FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll

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Nelson Cunningham
6 years ago
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1 FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 24 June 04 Polling was conducted by telephone June 22-23, 2004 in the evenings. The total national sample is 900 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. LV = likely voters In addition, 750 registered voters were interviewed in each of the following four statewide polls (±4): Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The Battlegrounds subgroup includes the following 15 states: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The remaining non-battleground states are divided into Red States (voted for Bush in 2000) and Blue States (gave their electoral votes to Gore) I'm going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of one, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE) SCALE: 1. Favorable 2. Unfavorable 3. (Can't say) 4. Never heard of ********** SUMMARY CHART ********** Favor Unfav Can't Never able orable say heard George W. Bush National 52% Florida 54% Michigan 50% Ohio 51% Pennsylvania 54% John Kerry National 42% Florida 42% Michigan 45% Ohio 45% Pennsylvania 43% Ralph Nader National 21% Florida 24% Michigan 25% Ohio 26% Pennsylvania 26% Jeb Bush (FL only) 54%

2 George W. Bush Favor Unfav Can't Never able orable say heard National 52% Florida 54% Michigan 50% Ohio 51% Pennsylvania 54% Jun 04 52% Jun 04 52% May 04 50% Apr 04 49% Mar 04 50% Mar 04 52% Feb 04 56% Jan 04 54% Nov 03 55% Oct 03 56% Sep 03 53% Aug 03 61% Jun 03 66% Jun 03 67% Mar 03 62% Jan 03 64% Dec 02 68% Dec 02 65% Oct 02 LV 62% Aug 02 72% Jun 02 69% May 02 77% Apr 02 75% Apr 02 79% Feb 02 81% Jan 02 75% Dec 01 84% Nov 01 83% Sep 01 79% Aug 01 56% Jul 01 59% Jul 01 61% Jun 01 59% May 01 59% Apr 01 64% Mar 01 59% Mar 01 61% Favor Unfav Can't Never able orable say heard Feb 01 61% Feb 01 62% Jan 01 61% Jan 01 58% Nov 00 60% Nov 00 LV 56% Oct 00 LV 59% Oct 00 LV 58% Sep 00 LV 58% Sep 00 LV 56% Aug 00 58% Aug 00 62% Jul 00 63% Jul 00 62% Jun 00 59% Jun 00 55% May 00 56% May 00 54% Apr 00 51% Apr 00 54% Mar 00 53% Mar 00 53% Feb 00 51% Feb 00 53% Jan 00 57% Jan 00 62% Dec 99 58% Nov 99 62% Nov 99 58% Oct 99 60% Sep 99 60% Sep 99 61% Aug 99 57% Aug 99 39% Jun 99 65% Jun 99 70% May 98 68%

3 John Kerry Favor Unfav Can't Never able orable say heard National 42% Florida 42% Michigan 45% Ohio 45% Pennsylvania 43% Jun 04 42% Jun 04 44% May 04 39% Apr 04 43% Mar 04 43% Mar 04 47% Jan 04 43% Oct 03 27% Aug 03 22% Jun 03 28% Jan 03 25% Ralph Nader Favor Unfav Can't Never able orable say heard National 21% Florida 24% Michigan 25% Ohio 26% Pennsylvania 26% Jun 04 21% Jun 04 23% Mar 04 30% Jul 00 43% Jeb Bush Florida 54% If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE) SCALE: 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Kerry 3. Independent candidate Ralph Nader 4. (Not sure/other) 5. (Would not vote) Bush Kerry Nader (NS/Other) (Would not vote) National 47% Florida 48% Michigan 42% Ohio 45% Pennsylvania 46% Battlegrounds 43% Red states 55% Blue states 43%

4 Bush Kerry Nader (NS/Other) (Would not vote) Jun 04 47% Jun 04 42% May 04 40% Apr 04 42% Mar 04 43% Feb 04* 43% *Wording: Green Party candidate Ralph Nader 6. If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (rotate order) 1. Republican George W. Bush 2. Democrat John Kerry 3. (Not sure/other) 4. (Would not vote) Bush Kerry (NS/Other) (Would not vote) National 48% Florida 50% Michigan 43% Ohio 47% Pennsylvania 47% Battlegrounds 43% Red states 55% Blue states 44% Jun 04 48% Jun 04 43% May 04 42% May 04 44% Apr 04 43% Apr 04 43% Mar 04 44% Mar 04 44% Feb 04 45% Feb 04 47% Jan 04 49% Jan 04 54% Jul 03 54% May 03 58% Dec 02 57% Do you support (insert candidate choice) strongly or only somewhat? SCALE: 1. Strongly support 2. Only somewhat support 3. (Not sure) --- Bush Voters Kerry Voters --- Strngly Smwht (NS) Strngly Smwht (NS) National 75% 25-53% 45 2 Florida 73% Michigan 75% Ohio 72% Pennsylvania 72% Jun 04 75%

5 18-19 May 04 78% Apr 04 73% Mar 04 75% Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president? Dis- Approve approve (DK) National 49% 44 7 Florida 52% 42 6 Michigan 50% 43 7 Ohio 51% 44 5 Pennsylvania 51% Jun 04 49% Jun 04 48% May 04 48% May 04 49% Apr 04 50% Apr 04 49% Mar 04 47% Mar 04 48% Feb 04 48% Feb 04 53% Jan 04 53% Jan 04 58% Dec 03 52% Nov 03 52% Oct 03 53% Oct 03 52% Sep 03 50% Sep 03 58% Aug 03 57% Jul 03 59% Jul 03 59% Jun-1 Jul 03 60% Jun 03 65% Jun 03 66% May 03 64% May 03 65% Apr 03 65% Apr 03 71% Mar 03 66% Mar 03 60% Feb 03 55% Feb 03 57% Jan 03 59% Jan 03 63% Dec 02 65% Dec 02 65% Dis Approve approve (DK) Nov 02 68% Oct 02 LV 60% Oct 02 LV 66% Sep 02 65% Sep 02 66% Aug 02 69% Jul 02 69% Jul 02 70% Jun 02 73% Jun 02 74% May 02 77% Apr-1 May 02 72% Apr 02 76% Apr 02 79% Mar 02 80% Feb 02 77% Feb 02 81% Jan 02 81% Jan 02 83% Dec 01 86% Nov 01 86% Nov 01 88% Oct-1 Nov 01 84% Oct 01 84% Oct 01 80% Sep 01 81% Aug 01 55% Jul 01 59% Jul 01 56% Jun 01 59% May 01 59% Apr 01 63% Mar 01 57% Mar 01 56% Feb 01 61% Feb 01 55% 16 29

6 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Bush is doing handling the issue of terrorism? Approve Disapprove (Don't know) National 52% 40 8 Florida 54% 39 7 Michigan 53% 39 8 Ohio 55% 39 6 Pennsylvania 54% Jun 04 52% Jan 04 67% Nov 03 57% Sep 03 65% May 03 73% Dec 02 66% Oct 02 LV 67% Sep 02 70% Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Bush is doing managing the economy? Approve Disapprove (Don t know) National 46% 49 5 Florida 48% 45 7 Michigan 44% 51 5 Ohio 45% 51 4 Pennsylvania 49% Jun 04 46% Jan 04 50% Nov 03 43% Sep 03 47% Sep 03 47% Jul 03 47% May 03 45% Apr 03 48% Jan 03 42% Dec 02 47% Oct 02 LV 48% Sep 02 52% Jul 02 55% Jun 02 62% Apr-1 May 02 64% Jan 02 59% Jun 01 52% Mar 01 52% 27 21

7 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing handling the situation with Iraq? Approve Disapprove (Don t know) National 45% 49 6 Florida 44% 49 7 Michigan 43% 48 9 Ohio 46% 48 6 Pennsylvania 44% 50 6 Approve Disapprove (Don t know) Jun 04 45% Jan 04 57% Nov 03 46% Sep 03 54% Jul 03 58% Jul 03 57% Jun-1 Jul 03 60% Apr 03 71% Apr 03 75% Mar 03 69% Feb 03 50% Which one of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president? (ROTATE) --- National State Polls FL MI OH PA Jun 04 May 04 The economy 26% 23% 20% 27% 29% 25% Health care or Medicare Terrorism Homeland Security Education Social Security Iraq Foreign policy Taxes Gay marriage (Not sure) How concerned are you about each of the following? SCALE: 1. Very concerned 2. Somewhat concerned 3. Not very concerned 4. Not at all concerned 5. (Not sure) 6. (Already did) -- Concerned-- - Unconcerned - TOTAL Vry Smwt TOTAL Ntvy Not (NS) (Alrdy) The nation's economy National 85% na Florida 88% na Michigan 88% na Ohio 86% na Pennsylvania 86% na

8 -- Concerned-- - Unconcerned - TOTAL Vry Smwt TOTAL Ntvy Not (NS) (Alrdy) Terrorist attacks National 87% na Florida 87% na Michigan 85% na Ohio 86% na Pennsylvania 89% na Losing your job National 34% Florida 30% Michigan 39% Ohio 36% Pennsylvania 35% Gas prices National 83% na Florida 84% na Michigan 82% na Ohio 84% na Pennsylvania 83% na Decline of moral values National 82% na Florida 85% na Michigan 83% na Ohio 84% na Pennsylvania 87% na Partisan divisions within the country National 71% na Florida 67% na Michigan 67% na Ohio 72% na Pennsylvania 70% na Economy Jun 04 85% na 3-4 Dec 02 86% na Oct 02 LV 90% na Losing job Jun 04 34% May 03 20% Apr 03 42% Terrorist attacks Jun 04 87% na Oct 03 80% na 3-4 Dec 02 80% na

9 22-23 Oct 02 LV 88% na 19. Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you really believe will win the 2004 presidential election - George W. Bush or John Kerry? SCALE: 1. Bush 2. Kerry 3. (Depends/Too soon to say) 4. (Not sure) Bush Kerry (Dpnds) (NS) National 50% Florida 54% Michigan 45% Ohio 51% Pennsylvania 53% Jun 04 50% Apr 04 51% Mar 04* 43% *Wording: who do you think will win 20. Which candidate do you think would do a better job of protecting the United States from terrorist attacks: George W. Bush or John Kerry? (ROTATE) SCALE: 1. Bush 2. Kerry 3. (Both) 4. (Neither) 5. (Not sure) Bush Kerry (Both)(Nthr) (NS) National 49% Florida 55% Michigan 47% Ohio 53% Pennsylvania 56% Jun 04 49% Mar 04 50% 27 na na Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the economy: George W. Bush or John Kerry? (ROTATE) SCALE: 1. Bush 2. Kerry 3. (Both) 4. (Neither) 5. (Not sure) Bush Kerry (Both)(Nthr) (NS) National 42% Florida 43% Michigan 40% Ohio 41% Pennsylvania 43% Jun 04 42% Jun 04 41% May 04 41% Apr 04 39% Mar 04* 39% 46 na na Feb 04* 40% 47 na na 13 *Wording: "Managing the country's"

10 22. Which candidate do you think is more honest and trustworthy: George W. Bush or John Kerry? (ROTATE) SCALE: 1. Bush 2. Kerry 3. (Both) 4. (Neither) 5. (Not sure) Bush Kerry (Both)(Nthr) (NS) National 42% Florida 45% Michigan 41% Ohio 45% Pennsylvania 44% Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Do you feel strongly or only somewhat that it was (right/wrong) to go to war with Iraq? SCALE: 1. Strongly right 2. Somewhat right 3. Somewhat wrong 4. Strongly wrong 5. (Not sure) ---- Right Wrong (Not TOTAL Strngly Smwt TOTAL Smwt Strngly sure) National 50% % Florida 48% % Michigan 49% % Ohio 51% % Pennsylvania 49% % Jun 04 50% % May 04 50% % Apr 04 50% % Dec 03 55% % Oct 03 58% % Sep 03 62% % Jul 03 65% % Jun-1 Jul 03 65% % Do you believe there was a partnership between Iraq and the terrorist group Al Qaeda under Saddam Hussein s regime? 1. Yes 56% 2. No (Not sure) How likely do you think it is that former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein had prior knowledge of the September 11 terrorist attacks? SCALE: 1. Very likely 2. Somewhat likely 3. Not very likely 4. Not at all likely 5. (Not sure) -- Likely Unlikely - TOTAL Vry Smwht TOTAL Ntvry Not (NS) Jun 04 68% Nov 01* 72% Oct-1 Nov 01 79% *Nov 2001 and earlier: that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was involved in the September 11 terrorist attacks? 26. Do you the trust the interim Iraqi government to take custody of Saddam Hussein and keep him from escaping? 1. Yes 29% 2. No (Not sure) 17

11 27. After the June 30 handover of power to the Iraqi interim government, do you think the United States should start bringing some troops home or should U.S. troops stay until more stability is established? 1. Start bringing home 42% 2. Stay until stabilized (Bring all troops home now) 7 4. (Whatever Iraq needs) 2 5. (Not sure) After the June 30 handover, do you support or oppose the United States continuing to fund reconstruction of Iraq? 1. Support 48% 2. Oppose (Not sure) Five years from now, do you think it is more likely that Iraq will have a freely elected government or that it will have some form of dictatorship? 1. Freely elected 34% 2. Dictatorship (Other) 3 4. (Not sure) In the war on terrorism, do you think Saudi Arabia is better described as being a part of the problem or a part of the solution? Problem Solution (Mixed) (Not sure) Jun 04 60% Nov 03 61% Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Saudi Arabia if evidence is found showing that they have been aiding terrorists? Support Oppose (Not sure) Jun 04 44% Jun-1 Jul 03 50% When you hear about beheadings of civilian contractors in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which of the following is closer to your view: 1. The beheadings mean the coalition needs to fight harder and use more military force 37% 2. The beheadings show that the coalition needs to change tactics or pull out (Neither/Other) (Not sure) Do you agree or disagree with the view that the military action being taken abroad in Iraq and Afghanistan is necessary to protect Americans from having to fight terrorists on U.S. soil? Agree Disagree (Not sure) Jun 04 63% Mar 04 57% Sep 03 61% 30 9

12 34. How would you rate your personal financial situation - excellent, good, only fair or poor? Exclnt Good Fair Poor (Not sure) National 14% Florida 15% Michigan 12% Ohio 13% Pennsylvania 13% Jun 04 14% Mar 04 14% Nov 03 7% Sep 03 5% Jun-1 Jul 03 9% Apr 03 9% Do you think it feels like the economy is getting stronger or not? SCALE: 1. Stronger 2. Not stronger 3. (Not sure) Not (Not Stronger Stronger sure) National 47% Florida 49% Michigan 32% Ohio 32% Pennsylvania 30% Jun 04 47% Apr 04* 36% Sep 03 42% Jun 03 37% Sep 02 26% *April 2004 and earlier: For you and your family, does it feel like Do you think the nation s job situation is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same? SCALE: 1. Getting better 2. Getting worse 3. Staying the same 4. (Not sure) Better Worse Same (NS) National 31% Florida 31% Michigan 18% Ohio 21% Pennsylvania 17% How likely do you think it is that there will be a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil later this year to try to influence the outcome of the presidential election? SCALE: 1. Very likely 2. Somewhat likely 3. Not very likely 4. Not at all likely 5. (Not sure) --- Likely Unlikely - TOTAL Vry Smwht TOTAL Ntvry Not (NS) Jun 04 62% % Mar 04 61% %

13 38. Do you think most people you know are more nervous about their jobs or are they more nervous about terrorism? Jobs Terrorism (Both) (Neither) (Not sure) National 50% Florida 46% Michigan 61% Ohio 61% Pennsylvania 53% Jun 04 50% Jun 03 66% Oct 02* 45% *Wording: " about the economy and job security or are they more nervous about terrorism and war?" 39. Do you think you will read former President Bill Clinton s book or do you feel like you ve heard enough about it already from the interviews he s given? All Dem Rep Ind 1. Will read 25% 44% 7% 22% 2. Heard enough (Don't care about book, Clinton) (Not sure) Based on what you ve heard about President Clinton s book, does it seem more like he is taking responsibility for his mistakes or more like he is making excuses? All Dem Rep Ind 1. Taking responsibility 29% 50% 12% 21% 2. Making excuses (Both) (Neither) (Not sure)

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