051 847 17,118 402 2.40% 2012/13 1,437 1,448 1,364 1,360 1,395 1,354 1,337 1,401 1,349 1,399 1,249 1,214 935 17,731 613 3.58% 2013/14 1,419 1,482 1,414 1,390 1,358 1,431 1,418 1,365 1,395 1,434 1,367 1,195 1,077 18,154 423 2.39% 2014/15 1,446 1,481 1,507 1,437 1,424 1,383 1,481 1,454 1,387 1,503 1,355 1,284 1,088 18,640 486 2.68% 2015/16 1,486 1,506 1,505 1,528 1,461 1,453 1,428 1,509 1,477 1,495 1,420 1,268 1,176 19,121 481 2.58% 2016/17 1,524 1,549 1,523 1,532 1,551 1,493 1,508 1,459 1,542 1,593 1,416 1,331 1,185 19,615 493 2.58% 2017/18 1,570 1,610 1,579 1,553 1,561 1,594 1,554 1,540 1,484 1,660 1,507 1,327 1,244 20,192 577 2.94% 2018/19 1,615 1,654 1,645 1,614 1,586 1,607 1,654 1,586 1,568 1,598 1,570 1,411 1,240 20,758 566 2.80% 2019/20 1,664 1,708 1,694 1,683 1,649 1,628 1,672 1,689 1,616 1,688 1,513 1,471 1,319 21,403 645 3.11% 2020/21 1,701 1,759 1,749 1,734 1,722 1,695 1,694 1,707 1,717 1,739 1,597 1,417 1,375 22,016 613 2.86% 2021/22 1,748 1,800 1,801 1,792 1,774 1,771 1,763 1,729 1,738 1,847 1,645 1,496 1,325 22,638 622 2.82% 2022/23 1,797 1,852 1,845 1,847 1,834 1,826 1,842 1,800 1,760 1,869 1,747 1,541 1,399 23,368 730 3.23% 2023/24 1,851 1,904 1,899 1,893 1,893 1,887 1,899 1,880 1,833 1,893 1,768 1,636 1,441 24,086 718 3.07% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus HISTORY ENROLLMENT PROJECTS Campus Name Capacity 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 HAFLEY DEVELOPMENT CENTER 300 309 292 292 292 292 292 292 292 292 292 292 292 BRYSON ELEMENTARY 675 515 511 522 533 536 546 533 536 545 548 554 561 CHISHOLM RIDGE ELEMENTARY 769 626 639 701 721 754 806 855 897 947 998 1,051 1,107 COMANCHE SPRINGS ELEMENTARY 753 622 608 626 652 685 727 760 808 852 902 954 1,004 EAGLE MOUNTAIN ELEMENTARY 745 583 564 585 618 644 692 767 799 829 858 890 924 ELKINS ELEMENTARY 605 568 574 587 604 630 656 686 716 747 781 813 847 GILILLAND ELMENTARY 734 608 608 611 622 627 623 629 635 643 650 647 648 GREENFIELD ELEMENTARY 803 704 747 770 800 824 837 847 854 871 880 879 883 HIGH COUNTRY ELEMENTARY 745 641 639 615 628 617 623 623 629 640 651 663 673 LAKE POINTE ELEMENTARY 749 642 649 669 721 760 806 835 875 920 960 1,007 1,056 NORTHBROOK ELEMENTARY 706 620 635 632 632 634 638 625 630 633 634 633 631 PARKVIEW ELEMENTARY 706 660 681 706 734 770 815 836 907 982 1,059 1,135 1,212 REMINGTON POINT ELEMENTARY 758 624 649 673 695 689 698 722 727 731 739 747 752 SAGINAW ELEMENTARY 519 446 420 410 410 424 423 427 429 433 435 435 434 WILLOW CREEK ELEMENTARY 748 679 687 688 686 695 694 693 701 704 708 710 712 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 10,315 8,847 8,903 9,087 9,348 9,581 9,876 10,130 10,435 10,769 11,095 11,410 11,736 Elementary Percent Change 2.717% 0.63% 2.07% 2.87% 2.49% 3.08% 2.57% 3.01% 3.20% 3.03% 2.84% 2.86% Elementary Absolute Change 234 56 184 261 233 295 254 305 334 326 315 326

Ten Year Forecast By Middle School & High School Campus HISTORY ENROLLMENT PROJECTS Campus Name Capacity 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 CREEKVIEW MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,078 748 736 780 806 836 843 904 930 946 936 973 1,015 HIGHLAND MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,050 848 855 883 845 860 871 898 910 924 946 973 1,010 PRAIRIE VISTA MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,002 830 855 899 950 959 981 1,018 1,063 1,078 1,071 1,104 1,138 WAYSIDE MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,002 810 869 889 929 933 932 987 1,024 1,096 1,172 1,215 1,266 WILLKIE MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,002 844 851 859 872 909 939 989 1,038 1,062 1,093 1,125 1,171 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 5,134 4,087 4,175 4,319 4,411 4,506 4,575 4,805 4,974 5,115 5,227 5,399 5,610 Middle School Percent Change 1.77% 2.15% 3.45% 2.13% 2.15% 1.53% 5.03% 3.52% 2.83% 2.19% 3.29% 3.91% Middle School Absolute Change 71 88 144 92 95 69 230 169 141 112 172 211 BOSWELL HIGH SCHOOL 1,849 1,734 1,578 1,558 1,666 1,745 1,757 1,860 1,865 1,921 2,031 2,095 SAGINAW HIGH SCHOOL 1,980 1,901 1,781 1,830 1,886 1,953 1,998 2,022 2,080 2,144 2,207 2,264 CHISHOLM TRAIL HIGH SCHOOL 842 1,331 1,765 1,864 1,866 1,933 1,958 2,002 2,077 2,140 2,211 2,272 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 4,797 5,076 5,234 5,362 5,528 5,741 5,823 5,994 6,132 6,316 6,559 6,741 High School Percent Change 7.87% 5.82% 3.11% 2.45% 3.09% 3.86% 1.42% 2.94% 2.30% 3.00% 3.85% 2.77% High School Absolute Change 350 279 158 128 165 213 82 171 138 184 243 182 DISTRICT TOTALS 17,731 18,154 18,640 19,121 19,615 20,192 20,758 21,403 22,016 22,638 23,368 24,087 District Percent Change 3.41% 2.39% 2.68% 2.58% 2.58% 2.94% 2.80% 3.11% 2.86% 2.82% 3.23% 3.08% District Absolute Change 585 423 486 481 493 577 566 645 613 622 730 719

Summary Annual Starts are up over 700 units for the first time since 2008, up 15.5% over 2012. Vacant Developed Lot supply is in good position to sustain new housing growth. Comanche Springs, Parkview and Lake Pointe with the highest activity of new home starts representing more than 60% of the total starts for the district. EMS ISD can expect an increase of approximately 2,604 students during the next 5 years. 2018/19 enrollment projection 20,758. EMS ISD is projected to have over 24,000 students for the 2023/24 school year.