Predicting the Markets Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World
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1 Predicting the kets Chapter 2 Charts: April 2, 21 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist info@yardenibook.com Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-2 April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
3 Figure 1. TOTAL IMPORTS OF 7 COUNTRIES 1/1929-3/1933 (billion dollars, monthly) T Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 193. Source: League of Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 193, p Figure 2. US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: (27=, monthly) T B M P Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 193. B = Emergency Banking Act passed ch 9, M = k-to-market suspended June 193. P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 191. Source: Federal Reserve Board. 3 Page 1 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
4 Figure 3. US PRODUCER PRICES: (192=, monthly) Industrial Commodities Grains T B M P Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 193. B = Emergency Banking Act passed ch 9, M = k-to-market suspended June 193. P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 191. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: (192-19=, monthly, nsa) T B P Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 193. B = Emergency Banking Act passed ch 9, P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 191. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 2 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
5 6 Figure. US COMMERCIAL BANK DEPOSITS: (billion dollars, annually) Source: Census Bureau. 2 Figure 6. DEPOSITS OF SUSPENDED US COMMERCIAL BANKS: (million dollars, monthly) Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, September 1937, Table 13, p. 99. Page 3 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
6 Figure 7. US UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: (percent, annual) Unemployment Rates Nonfarm Employees* Civilian Labor Force** * Persons 1 years old and older. ** Persons 16 years old and older. Source: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial times to 197. Figure. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (daily) 3 T B M P Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 193. B = Emergency Banking Act passed ch 9, M = k-to-market suspended June 193. P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 191. Source: Haver Analytics. Page / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
7 2 1 Figure 9. REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: ANNUALLY (billion 1996 dollars) Source: Historical Statistics of the United States. 2 Figure 1. REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT: QUARTERLY (billion 1939 dollars, saar) Source: National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
8 1 Figure 11. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: (percent, sa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 6 Figure 12. TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLLS: (millions, sa, ratio scale) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Page 6 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
9 Figure 13. S&P STOCK PRICE INDEX (ratio scale) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (212=, ratio scale) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 7 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
10 7 6 Figure 1. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=, daily) C 7 6 / * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 21. Source: Commodity Research Bureau Figure 16. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, daily) C / Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 21. Source: Haver Analytics. Page / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
11 12 Figure 17. MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (local currency) /2 7 6 /2 6 C 3 China 2 2 Emerging kets Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 21. Source: MSCI Figure 1. CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION* (yearly percent change) C * Value added basis. Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 21. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Page 9 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
12 1. 1. Figure 19. CHINA: POPULATION (billions, ratio scale) Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. 2 Figure 2. CHINA: POPULATION (1-year change, millions) year growth rate at annualized rate Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. Page 1 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
13 9 Figure 21. CHINA: RURAL & URBAN POPULATION* (as a percent of total population) Rural Urban O C * Estimates through 21, projections from 216 through 2. Note: O = China announced Open Door Policy during December 197. C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 21. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 22. CHINA: URBAN POPULATION (yearly change, millions) RURAL POPULATION Source: United Nations. Page 11 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
14 Figure 23. EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent) D NIRP QE QEE Bond Yields France Germany Italy Spain Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President io Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6//21) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1/22/1) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/1/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. Source: Financial Times Figure 2. BRIC MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currency, daily) C / Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 21. Source: MSCI. Page 12 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
15 Figure 2. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (2=, swda*, ratio scale) Jan * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Figure 26. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (2=, swda*, ratio scale) Jan Industrial Production Advanced Economies Emerging Economies * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Page 13 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
16 1 1 Figure 27. OECD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (19=, sa, ratio scale) Dec Source: OECD Figure 2. WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME (2=, sa, ratio scale) Jan Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 3 Page 1 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
17 23 2 Figure 29. WORLD EXPORTS: VALUE (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa, ratio scale) Dec Source: IMF Figure 3. G7 EXPORTS (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Feb Source: Haver Analytics. 2. Page 1 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
18 6 Figure 31. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS 21 6 Dec 19 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) /23 17 Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. 7 6 Figure 32. WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD (percent of total world exports using 12-month averages) Rest of World Dec G Dec Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. 2 Page 16 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
19 7 6 Figure 33. PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: GLOBAL (sa) Global PMIs Composite Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Source: kit and Haver Analytics Figure 3. PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: ADVANCED ECONOMIES Advanced Economies PMIs Composite Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Source: kit and Haver Analytics. 9 Page 17 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
20 7 6 Figure 3. PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMERGING ECONOMIES Emerging Economies Composite Index Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Source: kit and Haver Analytics Figure 36. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS* Feb * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 1 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
21 13 Figure 37. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS* Feb US Europe Japan * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. 16 Figure 3. BRICs: LEADING INDICATORS* 16 1 Feb Brazil China India Russia * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Page 19 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
22 13 Figure 39. EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* & REAL GDP Real GDP (yearly percent change) Economic Sentiment Indicator* (long-term average=, sa) * The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight %), service (3%), consumer (2%), construction (%), and retail trade (%) confidence indicators. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities, European Commission, and Haver Analytics Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (21=, sa) Total Excluding Construction Manufacturing Feb Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. 7 Page 2 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
23 Figure 1. EURO ZONE RETAIL SALES VOLUMES EXCLUDING AUTOS & MOTOR CYCLES (21=) Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Feb Figure 2. GERMANY: IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX (2=, sa) Total Current Situation Index Expectations Index Source: Ifo Page 21 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
24 12 11 Figure 3. JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (21=) Feb Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry Figure. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions US dollars, saar) South Korea Taiwan Source: Haver Analytics Page 22 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
25 19 Figure. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE* (trillion yuan, saar, ratio scale) Total Exports Imports * Excluding Hong Kong. Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics Figure 6. CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC & IMPORTS PLUS EXPORTS Railways Freight Traffic ( million tons, nsa) Imports Plus Exports (billion yuan, saar) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs, and Haver Analytics. Page 23 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
26 2 Figure 7. US EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP (as a percent of nominal GDP) 2 1 Q Goods & Services Imports Exports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Figure. WORLD EXPORTS VOLUME & US REAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS + IMPORTS (yearly percent change) Feb Growth Rates (y/y) World Exports: Volume US Real Exports + Imports Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and Bureau of Economic Analysis. -3 Page 2 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
27 Figure 9. JAPAN: LIVE BIRTHS & DEATHS (12-month sum, millions) Live Births Deaths Nov Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. 1 Figure. US: REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 2 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
28 Figure 1. EUROZONE: PRIVATE SECTOR* LOANS OUTSTANDING AT MFIs** (trillion euros, sa) Total Private Sector Households (including non-profit institutions) Nonfinancial Corporations Others*** Feb * Total Private Sector includes Households (including non-profit institutions), Nonfinancial corporations, Other financial intermediaries, insurance corporations, and pension funds. ** Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money ket Funds (MMFs). *** Others include other financial intermediaries, insurance corporations, and pension funds. Source: Haver Analytics and ECB. 12 Figure 2. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION EXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION Feb 9 Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Source: Haver Analytics. 7 Page 26 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
29 2 Figure 3. CHINA: REAL GDP 2 2 yearly percent change quarterly percent change, saar Q Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics. Figure. 2 CHINA: BANK LOANS (trillions, nsa) 1 1 US dollars Yuan Source: People s Bank of China. Page 27 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
30 12 1 Figure. CHINA: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 6. GLOBAL POPULATION: YOUNGER CHILDREN & OLDER ADULTS (as a percent of total population) Age Under 6 & Older Source: United Nations, 213. Page 2 / April 2, 21 / Chapter 2 Charts: www.
31 Copyright (c) 21. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@
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