Published by Macmillan in association with the International Institute for Strategic Studies

Transcription

1 Published by Macmillan in association with the International Institute for Strategic Studies STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 18 Adam Roberts NATIONS IN ARMS: The Theory and Practice of Territorial Defence 20 Lawrence Freedman THE EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR STRATEGY (second edition) 23 Paul Dibb THE SOVIET UNION: The Incomplete Superpower 24 Donald C. Daniel ANTI-SUBMARINE WARFARE AND SUPERPOWER STRATEGIC STABILITY 25 Hedley Bull HEDLEY BULL ON ARMS CONTROL 26 Jonathan Alford and Kenneth Hunt (editors) EUROPE IN THE WESTERN ALLIANCE: Towards a European Defence Entity? 28 Robert Scott Jaster THE DEFENCE OF WHITE POWER: South African Foreign Policy under Pressure 29 Alan James PEACEKEEPING IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 30 Ivo H. Daalder STRATEGIC DEFENCE DEPLOYMENT OPTIONS: Criteria and Evaluation INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES CONFERENCE PAPERS Christoph Bertram (editor) 1 NEW CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND EAST-WEST SECURITY 2 PROSPECTS OF SOVIET POWER IN THE 1980s 3 THE FUTURE OF STRATEGIC DETERRENCE 4 THIRD-WORLD CONFLICT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 5 AMERICA'S SECURITY IN THE 1980s 6 DEFENCE AND CONSENSUS: The Domestic Aspects of Western Security

2 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES CONFERENCE PAPERS (cont) Robert O'Neill (editor) 7 THE CONDUCT OF EAST-WEST RELATIONS IN THE 1980s 8 NEW TECHNOLOGY AND WESTERN SECURITY POLICY 9 DOCTRINE, THE ALLIANCE AND ARMS CONTROL 10 EAST ASIA, THE WEST AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 11 PROSPECTS FOR SECURITY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN Francois Heisbourg (editor) 12 THE CHANGING STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE 13 THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGE IN THE SOVIET UNION Barry Buzan AN INTRODUCTION TO STRATEGIC STUDIES: Military Technology and International Relations Lawrence Freedman (editor) MILITARY POWER IN EUROPE: Essays in Memory of Jonathan Alford Fran<;ois de Rose EUROPEAN SECURITY AND FRANCE Series Standing Order If you would like to receive future titles in this series as they are published, you can make use of our standing order facility. To place a standing order please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address and the name of the series. Please state with which title you wish to begin your standing order. (If you live outside the UK we may not have the rights for your area, in which case we will forward your order to the publisher concerned.) Standing Order Service, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, HoundmiIIs, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG212XS, England.

3 The Strategic Implications of Change in the Soviet Union Edited by Fran<.;ois Heisbourg in association with the M Palgrave Macmillan

4 International Institute for Strategic Studies 1990 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 1990 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place, London WCIE 7DP Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1990 Published by MACMILLAN ACADEMIC AND PROFESSIONAL LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data The Strategic implications of change in the Soviet Union. 1. Soviet Union. Political events I. Heisbourg, Franc;oise ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI /

5 Contents Preface Uncertainty and Opportunity in an Era of East-West Change Johan J0rgen Holst Minister of Defence, Norway The Origins of Change in the Soviet Union Academician Oleg T. Bogomolov Director, Institute of Economics of the World Socialist System, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Moscow Can Change be Sustained? Dr Marshall Shulman Professor Emeritus of International Relations, W. Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the USSR, Columbia University, New York The Future of NATO and the Warsaw Pact Strategy: Paper I Dr Willem F. van Eekelen Secretary General of the Western European Union The Future of NATO and the Warsaw Pact Strategy: Paper II Dr Andrey A. Kokoshin Deputy Director, Institute of the USA and Canada, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Moscow 60 After Bipolarity: Eastern and Western Europe: Between Two Ages Dr Josef Joffe Foreign editor, Siiddeutsche Zeitung, Munich Transition of the East: A New Beginning for Europe Dr Andrzej Karkoszka Research Fellow, Polish Institute of International Affairs, Warsaw The Economic Dimensions of East-West Relations: Paper I Professor Michael Kaser Director, Institute of Russian, Soviet and East European Studies, University of Oxford The Economic Dimensions of East-West Relations: Paper II Dr Laszlo Lang Deputy Director, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs

6 vi CONTENTS The Super-power Dialogue: Prospects and Limits Dr Lewis A. Dunn Assistant Director, Negotiations and Planning Division, Science Applications International Corporation; former Assistant Director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency 117 The USSR and the Asia-Pacific Region: Paper I Professor V. P. Lukin Deputy Chief of the Directorate of Evaluations and Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Moscow 131 The USSR and the Asia-Pacific Region: Paper II Professor Michio Royama Professor of International Relations, Sophia University, Tokyo 147 Regional Conflict: Co-operation and Competition: Paper I Dr Andrei V. Kozirev Director of International Organizations Directorate, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Moscow 159 Regional Conflict: Co-operation and Competition: Paper II Dr Stephen F. Larrabee Distinguished Scholar-in-Residence, Institute for East-West Security Studies, New York 163 Implications and Options for the West Professor Thierry de Montbrial Director, French Institute of International Relations; Professor of Economics and Chairman, Department of Economics, Polytechnic, Paris Conclusion Francois Heisbourg Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies, London Index

7 Preface The papers contained in this volume were first presented to the 31st IISS Annual Conference, held in Oslo, Norway from 14 to 17 September They have been amended and revised in the light of comment and discussion at the Conference. The subject of the Conference was The Strategic Implications of Change in the Soviet Union, and the paper-givers and participants included, for the first time in some years, experts from the USSR and Eastern Europe. Following an introductory overview by the Norwegian Minister of Defence, three plenary sessions addressed, respectively, the origins of change in the Soviet Union, the sustainability. of change, and the implications and options for the West. There were six conference committees which discussed: the future of NATO and Warsaw Pact strategy; the impact of change in Eastern and Western Europe; the economic dimension of East-West relations; the USSR and the Asia-Pacific region; co-operation and competition in regional conflict; and the prospects for and limits of the super-power dialogue. The Conference was concluded with a review of the issues debated. The Conference was held during a period of dramatic change in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Soviet Union. In factual terms the papers reflect the state of affairs at the time they were written and revised - September and October since when events have, in many countries and many respects, moved on. While some of the facts have, therefore, been overtaken by events, the key features of the papers - their analysis of the factors underlying change, its likely course, and its implications for all the principal areas of strategic significance - remain of undiminished relevance.