MVB Banking. February 21, Questions to be Addressed. How did the U.S. economy performed in 2016 and what is the outlook for 2017?

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1 MVB Banking The U.S. and Washington Region s Economy: What to Expect in 17 and How the The Trump Administration May Impact Near-Term Performance Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Stephen S. Fuller Institute Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University February 1, 17 Questions to be Addressed How did the U.S. economy performed in 1 and what is the outlook for 17? How is the Northern Virginia economy performing? How did the local housing market perform in 1? What is the Washington region s and NVA s economic outlook? 1

2 How did the U.S. economy perform in 1 and what is the outlook for 17? Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* Quarters After Trough *in 199 or 9 Chained Dollars ** Quarters + include the 9 Recession Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 198-Q Q1 1-Q** 9-Q

3 U.S. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs Month-Over-The-Year (s), Jan = +.1M,, -, -, -, -8, Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Ranked by Size in 1 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Information Federal Govt. U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector January 1 January 17-3 (s) Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Total =,13 3

4 % U.S. Unemployment Rate January 9 January 17 Jan =.8% IHS Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (January 17), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change (.) (1.) (1.) (.) (.) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

5 U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change... - (.) (.) (.) (8.) (1.) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU ($/barrel) Brent Crude Spot Price $ per barrel Forecast Sources: IHS Economics (January 17), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

6 (%) Consumer Prices Percent Change, 1 - Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics (January 17), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (%) U.S. Interest Rates Average Annual, 1 - Forecast 3-Yr 1-Yr Treasury Fed Sources: IHS Economics (January 17), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

7 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays (%) Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (January 17), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 17 Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (January 17), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 7

8 How is the Northern Virginia economy performing? (s) Annual Change 1 8 Washington Metropolitan Area Annual Job Change, -1 Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 8

9 (s) Annual Change 1 8 Northern Virginia Annual Job Change, -1 Annual Month-Over-Year Change Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Ranked by Size in 1 Prof. & Business Services Edu.& Health Services State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality Federal Govt Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector December 1 December 1 (s) Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1 Total = 3, 9

10 (s) Professional and Business Services Jobs Northern Virginia Annual Month Over-the-Year Professional, Scientific & Technical Services & Management Dec 1 Total = 3.9 Administrative & Waste Management Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (s) 8 Education and Health Services Jobs Northern Virginia Annual Month Over-the-Year Dec 1 Total = 19.1 Hospitals Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing & Residential Care Educational Services - - Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1

11 (s) Annual Change Federal Government Jobs Northern Virginia Annual Month-Over-Year Change Dec 1 Total: Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (s) Leisure and Hospitality Services Jobs Northern Virginia Annual Month Over-the-Year Dec 1 Total = 1. Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Entertainment Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 11

12 (%) 1 Washington Metropolitan Area Unemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, DC.7 U.S. 3. MSA 3.3 SMD 3.1 NVA Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU How did the Northern Virginia housing market perform in 1? 1

13 (%) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Northern Virginia Month-Over-Year 1 Jan 17: -1.% Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month Total Listings Per Sale, Washington MSA Jan Each Year PG 1 DC 1 LD PW ARL FFX MONT Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute 13

14 (s of $) Median House Sales Price Northern Virginia Jan 17: $.k Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute (s of $) Average House Sales Price Northern Virginia 3 Single-Family Detached All Types Single-Family Attached Condo 1 Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute 1

15 (%) 3 Annual Change Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia: All Housing Types Annual Month-Over-Year Change Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute What is the Washington region s and Northern Virginia s economic outlook? 1

16 Washington Metropolitan Area Employment Change by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 3, (%) U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 7 1 (Annual % Change) U.S. Washington Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (January 17), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1

17 (%) Washington Area and Sub-State Areas Economic Outlook (GRP), 7- (Annual % Change) Forecast NoVA WMSA Sub MD DC Sources: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Thank you Questions sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu 17