ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY FALL SEMESTER HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS After five years of significant growth, enrollment at Oklahoma State University leveled off in Fall 2014. While total enrollment across Oklahoma s public institutions has fallen for Fall 2014, OSU market share of students has increased. The 25,854 students enrolled in Fall 2014 ranks as the second largest in institutional history. OSU welcomed 4,057 new freshmen this fall. This is an increase of 185 over the Fall 2013 new freshmen class and only the second time OSU has had a freshmen class over 4,000. The projections for future years presented in this section are mathematical models based on past trends in applications, admitted students, and subsequent enrollments, as well as retention rates and forecasts of high school graduates. Forecasts for Oklahoma high school graduates show a slight decrease in the upcoming year, followed by continual increases for at least five years after that. Because approximately two-thirds of the OSU freshman class are Oklahoma residents, these forecasts are the primary source of projection numbers for freshman enrollment. The forecasts of Oklahoma high school graduates used in this section are based upon information from the Oklahoma State Department of Education and the State Regents for Higher Education. They assume that demographic trends such as immigration into and emigration out of the state will remain relatively constant. Graduate enrollment at OSU decreased to 4,695 in Fall 2014. Reasons for this decline include shifting a popular graduate program to OSU Center for Health Sciences, changes in how waivers are provided for research and teaching assistants and finally a consistent recovery of the economy and job market. In summary, the enrollment projections at OSU are based on policy decisions originating with the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education and recruitment policies set by OSU administration. Changes to these policies, as well as changing admissions, enrollment, retention, scholarship, and recruiting practices, all have a role in determining future enrollment at Oklahoma State University. The Office of Institutional Research & Information Management will continue to monitor developments in these areas and assess their impact. 79

OKLAHOMA HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES AND ACT TEST-TAKERS 2004-2005 THROUGH 2013-2014 ACTUAL Year HS Grads ACT Takers Percent 2004-2005 37,446 26,297 70.2% 2005-2006 37,940 26,425 69.6% 2006-2007 38,314 26,360 68.8% 2007-2008 38,915 27,131 69.7% 2008-2009 38,468 27,054 70.3% 2009-2010 39,808 28,343 71.2% 2010-2011 37,719 28,223 74.8% 2011-2012 39,085 29,342 75.1% 2012-2013 38,616 * 28,988 75.1% 2013-2014 37,748 * 28,682 76.0% Sources : Oklahoma High School Graduates - Projections, Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. ACT Profile Report - State, Graduating Class 2014, Oklahoma. * 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 high school graduate counts are projections. PROJECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES AND ACT TEST-TAKERS 2014-2015 37,280 28,099 75.4% 2015-2016 38,937 29,348 75.4% 2016-2017 39,251 29,585 75.4% 2017-2018 39,886 30,064 75.4% 2018-2019 40,141 30,256 75.4% Sources : Oklahoma High School Graduates - Projections, Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education. Projections of ACT test-takers are based on past patterns of participation. 80

HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IN OKLAHOMA 2004-2005 THROUGH 2011-2012 ACTUAL, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2018-2019 44,000 41,500 39,000 37,446 37,940 38,314 38,915 38,468 39,808 37,719 39,085 38,616 37,748 37,280 38,937 39,251 39,886 40,141 36,500 34,000 81 31,500 29,000 26,500 26,297 26,425 26,360 27,131 27,054 28,343 28,223 29,342 28,988 28,682 28,099 29,348 29,585 30,064 30,256 24,000 21,500 19,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 HS Grads ACT Takers Note: High school graduate numbers are revised based on the 2012 OSRHE Oklahoma High School Graduates Projections chart. Projections from 2013 2019 are also from the 2012 OSRHE Oklahoma High School Graduates Projections chart.

PROJECTION OF NEW FRESHMEN* OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY FALL SEMESTERS 2005 THROUGH 2014 (ACTUAL) WITH PROJECTIONS THROUGH FALL 2019 Nonresident Year Resident US Citizen International Total Actual 2005 2,548 715 52 3,315 2006 2,500 692 44 3,236 2007 2,490 673 46 3,209 2008 2,357 683 33 3,073 2009 2,294 811 43 3,148 2010 2,453 1,039 62 3,554 2011 2,553 1,303 40 3,896 2012 2,702 1,544 43 4,289 2013 2,489 1,311 72 3,872 2014 2,661 1,331 65 4,057 Projection 2015 2,623 1,370 60 4,053 2016 2,727 1,357 62 4,146 2017 2,737 1,345 62 4,144 2018 2,782 1,345 62 4,189 2019 2,799 1,344 63 4,206 Note: Projections are based on historical patterns of admitted new freshmen and enrolled new freshmen. * New freshmen counts exclude concurrent high school students and non-degree-seeking students for all years listed. 82

HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY FALL SEMESTERS 2005 THROUGH 2014 ACTUAL, WITH PROJECTIONS THROUGH FALL 2019 Freshman Special Total Special Total Total OSU-T OSU-T Grand Year New Other Sophomore Junior Senior Undergrad Undergrad Master Doctorate Graduate Graduate OSU-Stillwater CVHS Undergrad Grad Total 83 Actual 2005 3,304 1,021 4,035 4,391 4,736 97 17,584 2,042 1,226 254 3,522 21,106 296 1,325 734 23,461 2006 3,221 922 4,099 4,383 4,658 109 17,392 2,005 1,239 291 3,535 20,927 308 1,345 727 23,307 2007 3,191 843 3,977 4,262 4,602 133 17,008 2,145 1,252 239 3,636 20,644 312 1,360 689 23,005 2008 3,054 749 3,795 4,280 4,517 241 16,636 2,212 1,321 268 3,801 20,437 319 1,350 662 22,768 2009 3,124 781 3,598 4,134 4,653 210 16,500 2,393 1,365 244 4,002 20,502 329 1,349 665 22,845 2010 3,519 770 3,700 4,123 4,709 186 17,007 2,661 1,465 286 4,412 21,419 344 1,190 569 23,522 2011 3,848 778 3,986 4,288 4,721 229 17,850 2,562 1,455 195 4,212 22,062 349 1,159 661 24,231 2012 4,237 851 4,237 4,611 4,862 202 19,000 2,750 1,448 172 4,370 23,370 352 1,130 692 25,544 2013 3,802 789 4,617 4,699 5,296 198 19,401 2,882 1,434 150 4,466 23,867 349 1,092 631 25,939 2014* 4,009 781 4,426 5,092 5,261 211 19,780 2,604 1,413 160 4,177 23,957 338 1,041 518 25,854 Projection 2015 4,053 800 4,339 4,986 5,736 204 20,118 2,474 1,413 152 4,039 24,157 335 1,051 518 26,061 2016 4,146 802 4,350 4,946 5,625 204 20,073 2,350 1,413 144 3,907 23,980 335 1,062 518 25,895 2017 4,144 814 4,422 4,957 5,581 204 20,122 2,233 1,413 137 3,783 23,905 335 1,083 518 25,841 2018 4,189 815 4,429 5,028 5,593 204 20,258 2,121 1,413 130 3,664 23,922 335 1,105 518 25,880 2019 4,206 821 4,464 5,035 5,669 204 20,399 2,015 1,413 124 3,552 23,951 335 1,127 518 25,931 Note: New freshmen projections are based on historical patterns of admitted new freshmen and enrolled new freshmen. On-campus sophomore, junior, and senior projections are based on cohort survival rates. * 46 sophomores and 2 juniors in this table are in their first year of college and are thus listed in other tables as new freshmen.