DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT

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1 A V I D M i d d l e S c h o o l DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT L139 Education Building, 1000 Bascom Mall, Madison, WI School of Education, University of Wisconsin-Madison avid.org wihopelab.com wiscape.wisc.edu

2 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Authors Dr. Peter Kinsley Senior Researcher Wisconsin HOPE Lab Jamie Hawkins Project Assistant Wisconsin HOPE Lab Dr. Jed Richardson Acting Director Wisconsin HOPE Lab Acknowledgments This report is the product of the Wisconsin HOPE Lab under the directorship of Dr. Jed Richardson. Dr. Peter Kinsley, Senior Researcher, conducted primary data analysis and drafted the report. Jamie Hawkins, Project Assistant, contributed to data preparation and analysis, and created all charts and figures. Alison Bowman, Wisconsin HOPE Lab Associate Director, and Minhtuyen Mai, Research Specialist, created the layout design. The authors would also like to thank Dr. Sara Goldrick-Rab for her help and guidance throughout the report preparation process. Tables provided by the Madison Metropolitan School District are courtesy of Langston P. Evans, District Coordinator. ii

3 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Table Of Contents Executive Summary... 1 Introduction... 3 The Wisconsin HOPE Lab Evaluation of Student Outcomes... 3 Overview of... 3 History of and the Partnership with the Madison Metropolitan School District and Boys and Girls Club of Dane County... 4 National Certification... 5 Middle School Implementation... 6 Middle School Program Retention... 6 Study Methodology... 8 Eighth-Grade s... 9 Eighth-Grade s: Combined Cohort Eighth-Grade s: 2016 Cohort Ninth-Grade s Ninth-Grade s: Combined Cohort Comparison of Annual 9th Grade s: 2014 to Ninth- Grade s: 2016 Cohort Summary Appendix: Middle School Tables iii

4 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Executive Summary The Madison Metropolitan School District (MMSD) has partnered with the Wisconsin HOPE Lab to conduct an assessment of the Advancement via Individual Determination () program in district middle schools. is a national college readiness system designed to increase academic achievement, college preparation, postsecondary educational access, and degree attainment for students in the academic middle (i.e. grade point averages between 2.0 and 3.5) who are traditionally underrepresented in higher education. Since 2009, the program has operated in all four comprehensive MMSD high schools. In 2012, the program was also expanded to 11 of 12 district middle schools. The Middle School report analyzes measurable student outcomes for the program that reflect the program s stated goals. The assessment focuses on Middle School program impacts in two areas 8th grade academic outcomes and 9th grade academic outcomes. Research questions guiding these analyses are as follows: 1. How does the 8th grade academic achievement of students who participated in the middle school program compare to academically and demographically similar non- peers? a. What have been the program s overall impacts on 8th grade academic achievement over the past four years? b. What were the program s impacts on 8th grade academic achievement in 2016? 2. How does the 9th grade academic achievement of students who participated in the middle school program compare to academically and demographically similar non- peers? a. What have been the program s overall impacts on 9th grade academic achievement over the past three years? b. Have 9th grade achievement impacts remained consistent over the past three years? c. What were the program s impacts on 9th grade academic achievement in 2016? Methodology Estimates of program effects were computed using propensity score matching. This statistical method matches and non- students based on the individual probability of middle school participation using 6th grade pre-participation data. Groups were matched within cohort and high school feeder pattern, and balanced within racial and socioeconomic categories. This means that rather than comparing selected students to all of their grade-level peers, they were compared to other students who had similar academic and demographic profiles but chose not to participate. We conducted this matching process on two separate samples district 8th graders and district 9th graders. in our 8th grade sample were drawn from four 8th grade cohorts: 2013, 2014, 2015 & in our 9th grade sample were drawn from three 9th grade cohorts: 2014, 2015 & The 8th grade student sample is 71% lowincome and 75% students of color. Slightly less than half are male, 39% are English language learners, and 8% are in special education. The 9th grade student sample is 70% low-income, 74% students of color, and 47% male. Approximately 40% are English language learners and 9% are in special education. Findings The impacts of the middle school program are broadly similar to those from prior years. However, with increased sample sizes gained from conducting a multi-cohort analysis, statistical significance could be better detected when impacts were smaller. Highlights include: 1. On average, the program has had modest positive impacts on 8th grade academic achievement and school attendance, particularly for low-income students and students of color. District-wide, students have earned cumulative GPAs around.05 of a grade point higher on average than their non- 1

5 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT counterparts. Core GPAs have been similarly higher at.07 of a grade point. The impact has been slightly larger for low-income students (.07 of a grade point higher cumulative GPA and.09 of a grade point higher core GPA), and for students of color (.06 of a grade point and.08 of a grade point higher for cumulative and core GPA respectively). students have had fewer unexcused days absent overall than similar non-program peers around three quarters of a day on average. This effect has been generally larger among low-income students, who have been absent about a full day less on average than similar low-income students who did not participate in the program. 2. Participation in during the 8th grade has helped students remain on track academically during 9th grade, particularly for low-income students and students of color. who participated in during the 8th grade have earned higher cumulative and core GPAs in the 9th grade than their peers, amounting to just over a tenth of a grade point on average. s have been larger for low-income students at nearly twotenths of a grade point, and for students of color at around.15 of a grade point. Eighth-grade students have logged fewer unexcused days absent in the 9th grade nearly 1.5 days fewer on average than those who did not participate. Among low-income students and students of color, this number was around two full days fewer absences. Eighth-grade students have also earned more credits in the 9th grade (6.57 for vs for the comparison group overall), and have failed fewer courses (.89 for vs for the comparison group). Again, for low-income students and students of color, these impacts were somewhat larger. The positive impacts of 8th grade on 9th grade academic outcomes appear to have remained generally consistent over the past three years. However, program impacts on attendance may have increased somewhat in Participation in 8th grade appears to have increased early college math readiness among 9th graders in who participated in 8th grade scored significantly higher on the ASPIRE math test the following year as 9th graders than similar non-participants about a point higher on average. Among students of color, however, this impact approached two full points higher. 2

6 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Introduction The Madison Metropolitan School District (MMSD) is a large and increasingly diverse urban school district, serving 27,000 students in 48 schools. Nearly half of the students in the district come from low-income families, and over half identify as students of color. Equity is a serious concern in MMSD as the district has grappled for many years with persistent socioeconomic gaps in academic achievement and high school graduation rates. In 2007, as part of an effort to close these achievement gaps, MMSD began to implement the national (Advancement via Individual Determination) system at East High School. In 2008, the district joined forces with the Boys and Girls Club of Dane County (BGCDC) to pair with BGCDC s Teens of Promise (TOPS) program, and the following year the combined /TOPS program was offered in all four of the district s comprehensive high schools. Starting in 2012, the program was expanded to 11 district middle schools, and BGCDC also began implementing the College Club program at selected middle schools that same year. Since 2014, the Madison Metropolitan School District has partnered with the Wisconsin HOPE Lab at the University of Wisconsin-Madison to conduct an annual assessment of the district s program. The assessment focuses on estimating Middle School program impacts in two areas 8th grade academic outcomes and 9th grade academic outcomes. Research questions guiding these analyses are as follows: 1. How does the 8th grade academic achievement of students who participated in the middle school program compare to academically and demographically similar non- peers? a. What have been the program s overall impacts on 8th grade academic achievement over the past four years? b. What were the program s impacts on 8th grade academic achievement in 2016? 2. How does the 9th grade academic achievement of students who participated in the middle school program compare to academically and demographically similar non- peers? a. What have been the program s overall impacts on 9th grade academic achievement over the past three years? b. Have 9th grade achievement impacts remained consistent over the past three years? c. What were the program s impacts on 9th grade academic achievement in 2016? Overview of Advancement via Individual Determination () is a national college readiness system consisting of two interrelated components designed to increase academic achievement, college preparation, and postsecondary educational access and degree attainment for underrepresented students in the academic middle: 1. An elective class aimed at preparing a select group of students for entrance and enrollment in post-secondary education. aims to serve students in the academic middle ( gradepoint average) who may be first generation, low-income, historically underrepresented in post-secondary education, and/or have special circumstances. 2. also functions as a school-wide system of transformation. A strong system focuses on increasing college readiness for all elective students, as well as improving academic performance for all students, by transforming the instruction, systems, leadership, and culture of a school. The elective class includes a curriculum that focuses on developing students writing, inquiry, organization, and reading skills to help students 3

7 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT become college ready. Additionally, students develop critical reasoning and thinking skills through work in small, collaborative tutorial groups. The purpose of the elective class is for students to gain the skills and receive the support to enroll and graduate from a post-secondary institution. All schools adhere to the 11 Essentials that the national College Readiness System requires. Essential 1: Student Selection student selection must focus on students in the academic middle, with academic potential, who would benefit from support to improve their academic records and begin college preparation. Essential 2: Voluntary Participation program participants, both students and staff, must choose to participate in the program. Essential 3: Scheduling The school must commit to fully implementing by providing and enrolling students in the yearlong elective classes offered within the regular school day. Essential 4: College Readiness students must enroll in a rigorous course of study that will enable them to meet the requirements for university enrollment. Essential 5: Organization The elective class must provide instruction aimed at developing students organizational skills to promote their academic self-management. Essential 6: Reading and Writing The elective class must rely on strong, relevant writing and reading curriculum as its basis for instruction. Essential 7: Inquiry and Collaboration The elective class must promote critical thinking through inquiry and collaboration. Essential 8: Tutorial The program must provide a sufficient number of tutors in the classroom to facilitate student access to a college-preparatory curriculum. Tutors should be enrolled in college and universities, be able to mentor students and facilitate tutorials, and they must be trained to implement methodologies with students. Essential 9: Data Use program implementation and student progress must be monitored through the data entry system, and results must be analyzed to ensure student success. Progress monitoring must also inform instruction. Essential 10: Professional Learning The school or district must implement the Essentials, participate in the annual certification process, and provide ongoing professional development for both and non- teachers. Essential 11: Site Teams The school must support an active, interdisciplinary site team that collaborates to help students access and succeed in rigorous college preparatory courses. History of and the Partnership with the Madison Metropolitan School District and Boys and Girls Club of Dane County MMSD piloted the program at East High School in was implemented in the district middle schools starting in At that time, MMSD and BGCDC also established the College Club in Cherokee and Wright middle schools. College Club middle schoolers receive additional supports including after-school tutoring, cultural field trips, and family engagement events. In addition, Cherokee and Wright receive additional funding and personnel support from BGCDC. 4

8 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT National Certification The national Center monitors the elective class through an extensive certification process encompassing the 11 Essentials. The Essentials focus on student selection into the program, the use of strategies, student access to rigorous course work, and effective site team practices. In addition, schools must show evidence of using strategies beyond the elective classroom and throughout the general academic program. All MMSD middle schools received certification during their third year of implementation in Each middle school received at least a 1 (meets certification) in all 11 Essentials. In 2016 in the fourth year of middle school implementation, scores improved in 10 of the 11 essentials (Figure 1). Overall, the MMSD program has demonstrated strengths in the areas of student selection, course scheduling, and site team leadership. Areas for improvement include the development and implementation of Writing, Inquiry, Collaboration, Organization, and Reading (WICOR) within the elective class, use of data for monitoring and improvement, and greater access to advanced coursework. Legend FIGURE 1: AVERAGE MIDDLE SCHOOL CERTIFICATION SCORES BY THE 11 ESSENTIALS Each Essential can receive a maximum score of 3. Figures provided by MMSD. Certification Score Student Selection Voluntary Participation Scheduling College Readiness Organization Writing And Reading Inquiry Tutorial Data Use Professional Learning Site Teams 5

9 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Implementation During the school year MMSD offered 24 sections of in grades 7 and 8, serving 510 students (Table 1). Generally, one class per grade was offered in middle school. In , served approximately 15% of MMSD s 7th and 8th grade student population. Seventy-six percent of middle school students were eligible for free or reduced price lunch, and 56% were female (Table 2). While the district is 19% African American and 21% Hispanic, these groups represent 25% and 41% of the population respectively. Following the national trend, boys (44%) are under-enrolled in. TABLE 1: MIDDLE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND NUMBER OF COURSE SECTIONS Grade Level Enrollment Sections Per Grade Total Source: MMSD. Notes: Enrollment based on 3rd Friday September counts. Sennett MS offers three elective courses that are multi-age 7th and 8th grade students. TABLE 2: MIDDLE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT BY STUDENT BACKGROUND CHARACTERISTICS 7th Grade District 8th Grade District District Total Total Low- Income Female Black Hispanic Asian White ELL Special Education % 54% 25% 39% 11% 19% 48% 7% % 59% 25% 43% 10% 13% 47% 5% % 56% 25% 41% 11% 16% 48% 6% Source: MMSD. Program Retention and wraparound programs (e.g. College Club) seek to retain all students who enroll in the elective class. who are struggling academically are identified and closely monitored by a school-based site team. Student attrition from typically occurs through three avenues: (1) they leave the district or transfer to a district school that does not offer programming such as Badger Rock Charter Middle School; (2) they voluntarily drop the elective course, or; (3) they are asked to exit from the program because their cumulative grade point average drops below 2.0 for more than one semester. Among 7th graders in , 83% enrolled in the program again as 8th graders for the

10 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT academic year (Figure 2). Seventh to 8th grade retention rates of between 80% and 90% were common across most demographic subgroups. African American students were retained in the program at a slightly lower rate of 79%, while English language learners and Asian students were retained at higher rates of 90% and 93% respectively. Overall retention in the program as students made the transition from middle school to high school was considerably lower at 58% (Figure 3). However, there was variation in retention rates between students from different backgrounds. Hispanic, Asian and ELL students had notably higher rates of retention at 69% for each group. students and White students, on the other hand, were much less likely to enroll in during their 9th grade year at 54% and 35%. FIGURE 2: RETENTION FROM 7th GRADE TO 8th GRADE 100% Retention 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 83% 83% 86% 80% 79% 88% 93% 80% 71% 90% 81% District Low-income Female African American Hispanic Asian White Multiracial ELL Special Ed FIGURE 3: RETENTION FROM 8th GRADE TO 9th GRADE 100% Retention 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 58% 64% 62% 54% 58% 69% 69% 35% 48% 69% 50% District Low-income Female African American Hispanic Asian White Multiracial ELL Special Ed Source: MMSD. 7

11 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Study Methodology We estimated the effects of middle school participation using propensity score matching. This statistical method allowed students to be compared with other students who had similar academic and demographic profiles but who did not participate in the program--a more apples to apples comparison. Our approach matched students based on the individual probability of middle school participation computed for each student within each MMSD high school feeder pattern (Table 3). 1 Because we used multiple cohort years in our analyses, we performed this matching process separately for each cohort to ensure that students and their matched non- counterparts were exposed to the same school environments (e.g. school policies, leadership & peers) which might otherwise bias our estimates. Matching within cohort also enabled us to compare program effect estimates on 9th grade outcomes across cohorts. TABLE 3: FEEDER MIDDLE SCHOOLS High School East La Follette Memorial West Middle Schools Blackhawk; O'Keefe; Sherman Badger Rock Charter; Sennett; Whitehorse Jefferson; Spring Harbor; Toki Cherokee; Hamilton; Wright To maximize the overall quality of the matching process, we allowed students to be matched with more than one similar non- comparison student. All final estimates were weighted to adjust for the number of matched partners. Pairing was based on the probability of program participation as calculated from the student s sixth-grade pre-program characteristics. These baseline characteristics were derived from district administrative records, and included student demographics (e.g. gender, race/ethnicity, lowincome status, parent education, 2 English language learner status, special education status), academic and behavioral records, attendance, and WKCE Reading and Math scores. 3 In cases where particular baseline information for a given student was missing, we substituted predicted (imputed) values based on other observed characteristics. 4 This allowed us to keep these students in our analyses rather than drop them and risk biasing our results. We conducted this matching process on two separate samples district 8th graders and district 9th graders. in our 8th grade sample were drawn from four 8th grade cohorts: 2013, 2014, 2015 & in our 9thgrade sample were drawn from three 9th grade cohorts: 2014, 2015 & We used the matched 8th grade sample to estimate the impacts of middle school participation on the focal 8th grade outcomes of cumulative and core 6 GPA, attendance, and spring MAP Reading and Math scores. With the matched 9th grade sample we examined how participation in middle school impacted 9th grade outcomes once students 1 Due to the relatively small number of traditionally underserved students targeted by the program at some district middle schools, matches could only be conducted within feeder patterns, and not within individual schools. 2 The use of parent education in our matching process represents a change to our analysis strategy from prior years. Although the relationship between parent education and school outcomes is well established in the research literature, missing data previously prevented the use of parent education for matching. However, recent published guidance on dealing with missing values in propensity score matching allowed us to account for the influence of parent education in all of our impact estimates while also accounting for missing values. For more information see: chapter/ / _5. 3 We use 6th grade WKCE scores instead of MAP scores for matching due to their availability for all cohorts used in our analyses. 4 Approximately 10% of the students in our samples had missing values for parent education. We used the technique of multiple imputation to handle these missing values in our matching and analyses. 5 in the 2013 cohort were enrolled for the 2012/13 academic year. Each cohort year we reference follows this same pattern. 6 Core classes include math, science, language arts and social studies. 8

12 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT made the transition to high school. We estimated the impacts of middle school participation on the outcomes of 9th grade cumulative and core GPA, attendance, and credit accumulation as represented by the average number of earned credits and failed courses in the 9th grade. Throughout the report we note significant program impacts using a confidence level (α=.05) unless specifically stated otherwise. Like all non-experimental studies relying on observational data, the present study is subject to certain limitations. Most notably, and non- students could only be matched on the pre-program characteristics present in district administrative records. While these records allowed us to control for a comprehensive array of academic and demographic pre-program information that would otherwise bias estimates of program impact, remaining bias from other preexisting but unobserved factors is still possible. The analysis therefore bears this risk in absence of better strategies for estimating program effects. 8th Grade s Eighth-Grade Sample The statistical matching process for the combined cohort 8th grade sample resulted in a matched comparison group of non- students who closely resembled their counterparts on 6th grade characteristics. Figure 4 presents the demographic makeup of the two groups, as well as the demographic profile of the full district for comparison. Among both students and their FIGURE 4: DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF 8TH GRADE SAMPLE White Low-income Parents: High School or Less Parents: Two-Year Deg. Parents: Four-Year Deg. English Language Learner Special Education 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% MMSD Comparison Group 9

13 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT matched comparison group peers, students of color made up three-quarters of the sample. Lowincome students also represented more than twothirds of the matched sample. Slightly less than half of and comparison group students were male, while nearly 40% were English language learners. in the matched sample most commonly had parents who had never attended college. However, just over a quarter had parents who had earned a four-year college degree or higher. Table 4 shows that students and their comparison group counterparts had nearly identical academic histories at the start of middle school. This was true in terms of their 6th grade GPA, as well as their 6th grade WKCE Reading and Math scores. As determined by selection, students in the matched 8th grade sample came from the academic middle, with an average GPA of around 3.0 as 6th graders. All baseline measures presented in Figure 4 and Table 4 were statistically equivalent between students and their comparison group peers. 7 Nevertheless, we make statistical adjustments for any residual imbalance between the two groups in all of our impact estimates. 8 TABLE 4: DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF EIGHTH-GRADE SAMPLE BY MIDDLE SCHOOL AND MATCHED COMPARISON GROUP MMSD Comparison Group Sixth Grade Cumulative GPA Sixth Grade Core GPA Sixth Grade Attendance Rate 96% 96% Sixth Grade Behavior Events Sixth Grade WKCE Math Score Sixth Grade WKCE Reading Score Throughout the report, statements of statistical significance are based on a confidence level, with α= estimates are derived from regression models, which control for any residual imbalance in baseline characteristics between and comparison group students. 10

14 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Eighth-Grade s: Combined Cohort ( ) estimates in this section are based on analyses combining four eighth-grade cohorts: They thus represent the average impacts of participation over that four-year period. Our evaluation of the middle school program indicates that it has had positive average effects on academic achievement. We also found positive average effects on school attendance. In both cases, however, effects were generally modest. We did not find any effects of the program on standardized test performance as measured by eighth-grade MAP scores. We detail each of these findings below. Legend : Eighth-Grade Grade Point Average There is evidence of positive average program impacts on 8th grade academic performance. students earned higher cumulative and core GPAs than their non- peers. This was true both at the district level and across most focal subgroups with the exception of white students (Figures 5 & 6). Differences in cumulative and core GPAs were generally statistically significant, with the exception of core GPA at the district level which was only marginally non-significant. Key Finding: students earned higher cumulative and core 8th grade GPAs than their peers. COMPARISON GROUP FIGURE 5: EIGHTH-GRADE CUMULATIVE GPA BY PARTICIPATION AT THE 90% Cumulative GPA District Low-income White Low-income AT THE 11

15 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend FIGURE 6: EIGHTH-GRADE CORE GPA BY PARTICIPATION Core GPA COMPARISON GROUP District Low-income White Low-income AT THE 90% AT THE 12

16 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend COMPARISON GROUP : Eighth-Grade Attendance There is evidence that participation reduced the number of unexcused absent days among 8th grade participants, and increased the general attendance of participants. At the district level and across most focal subgroups, 8th graders had significantly fewer unexcused absent days than their comparison group peers (Figure 7). Attendance rates for students were also significantly higher than their comparison g r o u p counterparts (Figure 8). Key Finding: students had significantly fewer unexcused absent days and higher attendance rates in the 8th grade than their peers. FIGURE 7: EIGHTH-GRADE UNEXCUSED DAYS ABSENT BY PARTICIPATION 4 AT THE 90% Unexcused Days Absent District Low-income White Low-income FIGURE 8: EIGHTH-GRADE ATTENDANCE BY PARTICIPATION AT THE Attendance Rate 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 94% District Low-income White Low-income 94% 96% Comparison Group 13

17 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend : Eighth-Grade MAP Test Scores We did not find evidence of average effects on 8th grade MAP test performance. At the district level and across most subgroups, students earned statistically similar scores to their comparison group peers on the MAP math and reading tests (Figures 9 & 10). The one exception to this was white participants whose MAP reading scores were about 1.7 points lower on average than their matched peers a significant difference between the two groups. FIGURE 9: EIGHTH-GRADE MAP MATH SCORES BY PARTICIPATION COMPARISON GROUP AT THE 90% MAP Math Score District Low-income White Low-income FIGURE 10: EIGHTH-GRADE MAP READING SCORES BY PARTICIPATION AT THE MAP Reading Score District Low-income White Low-income

18 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Eighth-Grade s: 2016 Cohort While the previous section presented average impacts over the four-year period of 2012 to 2016, here we present a more fine-grained picture of impacts for the 2016 cohort alone. This picture includes impacts at the district level, as well as within demographic subgroups and high school feeder patterns. Our evaluation of the th grade cohort indicates that the program had few effects on 8th grade academic performance as measured by GPA, attendance and MAP test scores. This was true both at the district level, and within key demographic subgroups. We detail our findings from the 2016 cohort below. Legend : Eighth-Grade Grade Point Average (2016) There was no evidence of program impacts on eighth-grade academic performance in students and their comparison group counterparts had statistically similar cumulative and core GPAs (Figures 11 & 12). This was true both at the district level and across all focal subgroups. FIGURE 11: th GRADE CUMULATIVE GPA BY PARTICIPATION COMPARISON GROUP Cumulative GPA AT THE 90% District Low-income White Low-income AT THE 15

19 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend FIGURE 12: th GRADE CORE GPA BY PARTICIPATION 4.00 Core GPA COMPARISON GROUP District Low-income White Low-income AT THE 90% AT THE 16

20 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend : Eighth-Grade Attendance (2016) There is some limited evidence that participation reduced the number of unexcused absent days and increased attendance in At the district level and across most focal subgroups, 8th graders had fewer unexcused absent days than their comparison group peers (Figure 13). However, these differences were not large enough to achieve statistical significance. Eighth-grade attendance rates were also slightly higher for students than for comparison group students, yet were similarly non- significant (Figure 14). COMPARISON GROUP FIGURE 13: th GRADE UNEXCUSED DAYS ABSENT BY PARTICIPATION 4 AT THE 90% Unexcused Days Absent District Low-income White Low-income FIGURE 14: th GRADE ATTENDANCE BY PARTICIPATION 100% AT THE Attendance Rate 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 96% 96% District Low-income White Low-income 96% 96% 96% 96% 17

21 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend : Eighth-Grade MAP Test Scores There is no evidence that participation impacted 8th grade MAP scores in At the district level and across all subgroups, FIGURE 15: th GRADE MAP MATH BY PARTICIPATION students earned similar average scores on the 8th grade spring MAP math and reading tests to their comparison group peers (Figures 15 & 16). COMPARISON GROUP AT THE 90% MAP Math Score District Low-income White Low-income FIGURE 16: th GRADE MAP READING BY PARTICIPATION AT THE MAP Reading Score District Low-income White Low-income

22 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Eighth-Grade s by High School Feeder Pattern An examination of 8th grade impacts by high school feeder pattern (i.e. which high school the middle school feeds into) revealed little variation in effects in 2016 (Table 5). We did find some evidence of a positive effect on core GPA equivalent to a tenth of a grade point among East middle school students an effect that was generally absent in the other feeder patterns. However, due to the relatively small sizes of the feeder pattern samples, this effect did not achieve statistical significance. Performance on all other outcomes was statistically identical between students and their comparison group peers within each of the four high school feeder patterns. TABLE 5: TH GRADE IMPACTS BY HIGH SCHOOL FEEDER PATTERN Outcome East Schools La Follette Schools Memorial Schools West Schools Comp. Comp. Comp. Comp. Cumulative GPA Core GPA Unexcused Days Absent Attendance Rate MAP Math Score MAP Reading Score Note: Bold indicates statistically significant difference (p<.05) 19

23 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT 9th Grade s Overall, our statistical matching process resulted in a 9th grade combined cohort research sample with extremely similar and comparison group students. Figure 17 presents the demographic makeup of the two groups compared to the general population of district students prior to matching. Both the and comparison group students were over two-thirds low-income and three-quarters students of color. Slightly less than half of each group was male, and approximately two-fifths were English language learners. Around 40% of both groups had parents who had never attended college. Just under a third of both groups had at least one parent with a fouryear degree or higher. FIGURE 17: DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF 9th GRADE SAMPLE White Low-income Parents: High School or Less Parents: Two-Year Deg. Parents: Four-Year Deg. English Language Learner Special Education 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% MMSD Comparison Group 20

24 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Consistent with the selection process, students in the matched 9th grade sample came from the academic middle, with an average 3.0 cumulative GPA in sixth grade. Table 6 shows that overall, the students and their comparison group counterparts in our sample looked very similar to each other academically in the 6th grade in terms of their GPA, as well as their WKCE Reading and Math scores. All measures in Figure 17 and Table 6 were statistically equivalent between the two groups. TABLE 6: ACADEMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF 9TH GRADE SAMPLE MMSD Comparison Group Sixth Grade Cumulative GPA Sixth Grade Core GPA Sixth Grade Attendance Rate 96% 96% 96% Sixth Grade Behavior Events Sixth Grade WKCE Math Score Sixth Grade WKCE Reading Score

25 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Ninth-Grade s: Combined Cohort ( ) The impact estimates in this section are based on analyses combining three 9th grade cohorts: They thus represent the average impacts of middle school participation over a three-year period. 9 We find evidence that participation has had positive average effects on 9th grade academic achievement, school attendance, and credit accumulation over the past three years. We detail each of these findings below. Legend COMPARISON GROUP : Ninth-Grade Grade Point Average There is evidence of positive program impacts on 9th grade academic performance. On average, students who participated in middle school earned 9th grade cumulative and core GPAs over a tenth of a grade point higher than their peers (Figures 18 & 19). This positive effect was present across most subgroups, and was strongest among low-income students of color, where it reached approximately a fifth of a grade point. One exception was white participants who had similar average cumulative and core GPAs to their non- peers. Key Finding: students earned significantly higher cumulative and core 9th grade GPAs than their peers. FIGURE 18: NINTH-GRADE CUMULATIVE GPA BY MIDDLE SCHOOL PARTICIPATION AT THE 90% Cumulative GPA AT THE District Low-income White Low-income Our 9th grade impact estimates more strictly represent the effects of participation in the middle school program combined with the partial effects of participation in the /TOPS 9th grade program. 22

26 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend FIGURE 19: NINTH-GRADE CORE GPA BY MIDDLE SCHOOL PARTICIPATION 4.00 Core GPA COMPARISON GROUP District Low-income White Low-income AT THE 90% AT THE 23

27 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend COMPARISON GROUP : Ninth-Grade Attendance Estimates suggest that middle school participation increased 9th grade attendance while reducing the number of unexcused absent days. Ninth graders who participated in middle school had significantly fewer unexcused absent days and higher attendance rates in the 9th grade than their matched peers (Figures 20 & 21). This was true both at the district level where participants had approximately 1.5 fewer unexcused absent days on average than comparison group students, and across most subgroups where students had one to two fewer days absent. Key Finding: students had significantly higher attendance rates and fewer unexcused absent days in the 9th grade than their peers. FIGURE 20: NINTH-GRADE UNEXCUSED DAYS ABSENT BY MIDDLE SCHOOL PARTICIPATION 8 AT THE 90% AT THE Unexcused Days Absent District Low-income White Low-income FIGURE 21: NINTH-GRADE ATTENDANCE BY MIDDLE SCHOOL PARTICIPATION 100% % Attendance Rate 60% 40% 20% % 94% 94% District Low-income White Low-income 94% 94% 94% 96% 24

28 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend COMPARISON GROUP : Ninth-Grade Credit Accumulation There is evidence that middle school participation increased the number of credits earned in the 9th grade. middle school participants earned significantly more credits in the 9th grade than comparison group students (Figure 22). This difference was significant for all subgroups except white students and male students of color who nevertheless earned slightly more credits if they were participants. Middle school participants also failed significantly fewer courses during ninth grade than their comparison group counterparts (Figure 23). This difference, which amounted to about half a course on average, was significant at the district level and across all subgroups except white Key Finding: students earned significantly more credits and failed fewer courses in the 9th grade than their peers. students and male students of color. FIGURE 22: NINTH-GRADE EARNED CREDITS BY MIDDLE SCHOOL PARTICIPATION 8 AT THE 90% Earned Credits AT THE District Low-income White Low-income FIGURE 23: NINTH-GRADE FAILED COURSES BY MIDDLE SCHOOL PARTICIPATION Failed Courses District Low-income White Low-income

29 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Comparison of Annual 9th Grade s: 2014 to 2016 One objective of this report is to examine whether the effects of middle school participation on 9th grade outcomes have remained consistent over the past three years of program implementation. Here, we present program impact estimates for each of three 9th grade cohorts starting with the 2014 cohort, and ending with the 2016 cohort. We also note whether effects over the three-year period were statistically different from each other. In general, we found that program effects remained consistent during that period. We discuss general effect consistency for the district below. Interpreting Annual Effects Comparison Charts We illustrate annual comparisons of middle school effects on 9th grade outcomes using standard bar charts. In these charts, each colored bar represents the estimated program effect on a particular outcome in a given year. In Figure 24, for example, the effect of 0.11 in the first blue bar indicates that participants had an average cumulative GPA 0.11 grade points higher than their comparison group counterparts in Because these numbers are estimates calculated from a single sample of students, the line overlaying each bar represents the range of values where we can be confident the true population effect actually lies. If the line does not overlap the zero value on the left side of the chart (Y-axis), we can say that the estimate is significant (i.e. not zero) with confidence. 26

30 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT GPA Effects ( ) Estimates indicate that the program has had positive annual effects on cumulative and core GPA in the 9th grade (Figures 24 & 25). In 2014 and 2015, the effects were relatively small and did not reach statistical significance. In 2016, however, the effects on both cumulative and core GPA were larger, and were both significant. Nevertheless, FIGURE 24: EFFECTS ON CUMULATIVE GPA ( ) when we compared 2016 effects to those of prior years we found no significant difference that would allow us to say with confidence that actual program effects were indeed different from year to year. Key Finding: The program has had positive annual effects on ninth-grade cumulative and core GPA Cumulative GPA Effect FIGURE 25: EFFECTS ON CORE GPA ( ) Core GPA Effect

31 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Attendance Effects ( ) We also find evidence that the program has had positive effects on school attendance each year, though with some variation. Though positive, effects on attendance were relatively small and non-significant in both 2014 and 2015 (Figures 26 & 27). In 2016, the program effect appeared to increase, with students logging two and a half fewer unexcused days absent than their peers. That year, they also had an overall attendance rate more than a percentage point higher than similar non- students. When we statistically compared 2016 estimates to those of prior years, we found the difference in effects between 2014 and 2016 to be non-significant, but only marginally so (p=.06). This suggests Key Finding: The program has had positive annual effects on school attendance. that the program may have had somewhat larger effects in 2016 compared to those in FIGURE 26: EFFECTS ON UNEXCUSED DAYS ABSENT ( ) Unexcused Days Absent Effect FIGURE 27: EFFECTS ON ATTENDANCE RATE ( ) 3.00 Attendance Rate Effect

32 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Credit Accumulation Effects ( ) Finally, there is strong evidence that the program has had consistent positive effects on 9th grade credit accumulation over the past three years (Figures 28 & 29). who participated in middle school earned a third of a credit more on average in the ninth-grade than their matched non-program FIGURE 28: EFFECTS ON CREDITS EARNED ( ) counterparts. Further, they failed significantly fewer courses on average as 9th graders. In the case of both earned credits and failed courses, impacts were consistent between 2014 and Key Finding: The program has had consistent positive annual effects on credit accumulation. Ninth Grade Earned Credits Effect FIGURE 29: EFFECTS ON FAILED COURSES ( ) Ninth Grade Courses Failed Effect

33 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Ninth-Grade s: 2016 Cohort As we did with the 8th grade impacts, here we break out th grade impacts by demographic subgroup and high school feeder pattern. Our evaluation of the middle school program indicates that it has had significant positive average effects on 9th grade academic achievement school attendance, and credit accumulation. We also find evidence of positive program effects on ninth-grade ASPIRE math performance, but no similar effect on ASPIRE reading performance. We detail each of these findings below. Legend COMPARISON GROUP : Ninth-Grade Grade Point Average (2016) Among 9th graders in 2016, students who had participated in the middle school program earned significantly higher cumulative and core GPAs than their matched peers (Figures 30 & 31). This was true at the district level and across all focal subgroups except white students. Effects were particularly concentrated among low-income students of color, where middle school participation was associated with around a quarter of a GPA increase in the 9th grade. FIGURE 30: TH GRADE CUMULATIVE GPA BY PARTICIPATION 2016 Cohort Key Finding: who were in middle school had significantly higher achievement in the 9th grade than their peers AT THE 90% Cumulative GPA District Low-income White Low-income AT THE 30

34 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend FIGURE 31: th GRADE CORE GPA BY PARTICIPATION Core GPA COMPARISON GROUP District Low-income White Low-income AT THE 90% AT THE 31

35 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend : Ninth-Grade Attendance (2016) There is evidence that middle school participation had a positive effect on 9th grade attendance among students in the 2016 cohort. Ninth graders who participated in middle school had significantly fewer unexcused absent days about two and a half fewer days on average (Figure 32). They also had higher overall attendance rates than their matched peers (Figure 33). These patterns held true both at the district level, and across focal subgroups Cohort Key Finding: who were in middle school had significantly higher 9th grade attendance than their peers. COMPARISON GROUP FIGURE 32: th GRADE UNEXCUSED DAYS ABSENT BY PARTICIPATION 6 AT THE 90% Days Absent District Low-income White Low-income FIGURE 33: th GRADE ATTENDANCE BY PARTICIPATION AT THE Attendance 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 93% 93% 93% District Low-income White Low-income 94% 94% 93% 96% 94% 32

36 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend COMPARISON GROUP : Ninth-Grade Credit Accumulation (2016) Our estimates indicate that middle school participation led to more earned credits and fewer failed courses in the 9th grade. On average, this amounted to a fifth of a credit more for students, though with somewhat higher gains among low-income students and students of color (Figure 34). students also failed fewer courses as 9th graders than their nonprogram peers on average. Among lowincome students of color, this difference amounted to nearly a full course Cohort Key Finding: who were in middle school earned significantly more credits and failed fewer courses in the 9th grade than their peers. FIGURE 34: th GRADE EARNED CREDITS BY PARTICIPATION 7 AT THE 90% Earned Credits District Low-income White Low-income AT THE FIGURE 35: th GRADE FAILED COURSES BY PARTICIPATION Failed Courses District Low-income White Low-income

37 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Legend COMPARISON GROUP : Ninth-Grade ASPIRE Scores (2016) middle school participants earned significantly higher scores on the 9th grade ASPIRE math test than their matched peers. The effect at the district level amounted to just over a point on the test s unstandardized scale (Figure 36). For certain subgroups, the effect was considerably larger. Among male students of color, for example, participants scored more than two and a half points higher than their matched counterparts. However, we found no similar effect of program participation on ASPIRE reading test scores (Figure 37), where and comparison group students earned nearly the same scores Cohort Key Finding: who were in middle school scored significantly higher on the 9th grade ASPIRE math test than their peers. FIGURE 36: th GRADE ASPIRE MATH BY PARTICIPATION AT THE 90% AT THE ASPIRE Math FIGURE 37: th GRADE ASPIRE READING BY PARTICIPATION ASPIRE Reading District Low-income White Low-income District Low-income White Low-income

38 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Ninth-Grade s by High School Feeder Pattern (2016) Our examination of 9th grade impacts by high school feeder pattern revealed that district-level analyses obscured some important variation in effects (Table 7). In particular, we found that program effects on 9th grade attendance appeared to vary by feeder pattern. The strongest effects were observed among students from middle schools feeding into East High School and La Follette High School. from West High middle schools also experienced positive effects on 9th grade attendance, though there was little effect evident among students coming from Memorial High middle schools. Further, we found that the positive average program impacts on 9th grade credit accumulation were largely centered among students coming from middle schools feeding into West High School and East High School. This was true both in terms of earned credits and in terms of failed courses. Although program effects on cumulative and core GPA were not statistically significant at the feeder level as compared to those the district, they 2016 Cohort Key Finding: student gains in 9th grade attendance and earned credits differed considerably between high school feeder patterns. were nevertheless substantial at between a tenth and a quarter of a GPA. GPA effects were particularly concentrated among students coming from East, La Follette and West middle schools. TABLE 7: TH GRADE IMPACTS BY HIGH SCHOOL FEEDER PATTERN Outcome East Schools La Follette Schools Memorial Schools West Schools Comp. Comp. Comp. Comp. Cumulative GPA Core GPA Unexcused Absent Days Attendance Rate Earned Credits Failed Courses ASPIRE Math ASPIRE Reading Note: Bold indicates statistically significant difference (p<.05) 35

39 MIDDLE SCHOOL DISTRICT FINDINGS: FINAL REPORT Summary The results presented in this evaluation indicate that participation leads to modest positive gains in 8th grade academic performance and attendance. Over the course of the past four years of program implementation, 8th graders have earned significantly higher average GPAs than comparable non-participants. They have also been less likely to log unexcused absences a reduction of nearly a day overall. These findings persist across subgroups of interest and are somewhat stronger for low-income students and students of color. The results also indicate that participation in during the 8th grade helps students get on track academically for 9th grade. In each of the past three years, students who participated in earned higher 9th grade GPAs the subsequent year. They were also less likely to have unexcused absences during their freshman year, and tended to earn more credits on average than similar peers who did not participate in the middle school program. Annually, these impacts were not always large enough to reach statistical significance. However, when we estimated aggregate program impacts over the past three years, we found them to be highly significant, suggesting that the middle school program has had a net positive effect on the 9th grade academic success of participants during its existence. The Wisconsin HOPE Lab Mission The Wisconsin HOPE Lab was established in 2013 on the University of Wisconsin Madison campus to engage in translational research aimed at improving equitable outcomes in postsecondary education. The lab is housed in the School of Education and is led by Acting Director Dr. Jed Richardson. For more information, see L139 Education Building, 1000 Bascom Mall, Madison, WI School of Education, University of Wisconsin-Madison avid.org wiscape.wisc.edu

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