US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real)

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1 US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) October, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8-- djohnson@ Mali Quintana 8-- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GDP Levels: Nominal & Real GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real GDP ex-government GDP & GNP -7 GDP Components 8 Equipment & Intellectual Property 9 Real US Consumer Spending Real Capital Spending - Real Inventories Real Trade Exports & Imports - Real Government 7 Contributions to GDP Growth 8- Ratios October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

3 Figure. NOMINAL GDP (trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale) GDP Levels: Nominal & Real Figure. REAL GDP (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

4 Figure. GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real US NOMINAL GDP Total (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. US REAL GDP GROWTH & % "STALL SPEED" Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is % "stall speed." Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

5 GDP ex-government. 7. Figure. REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING (trillion dollars, saar) Real GDP Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending Figure. US REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING Real GDP (.) Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending (.) Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

6 Figure 7. REAL GDP & FINAL SALES GDP & GNP Real GDP (.) Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers (.) Figure 8. REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Real GDP (87.) Real GNP (87.) Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

7 8 Figure 9. REAL GDP & Q SEASONAL WEAKNESS (quarterly percent change, saar) GDP & GNP Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year. - Page 7 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

8 Figure. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (billion dollars, saar) GDP Components PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT Equipment Total PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Total Goods Intellectual Property Products NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT: STRUCTURES Total Structures PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES TRADE Exports Imports Services PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT SPENDING Federal State & Local Page 8 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

9 Figure. PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) Information Processing & Equipment Equipment & Intellectual Property Intellectural Property Products Industrial Equipment Software Transportation Equipment Research & Development Other Equipment Entertainment, Literary & Artistic Originals Page 9 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

10 7 Figure. Real US Consumer Spending PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP Total Aug Aug Durables Nondurables Services Aug Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

11 Figure. Real Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Equipment Structures Intellectual Property Products Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

12 Figure. Real Capital Spending NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Intellectual Property Products: Software Research & Development Entertainment, Literary & Artistic Origins Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

13 - - - Figure. INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) Real Inventories MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE RETAIL EX AUTOS RETAIL AUTOS Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

14 Figure 7. Real Trade NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) Figure 8. EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP Exports Imports Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

15 Exports & Imports Figure 9. US: EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billions of dollars, saar) 8 Imports Exports Figure. TRADE DEFICIT (billion dollars, saar) Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil Sep Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. - Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

16 Exports & Imports 8 7 Figure. EXPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Sep 8 7 Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 7 Figure. IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Sep 7 8 Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

17 Figure. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP Real Government Total (.) FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING Federal (.) STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING State & Local (.8) Page 7 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

18 Contributions to GDP Growth Figure. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.7) Durable Goods (.) Nondurable Goods (.7) Services (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. - Page 8 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

19 Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (contribution to real GDP change) Total (-.) Nonresidential Investment (.) Structures (-.) Equipment & Software (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Change In Nonfarm Inventories (.) Page 9 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

20 8 - - Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES (contribution to real GDP change) Total (-.8) Exports of Goods & Services (-.) Imports of Goods & Services (-.) Federal Government Spending (.) State & Local Government Spending (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

21 7 Figure 7. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) Ratios Figure 8. REVENUES & EXPENDITURES 8 Federal Revenues (as a percent of nominal GDP) Federal Expenditures (as a percent of nominal GDP) 8 8 Q Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

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