THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL

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THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL October 20, 2016 NH GUBERNATORIAL RACE CLOSE, MOST VOTERS HAVE NOT DEFINITELY DECIDED ON VOTE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/862 2226 www.

1 THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL October 20, 2016 NH GUBERNATORIAL RACE CLOSE, MOST VOTERS HAVE NOT DEFINITELY DECIDED ON VOTE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/ center DURHAM, NH Executive Councilors Chris Sununu and Colin Van Ostern are statistically tied in the New Hampshire Gubernatorial election. Only one third of voters say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Nine hundred and seven (907) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between October 11 and October 17, The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/ 3.3 percent. Included were seven hundred and seventy (770) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/ 3.). NH Gubernatorial Election With less than three weeks remaining until the election, only one third (3) of New Hampshire likely voters say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for in the gubernatorial election, 1 are leaning toward someone, and 5 are still trying to decide. If the election was held today, 4 of New Hampshire likely voters would vote for Van Ostern, 3 would vote for Sununu, would vote for someone else, and 2 are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, the percentages become 4 for Van Ostern, 3 for Sununu, for someone else, and 1 remain undecided. Sununu and Van Ostern are both receiving the support of 7 of voters within their own party, while Sununu holds a slight edge among s (3 3). Governor Van Ostern vs. Sununu Includes Undecided But Leaning Voters Van Ostern Sununu Other Undecided NH Likely Voters (Oct '16) We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

2 Favorability Ratings NH Gubernatorial Candidates The race for Governor is still up for grabs largely because neither candidate is well known to New Hampshire voters. Executive Councilor Chris Sununu is the best known candidate for Governor, but is not very popular in the state. Currently 3 of New Hampshire likely voters have a favorable opinion of Sununu, 3 have an unfavorable opinion, are neutral, and 2 don t know enough about him to have an opinion. Sununu s net favorability (the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion) is, down from +1 in August. Sununu is very popular among s (+4) and very unpopular among s ( 4) while s are divided () Favorability Ratings Chris Sununu May '15 July '15 Oct '15 Feb '16 Apr '16 July '16 LVs Aug. '16 LVs Oct '16 LVs Favorable Unfavorable Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern remains less known than Sununu but is more popular currently 3 of New Hampshire likely voters have a favorable opinion of Van Ostern, 1 have an unfavorable opinion, are neutral, and nearly half (4) don t know enough about him to have an opinion. Van Ostern s net favorability is +, up from + in August. Van Ostern is very popular among s (+5), somewhat popular among s (+1), and somewhat unpopular among s ( 1) Favorability Ratings Colin Van Ostern May '15 July '15 Oct '15 Feb '16 Apr '16 July '16 LVs Aug. '16 LVs Oct '16 LVs Favorable Unfavorable Only of likely voters have a favorable opinion of State Representative and Libertarian candidate Max Abramson, have an unfavorable opinion, are neutral, and 8 don t know enough about them to say. Abramson s net favorability is. Max Abramson Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK

3 Most Important Problem Facing New Hampshire Granite Staters remain very concerned with the drug crisis facing the state currently, 4 of New Hampshire adults cite drug abuse as the most important problem facing the state, followed by jobs and the economy (1), education (), health care (), taxes (), and the state budget (). 5 Most Important Problem Facing NH 4 1 Education Funding Jobs, Economy Taxes Health Care Quality Education State Budget Drug Abuse Gubernatorial Approval Outgoing ic Governor Maggie Hassan, who is running for U.S. Senate, remains relatively popular as she prepares to leave the corner office. In the latest Granite State Poll, 4 of New Hampshire adults say they approve of the job Hassan is doing as governor, 3 disapprove, and 1 are neutral or don t know enough to say. s (7 approve, 1 disapprove) highly approve of Hassan s job performance, while s are divided (3 approve, 3 disapprove) and s disapprove (2 approve, 5 disapprove) Feb. ' Apr. '13 Job Approval Ratings NH Governor Maggie Hassan July '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July ' Oct. '14 Feb. '15 May '15 July '15 Oct '15 Feb ' Apr '16 July '16 Oct. '16 Approve Disapprove

4 Approval of New Hampshire Legislature New Hampshire residents are divided on how the state legislature is performing its job. Currently, 4 of New Hampshire adults approve of how the state legislature is doing its job, 3 disapprove, and 2 are neutral or don t know enough to say. Half of s (5) and s (4) approve of the state legislature, while only 3 of s approve Feb. '12 Apr. '12 Approval Rating NH Legislature Aug. '12 Oct. 4 '12 Oct. 15 '12 Feb. '13 Apr. '13 July '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Approve Apr. '14 July '14 Oct. '14 Feb. '15 Disapprove May ' July ' Oct '15 Feb '16 Apr '16 July '16 3 Oct '16 Right Direction or Wrong Track? New Hampshire residents believe the state, as a whole, is headed in the right direction. Currently, 6 of New Hampshire adults feel the state is heading in the right direction, 2 think the state is seriously off on the wrong track, and are unsure. Majorities of s (7) and s (5) and half of s (5) say the state is headed in the right direction NH Heading in Right Direction or On Wrong Track? Right Direction Wrong Track

5 New Hampshire House of Representatives Likely 2016 New Hampshire voters were asked which party s candidate they planned on supporting in the upcoming election for state representatives. Voters are currently divided on which party to support, with 3 supporting candidates, 4 supporting ic candidates, supporting another party or a mix of s and s, and 1 undecided. When undecided voters were asked which way they were leaning, the percentages become 4 for ic candidates, 3 for candidates, for another party or a mix of s and s, and 1 are still undecided. 5 New Hampshire House of Representatives Generic Ballot With Leaners Other/Mix Undecided Likely 2016 New Hampshire voters are also evenly divided on which party to support for the State Senate, with 3 supporting candidates, 4 supporting ic candidates, supporting another party, and 1 undecided. When undecided voters were asked which way they were leaning, the percentages become 4 for ic candidates, 3 for candidates, for another party, and 1 are still undecided. 5 New Hampshire Senate Generic Ballot With Leaners Other Undecided

6 Currently 4 of likely 2016 New Hampshire voters would support the ic candidate for Executive Council, 3 would support the candidate, and 2 are undecided. Broken down by district, s currently have the advantage in three districts, while s have the advantage in two New Hampshire Executive Council Generic Ballot District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 Other/Undecided

7 Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and funded by WMUR TV, Manchester, NH. Nine hundred and seven (907) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between October 11 and October 17, If a household included more than one adult, the adult who had the most recent birthday was selected to be interviewed. The margin of sampling error is +/ 3.3 percent for the entire sample. Included were seven hundred seventy (770) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE +/ 3.). These MSE s have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 1.. The random sample used in the WMUR Granite State Poll was purchased from Marketing Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non usable numbers. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Additionally, data were weighted by respondent sex, age, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of nonsampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 10. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in crosstabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions. For more information about the methodology used in the WMUR Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) or by at andrew.smith@unh.edu. Granite State Poll, October 2016 Demographics Sex N % Region N % North Country Connecticut Valley Age N % Mass Border to to Manchester Area to and Over Party Registration N % Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg High School or Less Some College College Graduate Party Identification N % Post Graduate

8 Granite State Poll, October 2016 Likely Voter Demographics Sex N % Region N % North Country Connecticut Valley Age N % Mass Border to to Manchester Area to and Over 143 Party Registration N % Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg High School or Less Some College College Graduate Party Identification N % Post Graduate

9 Gubernatorial Approval GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Hassan is handling her job as governor? Approve Neutral/DK Disapprove (N=) Oct (885) July (514) Apr (606) Feb (663) Oct (575) July (522) May (561) Feb (488) Oct (656) July (647) Apr (492) Jan (560) Oct (649) July (497) Apr (500) Feb (569) Favorability Ratings NH Gubernatorial Candidates Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some candidates running for governor. Just like before as I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person or if you don t know enough about them to say." Executive Councilor Chris Sununu. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know NET (N=) Oct 16 LVs (767) Aug 16 LVs (431) July 16 LVs (467) Apr (618) Feb (684) Oct (581) July (530) May (567) Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know NET (N=) Oct 16 LVs (767) Aug 16 LVs (431) July 16 LVs (465) Apr (619) Feb (685) Oct (582) July (530) May (567) State Representative Max Abramson. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know NET (N=) Oct 16 LVs 8 (767)

10 NH Legislature Approval And generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the way the New Hampshire legislature is handling its job? Approve Neutral/DK Disapprove (N=) Oct (859) July (509) Apr (595) Feb (661) Oct (567) July (517) May (561) Feb (501) Oct (656) July (646) Apr (495) Jan (556) Oct (649) July (504) Apr (498) Feb (571) Oct (584) Oct (634) Aug (566) Apr (533) Feb (522) NH Gubernatorial Election If the 2016 Gubernatorial election was being held today, would you vote for Chris Sununu, the Colin Van Ostern, the some other candidate. or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct 16 Sununu 3 Van Ostern 4 Other Undecided 2 (N=) (676) NH Gubernatorial Election With Leaners Would you say you are leaning towards Chris Sununu, the or Colin Van Ostern, the? ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct 16 Sununu 3 Van Ostern 4 Other Undecided 1 (N=) (673)

11 Most Important Problem Facing New Hampshire Let s turn to the State of New Hampshire There are many problems facing the STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE today. In general, what do you think is the most IMPORTANT problem facing the STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE today? Jobs / Economy Educ. Funding Taxes Health Care Qual. Educ. State Budget Drugs Other/ DK (N=) Oct (868) July (509) Apr (591) Feb (659) Oct (563) July (509) May (540) Feb (467) Oct (644) July (614) Apr (464) Jan (545) Oct (599) July (458) Apr. 13 * 4 (485) Feb (564) Oct * 2 (575) Aug * 2 (541) Apr (518) Feb (509) Oct (548) July (512) Apr (494) Feb (508) Sept (504) July (498) Apr (504) Feb (486) Oct (494) July (551) Apr * 2 (491) Feb (607) Sep * (531) July (504) Apr (496) Feb * 2 (542) Sept (499) July * 2 (488) Apr (501) Feb (527) Sept (499) July (490) Apr (501) Feb (498) Oct (503) July * 2 (496) Apr (487) Feb * 2 (541) July (504) Apr (536) Feb (502) Oct * 2 (490) June (513) Apr * 2 (497) Feb * 2 (644) June (424) Apr (684) Feb (312) Oct * 2 (519)

12 NH Right Direction or Wrong Track Do you think things in New Hampshire are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Don t Know (N=) Oct (890) July (517) Apr (593) Feb (669) Oct (581) July (522) May (562) Feb (501) Oct (666) July (656) Apr (505) Jan (570) Oct (646) July (509) Apr (497) Feb (573) Oct (576) Oct (622) Aug (577) Apr (532) Feb (517) Oct (544) July (503) Apr (491) Feb (517) Sept. ' (511) July (496) Apr (503) Feb (490) Oct (496) July (557) Apr (497) Feb (605) Sept (535) July ' (514) Apr (491) Feb (547) Sept (507) July (500) Apr (506) Feb (524) Sept (509) July (497) Apr (501) Feb (495) Oct (502) July (494) May (488) Feb (535) July (503) Apr (530) Feb (500) Oct (485) Jun (510)

13 Generic NH House Ballot "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for the or ic candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?" ROTATE PARTIES Oct Other Some DEM, Some GOP DK/Undecided 1 (N=) (709) With Leaners Are you leaning toward voting for the candidate to the New Hampshire House or for the ic candidate?" ROTATE PARTIES Oct Other Some DEM, Some GOP DK/Undecided 1 (N=) (709) Generic NH Senate Ballot "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate. Do you plan to vote for the or ic candidate for the New Hampshire Senate... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?" ROTATE PARTIES Oct Other DK/Undecided 1 (N=) (716) With Leaners Are you leaning toward voting for the candidate to the New Hampshire Senate or for the ic candidate?" ROTATE PARTIES Oct Other DK/Undecided 1 (N=) (715)

14 Generic NH Executive Council Ballot And in the election for the Executive Council, do you plan to vote for the ic or candidate for the New Hampshire Executive Council... or do you plan to skip the election for Executive Council this time?" ROTATE PARTIES Oct Other DK/Undecided 2 (N=) (688)

15 Drugs Jobs/ Economy Education Taxes Healthcare Statebudget Other DK/NotSure NHLikelyVoters Registered LikelyVoter Non-LikelyVoter Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore MostImportantProblem innew Hampshire

16 Approve Neutral Disapprove NHResidents Registered LikelyVoter Non-LikelyVoter Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore JobApproval-GovernorMaggieHassan

17 Approve Neutral Disapprove NHResidents Registered LikelyVoter Non-LikelyVoter Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore JobApproval-NHLegislature

18 RightDirection WrongTrack Don'tKnow NHLikelyVoters 2 6 Registered LikelyVoter Non-LikelyVoter Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore NHGoinginRightDirectionOrO fonwrongtrack?

19 DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardSomeone StilTryingtoDecide NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore DecidedonVoteForNHGovernor

20 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don'tKnow NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried 1stECDistrict 2ndECDistrict 3rdECDistrict 4thECDistrict 5thECDistrict FavorabilityRatings-ChrisSununu

21 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don'tKnow NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried 1stECDistrict 2ndECDistrict 3rdECDistrict 4thECDistrict 5thECDistrict FavorabilityRatings-ColinVanOstern

22 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don'tKnow NHLikelyVoters 8 Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore FavorabilityRatings-MaxAbramson

23 Sununu VanOstern Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters Registered DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided NHGovernor-Sununuvs.VanOstern

24 Sununu VanOstern Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters Registered DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided NHGovernor-Sununuvs.VanOsternwithLeaners

25 Some, Some Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore VoteForNHStateRepresentative

26 Some, Some Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore VoteForNHStateRepresentativeWithLeaners

27 Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore VoteForNHStateSenator

28 Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried Lessthan$30,000 $30,000to$59,999 $60,000to$74,999 $75,000to$99,999 $100,000ormore VoteForNHStateSenatorWithLeaners

29 Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters Registered WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency Maried Divorced/Separated maried 1stECDistrict 2ndECDistrict 3rdECDistrict 4thECDistrict 5thECDistrict VoteForNHExecutiveCouncil

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