Growing Smarter: Education Quality and Economic Growth in East Asia and the Pacific

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1 Growing Smarter: Education Quality and Economic Growth in East Asia and the Pacific World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Regional Flagship Report Fall 2017 Michael Crawford, Amer Hasan, Raja Kattan, Sachiko Kataoka, Dilaka Lathapipat, Andrew Ragatz, Anny Wong, Neda Bostani, Andrew Coflan, Melissa Merchant, Yilin Pan, Elisabeth Sedmik

2 A flagship report on education quality and growth in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) Outline of today s talk EAP economies have (by far) the world s best record of economic growth over the past four decades. Investments in education have been unmatched in quantity and quality Sneak preview Education policies and practices crowd in learning in successful countries Lessons from the policies and practices that lead to high performance are relevant globally and regionally Benefits continue to accrue to individuals and countries 2

3 The EAP region: A half-century of stellar growth 8.4% 7.8% 7.2% 7.7% 8.0% 8.9% 7.2% 7.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0% 5.1% 6.1% 5.6% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.6% 5.7% 5.4% 3.9% 3.0% 3.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 3.5% World EAP EAP (DEV) EAP (DEV w/o China) 3

4 Investments in human capital have paid dividends 100% 2015 GDP of EAP using different growth rates 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% EAP GDP at EAP growth with China ( ) EAP GDP at EAP growth without China ( ) EAP GDP at world growth ( ) 20% 10% 0% 4

5 Growing demand for education shows no sign of letting up Share of Employment in Agriculture Average Tertiary Enrollment Rates and Returns to Education 60 40% % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Group C Average Enrollment Group C Average Returns to Tertiary Education 5% EAP EAP-DEV World 0%

6 Gaps in attainment have been closed World EAP 6

7 While challenges remain in some countries Group A Group B Group C Group D 7

8 PISA 2015 Score in Science EAP countries are the top scorers on PISA Singapore Japan Estonia Finland Vietnam Canada Korea Hong Kong SAR, China China (B-S-J-G) United Kingdom New Zealand Australia Switzerland Poland Portugal BelgiumDenmark FranceAustria Norway Spain Sweden United States Russian FederationCzech Republic Hungary Italy Croatia Lithuania Iceland Israel Kazakhstan Bulgaria Chile Greece Uruguay Malaysia MoldovaAlbania Romania United Arab Emirates Argentina Cyprus Thailand Turkey Trinidad and Tobago Colombia Georgia Mexico Macao SAR, China Luxembourg Qatar 400 Indonesia Brazil Peru Tunisia Kosovo Algeria GDP per capita in 2015 or latest, PPP (constant 2011 International $), World Bank ICP 8

9 TIMSS 2015 Scores in Science and on TIMSS EASTERN EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA Korea Japan Korea Hong Kong Hong Kong EAST ASIA & PACIFIC Singapore Singapore 500 WESTERN EUROPE & US/CANADA Malaysia 450 Thailand MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA 400 Indonesia 4th Grade 8th Grade ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 GDP per capita in 2015 or latest, PPP (constant 2011 International $), World Bank ICP 9

10 Student learning is years ahead GDP per capita in 2015 or latest, PPP (constant 2011 International $) Science mean score in PISA 2015 Prediction of Science mean score based on the regression The difference between true score and predicted score The difference between true score and predicted score in years of schooling Japan Korea Singapore B-S-J-G (China) Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Malaysia

11 What explains success? 11

12 Leadership Support for Teachers Effective Administration Readiness to Learn Curriculum Effective Teaching & Learning Attention to Equity Student Assessments Sound Finance 12

13 National vision for human capital-driven growth Unshakeable commitment to develop skills for prosperity Initial focus on basic literacy and numeracy is the foundation of progressive universalism Curricula relevant to economic challenges: emphasis on TVET as manufacturing grew Aspirations to join the advanced countries at the technological frontier

14 Sound administrative systems set conditions for learning Vietnam s Fundamental School Quality Audits ensured basic infrastructure for learning Korea and Vietnam report no problems particular problems with teacher absenteeism. Japan: budgetary autonomy conceded to highperforming schools Other EAP countries still struggle with chronic absenteeism among teachers

15 Spending matters beyond a point more is not necessarily better 550 Average PISA 2015 Reading Score vs. Public Expenditure per Student (constant 2013 PPP$) Vietnam Chile Estonia Czech Republic Spain Latvia Lithuania Hungary New Zealand Poland Israel Slovak Republic Romania Bulgaria Colombia Costa Rica Mexico Moldova Jordan Thailand Georgia Albania Brazil Indonesia Peru Dominican Republ 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Public expenditure per student (constant 2013 PPP$)

16 and spend to promote equity Policies and practices to promote equity and minimize gaps in the system in successful economies in the region include: Equitable budget allocation across the system. Balanced quality of school by rotating teachers and principals. Engaging high performing teachers to support other schools and teachers. Providing additional allocation of assistant teachers for low performing schools. This is reflected in general equity in international assessments like PISA.

17 Group B: poorer students learn more than their OECD counterparts OECD Group A OECD Group A OECD Group A Group B Group C Group B Group C Group B Group C 18

18 and their lowest scorers learn as much as Group C s average students Source: Author s calculations, OECD PISA 2015 Data 19

19 Vietnam shows high scores and equity go together B-S-J-G (China) Indonesia B-S-J-G (China) Indonesia B-S-J-G (China) Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam 20

20 Investments in ECD began earlier in highperforming countries 1900s 1950s 1970s 1990s 2000s Japan & Korea First kindergartens start in early 1900s Vietnam ECEC history begins in 1954 China Unified policy issued by Ministries of Interior, Education and Public Health on KG in rural areas Philippines Barangay Day Care Law Laos Preschool legislation Cambodia 5% of 3-5 year olds covered by preschools Malaysia 42% of 4-6 year olds covered Indonesia ECE included in Strategic Plan 21

21 Enrollment gaps are narrowing, spending gaps are not 8,000 Public spending on pre-primary education (for children aged 3 and older), ,000 6,670 6,000 6,047 5,000 5,103 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,506 1,696 1, Indonesia Guangxi* Shanghai* Brazil Japan Korea OECD Average 22

22 Fraction passing Stage Differences in readiness to learn start early and persist Language and Cognitive Development Domain Test of executive function Dimensional Change Card Sort Age of child (months) Poor Rich Age of child (months) Poor Rich Rural children aged months, Indonesia,

23 ..with lasting repercussions for learning PISA 2015 Reading 45 Difference between those with none or less than one year of ECE and those with more than one year points is equivalent to one year of learning 0 Group A Group B Group C 24

24 EAP s high-performing countries have cohesive teacher support systems Comprehensive support that enables teachers to develop and be effective Other areas of the education system tend to be aligned in ways that make the teacher s job easier

25 Norway Romania Cyprus Netherlands Malaysia Singapore Italy Sweden Japan Czech Republic Israel Serbia Bulgaria Australia France Poland Spain Korea Denmark Iceland Flanders (Belgium) Latvia Average Croatia England (United Kingdom) Slovak Republic Finland Portugal Estonia Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates) Mexico Brazil Alberta (Canada) Chile United States Teachers are given sufficient time for preparation Average hours spent teaching and working per week Hours spent on teaching Total working hours

26 Total Number of Topics Korea Japan Hong Kong Greece Romania Czech Republic Germany Israel Singapore South Africa Cyprus Bulgaria Sweden Netherlands Slovak Republic Denmark France Hungary Iceland Scotland Austria Canada Colombia Ireland Russian Federation Australia Portugal Spain Norway Slovenia Switzerland Latvia New Zealand USA Concentrate on fewer topics Number of Science Topics on TIMSS Science 2011 in the Curriculum for Each Country Content Standards Textbook Coverage Topics tested in Standards Topics Tested in Textbook Source: Schmidt, William H., et al. Why Schools Matter: A Cross-National Comparison of Curriculum and Learning.

27 Japan Hong Kong, SAR Thailand Singapore Chinese Taipei Georgia Sweden Italy Australia Canada (Quebec) Morocco Russian Federation Norway Korea, Republic of New Zealand Iran, Islamic Republic of Norway Malaysia England Ireland Canada Hungary Malta Turkey Table Average Canada (Ontario) United States Botswana Lithuania Kazakhstan Jordan Saudi Arabia Egypt South Africa Kuwait United Arab Emirates (Abu Israel United Arab Emirates (Dubai) Qatar Slovenia United Arab Emirates Lebanon Oman Chile Argentina, Buenos Aires Bahrain..and think they have room to improve as professionals In teaching mathematics to this class, how would you characterize your confidence in developing students higher-order thinking skills? Low Medium High Very high 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: 2015 TIMSS

28 More countries are benchmarking PISA Participating Countries/Economies ( ) Classification Group Japan Korea Singapore Hong Kong, SAR (China) Macao, SAR (China) Shanghai (China) B-S-J-G (China) Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Malaysia HI1 A HI1 A HI1 A HI1 / HI1 / DEV / DEV B DEV B DEV C DEV C DEV C * 30

29 Successful countries assess learning High performing systems in the region have integrated systems in which assessments of student learning link to teachers, students, and curriculum (virtuous circles). Successful EAP education systems measure learning results at both aggregate and individual levels. They have systemic ways of taking actions based on assessment (to support teaching and learning, inform policy and foster accountability).

30 And integrate their assessment systems Large Scale and System Level Assessment International large scale assessments used systematically by high performing countries in the region (groups A & B) to benchmark and compel education quality reforms Early Grade Reading and Mathematics Assessments (EGRA/EGMA) also used to gauge system performance and inform policy change (particularly in Groups C & D) Examinations National Examinations have played a prominent role in EAP s high performing education systems Examinations have been utilized to allocate learning opportunities, gauge teacher effectiveness and set school rankings EAP s education systems are now looking at how to go beyond these examinations as curricula evolve Classroom Assessment In the classroom, assessed performance of students and continuous use of assessment can be used to improve instruction and learning Teacher developed tests are used in schools across the region to guide student learning and adapt teaching to students needs (PISA 2015) Classroom assessment guidelines should be integrated with curricula and teacher development

31 EGRA/EGMA a starting point for measurement Vanuatu (2010) Letter knowledge zero scores (Grades 2 and 3) Philippines - Hiligaynon (2015) Cambodia (2012) Timor-Leste (2011) Philippines - Ilokano (2015) Laos (2012) Tonga (2009) Philippines - Cebuano (2015) Indonesia (2014) Myanmar (2014) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 34

32

33 Thank you! Conference Twitter feed: #BasicED Look for the report in Fall 2017 Contact: 36

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