The development of higher education in Africa. A global comparison Anne Goujon Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital

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1 The development of higher education in. A global comparison Anne Goujon Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital Higher Education, Mobility and Migration in and out of, Vienna, June, 2014

2 Outline Introduction Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & Present higher education in Future higher education Conclusions

3 Introduction Quantitative analysis ( qualitative) and descriptive Comparative analysis of all n countries with a regional perspective Contextual: Compare to other developing societies Link between education and demography

4 Background and source of data Context: Global population projections by levels of educational attainment See Lutz, W., Butz, W., and S. KC forthcoming. World population and human capital in the 21st century. Oxford University Press. Scope: 6 education categories, 171 countries Methodology: Expert-based modeling Soon available online at:

5 Levels of educational attainment in in Mean years of schooling (15+), and sub-regions, , ,8 5,1 5,1 5,8 6, Eastern Western Middle Northern Southern

6 East Middle North South Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & present higher education Future Higher education Mean years of schooling (15+), n countries, 2010 West Nigeria Ghana Cape Verde Gambia Cote d'ivoire Sierra Leone Guinea-Bissau Benin Senegal Guinea Burkina Faso Liberia Mali Niger South Namibia Swaziland Lesotho Algeria Tunisia Egypt Morocco Sudan Equatorial Guinea Gabon Congo DR Congo Cameroon Sao Tome & Principe Central n Republic Chad Zimbabwe Reunion Kenya Zambia Mauritius Tanzania Uganda Malawi Comoros Rwanda Madagascar Somalia Burundi Ethiopia Mozambique

7

8 Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western

9 Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western

10 Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western

11 Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western

12 Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary + Upper secondary 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western

13 Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary + Upper secondary + Post-secondary 5% 4% 3% 2% 9% 6% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western

14 and other continents, 2010, proportion of 15+ population by education No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North America Oceania Europe Latin America Asia

15 and other continents, 2010, proportion of 15+ population by education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary + Upper secondary + Post-secondary 33% 29% 20% 12% 10% North America Oceania Europe Latin America Asia Year by when other continents achieved 2010 s share of population in higher education %

16 map

17 The gender gap in population, , and sub-regions 9 Ratio of male to female population with higher education Southern Northern Western Eastern Middle

18 Change across cohorts, 1970 to 2010, and sub-regions 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Proportion with higher education in the age group from 1970 to Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western

19 The gender gap in the cohort with higher education, 1985 to 2010, and sub-regions 7 Ratio of male to female population with higher education Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western

20 Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & present higher education Future Higher education The future of higher education according to global trend scenario, and sub-regions 40% Proportion with higher education, % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western 0%

21 The future of higher education according to global trend scenario, and sub-regions In 000s Population with higher education, Western Southern Northern Middle Eastern

22 Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & present higher education Future Higher education Increase in absolute population with higher education: The example of a few countries Population with post-secondary education in 4 countries, (global trend scenario) Ethiopia Mali Mozambique Nigeria X 4 X 8 X 9 X 6

23 Conclusions Higher education: Still a small bubble in most n countries; The proportion with higher education is increasing by years and cohorts; The gender gap is closing but still exists; Strong impact of the increase in population & education on the higher education sector.

24 Anne Goujon

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