Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow

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1 Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow School Enrollment Projections Series February 2010 Contact: Sara Lazenby, (608)

2 Page Intentionally Left Blank School Enrollment Projection Series: ii

3 Table of Contents Introduction... 1 District Enrollment History, Kindergarten Enrollment Trends... 7 Birth Trends and Projections... 9 Population Estimates and Projections Residential Development Methods Grade Progression Ratios School Enrollment Projections, K Enrollment Projections Baseline Projection Year Trend Projection Year Trend Projection Kindergarten Trend Projection Comparison of Projection Models Conclusions School Enrollment Projection Series: iii

4 Introduction This report offers a summary of the Enrollment Projection Analysis completed for the Johnson Creek School District by the Applied Population Laboratory, University of Wisconsin Madison. Projections ( ) are provided for the district as a whole, and individually for each grade and grade grouping. The projection process uses a combination of historical enrollment data, birth trends and projections, housing starts data, and population trends and projections to create reasonable assumptions about future growth scenarios and the likely impact on the school district. District Enrollment History, Figures 1-A, 1-B, and 1-C and Tables 1 and 2 display data on the last ten years of enrollment history in the. K-12 district enrollment has grown overall since 2000, from 596 students in 2000/01 to 627 students in 2009/10. This is a growth of 31 students, or a 5.2% increase in the number of K-12 students enrolled. In addition, in the 2008/09 school year the district began a 4K program, which has added an additional 50 students to the district each of the past two years. From the lowest K-12 enrollment in the last decade (2001/02), the district has gained 73 students, or increased enrollment by 13.2%. School Enrollment Projection Series: 1

5 Students Figure 1-A 700 Student Enrollment / / / / / / / / / /10 School Enrollment Projection Series: 2

6 TABLE 1 Student Enrollment SCHOOL YEAR K K K K K School Enrollment Projection Series: 3

7 TABLE 2 Student Enrollment Changes ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE GRADE '00 to '09 '00 to '04 '05 to '09 '00 to '09 '00 to '04 '05 to '09 '00 to '09 '00 to '04 '05 to '09 K K K K School Enrollment Projection Series: 4

8 Students Figure 1-B shows enrollment history broken down by grade groupings (K-6, 7-8, and 9-12). Enrollment in grades K-6 has increased by 7.4% within the past five years, while 9-12 enrollment has increased by 13.2%. Enrollment in grades 7-8 has decreased by 17.8% in the past five years, which is a result of small cohorts entering the junior high years. Figure 1-B Student Enrollment by Grade Grouping / / / / / / / / / /10 K School Enrollment Projection Series: 5

9 Grade Figure 1-C shows the age structure in Fall 2009 of the student population with the number of kindergarteners at the bottom and the number of 12 th graders at top. The largest cohorts are in Elementary school, with Kindergarten and 1 st grade enrolling 55 and 56 students, respectively. The smallest cohort is currently in 7 th grade, with 34 students. Figure 1-C Age Structure, Fall K Number of Students Enrolled School Enrollment Projection Series: 6

10 Students Kindergarten Enrollment Trends Examining trends in kindergarten enrollment is particularly informative for gaining perspective on future district enrollment, as today s kindergarteners will gradually make up tomorrow s students at the higher grade levels as they age and move through the school system. When kindergarten enrollment is increasing, elementary and middle school enrollment might be expected to increase in the near future, while high school enrollment may increase farther in the future. Figure 2-A shows kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten enrollment in red and blue. The Long Term Trend line (shown in red) averages kindergarten enrollment changes between 2000 and The Recent Trend line emphasizes kindergarten enrollment changes over the last five years. In, kindergarten enrollment has been on the rise for several years, and particularly within the last five years. Figure 2-A 80 Kindergarten Enrollment Trends Projected Actual Long Term Trend Recent Trend School Enrollment Projection Series: 7

11 Students In addition to examining kindergarten enrollment on its own, comparing kindergarten enrollment to outgoing 12 th graders offers a snapshot of how the age structure of district enrollment is shifting either from older to younger, or younger to older. Districts tend to experience overall growth when kindergarten enrollment outpaces outgoing students, and they tend to experience decline when kindergarteners do not fully replace the number of graduates. In, incoming kindergarten cohorts have exceeded the previous year s 12 th grade enrollment for each of the last five years. Figure 2-B 70 Kindergarten Replacement / / / / / / / / / /10 Previous Year's 12th Grade Enrollment Kindergarten Enrollment School Enrollment Projection Series: 8

12 Birth Trends and Projections We use historical and projected birth data to forecast the number of Kindergarten students who will enroll in the in the future years. Figure 3 shows (in black) the number of births to mothers living in municipalities that fall within school district boundaries, by year, from , as collected from the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services. For the we include the municipalities of the Village of Johnson Creek, and the Towns of Farmington and Watertown. We extrapolate these birth trends into the future to correspond with our Baseline and Recent Trend projection models, using the B:K grade progression ratios to transform births into future Kindergarteners. The red line in Figure 3 represents birth trends over the longer term (between 1989 and 2008). The blue line examines birth patterns for the last seven years corresponds to the Recent Trend projection models shown later in this report. Births have increased overall in the past 20 years, but have shown large increases over the past seven years Figure 3 Area Births Projected Long Term Trend Recent Trend Actual School Enrollment Projection Series: 9

13 Population Estimates and Projections This section examines population trends of the recent past and projected population change into the future for municipalities that fall within the area. Changes in the total population of the district area, particularly when examined by age, provide clues into how the school age population may be changing. Table 3 and Figure 4-A provide Wisconsin Department of Administration (DOA) estimates for district area municipalities from 1990 to These municipal estimates can be compared with estimates for Jefferson County and the State of Wisconsin. The area grew quickly from Since that point in time, growth has slowed somewhat, with a growth of.5% from 2008 to TABLE 3 Population Estimates of Municipalities: POPULATION Census Census est. est. est. est. est. Municipality V. Johnson Creek 1,259 1,581 1,901 2,012 2,055 2,122 2,138 T. Farmington 1,404 1,498 1,524 1,523 1,525 1,533 1,532 T. Watertown 1,840 1,876 1,919 1,930 1,952 1,962 1,973 District Area 4,503 4,955 5,344 5,465 5,532 5,617 5,643 Jefferson County 67,783 75,767 79,188 80,005 80,411 81,022 81,310 State of Wisconsin 4,891,769 5,101,581 5,363,715 5,617,744 5,648,124 5,675,000 5,688,000 PERCENT CHANGE AVG to 2000 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to ANNUAL Municipality V. Johnson Creek 25.6% 20.2% 5.8% 2.1% 3.3% 0.8% 3.9% T. Farmington 6.7% 1.7% -0.1% 0.1% 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% T. Watertown 2.0% 2.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% District Area 10.0% 7.9% 2.3% 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 1.5% Jefferson County 11.8% 4.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% State of Wisconsin 4.3% 5.1% 4.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% Source: Official Population Estimates ( ). Demographic Services Center, WIDOA School Enrollment Projection Series: 10

14 Population Figure 4-A Population Estimates for Area Municipalities 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, V. Johnson Creek T. Farmington T. Watertown District Area School Enrollment Projection Series: 11

15 Population projections to 2020 for area municipalities are provided in Table 4. These projections suggest that area population will continue to increase in the coming years, although at rates slower than the growth seen from Overall, the district area is expected to gain about 953 residents between 2005 and TABLE 4 Population Projections of Municipalities: POPULATION Census Estimate Census Estimate Projections CHANGE Municipality to 2020 V. Johnson Creek 1,259 1,476 1,581 1,901 2,157 2,413 2,673 1,092 T. Farmington 1,404 1,422 1,498 1,524 1,558 1,585 1, T. Watertown 1,840 1,880 1,876 1,919 1,943 1,974 2, District Area 4,503 4,778 4,955 5,344 5,658 5,972 6,297 1,342 Jefferson County 67,783 70,886 75,767 79,188 82,729 86,517 90,417 14,650 State of Wisconsin 4,891,769 5,101,581 5,363,715 5,617,744 5,772,370 5,988,420 6,202, ,095 PERCENT CHANGE Observed & Estimated Projected Municipality V. Johnson Creek 17.2% 7.1% 20.2% 13.5% 11.9% 10.8% 69.1% T. Farmington 1.3% 5.3% 1.7% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 7.8% T. Watertown 2.2% -0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 7.1% District Area 6.1% 3.7% 7.9% 5.9% 5.5% 5.4% 27.1% Jefferson County 4.6% 6.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 19.3% State of Wisconsin 4.3% 5.1% 4.7% 2.8% 3.7% 3.6% 15.6% ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE Observed & Estimated Projected Municipality V. Johnson Creek 3.4% 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 3.5% T. Farmington 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% T. Watertown 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% District Area 1.2% 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% Jefferson County 0.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% State of Wisconsin 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% Source: Population Projections for Wisconsin Municipalities: (2008). Demographic Services Center, WIDOA School Enrollment Projection Series: 12

16 Table 5 shows population projections by age for Jefferson County. In the county as a whole, the number of children aged 5-9, 10-15, and is expected to increase by Because these projections are for the entirety of Jefferson County, they may or may not resemble the future age structure of the population within the area. TABLE 5 Population Projections by Age: Jefferson County Age Group ,179 5,548 5,852 5,969 5,960 6, ,278 5,511 5,888 6,188 6,290 6, ,371 5,663 5,899 6,282 6,582 6, ,927 5,862 6,152 6,382 6,772 7, ,293 5,132 5,077 5,334 5,538 5, ,058 5,617 5,453 5,400 5,673 5, ,479 6,355 5,883 5,712 5,644 5, ,241 5,821 6,706 6,190 6,010 5, ,830 5,403 6,002 6,891 6,353 6, ,547 5,895 5,471 6,080 6,968 6, ,124 6,478 5,843 5,432 6,044 6, ,413 5,963 6,319 5,711 5,318 5, ,416 5,146 5,684 6,039 5,468 5, ,244 4,087 4,778 5,295 5,642 5, ,524 2,895 3,665 4,302 4,788 5, ,846 2,153 2,488 3,172 3,745 4, ,434 1,367 1,609 1,880 2,419 2, ,098 1,302 1, & Over Totals 82,729 86,517 90,417 94,108 97, ,334 Source: Population Projections for Wisconsin Counties: (2008). Demographic Services Center, WIDOA School Enrollment Projection Series: 13

17 Figure 4-B shows population estimates for 2008 by age for Jefferson County from the U.S. Census Bureau and population projections for 2015 produced by the Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center. By 2015 the number of school aged children in Jefferson County is expected to increase, with the exception of the number of high school aged children (15-19) which is expected to decrease slightly. Figure 4-B Age Structure Jefferson County 85plus 80 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Males Females 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Number of People 2015 Projections 2008 Estimate School Enrollment Projection Series: 14

18 Residential Development Examining trends in recent housing development can help to explain how in-migration into the area might be affecting school enrollment. If the number of housing starts in the district area is expected to be reasonably consistent for the next several years, then we assume that in-migration of school-age children will also remain relatively consistent. If the number of housing starts is expected to increase significantly above and beyond recent levels, in-migration may play an increasing role in school district enrollment. However, it is important to recognize that the number of housing starts in any given year is dependent upon a large number of confounding variables (decisions of local, county, and state policy makers, residential developers, interest rates, demand for housing, etc.), making future growth patterns difficult to predict. Table 6 shows the number of housing starts in the over the past ten years. Area housing starts have fluctuated from a high of 113 units in 2004 (including 143 single family homes), to a low of 26 new housing starts in TABLE 6 School District Area Housing Starts District Area TOTAL Single Family Two Family Multi-family V. Johnson Creek TOTAL Single Family Two Family Multi-family T. Farmington TOTAL Single Family Two Family Multi-family T. Watertown TOTAL Single Family Two Family Multi-family School Enrollment Projection Series: 15

19 Figure 5-A shows the number of residential building permits issued by municipality for communities that fall within the area. Figure 5-B shows housing starts in the area by type of housing unit single family home, duplex, multi-family housing unit, or mobile home. The majority of housing development over the last several years has occurred in the Village of Johnson creek. There has also been a small amount of development in towns of Farmington and Watertown. Most of the development in the area has consisted of single-family homes; however the Village of Johnson Creek has seen some multi-family residential development over the past several years. Households in two-family and multi-family complexes, on average, contain fewer school-aged children than single family homes. The entire district area has experienced a decline in development over the past four years. This is consistent with housing and economic trends in Jefferson County, Wisconsin, and the United States as a whole. Despite these challenges, the still saw 26 new housing starts in 2008, indicating that development is still occurring within the district area. This is the same amount of single-family home development that occurred in 2001, and more single-family housing development than occurred in Figure 5-A Area Housing Starts by Municipality V. Johnson Creek T. Farmington T. Watertown School Enrollment Projection Series: 16

20 120 Figure 5-B Area Housing Starts by Type Single Family Two Family Multi-family Total It is also important to consider that turnover in ownership of existing housing stock also contributes to changes in enrollment. A district can maintain or even increase enrollment depending upon the cycle of resident homeowners, regardless of housing starts. For instance, a younger community will have a higher child-per-household ratio, whereas an older community will have a lower child-perhousehold ration. However, within a few years a turnover in ownership in an older community may result in an increase in the child-per-household number. As younger families move into the area, the school district will tend to see new students enrolling into the district s schools. Absent new housing development or housing turnover, families age in place and the number of school-aged children eventually declines. Turnover in ownership does not happen overnight, however, and slow turnover may happen for several years at varying rates. School Enrollment Projection Series: 17

21 Methods In order to generate school enrollment projections, we rely on a commonly used demographic technique called the cohort survival method. This method advances current students through the school system over time and applies rates of transfer (or survival ) as the students who are now in school age from year to year and grade to grade. It is through these rates of transfer that we make assumptions about how migration into and out of the district and transfers to and from different schools or home schooling will impact future enrollment. In order to project incoming kindergarten students, we gather data on births from the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services and assume that a certain percentage of the children born to mothers residing in the school district area will enroll as kindergarteners five to six years later. Finally, we customize projections to best fit an individual district s needs by adjusting the basic model based on information about birth trends, recent housing development, economic changes, and/or population projections. Grade Progression Ratios Grade progression ratios are used to measure district enrollment changes, year to year and grade to grade that have occurred within the school district in the recent past. By examining these, we can better understand recent changes in enrollment, and we use these ratios as the rates of transfer mentioned above to inform projections of future students. Table 7 shows the grade progression ratios for the. The ratios measure the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public schools, or via open enrollment. The ratios are calculated for several pairs of years and then averages of these based on different time frames are calculated for each grade. School Enrollment Projection Series: 18

22 TABLE 7 Grade Progression Ratios YEAR CHANGES B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11: / / / / / / / / / Baseline Year Trend Year "Trend" *Shaded progression ratios are excluded from the Baseline Average The grade progression ratios can be interpreted in the following manner. The Baseline ratio for K:1 is.999. This means that in the, the first grade is on average.1% smaller each year than the kindergarten class was the previous year (the result of transfers to other schools and out-migration from the district), though the ratio is incredibly close to one, and very little loss of students is occurring. The B:K (birth to kindergarten) Baseline ratio of indicates that on average, approximately 76.5% of the births in the Village of Johnson Creek and Towns of Farmington and Watertown from five years previous enroll in kindergarten in. Outliers (ratios outside of one standard deviation of the mean) are not included in the calculation of the Baseline average ratios. In order to examine future enrollment under different growth assumptions, we generate three sets of grade progression ratios that correspond to the different projection models shown later in this report. In addition to the Baseline ratios (averages 10 years of data), we examine rates of transfer in the last 5 years and the last 2 years, effectively weighing enrollment change patterns from different time periods more heavily than the Baseline. Any significant deviations from the rates of in- and outmigration in the district area will have a corresponding effect on enrollment. These additional models allow us to examine alternative outcomes compared to the overall trends of the Baseline model. Figure 6 shows the differences between these three sets of grade progression ratios. School Enrollment Projection Series: 19

23 Grade Progression Ratio Figure Grade Progression Ratios, by Model B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12 Baseline Trend 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend Looking at the Last 2 Year Trend ratios, the K:1 ratio (1.014) shows that in the last two years as students advanced from Kindergarten to first grade, the school district gained an average of 1.4% of students each year. Grade progression ratios in the last two years have been particularly high for K:1, 1:2, :10, and 11:12, suggesting more in-migration of students at these grade levels. School Enrollment Projection Series: 20

24 School Enrollment Projections, When considering all of the projections provided in this report for decision-making, it is important to recognize that population projections of all types, including school enrollment projections, are more accurate in the immediate future than they are farther into the future. This is especially true for grades K-5, because the students who will enter kindergarten after 2014 have not yet been born. Overall, our projections are more reliable over the next five years (up to the 2014/15 school year) than they are in the latter half of the next decade. 4K Enrollment Projections In the 2008/09 school year the started a 4K program within the district. Given that there are now only two years of data for this program, the Applied Population Laboratory is unable to project 4K enrollment for most models due to a lack of data. Projections are included, however, for the 2 Year Trend model, which incorporates data from the last two years of enrollment. On average, in the past two years, 75.4% of children born within the district four years previous enroll in 4K in the. Kindergarten enrollment this year was 10% larger than 4K enrollment in the 2008/09 school year. While projections are provided for one model, it is important to note that trends and enrollment in 4K may not have stabilized, and the percentage of students enrolling in 4K in the past two years is not necessarily indicative of the number of 4K students that will enroll in the next decade. Interest and enrollment in 4K should be monitored closely to determine the future trajectory of 4K enrollment. School Enrollment Projection Series: 21

25 Baseline Projection The Baseline model (Table 8) projects enrollments using the assumption that average trends year to year, grade to grade, will continue into the future. This model assumes that long term (past ten years) trends in enrollment, migration, and births will be representative of future trends in the district. This model projects that K-12 enrollment will increase over the next decade, projecting that K-12 enrollment will increase by 162 students (a 25.8% increase) by 2019/20. Within the next five years enrollment is projected to increase by 72 students (an 11.5% increase). TABLE 8 Baseline Projection Model SCHOOL YEAR K K K K School Enrollment Projection Series: 22

26 5 Year Trend Projection The 5 Year Trend model (Table 9) uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and recent trends in the number of births in the school district area to project what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were representative of future trends. With recent migration rates and birth trends weighted more heavily, K-12 enrollment in the is projected to increase at a higher rate than the Baseline model over the next decade, projecting an increase of 240 students (38.3%). Within the next five years enrollment is projected to increase by 76 students (12.1%). TABLE 9 5 Year Trend Projection Model SCHOOL YEAR GRADE K K K K School Enrollment Projection Series: 23

27 2 Year Trend Projection The 2 Year Trend model (Table 10) uses the progression ratios from the last two years to project what future enrollments would look like if even more recent patterns were representative of future trends. For the Last 2 Year Trend, K-12 enrollment is projected to increase from 627 students in 2009/10 to 924 students in 2019/20. This is an increase of 297 students (47.4%) over the next decade. Within the next five years enrollment is projected to increase by 105 students, or 16.7%. 4K enrollment is projected to increase from 50 students in 2009/10 to 62 students by 2014/15 and 73 students by 2019/20. This model projects the highest amount of enrollment increase for two reasons. First, the relatively high grade progression ratios (rates of migration and transfers into the district) that the district has experienced in the last two years, and the higher projected births for the second half of the decade (the Recent Trend birth projections). This model should be interpreted with some caution if future migration into the school district continues at the relatively high rate experienced in the last two to three years, and births increase at the same rate as they have in the past few years, then this model should be appropriate. Still, it is important to note that ratios can be variable year to year and very short term trends (2 years) do not often continue into the future, unless there has been a substantive change in the district that has impacted migration levels and this change is expected to continue to affect migration into the future. Births should also be closely monitored, as recessions tend to decrease births in the short term, though this is not necessarily true for every school district. TABLE 10 2 Year "Trend" Projection Model SCHOOL YEAR GRADE K K K K K School Enrollment Projection Series: 24

28 Kindergarten Trend Projection For this method we perform a trend analysis to project the number of future kindergarten students, rather than relying upon the traditional birth to kindergarten (B:K) progression ratio. Then, the 5 Year Trend progression ratios are used for projecting the other grades (1-12) in the district. In other words, this model assumes that the number of new kindergarteners each year over the next decade will continue to follow a trend similar to the trend in kindergarten enrollment change over the last seven years, regardless of the number of observed births in the school district area. According to this hybrid projection method (Table 11), K-12 enrollment would increase only slightly over the next decade. A good way to think about the projections provided by this model is that if the number of new kindergarteners continues to increase (as they have over the last several years) and if patterns of transfers in and out of the district continue as they have over the past five years, then the Kindergarten Regression model should provide a good prediction of future enrollment. TABLE 11 Kindergarten Trend Projection Model GRADE K K K K School Enrollment Projection Series: 25

29 Comparison of Projection Models Figures 7-10 and Tables compare the four enrollment projection models broken down by total K-12 district enrollment and by grade groupings. Figure 7 1,000 K-12 Enrollment History and Projections Baseline 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend Kindergarten Trend Actual TABLE 14 Summary of K-12 Enrollment Projections Baseline Year Trend Year "Trend" Kindergarten Trend All of the models presented show enrollment growth (at varying levels) over the next decade. District-wide K-12 enrollment projections five years from now (2014) predict a range of enrollment from 685 (Kindergarten Trend Model) to 732 (2 Year Trend Model). School Enrollment Projection Series: 26

30 Figure K-6 Enrollment History and Projections Baseline 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend Kindergarten Trend Actual TABLE 15 Summary of K-6 Enrollment Projections Baseline Year Trend Year "Trend" Kindergarten Trend For grades K-6 all of the models presented point to increasing enrollment over the next decade. This is due to an increasing trend of births in the long term, and a very quick increase of births in the past few years in particular. Enrollment projections for K-6 enrollment five years out range from a low of 422 students (Baseline Model) to a high of 440 students (2 Year Trend Model). School Enrollment Projection Series: 27

31 Figure Enrollment History and Projections Baseline 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend Kindergarten Trend Actual TABLE 16 Summary of 7-8 Enrollment Projections Baseline Year Trend Year "Trend" Kindergarten Trend At the junior high grade levels, all of the models substantial increases over current enrollment over the next several years due to current small cohorts in grades 7 and 8, and larger existing cohorts and projected births over the next decade. Enrollment projections for five years out (2014/15) range from a low of 99 students (5 Year Trend and Kindergarten Regression models) to a high of 108 students (Baseline model). School Enrollment Projection Series: 28

32 Figure Enrollment History and Projections Baseline 5 Year Trend 2 Year Trend Kindergarten Trend Actual TABLE 17 Summary of 9-12 Enrollment Projections Baseline Year Trend Year "Trend" Kindergarten Trend All of the models project decreasing enrollment at the high school level over the next five years. This is mainly due to current large cohorts of high school students that will graduate, followed by smaller cohorts of students entering high school in the near future. After this point, as the larger cohorts currently in Elementary school move into high school, enrollment is projected to increase substantially. All of the models project declining high school enrollment over the next five years, with enrollment projections in 2014/15 ranging from a low of 161 students (5 Year Trend/Kindergarten Regression Model) to a high of 168 students (Baseline Model and 2 Year Trend Model). School Enrollment Projection Series: 29

33 Conclusions These district-level enrollment projections are based on models that incorporate recent past and current demographic information as well as the district s own enrollment data. Because most of the students in the district s schools over the next few years have already been born or are already in school, and because their grade progression from one year to another is highly predictable, the total district-level projections should be viewed as having high accuracy over the next few years. After a few years, and increasingly for the lower elementary grades, actual enrollment figures will likely deviate from these projections by ever increasing amounts. The reason for this is that birth trends, inmigration of pre-school age children, and transfers into the district are more difficult to predict and therefore this makes meaningful incorporation into enrollment projections a challenge. As with nearly all types of forecasts, accuracy in these enrollment projections decreases over time. In sum, the information provided in this school enrollment projection report points to increasing enrollment in the over the next decade. The Last Two Year Trend model projects substantially higher enrollment than the other models. This is because it is based upon relatively high grade progression ratios and the rate of increasing births experienced in the district in the last two years. If these higher levels of in-migration and transfers into the district are not continued into the future, or if the number of births in the district declines, then this model will not be valid. If these higher levels become a new trend in the district and are continued, then the Last Two Year Trend model would be an important model to consider. Also of note, the Baseline model projects substantially lower enrollment in the latter half of the decade than the other models, particularly at the elementary school level. This is a result of the slower rate of increase in births as compared to the much quicker increase in births seen in the past few years. If the recession causes the increase in births to slow, or creates a sustained period of no housing development in the district, the Baseline model might be an important model to consider. Enrollment projections for the other two models provided (the 5 Year Trend and Kindergarten Regression models) provide projections that fall somewhere between the Baseline and 2 Year Trend models at the end of the decade. Because the projections found in this report incorporate the consequences of migration to and from the Village and Towns, any significant and sustained interruption of current or recent past migration patterns will erode these models accuracy from the initiation point of the new pattern. The various projection models provide a realistic range of migration and transfer effects on the school district. Enrollment growth should be closely monitored for the next few years, and compared with these projections, to determine the trajectory of future growth. This type of monitoring program might help the district to determine which of the models seems to be the most realistic to use for planning purposes. School Enrollment Projection Series: 30

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