Demographic Update. Clear Creek Independent School District. Fall Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
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1 Clear Creek Independent School District Demographic Update Fall 2016 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
2 Economic Conditions- Houston MSA Unemployment Rate AUGUST % Houston MSA 5.0% Texas USA 4.3% League City 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Annual Job Growth Rate AUGUST % Texas 1.7% USA 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Houston MSA 0.4% Source: Texas Workforce Commission 2
3 Cooling of the Oil Boom US Active Rig Count Hits Historic Low Rig counts are at their lowest levels in more than 40 years due to a substantial drop in the price of oil and the increased productivity of existing wells The Brent Crude price averaged $42 a barrel in 2016, compared to $48 in 2015 and $93 in 2014 In September 2016, Baker Hughes announced there were 522 active US rigs, down 287 from October 2015 In late September OPEC reached a deal to cap oil production, resulting in small gains in crude price per barrel OPEC s decision raised expert estimates for future prices, with prices expected to reach $52 a barrel in 4Q16 3
4 Houston New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q16 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Fort Bend ISD 3,237 3,268 3,906 15,712 2 Katy ISD 2,435 2,689 3,057 17,772 3 Houston ISD 1,711 2,444 2,506 5,505 4 Lamar CISD 2,422 2,399 4,791 14,349 5 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,361 2,284 3,821 9,058 6 Conroe ISD 1,981 2,018 4,020 12,333 7 Klein ISD 1,325 1,468 2,267 2,237 8 Humble ISD 1,038 1,062 1,833 8,564 9 Tomball ISD ,408 3, Alvin ISD 1, ,982 14, Clear Creek ISD ,477 3,592* 12 New Caney ISD , Aldine ISD , Spring ISD , Dickinson ISD , Goose Creek CISD , Pearland ISD Montgomery ISD , Magnolia ISD , Spring Branch ISD , *Added futures for Edgewater, Westwood, McAlister Tract, Magnolia Creek, Reserve at Clear Lake City, MarBella, Beacon Island and Verandah Townhomes due to developer information 4
5 New Housing Activity 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Clear Creek ISD Housing Activity Annual Starts Annual Closings Avg Inventory Starts Q Q Q Q Total Closings Q Q Q Q Total Clear Creek ISD is on pace to close roughly 900 homes in 2016, the most annual closings in more than 6 years The district had the most second quarter home starts in over six years 5
6 Annual Closing Distribution 2Q16 Annual Elementary Zone Closings ARMAND BAYOU 0 BAUERSCHLAG 104 BAY 12 BROOKWOOD 33 CLEAR LAKE CITY 0 FALCON PASS 0 FERGUSON 10 GILMORE 38 GOFORTH 140 GREENE 0 HALL 195 HYDE 0 LANDOLT 42 LEAGUE CITY 33 MCWHIRTER 18 MOSSMAN 173 NORTH POINTE 16 PARR 0 ROBINSON 0 ROSS 0 STEWART 0 WARD 0 WEBER 13 WEDGEWOOD 0 WHITCOMB 0 WHITE 0 Totals 827 6
7 Vacant Developed Lots 2Q16 Elementary Zone VDL ARMAND BAYOU 0 BAUERSCHLAG 2 BAY 18 BROOKWOOD 202 CLEAR LAKE CITY 0 FALCON PASS 0 FERGUSON 251 GILMORE 75 GOFORTH 219 GREENE 0 HALL 110 HYDE 0 LANDOLT 63 LEAGUE CITY 34 MCWHIRTER 116 MOSSMAN 215 NORTH POINTE 74 PARR 0 ROBINSON 0 ROSS 0 STEWART 22 WARD 0 WEBER 66 WEDGEWOOD 0 WHITCOMB 0 WHITE 10 Totals 1,477 VDL > 150 7
8 Future Lots 2Q16 Future Elementary Zone Lots ARMAND BAYOU 0 BAUERSCHLAG 227 BAY 0 BROOKWOOD 191 CLEAR LAKE CITY 0 FALCON PASS 0 FERGUSON 328 GILMORE 309 GOFORTH 322 GREENE 0 HALL 895 HYDE 0 LANDOLT 0 LEAGUE CITY 0 MCWHIRTER 0 MOSSMAN 667 NORTH POINTE 331 PARR 0 ROBINSON 0 ROSS 0 STEWART 90 WARD 0 WEBER 232 WEDGEWOOD 0 WHITCOMB 0 WHITE 0 Totals 3,592 Futures > 450 8
9 District Housing Overview Clear Creek ISD has more than 3,500 future lots to build on. The district has nearly 309 homes currently under construction 9
10 Active Subdivision Clear Lake City Active Homebuilding Reserve at Clear Lake City H-E-B 740 total homes North Pointe Elementary 322 total lots 283 futures 10 VDL 6 U/C 18 current students Brookwood Elementary 418 total lots 191 futures 171 VDL 32 U/C Building approx. 100 homes in 2017 Average home price $450K 10
11 Active Development Mar Bella Mar Bella 1,316 Total Lots 215 VDL 40 U/C 971 occupied $150K - $350K Current Yield = 0.93 Mossman Elementary GW underway on final 67 lots 11
12 Active Development Hidden Lakes Hidden Lakes Homes Building 866 Total Lots 176 VDL 35 U/C 306 occupied $250K $500K Megatel Homes and Gehan Homes Current Yield = 0.75 Goforth Elementary GW underway on 62 lots 12
13 Active Development Sedona Sedona Homes Building 905 Total Lots 227 Futures 2 VDL 7 U/C 657 occupied $200K - $300K Current Yield = 0.67 Bauerschlag Elementary GW underway on 227 lots Dickinson ISD 13
14 Active Development Westwood Sec. 4 with 94 lots delivered Westwood 1,332 Total Lots 932 Futures 110 VDL 17 U/C 264 occupied $250K - $400K Groundwork underway on Sec. 3 with 90 lots Anticipate building 75 homes a year Current Yield = 0.70 Hall Elementary GW underway Future School Site 14
15 Future Development Lakes of Quail Pointe Lakes of Quail Pointe 600 Futures Dirt will begin moving in the next six months First lots on the ground by start of 17/18 school year Homes starting at $275K Mossman Elementary 15
16 Future Developments McAlister Tract and Lloyd Tract McAlister Tract and Lloyd Tract McAlister Tract 50 acres Commercial 35 acres MF/TH 335 acres SF 55 acres for school sites Lloyd Tract 285 acres Commercial 80 acres MF/TH 730 acres SF 55 acres for school sites Both of these future tracts have initial PUD agreements and are listed as for sale by their real estate brokers PUD agreements were approved in 2006 No plans/plats submitted at this time 16
17 Multi-Family Update Apartment No. of Units Status Impact Elem Zone 1 Baybrook Eastfield 347 Under Construction Spring 2017 Whitcomb 2 Marina Bend at Clear Creek 750* First phase of 203 units under construction Mid 2017 Parr 3 Pinnacle Park 870 Planning stages 2018 Parr 4 NASA Road Apartments N/A Plat under review 2018 Armand Bayou 5 Valor Pointe 120 Denied tax credit by the State None Goforth 6 Beacon Island 850 Plat under review 2017 Ferguson Totals 2, *750 total units planned, 203 units currently under construction 17
18 Multi-Family Yields Clear Creek ISD has more than 26,600 existing multi-family units The district currently has 7,150 students residing in MF units CCISD has a current MF yield of 0.27 Hyde Elem zone has the highest MF yield at 0.93 with 140 units 18
19 Apartment and Single Family Analysis Difference Total Students 41,007 41, Out of District Unmatched Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 40,436 41, Multi-Family Students in MF 6,951 7, MF Units 25,854 26, % Students in MF 17.2% 17.4% 0.2% MF Yield Single Family Students in SF 33,178 33, SF Parcels 64,351 65, % Students in SF 82.0% 81.8% -0.2% SF Yield Manufactured Homes Students in MH MH Units % Students in MH 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% MH Yield Roughly 82% of Clear Creek ISD students reside in single family dwellings In the last year, CCISD has added 199 students in multi-family units, but the overall district MF yield remains unchanged 19
20 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (OCT) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2012/13 1,405 2,712 2,754 2,744 2,905 2,931 2,890 2,968 2,998 3,108 3,273 3,189 2,960 2,798 39, /14 1,460 2,728 2,820 2,848 2,790 2,948 2,985 2,978 3,065 3,051 3,345 3,106 3,118 2,756 39, % 2014/15 1,426 2,801 2,865 2,874 2,912 2,891 3,030 3,109 3,096 3,163 3,358 3,238 3,079 2,970 40, % 2015/16 1,393 2,793 2,883 2,920 2,999 3,001 3,000 3,174 3,207 3,133 3,442 3,221 3,173 2,887 41, % 2016/17 1,407 2,790 2,953 2,988 3,044 3,094 3,104 3,080 3,300 3,239 3,548 3,281 3,097 2,971 41, % 2017/18 1,407 2,801 2,964 3,045 3,106 3,139 3,162 3,211 3,202 3,367 3,561 3,392 3,238 2,914 42, % 2018/19 1,407 2,852 2,972 3,051 3,135 3,199 3,226 3,225 3,319 3,250 3,553 3,393 3,319 3,052 42, % 2019/20 1,407 2,911 3,012 3,041 3,124 3,181 3,253 3,322 3,328 3,386 3,491 3,393 3,340 3,149 43, % 2020/21 1,407 2,975 3,063 3,076 3,092 3,174 3,258 3,336 3,427 3,392 3,636 3,329 3,333 3,164 43, % 2021/22 1,407 3,011 3,136 3,124 3,152 3,154 3,239 3,313 3,447 3,478 3,638 3,469 3,273 3,164 44, % 2022/23 1,407 3,043 3,164 3,192 3,179 3,201 3,221 3,382 3,432 3,507 3,726 3,472 3,415 3,114 44, % 2023/24 1,407 3,048 3,196 3,237 3,255 3,232 3,276 3,306 3,501 3,500 3,742 3,554 3,403 3,254 44, % 2024/25 1,407 3,071 3,192 3,257 3,286 3,287 3,301 3,319 3,425 3,556 3,732 3,570 3,492 3,249 45, % 2025/26 1,407 3,100 3,219 3,254 3,328 3,326 3,357 3,417 3,438 3,482 3,795 3,560 3,507 3,333 45, % 2026/27 1,407 3,139 3,242 3,286 3,308 3,366 3,397 3,426 3,538 3,498 3,711 3,620 3,494 3,357 45, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Clear Creek ISD may reach 42,500 students by year growth = 2,108 students 2021/22 enrollment = 44, year growth = 3,893 students 2026/27 enrollment = 45,789 20
21 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Name 2016/ / / / / / / / / / /27 ARMAND BAYOU ELEMENTARY BAUERSCHLAG ELEMENTARY ,008 1,013 1,019 1,037 1,047 BAY ELEMENTARY BROOKWOOD ELEMENTARY CLEAR LAKE CITY ELEMENTARY FALCON PASS ELEMENTARY FERGUSON ELEMENTARY GILMORE ELEMENTARY GOFORTH ELEMENTARY ,020 1,055 1,048 1,060 1,069 1,073 1,074 GREENE ELEMENTARY HALL ELEMENTARY ,012 1,042 1,075 1,119 1,150 1,182 HYDE ELEMENTARY LANDOLT ELEMENTARY ,007 1,023 1,048 1,081 LEAGUE CITY ELEMENTARY MCWHIRTER ELEMENTARY/PDLS MOSSMAN ELEMENTARY 964 1,009 1,069 1,126 1,170 1,179 1,200 1,226 1,239 1,257 1,264 NORTH POINTE ELEMENTARY PARR ELEMENTARY ROBINSON ELEMENTARY ROSS ELEMENTARY STEWART ELEMENTARY WARD ELEMENTARY WEBER ELEMENTARY WEDGEWOOD ELEMENTARY WHITCOMB ELEMENTARY WHITE ELEMENTARY ELEMENTARY TOTALS 19,380 19,624 19,842 19,929 20,045 20,223 20,407 20,651 20,801 20,991 21,145 Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change 2.06% 1.26% 1.11% 0.44% 0.58% 0.89% 0.91% 1.20% 0.73% 0.91% 0.73% Elementary 5 year growth = 843 Elementary 10 year growth = 1,765 21
22 Ten Year Forecast By Intermediate Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Name 2016/ / / / / / / / / / /27 BROOKSIDE INTERMEDIATE CLEAR CREEK INTERMEDIATE CLEAR LAKE INTERMEDIATE ,008 1,013 CREEKSIDE INTERMEDIATE ,010 1,031 1,030 1,031 1,028 1,054 1,086 1,133 LEAGUE CITY INTERMEDIATE 1,109 1,087 1,097 1,104 1,113 1,129 1,150 1,195 1,180 1,173 1,181 SEABROOK INTERMEDIATE 1,021 1, ,029 1,030 1, SPACE CENTER INTERMEDIATE ,013 1,012 1,016 1,008 1,020 1,037 VICTORY LAKES INTERMEDIATE 1,077 1,106 1,129 1,163 1,149 1,162 1,176 1,187 1,156 1,138 1,162 WESTBROOK INTERMEDIATE 1,137 1,207 1,175 1,182 1,194 1,163 1,182 1,134 1,168 1,176 1,204 BAYSIDE INTERMEDIATE ,002 1,063 1,076 1,075 1,068 1,081 INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTALS 9,607 9,767 9,782 10,024 10,143 10,226 10,309 10,295 10,288 10,325 10,450 Intermed. School Absolute Change Intermed. School Percentage Change 1.11% 1.67% 0.15% 2.47% 1.19% 0.82% 0.81% -0.14% -0.07% 0.36% 1.21% Intermediate 5 year growth = 619 Intermediate 10 year growth =
23 Ten Year Forecast By High School Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Name 2016/ / / / / / / / / / /27 CLEAR BROOK HIGH SCHOOL 2,254 2,268 2,286 2,304 2,328 2,363 2,401 2,464 2,494 2,523 2,516 CLEAR CREEK HIGH SCHOOL 2,336 2,396 2,439 2,463 2,469 2,459 2,498 2,553 2,571 2,600 2,594 CLEAR LAKE HIGH SCHOOL 2,385 2,385 2,420 2,424 2,451 2,471 2,498 2,522 2,536 2,558 2,556 CLEAR SPRINGS HIGH SCHOOL 2,630 2,703 2,759 2,811 2,829 2,865 2,900 2,934 2,945 2,980 2,978 CLEAR FALLS HIGH SCHOOL 2,603 2,657 2,708 2,670 2,683 2,682 2,727 2,777 2,794 2,831 2,835 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 12,208 12,409 12,612 12,672 12,760 12,840 13,024 13,250 13,340 13,492 13,479 High School Absolute Change High School Percentage Change 1.66% 1.65% 1.64% 0.48% 0.69% 0.63% 1.43% 1.74% 0.68% 1.14% -0.10% CLEAR HORIZONS EARLY COLLEGE HS CLEAR VIEW EDUCATION CENTER CLEAR PATH ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE TOTALS DISTRICT TOTALS 41,896 42,508 42,952 43,337 43,661 44,004 44,454 44,911 45,144 45,522 45,789 District Percent Change 1.63% 1.46% 1.04% 0.90% 0.75% 0.78% 1.02% 1.03% 0.52% 0.84% 0.58% District Absolute Change High School 5 year growth = 632 High School 10 year growth = 1,271 23
24 Summary Year-over-year job growth has slowed in the Houston MSA due to losses in the oil and information sectors. Oil prices are expected to rebound by 4Q16. Clear Creek ISD is on pace to close nearly 900 new homes in Hall and Mossman Elementary zones are the most active areas for new housing growth, with 45% of district new home starts. Clear Creek ISD may reach 42,500 students by Five-year enrollment growth of 2,108 with fall 2021 enrollment = 44,004. Ten-Year enrollment growth of 3,893 with fall 2026 enrollment = 45,
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