Demography Briefing: Global

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1 Demography Briefing: Global December 1, 15 Dr. Edward Yardeni Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GLOBAL: Total Fertility Rate, Median Age 1 GLOBAL: Life Expectancy at Birth 2 Urbanization: Global, Developed World 3 Urbanization: Developing World, LDCs 4 Total Fertility Rate: Europe, E.Europe 5 Total Fertility Rate: N.Europe, S.Europe 6 Total Fertility Rate: W.Europe 7 Population Profile: Europe, France 8 Population Profile: Germany, Italy 9 Population Profile: Russia, Spain 1 Population Profile: Sweden, Switzerland 11 Population Profile: UK 12 Median Age: Europe 13 Population of Age Group 15-24: Europe, France 14 Population of Age Group 15-24: Germany, Italy 15 Population of Age Group 15-24: Russia, Spain 16 Population of Age Group 15-24: UK 17 Population of Age Group 15-64: Europe, France 18 Population of Age Group 15-64: Germany, Italy 19 Population of Age Group 15-64: Russia, Spain Population of Age Group 15-64: UK 21 Population of Age Group > 64: Europe, France 22 Population of Age Group > 64: Germany, Italy 23 Population of Age Group > 64: Russia, Spain 24 Population of Age Group > 64: UK 25 Population of Age Group < 15: Europe 26 EU 15 vs. USA 27 Urbanization: N.Europe, S.Europe 28 Urbanization: E.Europe, W.Europe 29 Population Profile, Fertility Rate Age Group 15-24: Population, Population Growth 31 Population : Age Group 15-24, Median Age Across: Time, Countries 33 Dependency Ratio, Employment to Population Ratio(Age 15-24)34 China: Population Japan: Population 39- Urbanization: India, Brazil 41 Urbanization: Russia 42 December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

3 Figure 1. GLOBAL: Total Fertility Rate, Median Age COMPARISON OF TOTAL FERTILITY RATES ACROSS 45 COUNTRIES: 1 (births per woman) Replacement Rate* Philippines Israel Egypt Malaysia India Peru South Africa Mexico Morocco Argentina New Zealand Indonesia Colombia USA Turkey Ireland France Sweden Norway UK Australia Denmark Finland Chile Belgium Brazil Vietnam Netherlands Canada China Thailand Russia Switzerland Czech Republic Austria Greece Italy Germany Japan Spain Poland Portugal Hungary * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. In developed countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate and for emerging countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Figure 2. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AGE ACROSS 45 COUNTRIES: 1 (years) Japan Germany Page 1 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global Italy Finland Austria Switzerland Greece Belgium Portugal Netherlands Sweden Denmark Spain France Canada Hungary United Kingdom Czech Republlic Norway Poland Russia Korea Singapore Australia USA New Zealand Ireland China Thailand Chile Argentina Israel Brazil Turkey Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Mexico Morocco Malaysia Peru India South Africa Egypt Korea Philippines www. 5

4 GLOBAL: Life Expectancy at Birth 1 9 Figure 3. COMPARISON OF LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH ACROSS 45 COUNTRIES: 1 (years) Japan Switzerland Italy Australia Singapore Source: World Bank. Spain Israel Sweden France Norway Canada Korea Netherlands New Zealand UK Greece Austria Ireland Germany Belgium Finland Denmark Portugal Chile USA Czech Republic Mexico Poland Argentina Vietnam Hungary Malaysia Thailand Peru Turkey Colombia China Brazil Egypt Morocco Indonesia Russia Philippines India South Africa Page 2 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

5 Urbanization: Global, Developed World 7 6 Figure 4. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: WORLD (percent of total population) Figure POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: DEVELOPED WORLD* (percent of total population) * As defined by United Nations, includes North Ameria, Europe, Japan and Australia/New Zealand. Page 3 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

6 8 7 6 Figure 6. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: DEVELOPING WORLD* (percent of total population) Urbanization: Developing World, LDCs * As defined by United Nations, includes countries not categorized as Developed World and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Figure 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: LDC* (percent of total population) * Least Developed Countries, as definied by United Nations and include 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 6 in Oceania and 1 in Latin America/Carribean. Page 4 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 55 1 www.

7 Figure 8. Total Fertility Rate: Europe, E.Europe FERTILITY RATE: EURO AREA (births per woman) EU Fertility Rate Replacement Level* * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank Figure 9. FERTILITY RATES: EASTERN EUROPE (births per woman) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Replacement Rate* Russia * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Page 5 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

8 4 Figure 1. Total Fertility Rate: N.Europe, S.Europe FERTILITY RATES: NORTHERN EUROPE (births per woman) Denmark Finland Ireland Norway Sweden UK Replacement Rate* * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. 3 Figure 11. FERTILITY RATES: SOUTHERN EUROPE (births per woman) Greece Italy Portugal Replacement Rate* Spain * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Page 6 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

9 Figure 12. Total Fertility Rate: W.Europe FERTILITY RATES: WESTERN EUROPE (births per woman) Austria Belgium France Germany Netherlands Switzerland Replacement Rate* * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Page 7 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

10 Figure 13. Population Profile: Europe, France POPULATION PROFILE: EU (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Figure 14. POPULATION PROFILE: FRANCE (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Page 8 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

11 Figure 15. Population Profile: Germany, Italy POPULATION PROFILE: GERMANY (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Figure 16. POPULATION PROFILE: ITALY (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Page 9 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

12 Figure 17. Population Profile: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROFILE: RUSSIA (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Figure 18. POPULATION PROFILE: SPAIN (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Page 1 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

13 Figure 19. Population Profile: Sweden, Switzerland POPULATION PROFILE: SWEDEN (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Figure. POPULATION PROFILE: SWITZERLAND (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Page 11 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

14 Figure 21. Population Profile: UK POPULATION PROFILE: UK (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Page 12 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

15 Median Age: Europe 45 Figure 22. MEDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION OF EUROPE (years) Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Eastern Europe Southern Europe Figure 23. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AGE ACROSS EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: 1 (years) Germany Italy Finland Austria Switzerland Greece Belgium Portugal Netherlands Sweden Denmark Spain France Hungary United Kingdom Czech Republic Norway Poland Russia Ireland Page 13 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

16 1 11 Population of Age Group 15-24: Europe, France Figure 24. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: EUROPE Figure POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: FRANCE Page 14 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www

17 14 13 Population of Age Group 15-24: Germany, Italy Figure 26. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: GERMANY Figure 27. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: ITALY 19 Page 15 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

18 28 Figure 28. Population of Age Group 15-24: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: RUSSIA Figure 29. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: SPAIN 19 Page 16 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

19 1 Figure. Population of Age Group 15-24: UK POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: UK Page 17 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

20 525 Population of Age Group 15-64: Europe, France Figure 31. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: EUROPE Figure POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: FRANCE Page 18 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

21 6 Population of Age Group 15-64: Germany, Italy Figure 33. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: GERMANY Figure POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: ITALY Page 19 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

22 18 99 Figure 35. Population of Age Group 15-64: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: RUSSIA Figure 36. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: SPAIN Page / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

23 Population of Age Group 15-64: UK Figure 37. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: UK Page 21 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

24 21 18 Figure 38. Population of Age Group > 64: Europe, France POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: EUROPE Figure POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: FRANCE Page 22 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www. 5

25 28 24 Figure. Population of Age Group > 64: Germany, Italy POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: GERMANY Figure POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: ITALY Page 23 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www. 6

26 35 Figure 42. Population of Age Group > 64: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: RUSSIA Figure POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: SPAIN Page 24 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www. 8 4

27 Population of Age Group > 64: UK Figure 44. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: UK Page 25 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

28 18 Figure 45. Population of Age Group < 15: Europe POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF -14 AGE GROUP: EUROPE Page 26 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

29 EU 15 vs. USA 85 8 Figure 46. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE*, AGE GROUP 15-64: USA VIS-A-VIS EU** (percentage of age group population) USA EU * Percentage of the adult population (Age group 15-64) who are in the labor forces ** Based on EU 15, comprising of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxemborg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom Source: OECD Figure 47. EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO*, AGE GROUP 15-64: USA VIS-A-VIS EU** (percentage of age group population) USA EU * Percentage of the adult population (Age group 15-64) who are employed ** Based on EU 15, comprising of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxemborg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom Source: OECD. Page 27 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

30 1 9 8 Figure 48. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: NORTHERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) Urbanization: N.Europe, S.Europe * Northern Europe includes Channel Islands, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Isle of Man, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and United Kingdom. Figure 49. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: SOUTHERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) * Southern Europe includes Albania, Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Gibraltar, Greece, Holy See, Italy, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain and Macedonia. Page 28 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

31 9 8 7 Figure. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: EASTERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) Urbanization: E.Europe, W.Europe * Eastern Europe includes Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia and Ukraine. Figure 51. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: WESTERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) * Western Europe includes Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands and Switzerland. Page 29 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

32 Figure 52. Population Profile, Fertility Rate POPULATION PROFILE: CHINA (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age < Age Source: World Bank Figure 53. FERTILITY RATE: CHINA (births per woman) China Fertility Rate Replacement Rate* * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reach 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for emerging countries, a rate of Source: World Bank. Page / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

33 Age Group 15-24: Population, Population Growth Figure 54. POPULATION OF AGE GROUP 15-24: CHINA Figure 55. POPULATION GROWTH OF AGE GROUP 15-24: CHINA (percentage annual) Page 31 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

34 2 Population : Age Group 15-24, Figure 56. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF AGE GROUP: CHINA Figure PROJECTIONS OF WORKING AGE POPULATION 15-64: CHINA Page 32 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

35 Median Age Across: Time, Countries 35 Figure 58. MEDIAN AGE: CHINA (years) Figure 59. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AGE OF: CHINA (years) Lastest data as of Japan Germany Italy Finland Austria Switzerland Greece Belgium Portugal Netherlands Sweden Denmark Spain France Canada Hungary United Kingdom Czech Republlic Norway Poland Russia Korea Singapore Australia USA New Zealand Page 33 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global Ireland China Thailand Chile Argentina Israel Brazil Turkey Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Mexico Morocco Malaysia Peru India South Africa Egypt Philippines www.

36 Dependency Ratio, Employment to Population Ratio(Age 15-24) Figure 6. Overall Dependency Ratio*: CHINA (percentage of working population) < Age 15 > Age * A measure of the portion of a population which is composed of dependents (people who are too young or too old to work), expressed as a percentage of the working age population (age group 15-64). Overall Dependency Ratio = Dependency Ratio of Age Group < 15 + Dependency Ratio of Age Group > 64. Source: World Bank. Figure 61. EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO, AGE GROUP 15-24: CHINA (percentage of age group population) Female Male Total Source: World Bank. Page 34 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

37 Figure 62. CHINA: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS (billions of persons) China: Population Source: United Nations World Population Prospects Figure 63. CHINA: POPULATION (1-year change, millions of persons) Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. Page 35 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

38 25 Figure 64. CHINA: RURAL POPULATION (yearly change in millions) China: Population Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, World Urbanization Prospects and Haver Analytics. Figure 65. CHINA: URBAN POPULATION (yearly change in millions) Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. Page 36 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

39 Figure CHINA: RURAL POPULATION 92 9 (as a percent of total population) Source: State Statistical Bureau, People s Republic of China. China: Population 6 Figure 67. CHINA: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN URBAN AREAS (percent) Source: State Statistical Bureau, People s Republic of China. 1 Page 37 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

40 China: Population Figure 68. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: CHINA (percent of total population) Page 38 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

41 1 Figure 69. JAPAN: POPULATION* (millions, 12-month average) Japan: Population 1 Nov * Population data starting in October 1 are based on the preliminary count of the 1 Population Census while population data prior to October 1 are based on the old 5 Population Census. Source: Ministry of Public Management Figure 7. JAPAN: POPULATION* (yearly percent change in 12-month average) Nov * Population data starting in October 1 are based on the preliminary count of the 1 Population Census while population data prior to October 1 are based on the old 5 Population Census * Source: Ministry of Public Management. Page 39 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

42 Japan: Population Figure 71. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: JAPAN (percent of total population) Page / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

43 Urbanization: India, Brazil 6 Figure 72. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: INDIA (percent of total population) Figure POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: BRAZIL (percent of total population) Page 41 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

44 Urbanization: Russia 9 8 Figure 74. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: RUSSIA (percent of total population) Page 42 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

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