United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FOP - 9 April 9 Cotton: World Markets and Trade World Consumption Continues to Weaken as Economic Situation Shows Few Signs of Improvement Consumption, Million bales / / / / /9 China India & Pakistan U.S. & Turkey Others Due to the worsening economic recession, world cotton consumption is now forecast to fall more than percent from the / level, which is the largest year-to-year global decline since records began in 9. Virtually every major consuming country is experiencing the largest shrinkage in some years. Consumption in China is falling faster than previously expected and accounts for nearly half of the decline. India and Pakistan will see reductions averaging about percent, while in Turkey and the United States consumption will tumble about percent. In April, USDA lowered the /9 world consumption by. million bales. Further decline in China s consumption accounted for most of the change, as new evidence indicates that the spinning sector is now faring worse than in many other countries. U.S. consumption was lowered by, bales due to recent very bearish data from the spinning sector. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
COTTON: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE 9 Cents per pound // // // TRADE CHANGES IN /9 // // 9/9/ // // // // // // U.S. Average Price // // // // // // /9/ A-Index // // // // //9 //9 //9 India is cut by one-third to million bales due to sales from government controlled stocks not being competitive in export markets. United States is up, bales to. million due to less competition from India. Brazil is up, bales due to less competition from India. Australia is up, bales due to less competition from India. Office of Global Analysis April 9
Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Working Statistics) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Mktg Year Total Dom. Cons. Ending Algeria / Australia /9 - Belgium-Luxembourg /9 - - Brazil /9 - - China, Peoples Republic of /9 -, -,, Colombia / - - /9 - -9 - - Czech Republic /9 - - - - Egypt /9 Germany /9 - - Guatemala /9 - - - India /9 -,, Iran /9 - - - - - Italy /9 - - - - Kazakhstan, Republic of /9 Pakistan / - - - /9 - - - - Office of Global Analysis April 9
Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Working Statistics) (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Mktg Year Total Dom. Cons. Ending Paraguay /9 - Portugal /9 - - - Thailand /9 - - - - Turkey /9 - United States / - /9 - - - - - Uzbekistan, Republic of / /9 World World / - - - - - /9 - - - - - -, - -, Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table Cotton World,, and Trade (Season August ) ( MT) / / / / Mar /9 Apr /9 China, Peoples Republic of,9,,9,,9,9 India,,,,,, United States,,,,,,9 Pakistan,,,,9,9,9 Brazil,,,,,, Uzbekistan, Republic of,,,,,9,9 Turkey 9 Other,9,,,,, Total,,,,,, USE Dom. Consumption China, Peoples Republic of, 9,9,,, 9,9 India,,,9,9,, Pakistan,,,,,, Turkey,,,9,,, Brazil 9 99 99, 9 9 United States,,, 99 9 Bangladesh 9 99 99 99 Indonesia Mexico 9 9 Thailand 9 Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,9,9 China, Peoples Republic of,9,99,,,, Bangladesh 99 99 Pakistan Turkey Indonesia 9 9 9 Thailand 9 9 Mexico 9 9 Vietnam 9 9 9 Russian Federation Korea, Republic of 9 9 9 Other,,9,999,,9, Total, 9,,,,, United States,,,,9,, Uzbekistan, Republic of, 9 9 Brazil 9 9 9 India 99, Australia Burkina 9 9 Greece 9 9 Turkmenistan Benin 9 9 9 9 Kazakhstan, Republic of 9 9 Other,,9,,,, Total, 9,,,,,9 Ending China, Peoples Republic of,,9,,,,9 India,9,,9,,9, United States,9,,,,9,9 Brazil,,,,,9 Pakistan,,9 9 9 9 Uzbekistan, Republic of 9 9 Turkey 9 Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,9, none none none none none Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table Cotton World,, and Trade (Season August ) ( Bales) / / / / Mar /9 Apr /9 Brazil,9,,,,, China, Peoples Republic of,,,,,, India 9, 9,,,,, Pakistan,, 9,9,9 9, 9, Turkey,,,,,, United States,,9, 9,,, Uzbekistan, Republic of,,,,,, Other,9,,,,9, Total,,9,99,,, USE Dom. Consumption Bangladesh,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, China, Peoples Republic of,,,,,, India,,,,,, Indonesia,,,,,, Mexico,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Thailand,,,9,9,, Turkey,,9,,,, United States,9,,9,,, Other,,,,,9, Total,9,,,9, 9, Bangladesh,,,,,, China, Peoples Republic of, 9,,,,, Indonesia,,,,,, Korea, Republic of,,, 9 Mexico,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,9,, Russian Federation,,,, 9 9 Thailand,,9,9,9,9, Turkey,,,9,,, Vietnam 9 9,, Other,9,9 9,9,,, Total,9,,, 9,, Australia,99,,9,9,, Benin Brazil,,9,,,, Burkina 9,, Greece,,,, India,,,,, Kazakhstan, Republic of 9 Turkmenistan United States,,9,,,, Uzbekistan, Republic of,9,,,,, Other, 9,,9,,, Total,,,9, 9,, Ending Brazil,,,,,, China, Peoples Republic of,,,,, 9, India,,,,,, Pakistan,9,9,,,, Turkey,9,,9,99,,9 United States,9,9 9,9,,, Uzbekistan, Republic of,9,,9,,,9 Other,,,,,,9 Total,,,,,9, none none none none none Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table Cotton, Yield, and / Region / (Million hectares) Yield (Kilograms per hectare) (Million lb. bales) Change in Prel. /9 Proj. Prel. /9 Proj. Prel. /9 Proj. From last month From last year / Mar Apr / / Mar Apr / / Mar Apr MBales Percent MBales Percent World..9..99. 9....99... -. -. -. -. United States.... 9. 9. 9. 9..9 9... -. -. -. -. Total Foreign 9...9.......9 9. 9. -. -. -. -. none Western Hemisphere Brazil.9..9.9,9.,.,.,....... -. -. Mexico....,.,.,.,....... -. -. Argentina..... 9......... -. -. Paraguay.... 9.......... -. -. Peru.9.9.9.9............ Colombia..... 99. 99....9.. -. -9.9 -. -. Africa Burkina................9 Mali...9.9.....9..... -. -. Cote d'ivoire...9.9............ Cameroon.... 9........... 9. Benin...... 9. 9....... -. -. Chad..........9...... Togo...... 9. 9....... -. -. Senegal.... 9......9......9 Egypt..... 9. 9. 9..9..... -. -. Zimbabwe.............. -. -. Nigeria.... 9.. 9. 9......... Asia Oceania China, Peoples Republic of....,.,99.,99.,99....... -. -. India 9. 9. 9. 9........... -. -. Pakistan...9.9.... 9.9.9 9. 9..... Kazakhstan, Republic of.... 9... 9....... -.9 -. Tajikistan, Republic of.............. -. -. Turkmenistan...... 9. 9......... Uzbekistan, Republic of.............. -. -9.9 Turkey....,.,9.,.,....... -. -. Australia....,.,.,9.,9......... Syria....,.,.,.,....9.9.. -. -.9 Burma, Union of.... 9. 9. 9. 9......... Europe Greece.... 9. 9. 9. 9....... -. -.9 Others.........9...9 -. -...9 Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation. Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table Cotton and Distribution MY /9 (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Afghanistan 9 Albania Algeria Angola Argentina 9,9 9 Armenia, Republic of Australia,,9 -, Austria Azerbaijan, Republic of 99 9 Bahrain 9 Bangladesh,,9, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin 9 Bolivia Brazil,,,, -, Bulgaria Burkina, Burma, Union of 9 Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China, Peoples Republic o,,,,,, -, Colombia Congo, Democratic Rep o Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire 9 9 Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table Cotton and Distribution MY /9 (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Dominican Republic Ecuador 9 9 Egypt, El Salvador 9 Estonia Ethiopia France 9 Germany Ghana Greece 9,, Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras 9 9 Hong Kong 9 Hungary India 9,,,,,, Indonesia 9 9,,9, Iran Iraq 9 9 Ireland Israel 9 Italy Japan Kazakhstan, Republic of Kenya Korea, Democratic People 9 Korea, Republic of, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia, Republic of Madagascar Malawi 9 Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table Cotton and Distribution MY /9 (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Malaysia 9 9 Mali 9 Mauritius 9 Mexico 9,,, Moldova, Republic of Morocco Mozambique 9 Netherlands Nicaragua 9 Niger Nigeria 9 9 9 Pakistan,9, 9,,,, Panama Paraguay Peru 9 9 Philippines 9 9 Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation 9 9, 9 Senegal 9 9 Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa, Republic of 9 9 Spain Sri Lanka 9 Sudan 9 9 9 Sweden Switzerland Syria 9 9, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Republic of Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table Cotton and Distribution MY /9 (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Tanzania, United Republic Thailand,,, Togo Tunisia Turkey,99,,,99, Turkmenistan 9,,9 Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,,,9, 9, Uruguay Uzbekistan, Republic of,,,,,, Venezuela Vietnam,,, Yemen 9 Zambia Zimbabwe 9 World World,99,,, 99, 9, -,9, Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A Cotton and Distribution MY /9 ( MT) Total Ending Afghanistan 9 Albania 9 Algeria Angola Argentina 9 Armenia, Republic of Australia - Austria 9 9 Azerbaijan, Republic of Bahrain 9 Bangladesh 99 9 99 Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin 9 Bolivia 9 Brazil,,, 9 -,9 Bulgaria Burkina 9 Burma, Union of 9 9 Cambodia Cameroon 9 Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China, Peoples Republic o,,9,, 9,9 -,9 Colombia 9 Congo, Democratic Rep o Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire 9 Croatia Cuba 9 Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A Cotton and Distribution MY /9 (Continued) ( MT) Total Ending Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt 9 El Salvador 9 9 Estonia Ethiopia 9 France Germany Ghana Greece 9 9 9 Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong 9 Hungary India,, 9,,, Indonesia Iran 9 9 9 9 Iraq Ireland Israel 9 Italy 9 Japan 9 9 9 Kazakhstan, Republic of 9 Kenya 9 Korea, Democratic People Korea, Republic of 9 9 Kyrgyzstan, Republic of 9 Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia, Republic of Madagascar Malawi 9 Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A Cotton and Distribution MY /9 (Continued) ( MT) Total Ending Malaysia Mali Mauritius 9 Mexico 9 9 Moldova, Republic of Morocco Mozambique 9 Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan 9,9,, Panama Paraguay 9 Peru 9 9 Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa, Republic of 9 Spain 9 Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria 9 Taiwan Tajikistan, Republic of 9 Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A Cotton and Distribution MY /9 (Continued) ( MT) Total Ending Tanzania, United Republic 9 Thailand 9 9 9 Togo 9 Tunisia 9 9 Turkey,9, Turkmenistan 9 9 Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,9,9 9,,9 Uruguay Uzbekistan, Republic of 9,9, 9 Venezuela Vietnam 9 9 Yemen 9 Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,9,9 -,9, Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Afghanistan 9 Albania Algeria Angola Argentina, 9 Armenia, Republic of Australia,9,99 -,9 Austria 9 Azerbaijan, Republic of 9 Bahrain 9 Bangladesh 9 9,,, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia 9 Brazil,,,,9, -, Bulgaria Burkina 9 Burma, Union of 9 Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic 9 Chad 9 Chile China, Peoples Republic o,,,, 9,, -, Colombia 9 Congo, Democratic Rep o Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia Cuba 9 Cyprus Czech Republic 9 Denmark Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Dominican Republic Ecuador 9 9 9 Egypt,, 9 9 El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece,,9, Guatemala Guinea 9 Haiti Honduras 9 9 Hong Kong 9 Hungary India 9,9,,,,, Indonesia,,, Iran Iraq 9 9 Ireland Israel 9 Italy 9 Japan 9 Kazakhstan, Republic of Kenya Korea, Democratic People 9 9 Korea, Republic of 9,, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of 9 Latvia Lebanon Lithuania 9 Macedonia, Republic of Madagascar Malawi Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Malaysia 9 Mali 9 Mauritius Mexico,,,, Moldova, Republic of Morocco 9 Mozambique 9 Netherlands 9 Nicaragua 9 Niger Nigeria 9 9 9 Pakistan,,,9,9,, 9 Panama Paraguay Peru 9 9 Philippines 9 Poland Portugal 9 Romania Russian Federation,,, Senegal 9 Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa, Republic of 9 Spain 9 9 Sri Lanka 9 Sudan Sweden Switzerland 9 Syria 9,,9 Taiwan 9,9, Tajikistan, Republic of 9 Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Tanzania, United Republic 9 Thailand,9,9,9 Togo Tunisia 9 9 Turkey,9,,,9, Turkmenistan 99,,99 Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States, 9,9 9,,9,, Uruguay Uzbekistan, Republic of,,9,,,, Venezuela Vietnam 9, 9 Yemen 9 Zambia Zimbabwe 9 World World,,,,,,9 -,, Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (, Metric Tons) Ending Afghanistan 9 Albania Algeria Angola Argentina 9 Armenia, Republic of Australia - Austria Azerbaijan, Republic of Bahrain Bangladesh 99 Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin 9 9 Bolivia 9 Brazil,,, -, Bulgaria Burkina 9 Burma, Union of 9 9 Cambodia Cameroon Canada 9 Central African Republic Chad 9 Chile China, Peoples Republic o,,,,, -, Colombia 9 Congo, Democratic Rep o Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire 9 9 9 Croatia Cuba 9 Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Ending Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt 9 El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia 9 France Germany Ghana Greece 9 9 9 Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,9, 9,9,, Indonesia Iran 9 Iraq Ireland Israel 9 Italy Japan 9 Kazakhstan, Republic of Kenya 9 Korea, Democratic People Korea, Republic of Kyrgyzstan, Republic of 9 Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia, Republic of Madagascar Malawi 9 Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Ending Malaysia Mali 9 9 Mauritius Mexico Moldova, Republic of Morocco 9 Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria 9 Pakistan 9,9, 9 9 Panama Paraguay Peru 9 Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Senegal 9 9 Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa, Republic of Spain 9 Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria 9 9 Taiwan Tajikistan, Republic of Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Ending Tanzania, United Republic 9 Thailand 9 Togo 9 Tunisia Turkey, Turkmenistan 9 Uganda 9 9 Ukraine United Kingdom United States 9,, 99 9,,9 Uruguay Uzbekistan, Republic of, 9 9 Venezuela Vietnam Yemen 9 9 Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table 9: World Cotton and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Mktg Year Total World World 9/,,,9,,,, 9/9,, 9,9,9,,,9-99/,9,,,,,,9 9/,9,,,,,, - 9/,9,9,9,9,,,9 9 9/,9,,,,,,9 9/,9,,,9,9,, 9 9/,,,,9,,, 9/,,,,9,9,, 9/ 9,,9,9,9,,,9 9 9/,,,,9,9,, 9/9,,9,,,,, 99/9,9, 9,,,9,,9 99/9,,9,9,, 9,, 99/9,, 9,9 9,,,9,9 99/9,,9,,,,, 99/9,,,,9,,, 99/9,,,,,,, - 99/9,9,99 9,,99,,,9-99/9,9, 9,,,9,,9-99/9,, 9,,9,,, - 99/99,9 9,,9, 9,9,, -, 999/,,,9,9,, 9, - /,, 9,99,,, 9, -,9 /, 9, 9, 9,, 9,9 9, - /,, 9,9,,9, 9,9-9 /,, 9,,,9,9 9, - /,9,,,9,9,,9 -, /,,,9,,,, -,9 /,,,99,,9,9, -, /,,,,,,,9 -, /9,99,,, 99,, 9, -,9 Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table : United States Cotton and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Mktg Year Yield Total Ending Stock to % United States, -,9,,99,,, 9/, -,,,,9,, 9/, -,,9,,, 9, 9/, -,,, 9,,, 9/,9 -,,,,,, 9/,,,,,9,9, 9/,9 -,,,,,, 9/9 9, -, 9,9,9,9,9,9 99/, -,9,9,,,, 9/, -,,,,,, 9/,9 -,,,,9,,99 9/,,9,,,,9 9,9 9/, -,,,,9,, 9/ 9, -,,9,,,, 9/, -,, 9, 9, 9,, 9/, -,, 9,,, 9,9 9/,9,,,,, 9, 9/9, -,9,9 9,9,9,9, 99/9, -,,9,9,,, 99/9, 9,, 9,9,,, 99/9, -9,, 9,9,,, 99/9, -,,,,, 9, 99/9, -,9 9,, 9,, 9,9 99/9,9,,,9,9,, 99/9,9 -,,,9,9,9 9, 99/9,,9,,,9,9, 99/9,99-9,,9, 9,9,, 99/99,9,9,, 9,9,99, 999/, -,,,9,,9, /,,9,,,, 9,9 /,,,9,,9,, /,,,,,,, /,9,9,, 9,, 9, /,9 -,,9 9,,9,9 9, / 9,9,9,, 9,,9 9, /,,,,9 9, 9,9 9, /, 9,,,9,, 9, /9 Office of Global Analysis April 9
Table : Foreign Cotton and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Mktg Year Yield Total Ending Total Foreign, 9,, 9,9,, 9,9, 9/,,9,9 9,,9 9,,, 9/,,,9 99,,9,,, 9/,,, 99,,9,,, 9/ 9,, 9,9 9,9,9,9,, 9/,9,9,9 9,, 9,9 9,, 9/,9,, 9,,,,9,9 9/9, 9,9, 99,,,,9 9, 99/,9 9,,9 9,,,,, 9/ 9,, 9,9 9,,,9,9, 9/,,, 99,,,9 9,, 9/,,9,,,,,,9 9/,,,9,,,, 9, 9/,,9,,,9,, 9, 9/,9 9,,,99,9,, 9,9 9/,,9,,,,,9, 9/,9,, 9,,,9,,99 9/9,9 9,,,9,,,9, 99/9,,,,9,,,9 9, 99/9,,9,,9 9,9,, 9, 99/9 9,,,,,,,, 99/9,, 9,9 9,,9, 9,, 99/9 9, -9,9,,,,,, 99/9,9 -,9 9,,9,9,9 9, 9,9 99/9, -, 9,9,,,,9, 99/9, -,9 9,,9,9,,, 99/9, -,9 9,,,,,, 99/99,9 -,,,,9,99,,9 999/, -,9 9,,,,9,9, /, -,,9,9 9,,99,, /, -9 9,,,9,,,, /, -,9 9, 9,,,9,,, /,99 -,,9,,, 9,,, /, -,,9, 9,9, 9,9,99 9 9, /, -,99,9, 9,9,,, 9, /, -,,, 9,9,,9,, /, -,9,,,9, 9,,, /9 Office of Global Analysis April 9