Welcome! Lamar CISD Carter Elementary Attendance Boundary Committee January 8, 2018
+ Welcome & Introductions Facilitator Ken Helvey, Ed. D. Partner-N2 Learning, ken.helvey@n2learning.org Assistant Professor Texas Wesleyan University LCISD staff & other introductions Getting to know one another
+ Outcomes for today Review the master plan principles and rezoning process. Staff will present demographic information and the initial recommendation. ABC reviews the recommendation and develops questions, comments and/or requests for more information.
+ Agenda Master Plan Principles LCISD Zoning Process Role of the ABC Timeline Demographics Overview Carter Elementary Zoning Recommendation ABC Work Norms Group Work Next Steps
+ Master Plan Principles To maximize enrollment at all campuses: Elementary schools 750 maximum Middle schools (6) 750 maximum Junior high schools (7-8) 1400 maximum High schools 2000 maximum To embrace the neighborhood school concept for all elementary students who reside in Lamar CISD. To house grades PK-5 in all elementary schools to ensure parents and students that they can enjoy six years of attending school on the same campus. To reflect the ethnic balance of the school district in grades 6-12. To locate schools with grades 6-12 in the same general area. To minimize the alteration of high school zones. To provide adequate space for school/community-based education programs.
+ LCISD Zoning Process Description (see document) Role of the ABC The ABC will review the supporting data and options presented by the administration and work to propose possible zoning recommendations for Board consideration and approval. (LCISD Zoning Process 2004) Carter Rezoning Timeline (see document)
+ Demographic Report (Administration) Overview Carter Elementary Initial Zoning Recommendation
Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 2017 Population and Survey Analysts
Enrollment Past Growth Rates 31,000 30,000 29,000 4.8% 3.83% 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 4.63% 3.61% 3.39% 3.24% 2.6% 3.95% 23,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 9 Population and Survey Analysts
Fastest Growth Districts in Texas (Most Students Added Between 2015-16 and 2016-17) Enrollment Enrollment Growth Rank District Name 2015-16 2016-17* Numeric Percent 1 FRISCO ISD 53,300 55,916 2,616 4.9% 2 KATY ISD 72,952 75,398 2,446 3.4% 3 PROSPER ISD 8,296 9,930 1,634 19.7% 4 ALVIN ISD 22,183 23,498 1,315 5.9% 5 CONROE ISD 58,239 59,530 1,291 2.2% 6 LAMAR CISD 29,692 30,829 1,137 3.8% 7 FORT BEND ISD 73,115 74,210 1,095 1.5% 8 NORTHWEST ISD 20,976 22,052 1,076 5.1% 9 KLEIN ISD 50,594 51,667 1,073 2.1% 10 DENTON ISD 27,559 28,624 1,065 3.9% 11 NORTHSIDE ISD 104,539 105,550 1,011 1.0% 12 COMAL ISD 21,163 22,173 1,010 4.8% 13 CYPRESS-FAIRBANKS ISD 113,936 114,875 939 0.8% 14 LEANDER ISD 37,158 38,087 929 2.5% 15 NEW CANEY ISD 13,816 14,615 799 5.8% 16 CLEAR CREEK ISD 41,226 41,994 768 1.9% 17 TOMBALL ISD 14,120 14,885 765 5.4% 18 HAYS CISD 18,654 19,230 576 3.1% 19 LAKE TRAVIS ISD 9,238 9,792 554 6.0% 20 KELLER ISD 34,180 34,734 554 1.6% * Pre-PEIMS enrollment estimates 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 10 Population and Survey Analysts
Largest Growth Single-Family Developments PU Largest Single Family Residential Developments Projected New Housing Occupancies 2017-2021 2021-2026 2017-2026 2F Tamarron 1,493 1,632 3,125 2E Jordan Ranch 910 1,450 2,360 20D Veranda 890 1,020 1,880 2G Cross Creek Ranch 918 703 1,621 2F, 4B, 4C Harrison Interests Tract 125 1,360 1,485 4D Foster Farms 120 1,310 1,430 2C Fulshear Farms 125 962 1,085 41A Briarwood Crossing 354 610 964 44H Stone Creek Estates 365 510 875 2A Fulshear Lakes 270 580 850 4B Fulbrook at Fulshear Creek 350 402 752 5A Creekside Ranch 355 330 685 5B Dairwood Tract - a.ka. Sendero 122 510 632 5F McCrary Meadows 368 258 626 44L Walnut Creek 383 226 609 43C Long Lake Ltd. Parcel 115 490 605 5C Talavera 261 341 602 2E Firethorne West 490 26 516 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 11 Population and Survey Analysts
Young Ranch Northwest Growth 20,979 Housing Units to be Occupied by 2026 Jordan Ranch Tamarron Cross Creek Ranch Firethorne West Levee Improvement District being created for Foster Farms Future Twinwood Fulshear Lakes Weston Lakes Downtown Fulshear Estate Lots of planned south of Downtown Fulshear Foster Farms Future Development Wave Estate Lots Likely 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 12 Population and Survey Analysts
Development along Grand Parkway 2,196 new housing units projected east of Grand Parkway Talavera Dairwood Tract Creekside Ranch The Trace WBH Ranches Tract Staudt Tract Creekside Ranch, McCrary Meadows, and Talavera are actively building this year McCrary Meadows FM 359 Pecan Grove Dairwood & WBH Ranches Tracts = 2,000+ acres or upwards of 6,000 future housing units Kingdom Heights Future Development Wave Probable Multi-Family 02.16.17 Devon Estates Lakes of Bella Terra Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 13 Downtown Richmond Population and Survey Analysts
Southwest Freeway Corridor Growth Veranda is projected to have 1,880 housing occupancies by 2026 Downtown Rosenberg Village Crossing Veranda Sweetgrass George Foundation Mixed Use Summer Lakes Briarwood Crossing is projected to have 964 Bonbrook Stone Creek Estates is projected to have 875 Fairpark Village Walnut Creek Stone Creek Estates Denser development is likely in the I-69 Corridor Briarwood Crossing Rosenberg relaxed MF parking space minimum Future Development Wave Probable Multi-Family 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 14 Population and Survey Analysts
Projected New Housing Occupancies by Oct. 2021 18,620 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 15 Population and Survey Analysts
Projected New Housing Occupancies by Oct. 2026 55,342 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 16 Population and Survey Analysts
Past Projections vs. Enrollment 9 students 32,000 31,000 30,708 30,829 30,838 31,068 30,000 29,692 29,000 28,332 28,000 27,000 26,000 26,135 27,079 25,000 24,000 23,000 2012 Enrollment 2013 2014 2015 Projected Low Growth Projections 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 17 2016 Projected Moderate Growth Projected High Growth Population and Survey Analysts
Enrollment Students Three Scenarios of Growth 60,000 55,000 High Growth 2021 40,052 2026 55,484 50,000 45,000 40,000 Moderate Growth 2021 38,272 2026 49,850 Low Growth 2021 36,661 2026 43,687 35,000 30,000 25,000 2011 2017 2026 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 18 Population and Survey Analysts
Post 2021 Post 2021 Lindsey 2020 Long Range Planning Elementary Schools Hubenak McNeill 2020 Huggins 2020 Post- Adolphus 2021 Bentley Beasley Post 2021 Bowie 2018 Meyer Pink Frost Austin Long Jackson Smith Hutchison 2021 Dickinson Campbell Ray Travis Williams Arredondo Post 2021 Thomas 2018 Velasquez 2017-18 Proposed Attendance Zones 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 19 Population and Survey Analysts
Elementary School Long Range Plan Summary New Elementary Schools Needed 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total 2016-17 Study 1 2 3 1 5 12 2015-16 Study 1 2 3 1 1 3 11 2014-15 Study 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 12 2013-14 Study 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 9 2012-13 Study 1 1 1 2 2 1 8 2011-12 Study 1 1 1 2 5 2010-11 Study 1 1 2 1 1 6 2009-10 Study 1 1 2 1 2 1 8 02.16.17 Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update 20 Population and Survey Analysts
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+ Norms Be fully present at the meetings and be attentive to behaviors which impact physical and mental engagement. Invite and welcome contributions of every member and listen to each other. Strive to achieve consensus. Be respectful to all.
+ ABC Work Groups discuss the recommendation. Develop questions, comments, and/or requests for more information. Enter the responses on the Google Doc according to your designated group number. Review for clarification. Responses are sent to the administration. Administration reviews/responds to questions, comments and/or RFI and sends feedback to the ABC.
+ Next Steps Continue to review the information as needed. Send any additional questions, comments or RFI s to Mike Rockwood, mrockwood@lcisd.org or Barbara Johnson bajohnson@lcisd.org Be prepared to respond to questions. The initial recommendation will be posted online. Review feedback from administration from ABC work. January 22 - Work to reach consensus on a recommendation. February 1- Public meeting February 5 - Finalize recommendation Have a great week!