# Managerial Decision Making

Size: px
Start display at page:

Transcription

1 Course Business Managerial Decision Making Session 4 Conditional Probability & Bayesian Updating Surveys in the future... attempt to participate is the important thing Work-load goals Average 6-7 hours, including reading, writing memos, homework problems, etc» I m always looking for new, interesting readings Never MAX more than 8 hours» If so, tell me, cause something needs fixing at my end Web site: even if TuckStreams is down... Reading this week: is light, so get ahead in Influence MDM: Key Concepts so far Conditional Probability Heuristics Satisficing Conditional Probability: Pr(A B) : the probability of A given that we know B occurred or will occur Base Rates Analysis Intuition Good DM Process Now, if A & B are independent, then: Pr (A B) = Pr (A) Independent Example: Pr(die A & B, when rolled is a 1 ( Ace )) Probability Conditional Pr & Bayesian Updating 1. Framing 2.Gathering Info Pr (Ace 1 it s first die rolled) = 1/6 AND Pr (Ace 2 it s second die rolled) = 1/6 Conditional Probability Conditional Probability: Pr(A B) is the probability of A given that B occurred or will occur Now, if A & B are not independent, then: prob (A B) = prob (A&B) / prob (B) note the scaling (normalizing) by B Axioms of Probability Theory Now, remember the Multiplication Rule : Pr (A & B) = Pr (A) * Pr (B A) Pr (Eagles & Bucs in Super Bowl) = Pr (Eagles) * Pr (Bucs Eagles) But we KNOW Pr (Bucs Eagles) = 0!!!!! From the Multiplication Rule, we get something very important...

2 Conditional Probability: Bayes Rule Multiplication Rule (repeated): prob (A & B) = prob (A) * prob (B A) or prob (B) * prob (A B) Bayes Rule follows from the Multiplication Rule (rearranged) : prob (A B) = prob (A&B) / prob (B) prob (A B) = prob (A) * prob (B A) / prob (B) Why is this important? Virtually All π judgments... A B Recent Probability Judgments Last week, what was my probability (prior) that the Iraq war would last longer than one month? What is my posterior probability, now that I have observed the first week? More? Rain & Lightning Rain Prob(Rain) = 40% Prob(Lightning) = 10% Prob(Rain&Lightning)= 5% Lightning Prob(Lightning Rain) = prob (R & L) / prob (R) Prob(Lightning Rain) =.05 /.4 =.125 = 12.5% Prob(Rain Lightning) =.05 /.1 =.5 = 50% MBAs and Philosophers Survey: A class has two types of students, MBAs and Philosophers. You know the following: 1. Of the 150 Students, 100 are MBAs, 50 Phil s 2. Only 30% of the MBAs are Democrats (70% Reps.), but 80% of the Phil s are Democrats (so 20% Reps.) Question: If a student from the class is a Democrat, what is the chance that he or she is a Philosopher? What is your quick answer? in %: MBAs and Philosophers Prob (Phil Demo) Survey: Of the 150 Students, 100 are MBAs, 50 Phil s. 30% of the MBAs are Democrats (70% Reps.), 80% of the Phil s are Democrats (20% Reps.) Solution: If a student from the class is a Democrat, what is the chance that he or she is a Philosopher? i.e. Prob ( Phil Demo) Prob (A B) = prob (A&B) / prob (B) Prob ( Phil Demo) = prob (Phil)*prob(Demo Phil) prob(demo) (1/3) * (.80) / (7/15) = 4/7 th = 57% Frequency Series1 < or = to

3 The easy way: the frequency view Question: If a student from the class is a Democrat, what is the chance that he or she is a Philosopher? Rep Demo MBA Phil /(30+40)= 57% What s the Probability? Consider 1000 women, age 40. The probability that a woman age 40 has breast cancer (C) = 1% The disease is detected (M+) by mammography correctly 80% of time if a woman has C The disease is incorrectly detected (M+) by mammography 10% of time when a woman doesn t have C If the test is positive, what is the probability that the woman has C? The frequency view Question: If a student from the class is a Democrat, what is the chance that he or she is a Philosopher? Test = M+ Test = M- Cancer No Cancer Problems When Using Bayes Rule Rationality assumes that when we get new information, we can easily and correctly UPDATE our beliefs/ probabilities of our PRIOR opinion Three factors must be considered: 1. What is the prior probability? 2. How strong is the relationship between prior and new information? 3. How reliable is the new information? What we find: Most people ignore 1 and 3, and just use 2 8/(8+99)= 7.5% Industrial Spying Problem Define H = the Event that competitor introduces a new product D = increased activity at competitor's proving ground D* = your spy reports increased activity at the competitors proving ground Assume: Prob(H D) =.80 when there is increased activity, the probability of a new product is.80 Prob(D D*) = 1.0 whenever the spy reports new activity at the proving ground, she is right. Industrial Spying Problem Question: You get a new report from your spy that there is increased activity at competitor s proving ground. What is the chance that the competitor is introducing a new product, i.e. what is Pr (H D*)? Answer: Prob (H D*) could be almost anything D* D does not mean that D D*!!!» Many people fall into the trap of Confusion of Inverse

4 perhaps they "let" you see... John Hinckley s Trial In 1982 John Hinckley was on trial, accused of having attempted to kill President Reagan. Hinckley s defense attorney argued that Hinckley suffered from mental illness, and they wanted to introduce Hinckley s CAT scan as evidence, which showed brain atrophy Source: Making Hard Decisions John Hinckley s Trial From an expert witness: Approximately 1.5% of people in US suffer from schizophrenia (S). When individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia are given CAT scans, brain atrophy (A) is shown in 30% of the cases compared with only 2% of the scans done on normal (NS) people. Question: What is the probability that Hinckley suffers from schizophrenia, given the fact that his CAT scan shows brain atrophy? John Hinckley s Trial What we know from the expert witness: Pr (S) = 1.5% Pr (A S) = 30% Pr (A NS) = 2% Question: Pr (S A) =? Pr (S A) = [Pr (A S) * Pr (S)]/ {[Pr (A S) * Pr (S)] + [Pr (A NS) * P (NS)]} = =18.6% Far from a sure thing!!! The frequency view Question: Pr (Schizo Cat. shows Atrophy) =? Schizo No Schizo Cat shows Atrophy Cat shows No Atrophy 105 9,653 Totals 150 9,850 10,000 John Hinckley s Trial Solve the problem using frequency approach: -If we tested 100,000 individuals, some 1500 (1.5%) of them would show schizophrenia (and 98,500 would be normal); -Of the 1500, only 30%, or roughly 450, would show atrophy; -Of the 98,500 normal people, 2%, some 1970, would show brain atrophy. -Question: If an individual has atrophy, is he one of the 450 with schizophrenia or one of the 1970 without? - 450/( ) = 18.6% Intuition: there are many false-positive tests 45/(45/197)= 18.6%

5 The Monty Hall Problem This well-known problem is named after the host of the TV show Let s make a deal : Suppose you are on a game show and are given a choice of three doors. You are told that behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, then the host who knows what s behind each door, offers to open a second door, which has a goat. After that, you have the choice to switch to the third door, or stay with your original choice. Do you have a better chance to win the car if you switch to another door or stay with your first one? Is the host telling you anything useful? Yes! Intuition: Prior fact/opinion: 1/3 chance that the car is behind the door you chose (Door 1), and 2/3 chance that the it is behind one of the other doors (Door 2 or 3). New info. from the host: there is a goat behind door 2 (or 3). Posterior (Now what?): by switching to 3 (or 2), you are switching to the bigger pie (2/3 chance). The key is that the host DOES know where the car is, and thus will not pick the door with the car. So by opening a door, he is telling you something valuable... (where the car isn t) Source: Thinking and Deciding A lesson from the Monty Hall problem We should pay attention to new information and update our prior. But, by how much? Should we always change our prior dramatically once there is new info.? Question: What is the correct way to revise our prior? How should we make decisions? The general case: We can think of most decisions as updating an old fact or opinion with new information. We begin with an estimate and a confidence level around an estimate, we ll call it a prior Example: Probability that a prospect (??) will become an important client. Each time we get new information, we revise our prior, and call it a posterior Bayes Rule: updating our priors prob(a new info) = prob(new info A)prob(A) prob(new info) prob(a) is the prior probability before new info arrives prob(new info A) is the likelihood or expectedness of the new data (given the prior) prob(a new info) is the revised probability after the new data has been taken into account, often called the posterior Bayes Rule in words: Prior => Likelihood => Posterior posterior = k( prior likelihood ) In essence, Bayes Rule says: adjust your prior expectations by how likely the new news is in situations like this. The key issue is determining the precision of the new information relative to the precision of the prior info. (Repeat! repeat! Repeat! Reread this until you ve got it.) So, is our prior diffuse or precise? our new data?

6 Bayesian Updating: Flow Chart Bayesian Updating with Normal priors and data Managerial examples (1) In a mid-sized far eastern country A, less than 5% of the western sportswear franchises survived over the past five years. Now a consulting firm has approached Nike, suggesting a business opportunity in country A with an extraordinary local company, PerfectPartner, who has just had a major success with a well-known European brand. The consulting firm is extremely confident that the cooperation between Nike and PerfectPartner is going to be a huge success. Do you think agree? Why? Bayes Rule in words: Prior => Likelihood => Posterior posterior = k( prior likelihood ) In essence, Bayes Rule says: adjust your prior expectations by how likely the new news is in situations like this. Extremely common decision fault: We overweight new information, relative to its actual value Managerial examples (2) A Tuck MBA, Mr. Smith, who graduated in 1982, spent all his post-mba years in a Fortune 500 company (X), marching with the company through all the ups and downs. He led critical turnarounds in six of the company s factories around the globe, for which he has been nominated as one of the potential successors of the COO who is retiring in December. A week ago, however, an explosion occurred at X s largest factory in North America (which is under the leadership of Mr. Smith) and essentially demolished the central R&D lab. The accident involved a few casualties, and will result in a significant delay in the launch of the company s next generation product. Will you still support promoting Mr. Smith? Why? Managerial decisions When using Bayes theorem is impractical, what should you do? Remember and use the qualitative version pay close attention to the prior probability, i.e., overuse the base rate!

7 How safe is airline travel? or, more generally how save is the world? Before Fall 2001, each of us had an opinion on how safe it is to fly on airlines (our prior) On 9/11/01, four planes crash, killing all 246 on board them (new info) followed by vivid news on terrorists other attempts to bomb planes and airports Now, how safe, in your revised opinion, is it to fly on airlines? (posterior) Airline Travel: Debiasing Questions How often do commercial planes crash (per trip/ per mile flown)? What is the historical evidence on airlines safety vs. other transport? Has the world changed since 9/11? Do the crashes suggest that safety will be worse or better or no change at all? Survey:Can you tell a fair from a biased coin? Trending vs. Mean-Reverting Often we, as decision makers, are faced with the task of deciding whether a trend is starting... How do we think about this problem? Technically, it is serial correlation in stochastic processes What does that mean? Let X be a binomial flip, whichever occurs, so X is either { H, T } Focus on Prob( X t+1 X t ) The Streak Survey To what extent is a series of data (streak strings included) generated by a specific process (trending, reverting, and random)? A slightly complicated Bayes Rule problem... Suppose I told you I have a special coin, and I have no idea whether the coin is a fair coin (p=.5) or a reverting coin (p =.1 or.3) or a trending coin (p=.7 or.9) What should your prior probability be on this coin? Before you get data, you should have a diffuse prior

8 Trending vs. Mean-Reverting (2) If Prob( X t+1 X t ) =.5 then Random If Prob( X t+1 X t ) =.7 then Trending 1 (weakly) If Prob( X t+1 X t ) =.9 then Trending 2 (strongly) If Prob( X t+1 X t ) =.3 then Mean Reverting 1 (weakly) (If Prob( X t+1 X t ) =.1 then Mean Reverting 2 (strongly) Next Week... Readings... After Class next week is better... Influence (red cover) is a great book We ll talk about it week after next Will take 5-6 hours total, start now... There will be a survey, please try to do by Sunday night. I will send you a reminder...

### The Evolution of Random Phenomena

The Evolution of Random Phenomena A Look at Markov Chains Glen Wang glenw@uchicago.edu Splash! Chicago: Winter Cascade 2012 Lecture 1: What is Randomness? What is randomness? Can you think of some examples

### Exploration. CS : Deep Reinforcement Learning Sergey Levine

Exploration CS 294-112: Deep Reinforcement Learning Sergey Levine Class Notes 1. Homework 4 due on Wednesday 2. Project proposal feedback sent Today s Lecture 1. What is exploration? Why is it a problem?

T894 Mathematics Success Grade 7 [OBJECTIVE] The student will find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulations. [PREREQUISITE SKILLS] Simple probability,

### No Parent Left Behind

No Parent Left Behind Navigating the Special Education Universe SUSAN M. BREFACH, Ed.D. Page i Introduction How To Know If This Book Is For You Parents have become so convinced that educators know what

### How to make your research useful and trustworthy the three U s and the CRITIC

How to make your research useful and trustworthy the three U s and the CRITIC Michael Wood University of Portsmouth Business School http://woodm.myweb.port.ac.uk/sl/researchmethods.htm August 2015 Introduction...

### A Pumpkin Grows. Written by Linda D. Bullock and illustrated by Debby Fisher

GUIDED READING REPORT A Pumpkin Grows Written by Linda D. Bullock and illustrated by Debby Fisher KEY IDEA This nonfiction text traces the stages a pumpkin goes through as it grows from a seed to become

### Getting Started with Deliberate Practice

Getting Started with Deliberate Practice Most of the implementation guides so far in Learning on Steroids have focused on conceptual skills. Things like being able to form mental images, remembering facts

### Case study Norway case 1

Case study Norway case 1 School : B (primary school) Theme: Science microorganisms Dates of lessons: March 26-27 th 2015 Age of students: 10-11 (grade 5) Data sources: Pre- and post-interview with 1 teacher

### INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS (Economics ) Prof. Klaus Nehring Spring Syllabus

INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS (Economics 190-01) Prof. Klaus Nehring Spring 2003 Syllabus Office: 1110 SSHB, 752-3379. Office Hours (tentative): T 10:00-12:00, W 4:10-5:10. Prerequisites: Math 16A,

### Exchange report & National Chengchi University Taipei, Taiwan Spring 2017

Exchange report 483698 & 423742 National Chengchi University Taipei, Taiwan Spring 2017 1. Preparing for the exchange After we received the confirmation from Aalto University that we ll spend the next

### The Good Judgment Project: A large scale test of different methods of combining expert predictions

The Good Judgment Project: A large scale test of different methods of combining expert predictions Lyle Ungar, Barb Mellors, Jon Baron, Phil Tetlock, Jaime Ramos, Sam Swift The University of Pennsylvania

### Chapter 9: Conducting Interviews

Chapter 9: Conducting Interviews Chapter 9: Conducting Interviews Chapter Outline: 9.1 Interviewing: A Matter of Styles 9.2 Preparing for the Interview 9.3 Example of a Legal Interview 9.1 INTERVIEWING:

### Part I. Figuring out how English works

9 Part I Figuring out how English works 10 Chapter One Interaction and grammar Grammar focus. Tag questions Introduction. How closely do you pay attention to how English is used around you? For example,

### The Agile Mindset. Linda Rising.

The Agile Mindset Linda Rising linda@lindarising.org www.lindarising.org @RisingLinda Do you mostly agree or mostly disagree with the following Intelligence is something very basic that you really can't

### The Role of School Libraries in Elementary and Secondary Education

The Role of School Libraries in Elementary and Secondary Education Dr. Susan Neuman Assistant Secretary for Elementary and Secondary Education United States Department of Education To a great extent, this

### THE MAN BEHIND THE LEGEND

THE MAN BEHIND THE LEGEND The South owns many famous legends and new stories become legends as the years go by. There is a special legend which concerns a Charleston, S.C. native and a North Carolina family.

### Curriculum Design Project with Virtual Manipulatives. Gwenanne Salkind. George Mason University EDCI 856. Dr. Patricia Moyer-Packenham

Curriculum Design Project with Virtual Manipulatives Gwenanne Salkind George Mason University EDCI 856 Dr. Patricia Moyer-Packenham Spring 2006 Curriculum Design Project with Virtual Manipulatives Table

### Faculty Schedule Preference Survey Results

Faculty Schedule Preference Survey Results Surveys were distributed to all 199 faculty mailboxes with information about moving to a 16 week calendar followed by asking their calendar schedule. Objective

### One Way Draw a quick picture.

Name Multiply Tens, Hundreds, and Thousands Essential Question How does understanding place value help you multiply tens, hundreds, and thousands? Lesson 2.3 Number and Operations in Base Ten 4.NBT.5 Also

### STAT 220 Midterm Exam, Friday, Feb. 24

STAT 220 Midterm Exam, Friday, Feb. 24 Name Please show all of your work on the exam itself. If you need more space, use the back of the page. Remember that partial credit will be awarded when appropriate.

### Contents. Foreword... 5

Contents Foreword... 5 Chapter 1: Addition Within 0-10 Introduction... 6 Two Groups and a Total... 10 Learn Symbols + and =... 13 Addition Practice... 15 Which is More?... 17 Missing Items... 19 Sums with

### Initial English Language Training for Controllers and Pilots. Mr. John Kennedy École Nationale de L Aviation Civile (ENAC) Toulouse, France.

Initial English Language Training for Controllers and Pilots Mr. John Kennedy École Nationale de L Aviation Civile (ENAC) Toulouse, France Summary All French trainee controllers and some French pilots

### EDEXCEL FUNCTIONAL SKILLS PILOT. Maths Level 2. Chapter 7. Working with probability

Working with probability 7 EDEXCEL FUNCTIONAL SKILLS PILOT Maths Level 2 Chapter 7 Working with probability SECTION K 1 Measuring probability 109 2 Experimental probability 111 3 Using tables to find the

### Virtually Anywhere Episodes 1 and 2. Teacher s Notes

Virtually Anywhere Episodes 1 and 2 Geeta and Paul are final year Archaeology students who don t get along very well. They are working together on their final piece of coursework, and while arguing over

### Simple Random Sample (SRS) & Voluntary Response Sample: Examples: A Voluntary Response Sample: Examples: Systematic Sample Best Used When

Simple Random Sample (SRS) & Voluntary Response Sample: In statistics, a simple random sample is a group of people who have been chosen at random from the general population. A simple random sample is

### ACCOUNTING FOR MANAGERS BU-5190-AU7 Syllabus

HEALTH CARE ADMINISTRATION MBA ACCOUNTING FOR MANAGERS BU-5190-AU7 Syllabus Winter 2010 P LYMOUTH S TATE U NIVERSITY, C OLLEGE OF B USINESS A DMINISTRATION 1 Page 2 PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY College of

### Law Professor's Proposal for Reporting Sexual Violence Funded in Virginia, The Hatchet

Law Professor John Banzhaf s Novel Approach for Investigating and Adjudicating Allegations of Rapes and Other Sexual Assaults at Colleges About to be Tested in Virginia Law Professor's Proposal for Reporting

### COMMUNICATION & NETWORKING. How can I use the phone and to communicate effectively with adults?

1 COMMUNICATION & NETWORKING Phone and E-mail Etiquette The BIG Idea How can I use the phone and e-mail to communicate effectively with adults? AGENDA Approx. 45 minutes I. Warm Up (5 minutes) II. Phone

### File # for photo

File #6883458 for photo -------- I got interested in Neuroscience and its applications to learning when I read Norman Doidge s book The Brain that Changes itself. I was reading the book on our family vacation

### Section 7, Unit 4: Sample Student Book Activities for Teaching Listening

Section 7, Unit 4: Sample Student Book Activities for Teaching Listening I. ACTIVITIES TO PRACTICE THE SOUND SYSTEM 1. Listen and Repeat for elementary school students. It could be done as a pre-listening

### WE GAVE A LAWYER BASIC MATH SKILLS, AND YOU WON T BELIEVE WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

WE GAVE A LAWYER BASIC MATH SKILLS, AND YOU WON T BELIEVE WHAT HAPPENED NEXT PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF RANDOM SAMPLING IN ediscovery By Matthew Verga, J.D. INTRODUCTION Anyone who spends ample time working

### Lecture 1: Machine Learning Basics

1/69 Lecture 1: Machine Learning Basics Ali Harakeh University of Waterloo WAVE Lab ali.harakeh@uwaterloo.ca May 1, 2017 2/69 Overview 1 Learning Algorithms 2 Capacity, Overfitting, and Underfitting 3

### Should a business have the right to ban teenagers?

practice the task Image Credits: Photodisc/Getty Images Should a business have the right to ban teenagers? You will read: You will write: a newspaper ad An Argumentative Essay Munchy s Promise a business

### PREP S SPEAKER LISTENER TECHNIQUE COACHING MANUAL

1 PREP S SPEAKER LISTENER TECHNIQUE COACHING MANUAL IMPORTANCE OF THE SPEAKER LISTENER TECHNIQUE The Speaker Listener Technique (SLT) is a structured communication strategy that promotes clarity, understanding,

### Major Milestones, Team Activities, and Individual Deliverables

Major Milestones, Team Activities, and Individual Deliverables Milestone #1: Team Semester Proposal Your team should write a proposal that describes project objectives, existing relevant technology, engineering

### writing good objectives lesson plans writing plan objective. lesson. writings good. plan plan good lesson writing writing. plan plan objective

Writing good objectives lesson plans. Write only what you think, writing good objectives lesson plans. Become lesson to our custom essay good writing and plan Free Samples to check the quality of papers

### MinE 382 Mine Power Systems Fall Semester, 2014

MinE 382 Mine Power Systems Fall Semester, 2014 Tuesday & Thursday, 9:30 a.m. 10:45 a.m., Room 109 MRB Instructor: Dr. Mark F. Sindelar, P.E. Room 233 MRB (center office in the Mine Design Lab) Mining

### The Teenage Brain and Making Responsible Decisions About Sex

Rvsd 2/1/12 Lesson Goals Review What We Know About the Teenage Brain Review the Decision Making Model Discuss the Role that Values play in Supporting Good Decision Making Understand How Emotions Can Interfere

### Grade 2: Using a Number Line to Order and Compare Numbers Place Value Horizontal Content Strand

Grade 2: Using a Number Line to Order and Compare Numbers Place Value Horizontal Content Strand Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills (TEKS): (2.1) Number, operation, and quantitative reasoning. The student

### How People Learn Physics

How People Learn Physics Edward F. (Joe) Redish Dept. Of Physics University Of Maryland AAPM, Houston TX, Work supported in part by NSF grants DUE #04-4-0113 and #05-2-4987 Teaching complex subjects 2

### Edexcel GCSE. Statistics 1389 Paper 1H. June Mark Scheme. Statistics Edexcel GCSE

Edexcel GCSE Statistics 1389 Paper 1H June 2007 Mark Scheme Edexcel GCSE Statistics 1389 NOTES ON MARKING PRINCIPLES 1 Types of mark M marks: method marks A marks: accuracy marks B marks: unconditional

### Association Between Categorical Variables

Student Outcomes Students use row relative frequencies or column relative frequencies to informally determine whether there is an association between two categorical variables. Lesson Notes In this lesson,

### Multiple Intelligence Teaching Strategy Response Groups

Multiple Intelligence Teaching Strategy Response Groups Steps at a Glance 1 2 3 4 5 Create and move students into Response Groups. Give students resources that inspire critical thinking. Ask provocative

### WITNESS STATEMENT. Very good. If you would just spell your name for me please?

WITNESS STATEMENT Jack Bisland Dep. Michael Sawicki Ok today s date is December 21 st, 2010 the time is approximately 1:55 PM. This will be a recorded interview with Dep. Michael Sawicki. Present during

### UNDERSTANDING DECISION-MAKING IN RUGBY By. Dave Hadfield Sport Psychologist & Coaching Consultant Wellington and Hurricanes Rugby.

UNDERSTANDING DECISION-MAKING IN RUGBY By Dave Hadfield Sport Psychologist & Coaching Consultant Wellington and Hurricanes Rugby. Dave Hadfield is one of New Zealand s best known and most experienced sports

### Changing User Attitudes to Reduce Spreadsheet Risk

Changing User Attitudes to Reduce Spreadsheet Risk Dermot Balson Perth, Australia Dermot.Balson@Gmail.com ABSTRACT A business case study on how three simple guidelines: 1. make it easy to check (and maintain)

Putting It All Together: Middle School Examples 7 th Grade Math 7 th Grade Science SAM REHEARD, DC 99 7th Grade Math DIFFERENTATION AROUND THE WORLD My first teaching experience was actually not as a Teach

### Mathematics process categories

Mathematics process categories All of the UK curricula define multiple categories of mathematical proficiency that require students to be able to use and apply mathematics, beyond simple recall of facts

### Kindergarten Lessons for Unit 7: On The Move Me on the Map By Joan Sweeney

Kindergarten Lessons for Unit 7: On The Move Me on the Map By Joan Sweeney Aligned with the Common Core State Standards in Reading, Speaking & Listening, and Language Written & Prepared for: Baltimore

### Interactive Whiteboard

50 Graphic Organizers for the Interactive Whiteboard Whiteboard-ready graphic organizers for reading, writing, math, and more to make learning engaging and interactive by Jennifer Jacobson & Dottie Raymer

### 4-3 Basic Skills and Concepts

4-3 Basic Skills and Concepts Identifying Binomial Distributions. In Exercises 1 8, determine whether the given procedure results in a binomial distribution. For those that are not binomial, identify at

### Maths Games Resource Kit - Sample Teaching Problem Solving

Teaching Problem Solving This sample is an extract from the first 2015 contest resource kit. The full kit contains additional example questions and solution methods. Rationale and Syllabus Outcomes Learning

### Consequences of Your Good Behavior Free & Frequent Praise

Statement of Purpose The aim of this classroom is to be a comfortable, respectful and friendly atmosphere in which we can learn about social studies. It is okay if you make mistakes because it is often

### Developing Grammar in Context

Developing Grammar in Context intermediate with answers Mark Nettle and Diana Hopkins PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United

### Homebase Notes 5/1/2017

Homebase Notes 5/1/2017 Congratulations to The IRCHS Prom Court Winners: King: Dawson Lane Queen: Sophia Faust Prince: Ryan Nelson Princess: Giovanna Mompremier Vero Beach Museum of Art Competition: This

### Diagnostic Test. Middle School Mathematics

Diagnostic Test Middle School Mathematics Copyright 2010 XAMonline, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by

### By Merrill Harmin, Ph.D.

Inspiring DESCA: A New Context for Active Learning By Merrill Harmin, Ph.D. The key issue facing today s teachers is clear: Compared to years past, fewer students show up ready for responsible, diligent

### Name: Class: Date: ID: A

Name: Class: _ Date: _ Test Review Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. Members of a high school club sold hamburgers at a baseball game to

### Characteristics of Functions

Characteristics of Functions Unit: 01 Lesson: 01 Suggested Duration: 10 days Lesson Synopsis Students will collect and organize data using various representations. They will identify the characteristics

### Justin Raisner December 2010 EdTech 503

Justin Raisner December 2010 EdTech 503 INSTRUCTIONAL DESIGN PROJECT: ADOBE INDESIGN LAYOUT SKILLS For teaching basic indesign skills to student journalists who will edit the school newspaper. TABLE OF

### Theory of Probability

Theory of Probability Class code MATH-UA 9233-001 Instructor Details Prof. David Larman Room 806,25 Gordon Street (UCL Mathematics Department). Class Details Fall 2013 Thursdays 1:30-4-30 Location to be

### COMM 210 Principals of Public Relations Loyola University Department of Communication. Course Syllabus Spring 2016

COMM 210 Principals of Public Relations Loyola University Department of Communication Course Syllabus Spring 2016 Instructor: Veronica Marshall Course Schedule: Email: vmarshall@luc.edu Tuesdays and Thursdays

### Objectives. Chapter 2: The Representation of Knowledge. Expert Systems: Principles and Programming, Fourth Edition

Chapter 2: The Representation of Knowledge Expert Systems: Principles and Programming, Fourth Edition Objectives Introduce the study of logic Learn the difference between formal logic and informal logic

### MARKETING MANAGEMENT II: MARKETING STRATEGY (MKTG 613) Section 007

MARKETING MANAGEMENT II: MARKETING STRATEGY (MKTG 613) Section 007 February 2017 COURSE DESCRIPTION, REQUIREMENTS AND ASSIGNMENTS Professor David J. Reibstein Objectives Building upon Marketing 611, this

### The One Minute Preceptor: 5 Microskills for One-On-One Teaching

The One Minute Preceptor: 5 Microskills for One-On-One Teaching Acknowledgements This monograph was developed by the MAHEC Office of Regional Primary Care Education, Asheville, North Carolina. It was developed

### Experience Corps. Mentor Toolkit

Experience Corps Mentor Toolkit 2 AARP Foundation Experience Corps Mentor Toolkit June 2015 Christian Rummell Ed. D., Senior Researcher, AIR 3 4 Contents Introduction and Overview...6 Tool 1: Definitions...8

### MADERA SCIENCE FAIR 2013 Grades 4 th 6 th Project due date: Tuesday, April 9, 8:15 am Parent Night: Tuesday, April 16, 6:00 8:00 pm

MADERA SCIENCE FAIR 2013 Grades 4 th 6 th Project due date: Tuesday, April 9, 8:15 am Parent Night: Tuesday, April 16, 6:00 8:00 pm Why participate in the Science Fair? Science fair projects give students

### The feasibility, delivery and cost effectiveness of drink driving interventions: A qualitative analysis of professional stakeholders

Abstract The feasibility, delivery and cost effectiveness of drink driving interventions: A qualitative analysis of Miss Hollie Wilson, Dr Gavan Palk, Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety Queensland

CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT Mathematics Assessment Project CLASSROOM CHALLENGES A Formative Assessment Lesson Evaluating Statements About Probability Mathematics Assessment Resource Service University of Nottingham

### Measures of the Location of the Data

OpenStax-CNX module m46930 1 Measures of the Location of the Data OpenStax College This work is produced by OpenStax-CNX and licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0 The common measures

### Teachers College Reading and Writing Project

1 Unit Three Readers Use Super Powers to Read Everything in the Classroom and Beyond November/December (November Level 3 Reading Benchmark: A/B with a book introduction) Welcome to the Unit This is the

### New Paths to Learning with Chromebooks

Thought Leadership Paper Samsung New Paths to Learning with Chromebooks Economical, cloud-connected computer alternatives open new opportunities for every student Research provided by As Computers Play

### TUESDAYS/THURSDAYS, NOV. 11, 2014-FEB. 12, 2015 x COURSE NUMBER 6520 (1)

MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS David.surdam@uni.edu PROFESSOR SURDAM 204 CBB TUESDAYS/THURSDAYS, NOV. 11, 2014-FEB. 12, 2015 x3-2957 COURSE NUMBER 6520 (1) This course is designed to help MBA students become familiar

### Critical Thinking in the Workplace. for City of Tallahassee Gabrielle K. Gabrielli, Ph.D.

Critical Thinking in the Workplace for City of Tallahassee Gabrielle K. Gabrielli, Ph.D. Purpose The purpose of this training is to provide: Tools and information to help you become better critical thinkers

### Common Core Exemplar for English Language Arts and Social Studies: GRADE 1

The Common Core State Standards and the Social Studies: Preparing Young Students for College, Career, and Citizenship Common Core Exemplar for English Language Arts and Social Studies: Why We Need Rules

### Multi-genre Writing Assignment

Multi-genre Writing Assignment for Peter and the Starcatchers Context: The following is an outline for the culminating project for the unit on Peter and the Starcatchers. This is a multi-genre project.

### Occupational Therapy and Increasing independence

Occupational Therapy and Increasing independence Kristen Freitag OTR/L Keystone AEA kfreitag@aea1.k12.ia.us This power point will match the presentation. All glitches were worked out. Who knows, but I

### How we look into complaints What happens when we investigate

How we look into complaints What happens when we investigate We make final decisions about complaints that have not been resolved by the NHS in England, UK government departments and some other UK public

LEADERSHIP AND COMMUNICATION SKILLS DEGREE: BACHELOR IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DEGREE COURSE YEAR: 1 ST 1º SEMESTER 2º SEMESTER CATEGORY: BASIC COMPULSORY OPTIONAL NO. OF CREDITS (ECTS): 3 LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

### By Laurence Capron and Will Mitchell, Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press, 2012.

Copyright Academy of Management Learning and Education Reviews Build, Borrow, or Buy: Solving the Growth Dilemma By Laurence Capron and Will Mitchell, Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press, 2012. 256

### Thesis-Proposal Outline/Template

Thesis-Proposal Outline/Template Kevin McGee 1 Overview This document provides a description of the parts of a thesis outline and an example of such an outline. It also indicates which parts should be

### Dale Carnegie Final Results Package. For. Dale Carnegie Course DC218 Graduated 6/19/13

Dale Carnegie Final Results Package For Dale Carnegie Course DC218 Graduated 6/19/13 Final Assessment Not Anonymous Conducted June 2013 Participants rated themselves in the following categories (On a scale

### IN THIS UNIT YOU LEARN HOW TO: SPEAKING 1 Work in pairs. Discuss the questions. 2 Work with a new partner. Discuss the questions.

6 1 IN THIS UNIT YOU LEARN HOW TO: ask and answer common questions about jobs talk about what you re doing at work at the moment talk about arrangements and appointments recognise and use collocations

### Career Series Interview with Dr. Dan Costa, a National Program Director for the EPA

Dr. Dan Costa is the National Program Director for the Air, Climate, and Energy Research Program in the Office of Research and Development of the Environmental Protection Agency. Dr. Costa received his

### International Seminar: Dates, Locations, and Course Descriptions

International Seminar: Dates, Locations, and Course Descriptions The Executive MBA Programs at Columbia Business School offer several International Seminar course options in different international locations.

### MATH 1A: Calculus I Sec 01 Winter 2017 Room E31 MTWThF 8:30-9:20AM

Instructor: Amanda Lien Office: S75b Office Hours: MTWTh 11:30AM-12:20PM Contact: lienamanda@fhda.edu COURSE DESCRIPTION MATH 1A: Calculus I Sec 01 Winter 2017 Room E31 MTWThF 8:30-9:20AM Fundamentals

### Navigating the PhD Options in CMS

Navigating the PhD Options in CMS This document gives an overview of the typical student path through the four Ph.D. programs in the CMS department ACM, CDS, CS, and CMS. Note that it is not a replacement

From Your Friends at The MAILBOX Grades 5 6 TEC916 High-Interest Math Problems to Reinforce Your Curriculum Supports NCTM standards Strengthens problem-solving and basic math skills Reinforces key problem-solving

### Presented by Paula Kordic, College Now Coordinator August 8, 2016 College Now Orientation

Presented by Paula Kordic, College Now Coordinator August 8, 2016 College Now Orientation MY FAMILY MISS MING AND MR. MAGOO 6 QUESTIONS YOU NEED TO ANSWER 1. How is college different from high school?

### SMARTboard: The SMART Way To Engage Students

SMARTboard: The SMART Way To Engage Students Emily Goettler 2nd Grade Gray s Woods Elementary School State College Area School District esg5016@psu.edu Penn State Professional Development School Intern

### Testing A Moving Target: How Do We Test Machine Learning Systems? Peter Varhol Technology Strategy Research, USA

Testing A Moving Target: How Do We Test Machine Learning Systems? Peter Varhol Technology Strategy Research, USA Testing a Moving Target How Do We Test Machine Learning Systems? Peter Varhol, Technology

### a) analyse sentences, so you know what s going on and how to use that information to help you find the answer.

Tip Sheet I m going to show you how to deal with ten of the most typical aspects of English grammar that are tested on the CAE Use of English paper, part 4. Of course, there are many other grammar points

babysign 7 Answers to 7 frequently asked questions about how babysign can help you. www.babysign.co.uk Questions We Answer 1. If I sign with my baby before she learns to speak won t it delay her ability

### SUPPORTING AND EDUCATING TRAUMATIZED STUDENTS. CSSP Conference 2014 Barb Bieber

SUPPORTING AND EDUCATING TRAUMATIZED STUDENTS CSSP Conference 2014 Barb Bieber IS TRAUMA AN EPIDEMIC? It s widespread - affecting more than 20% of the population It s effects are far-reaching It s influences

### Thinking Maps for Organizing Thinking

Ann Delores Sean Thinking Maps for Organizing Thinking Roosevelt High School Students and Teachers share their reflections on the use of Thinking Maps in Social Studies and other Disciplines Students Sean:

### The lab is designed to remind you how to work with scientific data (including dealing with uncertainty) and to review experimental design.

Name: Partner(s): Lab #1 The Scientific Method Due 6/25 Objective The lab is designed to remind you how to work with scientific data (including dealing with uncertainty) and to review experimental design.