ES STRUKTŪRFONDU IETEKMES UZ LATVIJAS MAKROEKONOMISKIEM RĀDĪTĀJIEM EKONOMETRISKĀ MODELĒŠANA

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1 Latvijas Universitāte Ekonomikas un vadības fakultāte Sekcija Ekonometrija un kvantitatīvās analīzes metodes vadības lēmumu pieņemšanai ekonomikā ES STRUKTŪRFONDU IETEKMES UZ LATVIJAS MAKROEKONOMISKIEM RĀDĪTĀJIEM EKONOMETRISKĀ MODELĒŠANA gada 3. februārī Vadības zinību bakalaura studiju programmas Vides un uzņēmējdarbības vadības studiju virziena 4. kursa students Aleksandrs Dahs

2 PĒTĪJUMA MĒRĶIS Aplūkot QUEST III R&D modeļa izmantošanas praktiskās iespējas ES fondu potenciālās ietekmes modelēšanai.

3 INSTRUMENTĀRIJA IZVĒLE Partial Equilibrium General equilibrium Computable general equilibrium Applied general equilibrium Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium Real business cycle New-Keynesian Quest III Quest III R&D

4 PĒTĪJUMA IEROBEŽOJUMI Nepietiekamas prasmes un pieredze darbā ar DSGE modelēšanas datorprogrammām Maza attiecīgas tematikas literatūras un materiālu pieejamība (īpaši latviešu val.) Latvijas apstākļiem piemērotu modeļa parametru trūkums

5 ES FONDU POLITIKAS GALVENĀS TENDENCES [1/3] GDP growth Latvija % % mil. Lats GDP growth European Union (27 countries) % Government spendings LV (mil. Lats) Latvijas IKP pieaugums (2000. g. salīdzināmās cenās) un valdības izdevumi Avots: EUROSTAT dati autora apkopojums

6 ES FONDU POLITIKAS GALVENĀS TENDENCES [2/3] Vairāki gada plānošanas perioda ES fondu darbības programmu mērķi (inovatīvās darbības veicināšana, darba ražīguma celšana) netika pilnībā sasniegti. Inovatīvās darbības produkcijas daļa kopējā apgrozījumā (%) Darba ražīguma pieaugums attiecībā pret iepriekšējo periodu (%) ES (27) Igaunija Latvija Lietuva Latvia Poland European Union (27 countries) Avots: EUROSTAT dati autora apkopojums

7 ES FONDU POLITIKAS GALVENĀS TENDENCES [3/3] gada plānošanas periodā lielāka nekā iepriekš uzmanība tiek pievērsta cilvēkkapitāla attīstībai un vides aizsardzībai. Pieejamais finansējums pa nozarēm gadu plānošanas periodā Nozare Finansējums LVL Finansējums EUR % 1 Transports/Infrastruktūra % 2 Vide % 3 Uzņēmējdarbība un inovācijas % 4 Izglītība % 5 Nodarbinātība un sociālā iekļaušana % Šādi mērķi tika izvirzīti saskaņā ar uz Lisabonas stratēģijas balstītiem ES ieteikumiem. Avots: ESfond.lv

8 QUEST III R&D STRUKTŪRA [1/2] QUEST III R&D modeļa aprakstītā ekonomika

9 QUEST III R&D STRUKTŪRA [2/2] Autora izstrāde QUEST III R&D modeļa elementu mijiedarbība

10 MODEĻA IEEJAS INFORMĀCIJA [1/3] QUEST tipa modeļos un to elementos ir viegli iekļaut struktūrieguldījumus jaunu zināmo parametru vai kompleksu eksogēno parametru sastāvdaļu formā. Piemērs no QUEST III R&D: Modelī tiek pieņemts, ka investīcijas infrastruktūrā (I tg ) ir proporcionālas gala izlaidei (Y t ) kur ε t IG ES fondu līdzekļi, kas krasi ietekmē valsts investīciju daļu (IGS t ).

11 MODEĻA IEEJAS INFORMĀCIJA [2/3] ES fondu darbības programmās ietverto līdzekļu lielāko daļu QUEST III R&D modelī ir lietderīgi sadalīt divās pamata instrumentu grupās valdības investīcijās (īstermiņa, ilgtermiņa) un valdības izdevumos Pārējie ES fondu līdzekļi modelī tiek ievietoti kā: ražotāju pastāvīgo izmaksu samazinājumi un mācību gadu palielināšanās iedzīvotāju dzīvēs.

12 Varga J., Veld J., A Model-based Analysis of the Impact of Cohesion Policy Expenditure, Esfondi.lv MODEĻA IEEJAS INFORMĀCIJA [3/3] Nozare Daļa % Ietekmētais parametrs modelī 1. TRANSP./INFRASTR., 30% 2. VIDE 17% 3. PILSĒTVIDE 6% 4. VESELĪBA 5% 5. ENERĢĒTIKA 4% Valdības investīciju (ε t IG ) palielinājums vai Valdības izdevumu (G t ) palielinājums (atkarībā no valsts politikas) 6. UZŅĒMĒJDARBĪBA 8% Samazina gala produktu ražotāju 7. TŪRISMS 0.5% pastāvīgās izmaksas (FC Y ) 8. ZINĀTNE 6% Samazina R&D produktu lietotāju 9. INOVĀCIJAS 3% pastāvīgās izmaksas (FC A ) 10. IZGLĪTĪBA 10% 11. NODARBINĀTĪBA 6% 12. KULTŪRA 1% 13. ATBALSTS FONDU VADĪBAI 14. ADMIN. KAPACITĀTES STIPRINĀŠANA 1% 2,5% Kopā 100% Galvenās ES fondu ietekmes sfēras un apjoms Palielina mācību gadu skaitu (Λ ts ) un valdības izdevumus (G t ) Īslaicīgs valdības patēriņa (G t ) palielinājums

13 MODELĒŠANAS REZULTĀTU ANALĪZE [1/3] 1. PIEMĒRS. SABIEDRISKAIS KAPITĀLS UN RAŽĪGUMS Galējā patēriņa preču ražošanas un sabiedriska kapitāla sakarība QUEST III R&D modelī tiek aprakstīta šādi: Modelī ir pieņemts, ka investīcijas sabiedriskajā kapitālā (K tg ) palielina visu faktoru ražīgumu ar eksponenti α G.

14 MODELĒŠANAS REZULTĀTU ANALĪZE [2/3] 1. PIEMĒRS. SABIEDRISKAIS KAPITĀLS UN RAŽĪGUMS (TURP.) QUEST III R&D modelis parāda, ka struktūrieguldījumu politikas panākumi Latvijā, kā arī citās valstīs, ir ievērojami atkarīgi no sabiedriskā un privātā kapitāla ražīguma līmeņa IKP dinamikas scenāriji, pie dažādiem pieņēmumiem par α G vērību Parametru līdzsvarošanās % ES fondi (% no IKP) IKP pieaugums (alphag =0.1) IKP pieaugums (alphag =0.15) IKP pieaugums (alphag =0.5)

15 Nodarb. dinamika % IKP dinamika %* MODELĒŠANAS REZULTĀTU ANALĪZE [1/3] 2. PIEMĒRS. SALĪDZINOŠĀS ANALĪZES IESPĒJAS IKP EE (alphag =0.1) IKP LV (alphag =0.05) IKP LT (alphag =0.05) EE nodarb. LV nodarb. LT nodarb *Nepieciešamu statistisko datu trūkuma dēļ, rādītāju dinamika tiek modelēta gada ES fondu plānošanas perioda finansējuma ietvaros. Korelācijas koef. starp IKP un nodarbinātības dinamiku Igaunija Latvija Lietuva

16 IMPULSU (ŠOKU) REAKCIJU ANALĪZE Ilgtspējīgas ekonomikas attīstības nolūkos ir izdevīgāk izmantot valdības ilgtermiņa investīcijas, kā prioritāro struktūrpolitikas instrumentu. IKP reakcija un valdības izdevumu palielinājumu IKP reakcija uz ilgtermiņa valsts investīciju palielinājumu Autora MATLAB (impulse response analisys) simulācijas ar ticamības intervāliem, kļūda= 0,05

17 RISKI UN NACIONĀLĀ SPECIFIKA Pielāgojot vai veidojot DSGE modeļus jebkurai atsevišķai valstij, ieskaitot Latviju, ir jāņem vērā tās nacionālo specifiku - riskus un unikālus apstākļus. Patēriņa tendences Dabas apstākļi Izglītība Kultūra Reliģija Ekonomikas vēsturiskā specializācija Politika Ēnu ekonomika

18 PROBLĒMAS UN PRIEKŠLIKUMI TO RISINĀŠANAI [1/2] 1. problēma. ES fondu vadības uzraudzības un sadarbības iestādes nespēj organizēt fondu līdzekļu sadali pietiekami efektīvi, kā rezultātā netiek sasniegti attiecīgo darbības programmu vidēja un ilga termiņa mērķi. Risinājums. ES fondu vadības uzraudzības un sadarbības iestādēm, turpmāk balstīt lēmumus par līdzekļu piešķiršanu un sadales struktūru uz specializēto analītisko pētījumu rezultātiem.

19 PROBLĒMAS UN PRIEKŠLIKUMI TO RISINĀŠANAI [2/2] 2. problēma. Latvijas apstākļiem piemērotā un uzdevumam atbilstošā analītiska instrumentārija trūkums. Risinājums. Citur Eiropā veiksmīgi izmantojamu DSGE tipa QUEST III modeļa un tā modifikāciju adoptācija Latvijas apstākļiem. Šo uzdevumu var uzņemties LR Ekonomikas ministrijas ES fondu ieviešanas departaments.

20 AVOTI UN LITERATŪRA 1. Roeger W., Varga J., Veld J. Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulationbased analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth. Brussels : DG ECFIN, Varga J., Veld J. "A Model-based Assessment of the Impact of EU Structural Funds on the New Member States". Brussels : DG ECFIN, Jones C. I. Source of U.S. economic growth in a world of ideas. American Economic Review gada, Sēj. 92(1), lpp Berkley 4. Varga J., Veld J. "A Model-based Analisis of the Impact of Cohesion Policy Expenditure: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model". Brussels : DG ECFIN, Bottazzi L., Peri G. The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovation. Milano : Universita Bocconi, 2005.

21 Ekonometrija un kvantitatīvās analīzes metodes vadības lēmumu pieņemšanai ekonomikā PALDIES PAR UZMANĪBU.

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